Key to Curbing Daesh Revival in Iraq And Syria Is A Coordinated Regional Strategy
By Seth J. Frantzman
June 19, 2020
Despite a resurgence by Daesh, the US is coming under increasing Iraqi pressure to withdraw forces from the country. US President Trump, who believes the terrorist group has been vanquished, seems disinclined to lead the effort to make sure it stays that way.
Image
Credit: SM Arshad/©Gulf News
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This
presents a challenge for the 82-member coalition Washington put together to
defeat IS after 2014: Can Operation Inherent Resolve, which was created to take
on the terrorist group in Iraq and Syria, remain resolute if the convening
power of the US is diminished?
The short
answer is yes. The key to curbing Daesh revival is not the size of the forces
on the ground, because local partners have proved increasingly competent, but
rather a coordinated regional strategy.
Overall
coalition troop numbers in Iraq are around 9,000. Some European countries have
temporarily withdrawn forces because of the coronavirus pandemic, and the US
has pulled out from smaller posts to consolidate and protect its units from
Iranian proxy attacks.
Strategic
Dialogue
Washington
and Baghdad are holding a strategic dialogue in the backdrop of continued of
US-Iran tensions, which spiked in January when an American drone attack killed
Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite
Quds Force, and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in January in Iraq.
There have
been several rocket attacks on bases housing American troops, carried out by
pro-Iranian groups, and Iraqi political parties backed by Tehran want US troops
out.
Coalition
authorities point to the vital role their aircraft and partner forces play in
hunting down and destroying terrorist cells. But without the US as the
coordinator of this effort, and without American military and intelligence
capabilities, this effort will likely falter.
The top
leadership of Operation Inherent Resolve is primarily American. Of the 82
members of the international coalition, fewer than half have made military
contributions over the past six years — whether to fight the terrorists or to
train locals to do the fighting. The US has more armed drones than all the
other members of the coalition combined.
Leaving
aside the question of boots on the ground and wings in the sky, the other
members of the coalition don’t all agree on the scope of the fight. Worse, many
of the countries and groups involved don’t get along with each other.
Turkey, for
instance, regards the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, as a terrorist group
in league with Kurdish separatists in Turkey. Kurdish forces in northern Iraq
have generally sour relations with the Iranian-backed militias that are part of
Baghdad’s security forces.
Feeding
Off the Power Vacuum
Daesh feeds
off these divisions, and is moving back into areas where there is a vacuum of
power. If the US were to withdraw from Iraq or Syria, the fight would likely
devolve into several smaller battles involving groups that don’t coordinate
with one another.
They would
fight Daesh locally with varying degrees of success, but the terrorists would
move back and forth across borders, much as al Qaeda and other groups have done
in Afghanistan and parts of Africa.
Keeping the
fight regional and the coalition united requires US leadership. American air
power and intelligence-gathering abilities are essential to tracking and
destroying Daesh operations. But Washington needs buy-in from Baghdad to keep
the effort going.
Reduced
American Footprint
The best
path forward — one that causes the least friction — may be to reduce the
American footprint on the ground in Iraq, while beefing up intelligence and
air-force assets based elsewhere.
Other
coalition partners taking up any slack. For instance, Denmark announced last
week that it will send some troops to non-combat training operations in Iraq.
NATO countries can backfill coalition posts at places or strategic importance,
like Camp Taji and Ayn al-Asad base.
Some
remaining American ground forces can be based in the autonomous Kurdistan
region of Iraq, where there is local support for them. US aircraft and drones
flying from locations in the Arabian Gulf and elsewhere in the region can keep
an eye on Daesh operations and carry out strikes to support raids by Iraqi
security forces.
Gen.
Kenneth McKenzie, head of the US Central Command, has said he can envisage a
future when local security forces are able to contain Daesh without significant
external help.
Until then,
the coalition should be prepared to play a major role — even with a reduced
American presence in Iraq.
Seth J.
Frantzman is a columnist and of ‘After Daesh: America, Iran and the Struggle
for the Middle East’
Original
Headline: The fight against Daesh must continue
Source: The Gulf News
URl: https://www.newageislam.com/radical-islamism-jihad/key-curbing-daesh-revival-iraq/d/122167