Freedom of Hate Speech By Faiza Habib: New Age Islam's Selection, 01 January 2018
New Age Islam Edit Bureau
01 January 2018
• Freedom of Hate Speech
By Faiza Habib
• Maw of Modernity
By Hajrah Mumtaz
• Sectarian Scourge
By Huma Yusuf
• LG Institutions in FATA
By Dr Raza Khan
• Transforming Punjab’s Economy
By Naveed Iftikhar
• Convergence of Pakistan, Afghanistan and China
By Farhat Asif
• Commend When Deserved
By Iftekhar A Khan
• Another Year
By Syed Talat Hussain
• A Critical Year for Democracy
By Umair Javed
Compiled By New Age Islam Edit Bureau
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Freedom of Hate Speech
By Faiza Habib
December 30, 2017
This year has shown Pakistan the true consequences of unrestrained hate speech. Despite existing legal framework to curb the sources of violence inducing expressions, lack of implementation has worsened the condition. Unsteady stance shown by the government on various occasions, including the Faizabad sit-in, has emboldened the instigators of hate speech. The rise in such events has also introduced us to the new level of power that mob vigilantes can exercise while acting on unverified information.
Allegations levelled by a national TV channel against Jibran Nasir on December 27th have once again brought to attention the use of hate speech as a tool for creating social, political and religious divides. Nasir clarified that the allegations are meant to prevent him from his active involvement in the Shahzaib Khan case. Earlier this year Amir Liaquat was banned for accusing Jibran Nasir of blasphemy in his programme aired on the same channel. The ban did not last long and the channel continued operations as usual, allowing the media outlet to conveniently repeat its compromised practices. Such display of lack of tolerance assures perpetrators of hate speech of their strength.
Hate speech is not just an action, it’s a cultural phenomenon deeply rooted in social prejudices that flourishes through individuals and groups who share their expressions without logically reflecting on them. In Pakistan, hate speech has become a means of levelling personal disputes by insinuating misconceptions mostly through electronic and digital media. Such cases are handled under the National Action Plan or the Prevention of Electronic Crime Bill. However, neither of the frameworks has described the complete scope of this malpractice. The ambiguity in the law enables hate mongers to curate their messages in ways that allow them leverage in the legal system, thus preventing obstruction of their operations, and safeguard them against any penalty.
Lack of holistic and inclusive laws regarding hate speech, and the absence of will to act on the government’s part have exposed Pakistani citizens to a serious threat that can engulf them any time anywhere without any reason. Lynching of Mashal Khan at Abdul Wali Khan University this July is an example of how unsafe people are due to the inefficient laws and their biased enforcement. Investigations in the case revealed vengeance to be the cause of murder instead of blasphemy. Capital punishment awarded to Taimoor Raza in June this year also happens to fall in the category of disputed cases where the accused may actually be the victim of hate speech itself. He was given death sentence by an Anti-Terrorism Court in Bahawalpur for expressing blasphemous views online, whereas his defence attorney questions the decision for being based on two unrelated sections of law.
Hatred in a society is a reflection of prevailing social injustice. Eliminating hate speech is not possible without addressing the inequality and prejudices. The inefficiencies of infrastructure and political discord in the country for decades have deprived many of stable living let alone a safe, harmonious and fulfilled life. In such scenarios, the deprived are targeted to act out the plans of those who wish to divide and conquer on the basis of their vulnerabilities. Hate speech enables such perpetrators to incite violence without so much as lifting a finger. Pakistan is fighting battles on every front, from regional terrorism to corruption and economic digression, letting the internal divides to deepen any further by ignoring the legal necessities is going to weaken the country even more. Revision and enforcement of revised laws is a matter of utmost importance, one that can promise safety and tolerance in the country and can prevent the likes of Faizabad scenarios to repeat in future.
Source: tribune.com.pk/story/1596137/1-freedom-hate-speech/
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Maw of Modernity
By Hajrah Mumtaz
January 01, 2018
A BRIGHT, cold winter’s day, the sky as cerulean blue and the air as sparklingly clear as you can only find in the mountains.
A couple of old men sit sheltering from the piercing wind in the lee of the stone wall of a two-roomed hut. The flint-coloured rock has been hewn by hand and shaped into roughly oblong-shaped chunks that fit together like a jigsaw. The men could be of any seniority, their faces having passed from the fresh-facedness of youth into leathery age in the way that is common in terrains where survival is tough and conditions harsh. Even so, their hooded eyes remain bright and their frames as upright as the pine trees that surround them.
From gnarled hand to hand, they pass a hookah, its water chortling with every draw. At the pair’s feet crackles a small fire built of the twigs and pine needles that can be found in abundance here, having fallen from high branches to be gathered and used without guilt. Nearby, leaning against the stone, stand two stout walking sticks, their curved handles carefully carved and their feet fitted with pointed metal cleats. The delicate craftsmanship apparent in these staffs is testimony to the fact that in this land, this is one of man’s most handy tools — a weapon of offence or defence against an unexpected wildcat or dog, a walking and climbing aid, a balancing point while crossing a stony brook or kassi, as these are called here.
Altogether, this scene, so striking in its lines, colours and stillness, is one that has been enacted and re-enacted over uncounted generations. Keep the frame of the picture narrow and it could be from anywhere over the past two centuries or more, the location itself anywhere from the mountain fastness of the Hindu Kush mountains to the Himalayan range. In pockets of these areas the local communities’ way of life has, even now, not changed all that much (which can be considered a positive or a negative, depending on how you look at it).
This is not the case, though, with the particular mountain slope that concerns me. As the old men contemplate whatever their inner thoughts are, the silence is broken by a loud, resounding thumping approaching from the distance. Coming closer, this piece of gracelessness reveals itself to be a large white Toyota Corolla traversing the metalled road that winds its way up the mountainside, glistening like a complacent python some 10 feet from the venerable ones by the fire.
The vehicle is navigating the tight bends much faster than is wise or safe whilst passing through a hamlet that has been bifurcated by ‘modernity’, and the thumping is the echo of the music blaring inside the car. As it sweeps by, a window opens briefly to let out a cloud of cigarette smoke and a pudgy hand that tosses a load of empty crisp, biscuit and candy wrappers on the berm. And then, in a whirlwind of dust, the car is gone, the thumping beats destined for the peak of this particular hillside which is already covered with trash and has been defaced by abysmal efforts at ‘landscaping’ and making the place ‘tourist-friendly’.
The old men stir not at all, their faces impassive and their dignity hardened and intact against the torrent of ‘development’ and ‘modernisation’. This is not the first such boorish vehicle to pass by, and nor will it be the last; it’s Christmas weekend and as expected, tourists have come in their thousands from as far afield as Faisalabad and Lahore to enjoy the pristine mountain delights offered by the New Murree hill station, a little over an hour’s drive from Islamabad along a spanking new expressway.
Modernity, as has often been observed, is a two-edged sword. The local populations here have arguably found increased avenues of earning plying taxis and wagons, selling chips and candy and chicken karahi to oily urban consumers. But it has come at the price of increased crime and substance abuse, the loss of the traditional, self-sustaining and eco-friendly lifestyle, a disconnect between those who came before and the ones who thirst above all else for the cash to buy a motorcycle. Communities here have literally had the carpet pulled out from under their feet, and reorientation will inevitably sever links with the past.
Before it’s all gone, a plea can be made for at least extensive academic and pictorial documentation of these hillsides. In the hardly distant future, these peri-urban areas are destined for tourism and housing schemes, hotels and hovels and paan shops. Murree Mall suffered these fate decades ago, and now there’s nothing left of that grace but memories and photographs in old books. Can those men by the stone wall be afforded dignity at least at the close?
Source: dawn.com/news/1379978/maw-of-modernity
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Sectarian Scourge
By Huma Yusuf
January 01, 2018
HAPPY New Year. Or is it? It is difficult to celebrate a fresh start when challenges are mounting on every front — political, social, economic, environmental, demographic. The multiplicity of issues, the 24/7 news cycle, the incessant chatter on social media — all these make it hard to focus on which problems to prioritise.
But events can sometimes clarify what’s really at stake. The recent attack by the militant Islamic State (IS) group on a Shia cultural centre and news agency in Kabul is a reminder of one of the greatest challenges for the region over the coming year and beyond: sectarianism. The attack highlights the resurgence in sectarian conflict in Afghanistan (while the Afghan Taliban may engage in sectarian violence, primarily against Hazaras, it does not persecute Shias as a defining policy).
The attack crystallises the need to tackle the scourge of sectarianism. Pakistan has already endured so much sectarian conflict that it is largely resigned to the persistence of such violence. But we have forgotten the 1990s, and we have not spent enough time considering how much worse it can get. Further inflaming sectarianism will irrevocably fragment society, making Pakistan weaker, more lawless and more violent. This internal security challenge arguably poses a greater threat than any external actor.
In the short term, increased IS activity will exacerbate poor Pak-Afghan relations. Prior to last year’s run of IS attacks, Kabul experienced a sectarian attack in 2011, which was claimed by a Lashkar-i-Jhangvi offshoot. At the time, the Hamid Karzai administration accused Pakistan of stoking sectarian conflict in Afghanistan to prolong instability there. Further IS activity can provoke similar accusations by the Ashraf Ghani administration, particularly in the context of the Pak-Afghan blame game. The allegations would be fuelled by reports that IS’s ranks include LJ fighters escaping the security crackdown against the group within Pakistan.
Further divisions are likely.
In addition to the diplomatic fallout with Kabul, Pakistan is likely to face a spillover effect of increased sectarianism in Afghanistan. Military, paramilitary and extrajudicial efforts against sectarian groups in Pakistan have over recent years weakened the LJ and reduced the frequency of sectarian violence. But the heightened activity of anti-Shia groups in Afghanistan could help them rally recruits and resources to be eventually (re)deployed in Pakistan.
Broader regional trends will also continue to intensify sectarianism. The Saudi-Iran rivalry is playing out through proxy groups in the Middle East and, increasingly, South Asia. It is perhaps only a matter of time before Pakistan sees a return to the sectarian proxy conflict that claimed hundreds of lives in the 1990s. Saudi support has already bolstered anti-Shia groups, but they have so far faced little resistance. This is likely to change over the coming years as Iran steps up its use of proxies in Pakistan. Pakistani Shias have been recruited since 2013 to fight in Syria; as the conflict there subsides these fighters are likely to return home, inflaming a sectarian battleground.
Recognising the pitfalls of deepening sectarian divides, Pakistan’s initial approach to the Middle Eastern power struggle was sensible: neutrality as exemplified in the parliamentary decision not to join the Saudi coalition attacking Yemen. But as our civilian government has weakened, so has that diplomatic posture. Ex army chief Raheel Sharif is the head of Saudi Arabia’s counterterrorism alliance, while the politician Sharif brothers have flocked to Riyadh recently, presumably to seek the kingdom’s help in reconciling with the establishment, and thereby ensuring a tighter Saudi stranglehold over our domestic affairs. As our financial challenges mount, aid from our Gulf ally could well be proffered in exchange for sovereignty.
Such a strong tilt towards Saudi Arabia would not be tenable for Pakistan, which would further shred the fabric of our diverse society, already fraying at sectarian and sub-sect levels. It doesn’t help that we have created an environment that is permissive for hate, whether through dharnas, prime-time television, or toxic and divisive parliamentary debate. Nor have we reviewed the blasphemy laws whose misuse lead to allegations being levelled against members of other sects or religious groups with often fatal consequences, eliminating all possibilities for inter- and intra-faith dialogue. In all this, schism, rather than faith or unity, is the overriding principle.
Looking forward, these divisions will prove increasingly deadly in a country facing severe resource shortages on all fronts — water, land, energy, employment. Sectarian identity may become the basis on which groups organise, mobilise and fight over resources, particularly in our fast-growing cities, where ethnic, linguistic and tribal identities are eroded. Is this the future we want for our country? A bleak thought on New Year’s day, but one we should consider as we make our resolutions, particularly on entering a year during which we’ll have some agency, through the ballot, to change course.
Source: dawn.com/news/1379979/sectarian-scourge
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LG Institutions in FATA
By Dr Raza Khan
December 31, 2017
While Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi has announced that the colonial-era legal framework for the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata), the Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR), would be repealed within days and a definite announcement of merging the tribal region with the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) province is also expected, the most important question of civilising and modernising the administration in the region through establishing local government institutions remains unanswered. It was after years of wait and see that in late 2016 the government of Pakistan had announced to have local government elections in Fata in 2017. The year has come to an end but no such elections have been held, which is indeed unfortunate.
Local government structures in seven tribal districts or agencies are critical for filling the political-administrative vacuum in the region. The very basic needs of residents of Fata cannot be taken care of and key social services to them cannot be ensured sans local government institutions. These institutions are also critically important for the commencement of true development process. Most importantly without local government structures in Fata the state writ in the region cannot be established let alone exercised. The military cannot be expected to remain in Fata interminably. Therefore, the government needs to establish self-governing modern administrative structures in Fata which is the lasting solution of the multipronged issues and conflict there.
It may be recalled that more than 10 years back the former military ruler General Pervez Musharraf and his governor for K-P, Lt General (retd) Iftikhar Hussain Shah had promised holding local government elections in Fata. The Musharraf regime had promised to form elected councils or assemblies in every tribal agency like district assemblies in the rest of Pakistan, which were established in the year 2001 through local government elections. Moreover, the regime had also hinted at forming an elected all-Fata assembly. Musharraf desisted from doing so as he feared that due to the extensive social influence of Muslim clerical parties in Fata their members would dominate the proposed tribal councils and Fata grand assembly. The general apprehended the district government might pass resolutions demanding putting an end to the US sponsored War on Terror (WoT) and may also demand enforcing Sharia. This could have been very much possible given the deep-rooted religious sentiments and anti-American feelings among the residents of the tribal areas.
There have also been administrative factors for not establishing elected assemblies in Fata. Had the assemblies been installed the affairs of local administration would have to be transferred to these assemblies. This would have weakened the political (read civil) administration, which functions under the draconian FCR laws. So the democratically-elected people would have engaged in a power struggle with the civil administration, which the government could ill-afford at that critical point of time when full fledge military operations were on in Fata to root out Taliban and al Qaeda networks.
Another factor which prevented the government for not installing elected assemblies in Fata has been the indeterminate constitutional and political status of the region, which has been serving as a de facto buffer between British India and Afghanistan and subsequently between Pakistan and Afghanistan. So Islamabad wanted to keep this status of tribal areas intact.
There might have been self-justified reasons for the government for not installing elected local assemblies in tribal agencies but they have not been the solution of the problem. The situation has been getting from bad to worse as the government with all its administrative paraphernalia of political administration, FCR and Maliki system, has been unable to manage Fata affairs. There have been fundamental changes in the last two decades in Fata. These include rapid increase in the local population and hence, their rising needs and issues, and the insurmountable pressure on the rudimentary state apparatus to respond to these needs and issues and the resultant rise of extremism and terrorism, especially due to the US launching the WoT in the region. Successful military offensives namely Zarb-e-Azb and Raddul Fasaad in Fata have significantly improved the security situation in the region and have created enabling milieu for putting in place local government institutions. The government should have put in place these structures long before repealing the FCR or taking decision to merge Fata with K-P as this would have provided a key administrative mechanism to manage the daily affairs. But though the government is late in establishing local government institutions in Fata it is better late than never.
Source: tribune.com.pk/story/1597004/6-lg-institutions-fata/
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Convergence of Pakistan, Afghanistan and China
By Farhat Asif
December 31, 2017
REGIONAL dynamics are changing with a fast pace. New initiatives including One Belt One Road (OBOR) and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are slowly and steadily transforming the economic, political and strategic outlook of the entire horizon. Recent Foreign Minister’s first ever moot between Afghanistan, Pakistan and China in Beijing is another such step in the direction to build synergies between the countries for the regional peace and security. With mounting presence of ISIS, terrorism and other non state actors, rise in the proxy wars amongst state are the source of tension and grievance for the ordinary people. Having high level of potential, the countries of the region have far less than the potential trade volume, hindering the growth and togetherness to the level that can be achieved but remained as distant dream till this day. Role of major power like China, has continued to remain based on dialogue, peaceful coexistence and inclusive.
China’s approach towards the region is to encourage countries to resolve their disputes in peaceful manner for future prosperity, develop trust especially to address the deadlock between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Keeping in view the ideals of President Xi-Jinping of peaceful co-existence, Beijing hosted the trilateral dialogue between the Foreign Ministers of Afghanistan, Pakistan and China early this week. China’s role has remained as a facilitator during these dialogue initiatives and it has always encouraged the states to discourse and argue subjects of convergences and divergences hence to move ahead with a common strategy of peace and prosperity for the entire region. China’s role has remained important in promoting the talks between the two “uneasy” neighbors having troublesome ties for the last seven decades. The main objective of this moot was also to develop a joint action plan for exchanging views and information related to development, connectivity, security, reconciliation process with Taliban and joint efforts for counter-terrorism.
During the summit, the important development that needs to be highlighted here is the case in point of including the Afghan Taliban in the mainstream dialogue process. As a result of the widening gap between Pakistan and Afghanistan during the past several months, this was a welcome move. Both sides were accusing each other for supporting the insurgent Taliban combating the US supported Kabul government, for a while. Afghanistan is accusing Pakistan for the support as to cordon the Indian influence in Afghanistan while Pakistan is blaming Afghanistan for not been able to put its house in order and cause of terrorism in the country. Both deny these blames while Pakistan reiterates the aim to see a stable Afghanistan in the larger interest of the region. Despite these blame games, to be honest with the region, Afghanistan needs to be looking inward in order to develop and improve the lives of its citizens. Afghanistan also need to improve its regional ties through engagement in the regional initiatives like CPEC, OBOR and BRI. On the other hand, role of China in mending fences between Pakistan and Afghanistan is appreciable. Another reason for bringing together Pakistan and Afghanistan on the table for dialogue is that China is also facing threats of its homegrown insurgency raising its head in the Xinxiang region. Bringing together Afghanistan and Pakistan is to improve the ties will help better tackle the emerging violence in the countries.
As a flagship project between Pakistan and China, the CPEC has remained the eye of the storm for India as it has always looked at the project with apprehensions. One of the reasons behind India’s criticism is that part of it runs through the Kashmir region and because of the illegal occupation of India and its tough headedness of seeing the prosperity coming to the Kashmir region wherein Pakistan is keeping it in the loop for sharing the development and connectivity initiatives connected to CPEC. India has remained putting such blames on Pakistan in the past and as a result of its political interests, will continue to do so in the future. However, China has given a befitting response to all the questions that CPEC has nothing to do with the territorial disputes and is only meant to improve the lives of the region which has already been marred with conflicts and menace like poverty.
Visionary Chinese leadership with OBOR, BRI and CPEC are building modern-day “ Silk Road” connecting the Chinese economy with the Southeast, Central Asia, Middle East , Europe and beyond through land and the sea. These connectivity projects will provide enough space for the countries to converge rather than diverge hence opportunities for resolving conflicts and disputes will improve. The development will be manifold and for all. China is a global economy with its massive outreach and benefits that Pakistan and Afghanistan can easily gain as a result of the close relations with the China as having geographical proximity. There is only need for both Afghanistan and Pakistan to put their house in order to ripe the fruits of the prosperity.
Source: pakobserver.net/convergence-pakistan-afghanistan-china/
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Commend When Deserved
By Iftekhar A Khan
December 31, 2017
The apex court finally gave a green signal for the Orange Line Metro Train project to proceed to its completion. The main objections raised by the detractors of the project were essentially on two counts. First, the project could cause damage to the heritage sites near its route and second, the amount involved in the project could have been utilised better than developing the train network. The 22-month long delay cost the national exchequer Rs50 billion — whopping loss for a poor nation.
The Supreme Court allowed the project to proceed on certain conditions. The project would be closely monitored for its vibration level. If it crossed the safe limits and the observers thought it could threaten the heritage sites, the project would be suspended. The heritage sites include Shalimar Gardens, Gulabi Bagh Gateway, Buddhu Ka Awa, Chauburji, Zebunnisa’s Tomb, Lakshmi Building, General Post Office, Aiwan-e-Auqaf, the Supreme Court’s Lahore registry building, St Andrews Presbyterian Church on Nabha Road and Baba Mauj Darya Bukhari shrine.
Have the lovers of heritage sites ever raised their voice at the dilapidated state of these sites? The neglect that the historic monuments suffer is visible to all who care to observe. For instance, Chauburji and some tombs don’t present an edifying scene as junkies and riffraff usually inhabit these sites. But the civil society activists, instead of pointing out the neglect the heritage sites suffer from, lament that more importance has been given to developing modern infrastructure for transportation over maintaining these sites. The critics had better given priority to meet the requirement of transportation of the burgeoning population of the urban centres over the historical sites.
The problem is that the civil society activists and environmentalists, critical of development projects like Metro train and earlier the Metro Bus service, belong to upper layer of the society. They own expensive cars and usually don’t drive themselves but are driven around in style. The Metro Bus and Orange Line train services cater to the travelling requirement of the lower segment of the society. Those who criticised the Metro Bus service and deridingly called it ‘jangla bus’ should now see how these buses swish along fully occupied, which shows the facility is being utilised to its carrying capacity. The rich and snobby should empathise with the commoners who face the daily ordeal of commuting back and forth from home to their place of work.
We should give the Punjab government credit where it deserves. For instance, Lahore-Multan motorway would be inaugurated in April 2018, four months before its stipulated time of completion. Thereafter, Peshawar would be connected with Multan by a motorway network. Simultaneously, development work on road between District Muzaffargarh to Ghazi Ghat Bridge over river Indus is underway round the clock. Once Lahore-Multan motorway completes, travel time from Lahore to far-flung District Dera Ghazi Khan will reduce from eight hours to merely five hours. The feeling of deprivation of the backward districts would be somewhat assuaged.
Similarly, Multan road from Thokar Niaz Baig to Hudiara Drain, a distance of about 10.7km is being developed into eight lanes, four lanes each for entering and exiting the provincial capital. Negotiating this short distance has always been arduous for all kind of traffic, especially the motorists trailing behind long-body oil containers, buses and trucks. Somehow driving into or out of our large cities has never been hassle free. Be it Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi or Peshawar.
Critics of Orange train and other development projects say the government is undertaking new ventures to win votes in the next elections. Aiming to win votes by developing projects that benefit the public at large is a good strategy. Had the PPP evolved this strategy in its last tenure in power, it wouldn’t have been washed out in 2013 elections. After all, when American, British and German ambassadors commend CM Punjab for his commitment to work, he must possess some qualities to deserve the praise. Imran Khan would do well to emulate Shehbaz Sharif’s passion for development, instead of calling him showbaz. Khan has frittered away the opportunity to act showbaz in K-P and develop it like Punjab. The nation needs more action less theatrics.
Source: tribune.com.pk/story/1596969/6-commend-when-deserved/
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Another Year
By Syed Talat Hussain
January 1, 2018
It is a new year. As is the wont, there is great interest in knowing how this will turn out to be for a country that has become predictable only in one thing: unpredictability. There are ways to satisfy this curiosity. We can focus on some critical trends that the previous years have set in motion, to at least point out with reasonable assuredness areas that can potentially define national life in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Five sectors – not necessarily in order of priority – have to be on the radar of attention of anyone breaking a sweat trying to get a sense of the future.
Terrorism: Domestic terror trends will impact the country the most, in more ways than one. Terrorism has ebbed and flowed in the recent past and the nation has heard dozens of times stories of hundred percent success against organised terror – and yet the previous year saw striking examples of successful terror attacks across Pakistan. While acknowledging that there are foreign agencies engineering some of the trouble at home, the range of terror activity cannot be explained away by overusing the conspiracy theory. If we say we are completely in control of the domestic situation then it must show in progress made to stem terrorist and suicide attacks in urban centres.
This country has been in a state of military operations of various kinds, names, sizes and scopes and with each hangs a tag of a “great success”. But every year turns out to be another challenge. It is difficult to see how 2018 can be different from the past, considering the justifications we have heard from the highest pedestals about the “international conspiracy to destabilise Pakistan.” It would be logical to brace for continuing waves of terrorism in the New Year – amidst self-serving chants of “well-done”.
Extremism: Be ready for a rise in extremism. Two streams can possibly feed into this rather dire scenario. One is the unshackling of the Barelvi mosque, madrasa, shrine and mullah on the national scene as a political ploy to chip away the N-League’s support base in Punjab, and the Deobandi reaction to this phenomenon. The second is the Saudi-Iran rivalry and the expanding battle for regional hegemony and strategic clout. The first trend will feed on the second through resources being poured in, and the backing of political forces that support these sectarian blocs in Pakistan. Politics might become a proxy for expressing violent sectarian conflicts and rivalries. Because 2018 is election year, very little could be done about this drift towards a widening sectarian rift.
As has been the experience elsewhere, such developments inevitably bring to the fore the more hardcore of the lot who couch themselves in the robes of democratic rights and privilege. Moderate sectarian elements (an oxymoron, I know) will be sidelined, leading to a hardening of postures across the country. This will impact institutions. For years, we have understated the extent to which key institutions have been enveloped by religious parochialism. The year 2018 can test how strong the veneer of that pretension is.
Politics: Politics will be bitter, jagged, rough and conflicted. Just because this is election year does not mean that polling activity will help get the poisonous steam out of the system, something that has almost asphyxiated this country. In fact because 2018 is election year, get ready for another long round of screaming, shouting and abusive matches. Imran Khan wants to be prime minister at all costs. So does Shahbaz Sharif. So does Bilawal Bhutto. Election results will be hotly contested and there will be roars and uproars of rigging and manipulation partly because of the stakes involved in winning and losing. The run-up to the election process itself will be hugely problematic. The most formidable of these obstacles will be the formation of a caretaker government that will supervise the elections. Bloody and bruising battles will be fought over every inch of the way to the polls.
Later, a weak coalition government or a government formed from a wafer-thin majority will be hardly in a position to cope with the turmoil’s hangover. From the way things stand today, it will be a great surprise if any party is able to build a strong lead over the other. Smaller parties can look forward to holding sway in the new assemblies. We may have the honour of having Khadim Hussain Rizvi (or anyone and many like him) in the assemblies and be treated to his inspirational speeches on Islam and fellow Muslims. The seedling broke through political soil in 2017, and 2018 is the year of bloom for it and others of its kind.
The army will remain supreme, calling the shots in all matters it deems fit to define its realm. The judiciary will see more divergence in its conduct as the constitutionalists and the populists in this august building pull their respective weights in opposite directions. The media will remain partly free and partly chained – free to indulge in trivia, and chained and restrained from taking up issues of substance.
Economy: The spending spree of governments in power in the provinces and at the centre throughout 2017 as political investment in the 2018 elections will cost the economy dearly. It will add to domestic borrowing in the year ahead and will push inflation up. The twin-deficits of fiscal and current account will hobble the economy and CPEC’s early harvest in the new year will not change the country’s reliance on borrowing to survive. Because of the introduction of a caretaker setup to supervise 2018 elections, the change-over will make economic decision-making even more stop-gap.
The economy’s capacity to generate employment, to re-distribute wealth among the country’s teeming millions of poor in some form of reliable sustenance and its capacity to innovate by use of technology will remain as challenged as it has been traditionally. The economy will remain a ‘percentage point economy’ – where marginal improvements are depicted through graphs as major breakthroughs. Without an overarching national economic vision (which the new setup will have to develop afresh in the presence of an inherited backlog of challenges), day-to-day management will remain the order of the day pretty much throughout the year.
Defence and foreign policy: While traditional trouble from Afghanistan and India will remain what it has been all along in the recent past, the biggest challenge will be the US policy of arm-twisting and coercion. The Trump Administration’s 2017 fist-in-velvet glove policy is most likely to become more blatant and threatening. Washington can have a misadventure inside Pakistan and it can most certainly run a vicious campaign against Islamabad at the global level to justify its bullying. This will test the resolve of the country’s decision-makers as mere words spoken from podiums in press conferences will not be enough to deal with the trouble that Washington can cause by using force. Washington will remain the most important concern in the New Year. So will be the Arab-Ajm rivalry. If 2017 is any guide, 2018 will see an expansion in this rivalry and our role as a neutral state (really?) will become untenable.
So all in all, 2018 looks like a year with more turbulence than stability, more challenges than solutions, more tension than calm. And in case you are wondering why the picture looks so grim, that is because a new year, in essence, is a changed number on a calendar. It does nothing to alter the consequences of the years gone by. The seeds you sow is the harvest you reap.
But for those wishing to stay blissfully happy despite the concerns cited above, here are a few options: watch TV morning shows, with their endless marriage ceremonies, fine finery, gaudy jewellery and gleeful guests. Or watch official press conferences. Both will give you an alternative to reality and you can then look forward to a great year.
Source: thenews.com.pk/print/263077-another-year
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A Critical Year for Democracy
By Umair Javed
January 01, 2018
THE much-delayed and agonised passage of the 24th Constitutional Amendment means that 2018 will most likely witness the third election of Pakistan’s ongoing phase of democratisation. While it is tiresome to talk about critical junctures in a country accustomed to hearing about them for 70 years, the importance of the upcoming polls cannot be understated.
Existing academic literature is in agreement on the significance of free and fair elections, followed by peaceful transfers of power, in making procedural democracy the ‘only game in town’. Some political scientists go further and posit that a minimum of two such transfers are required to reduce the likelihood of the system falling apart.
In 70 years of statehood to date, the 2013 polls remain Pakistan’s only moderately successful democratic transfer of power. I say moderately because while voter participation was the highest in nearly four decades and the incumbent (PPP) accepted the results immediately, reservations of one major party (PTI) partially delegitimised the process with a segment of the electorate. One outcome of this conflict, the new Elections Act, 2017, aims to address procedural shortcomings of the electoral system. This provides hope that at least some of the underlying flaws from past polls will not be present in 2018, paving the way for a fairer election.
Nevertheless, events from 2017 in particular have introduced new complications for the 2018 polls that go well beyond procedural disagreements. These challenges are now fairly apparent: the consensus over civilian-led continuity forged between the PML-N and the PPP in 2007 is increasingly irrelevant given how the composition of political actors has changed in the last five years. What matters more now are the stakes involved and the level of personalised bitterness between the PML-N and the PTI in Punjab, which raise the threat of election-related violence and subsequent de-legitimisation of results at a scale not seen since 1977.
The PML-N is not alone in facing a difficult future ahead of and beyond the 2018 polls.
Seasoned observers of Pakistani politics are in agreement that the level of polarisation between leaders of the two parties (and, consequently, their supporters) has raised the chances of a systemic breakdown in 2018. This risk is only likely to escalate in the months leading to the election, and its much-needed mitigation requires unprecedented maturity from both parties, which has not been forthcoming.
On the other hand, the disqualification of Nawaz Sharif also opens up a small and wholly inadvertent window of opportunity for democratic progress. Prior to the Panama Papers leak, the PML-N appeared to enjoy a position of unprecedented political strength for a civilian government. There were frequent predictions that the party was looking ahead to another five, if not 10, years in power at the centre, and at least two decades in Punjab, ultimately giving rise to complacency and a new kind of civilian authoritarianism.
Leaving aside the obvious shortcomings of political predictions, Nawaz Sharif’s exit from electoral politics has changed the landscape confronting his party by rendering it far more competitive. This has led to both a renewed push towards completing big-ticket infrastructure projects ahead of the election, and significantly increased the chances of that all-important second transfer of power, provided the PTI manages to win a plurality or a majority at the polls.
Finally, the 2018 election also marks a major turning point for the organisation and future of Pakistan’s weak political parties. Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification brought the back-burner issue of leadership transition in the PML-N to the front, leading to Shahbaz Sharif’s muted elevation as the party’s prime ministerial candidate. If he wins now, he’ll have a few years to remodel the party’s core personnel and future trajectory from a position of strength, thus ensuring its continuity over the next decade or so. On the other hand, a loss may bring back the risk of dissent and factionalism, especially among the next generation in the family, which would have to be dealt with if the party wishes to stage a comeback in another five years’ time.
The PML-N is not alone in facing a difficult future ahead of and beyond the 2018 polls. For the PTI, this election marks the second of two chances — the first being in 2013 — of obtaining power at the centre in its current shape. As I noted on these pages some time ago, all of its main rivals now have some mechanism to solve their hunt for future leadership. Whether it is the PPP’s categorical dynastic inheritance or the PML-N’s recent complicated familial transition, a blueprint is now in place for both at least in the short term. On the other hand, the PTI’s overt reliance on Imran Khan’s personality and powerful local candidates, and its repeated sidelining of core, ideologically motivated middle-class activists in actual party organisational work leaves it with no clear-cut mechanism. If the PTI manages a victory in 2018, it gives the party a few years to figure out an appropriate way to sustain itself in the future. Conversely, however, another loss at the polls will almost certainly expedite this problem of transition, as the chances of a 72-year-old leading the party in 2023 are (and, frankly, should be) slim.
Recent commentary has shed considerable attention on Pakistan’s systemic downslide in 2017, and the reassertion of the military and judiciary in the political sphere. These institutional tussles remind us of the fragility of the country’s political system, and the often transient nature of democratic gains made since 2007. However, despite all that has transpired, the system stumbles on and offers another chance in the shape of an on-schedule general election to move a few steps in the direction of normalcy and stability. Let’s see if Pakistan’s political elite can use this critical chance to consolidate progress of the last decade in as productive and peaceful a manner as possible.
Source: dawn.com/news/1379980/a-critical-year-for-democracy
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