Terror Can Be Beaten but Intelligence is the Key
By Richard Kemp
Jul 26, 2011
In Norway last week or Mumbai the week before, determined terrorists can always get through. After a continuous 30-year campaign, with the resources of the British armed forces, police and intelligence services ranged against it, the Irish Republican Army, in a province of only 1.6 million people, still pulled off some successful attacks, despite being heavily penetrated.
Terrorists don't succeed because they are necessarily good at what they do. Some are, such as Muhammad Atta's 9/11 attackers and the gruesomely effective Norwegian Anders Behring Breivik. Most are inept bunglers, often lacking adequate training or experience. The reason terrorism is the instrument of choice for those lacking an army but determined to impose their will on others through violence, or for states like Pakistan or Iran that want to inflict deniable damage, is that it is so hard to counter. Even in what is the most sophisticated and intensive security environment on the planet, commercial aviation, we see time and again how terrorists with a little low-tech ingenuity can circumvent multimillion-pound high-tech detection systems.
Intelligence is the king of counterterrorism. British intelligence underwent a steep learning process from 9/11 onwards, when the al-Qaida threat to the western world blasted starkly into focus. The 2005 London bombers got through; but many other plots were foiled as our intelligence services, often working with allies, got their teeth deeper and deeper into their new home-grown Islamist target. In 2009 and 2010 alone, 650 people were arrested in the UK on suspicion of terrorism; over 200 were charged - mostly as a result of good intelligence work.
British intelligence agencies are not perfect - far from it. But for us, intelligence is the highest priority counterterrorism activity. It must be for India too. The bureaucratic paralysis that has stalled the implementation of the National Intelligence Grid needs to be unlocked - and fast. One of the greatest failings in British intelligence that allowed the July 2005 attacks to succeed was inadequate IT. The planned Indian crime and criminal tracking network system will be critical if such failure is to be avoided.
These systems are extremely important in countering the complex terrorist threat that India will face in the next few years as events in Afghanistan and Pakistan unfold. But they only provide context, connectivity and coordination that allow the dots to be joined. These systems must be fed. What exactly do we need?
Not the anniversary of some independence day, a notorious terrorist's birthday or the knowledge that "they always attack on this date", about which we have heard so much since the recent multiple attacks in Mumbai. Such background information can only help trigger periods of so-called "increased alertness", which frankly should be ever-present in cities that live under the shadow of terrorism like Mumbai.
Instead what we need is precise point intelligence about individuals and their intentions, capabilities and locations that allow us to arrest, kill or otherwise disrupt them before they can attack. That is achieved by electronic interception of their communications and human agents penetrating their networks.
In the UK, as we have brought more and more terrorists to justice through the courts, some of our methods have become exposed. The enemy have learned ever-more sophisticated counter-intelligence techniques: evading surveillance, establishing cut-outs between cell members and more careful use of communications and identity documents. This means the need for intelligence operatives with discretion, commitment, creativity and powerful intellect. It also requires substantial investment in resources.
India must be unstinting in this investment. But however much effort and skill goes into such activities, the opaque, confusing, contradictory and uncertain nature of intelligence means there will always be failures.
That is why we need the belt-and-braces of a multi-layered defence against terrorism. Of the many counterterrorism measures that must be implemented in addition to intelligence work, i see two as being most critical.
First, deterrence. Time and again, experience in Britain and elsewhere around the globe shows that deterrent measures have directly prevented attacks. Sometimes deterrence will only delay attacks or displace them onto other targets. But lives can be saved if terrorists are denied their target of choice, and delay can buy vital time for dots to be joined.
Deterrence means effective and visible security measures that sow fear and doubt in the mind of the terrorist: that he will not be able to hit his target undetected; or that he might be killed or captured. Even the suicide terrorist fears capture and imprisonment. Deterrence means technical systems like scanners and metal detectors in the right place and working. But above all deterrence means highly alert, disciplined, competent, well-trained police and security guards.
Second, command and coordination. India needs a cabinet-level central government minister responsible exclusively for driving counterterrorism policy and implementation. Only by strong, top-level command will the counterterrorist resources of central and state governments be harnessed against terrorists. That other post-26/11 innovation, the National Counter Terrorism Centre, also paralysed by bureaucracy and vested interests, should be brought quickly on line. An instrument that gives focus and unity to the efforts of the plethora of national and state agencies dedicated to counterterrorism is urgently needed.
The writer, former head of UK terrorism intelligence and commander of British forces in Afghanistan, now looks after security in a major London financial district.
Source: The Times of India, New Delhi
URL: https://newageislam.com/war-terror/terror-be-beaten-intelligence-key/d/5116