Middle East Press on: Syria, Palestine, Lebanon, Assad, Netanyahu: New Age Islam's Selection, 13 December 2024
By New Age Islam Edit Desk
13 December 2024
Emergence Of The New Syria
Syria's Rebirth: A Swift Transition
After Palestine And Lebanon, Israel Extends Its Violations Of International Law To Syria
How Will Israel's New 2025 Tax Reforms Enhance Venture Capital?
Demoralised And Abandoned By Allies: Why Assad’s Army Failed To Fight In Syria
Developments In Syria Will Require Much More Than Toppling Assad
Netanyahu Never Misses An Opportunity To Miss An Opportunity For Peace
Lebanon Must Be Stable, United In Wake Of Assad’s Fall
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Emergence Of The New Syria
By Murat Yeşiltaş
Dec 13, 2024
The revolution in Syria has achieved its goal, but everything is just beginning. The primary goal of the revolution was to topple the Assad regime. For 13 years, it came very close to toppling the regime from time to time, but what could not be achieved in 13 years was realized in 12 days, and the 61-year-old Baathist regime collapsed. The one responsible for 13 years of tears and bloodshed had to flee the country and seek refuge in Russia.
Much will be written about the revolution; many stories will be told. But the most important thing is how the future of Syria will be built from now on. Many dynamics will shape Syria’s future.
Internal dynamics
In terms of internal dynamics, the rapid collapse of the regime constitutes an important starting point. Given that the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) played a leading role in the overthrow of the regime, the transitional administration will also be dominated by the HTS. The peaceful transfer of power to the opposition by Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Jalali, who remained the only symbolic representative of the regime in Damascus, ensured a relatively smooth start to the transition period. However, the top priority in Syria is to ensure security after the fall of the regime. To achieve full security, the military conflicts in the current controlled areas must be completely ended, and daily life must be made safe.
Given that the opposition controls more territory than it did during the revolution, ensuring security in Syria’s most populous cities, such as Damascus, Aleppo, Hama and Homs, is critical for the transition. However, in critical cities such as Daraa, Suveyda, Latakia and Tartous, the primary issue for building a smooth transition is establishing a sustainable security environment. Consensus on the formation of a civilian government and the continued functioning of state institutions is also critical to the stability of the transition. However, Israel’s growing appetite for the Golan Heights, the ambiguous behavior of the U.S.-backed opposition, and the YPG/PKK’s opportunistic approach raise the possibility of a resumption of military conflicts. Even though Iranian-backed militias have left Syria, the possibility that they have left behind asymmetric elements also points to the fragile nature of the security environment.
Another important point to be considered alongside security is that the transitional government should develop and implement an inclusive governance model for Syria’s political reconstruction process. It is clear that the HTS has transformed itself. However, there are still divergent views on many issues within the new administration. At this point, coordination and coexistence between different groups are crucial. The consensus between the Syrian interim government, the HTS, and other groups in the transition process will be the most critical issue in the reconstruction process. It does not seem possible for the PKK/YPG to continue with a territorial claim in this transition process. At a time when the support of the U.S. is vital, the PKK/YPG’s continued position on maximalist demands will cause the transition process in Syria to be painful in the northeast of Syria. Building inclusiveness to keep ethnic and sectarian diversity together should be an indispensable criterion for the new era in Syria.
Political arrangements, which have many topics, can only be discussed during the transition period on a stable ground. These include the structure of the state, new security sector arrangements, power sharing, building a political system and free elections. Syria can only enter a democratic and conflict-free period in which the territorial integrity of Syria will be ensured if arrangements are made for governance and state structure that is not tied to territorial zones. The reconstruction of the security sector is among the most critical issues. Military groups must dissolve themselves and restructure under an interim defense ministry to be established in the coming period to eliminate potential conflicts.
Regional dynamics
For regional actors, Türkiye’s role has become even more important. It is not possible to understand Türkiye’s role by focusing only on the last 12 days. Türkiye’s role can be more clearly understood by looking at the past 13 years. Ankara’s unwavering hosting of Syrian refugees, creating the military and diplomatic conditions to protect Idlib against the regime’s operations, and limiting and weakening the YPG, especially in the fight against terrorism, made a strong ground for the opposition’s 12-day success.
Türkiye has a much more critical role to play in the new process. Türkiye is likely to lead efforts to stabilize northern Syria, secure its borders, and facilitate the return of refugees. Ankara’s ability to mediate and rebuild trust between the incoming government and the different factions will also help shape the political character of Syria’s future. If Türkiye succeeds in preventing YPG/PKK separatism, it could emerge as a dominant stabilizing force in the region. Another priority for Türkiye is to implement a multilateral method to shape regional and global diplomacy and ensure Syria’s territorial integrity. Ankara will continue to coordinate with Moscow and Tehran, even though Russia and Iran are much weakened in Syria.
One of the most critical regional actors in Syria is Israel. However, it is doubtful how much Israel wants to remain loyal to Syria’s territorial integrity. The reasons for this are obvious. Israel is keeping a Damascus-centered geopolitical narrative alive and is considering expansion into Syria. The creation of a new military situation in the Golan Heights is the most obvious evidence of this. The new government, which Netanyahu securitizes with the so-called radicals argument, also provides Israel with new legitimacy. The U.S.’ open support for Israel’s possible engagement in Syria also strengthens the possibility of Israel becoming a destabilizing actor in Syria. The only option to balance Israel is to keep the regional diplomacy dynamic against a possible fait accompli.
Iran’s position in the new Syria is highly questionable. Iran is aware that it is weakening and losing its depth in Lebanon and Syria. The collapse of the Syrian front, the most important pillar of the proxy doctrine based on territorial expansion and territorial control, may lead Iran to turn to asymmetric elements in Syria. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's framing of the opposition’s success as part of the U.S. and Israeli support is the most important sign of this.
It is clear that there is confusion in the Arab countries. It is understood that they will accept the new status quo even if they are not happy with the overthrow of the regime. The critical issue is to develop a new relationship model with Damascus to support the transition process and be part of the process to build a sustainable order in Syria. The way to do this is to work together with Türkiye to put maximum effort into building a stable Syria. At this point, the creation of a new diplomatic platform could be the first step toward coordination.
International dynamics
In the new era, the U.S. priorities in Syria include Israel’s security, the continued existence of the PKK/YPG and the fight against Daesh. The weakening influence of Russia and Iran may make it easier for the U.S. to accept the new status quo and cooperate with it. The current balance on the ground may also facilitate U.S. President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from Syria. Considering that the pre-Nov. 27 plans and possible scenarios no longer have any meaning for the Washington administration, we can say that the new Syria will not be seen as a priority for the U.S. in the Middle East. Still, it is worth being cautious. There are many opportunities for Türkiye and the U.S. to build a new Syria without the PKK/YPG. It is almost impossible for a strategy built on the PKK/YPG to work in the new Syria.
It is also clear that Russia is in the midst of a reassessment in Syria. Moscow has had to revise its priorities while analyzing the causes of the new situation. Russia will not have the same position in the new Syria as before, and the smartest approach is to focus on the political process and establish relations with the new administration. It is very likely to use U.N. Resolution 2254 and the Astana format to increase its diplomatic depth.
New era
The new Syria is one of the biggest geopolitical ruptures of the Arab Spring. The revolution has achieved its primary objective but establishing a new order in Syria is fraught with challenges. The lessons of Libya, Egypt, Yemen and Tunisia are fraught with political and social tragedy. Tunisia and Egypt chose to continue by building new authoritarianism on institutionalized systems. Yemen and Libya were not able to exit the process of political and military conflict over non-institutionalized structures, nor were they able to establish an order. Syria is an exception. It was a regime with a long civil war and a very different practice of institutionalization.
If those who succeeded in the revolution build a sustainable model and establish a new order in Syria, the new Syria has the opportunity to produce new results in the geopolitics of the Middle East. The only way to do this is to build a just, democratic and sustainable order. There is no model for this yet. And it will not be easy to build it.
https://www.dailysabah.com/opinion/columns/emergence-of-the-new-syria
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Syria's Rebirth: A Swift Transition
By Melih Altinok
Dec 12, 2024
Thirteen years of Bashar Assad's dictatorship toppled in 13 days. Former Syrian regime leader Assad is a refugee in Moscow now. Millions of Syrians scattered across the world due to the civil war are planning to return home.
Everything happened very fast, but the images from the field show that there is no chaos in the country. We are not witnessing in Syria the atrocities that took place in Iraq or Libya after they overthrew their dictators. All minorities are safe, including Christians. Trade is already booming.
Those who have taken power are signaling that they will handle the transition with maturity. Official state records are carefully guarded. Soldiers and police officers have been granted amnesty. They have been told to leave their weapons and vehicles and return home. A large-scale witch-hunt against the bureaucracy is also not expected.
If the pieces fall into place in Syria, Iran's region-stirring influence activities could be weakened and Tehran could retreat into its shell for at least the next four years. This is a welcome development for the Iranian people, whose resources are being wasted on sectarian politics. This setback will also contribute to Iraq's independence from Tehran's domination.
Russia, which is in Syria for its military bases in the Mediterranean port of Tartus, is also a loser like Iran. However, if Russian President Vladimir Putin does not lose his cool, he can establish relations with the new administration through Türkiye and protect its gains, even if only partially.
The U.S. President Joe Biden's administration, which functioned as only a transitional government in the U.S., allowed Assad to be toppled by not preventing the opposition's advance. They also continue to legitimize the YPG presence in northern Syria with the myth of Daesh. However, President-elect Donald Trump, who will assume the presidency in January, is not the kind of man who says, “Obama founded Daesh.” It will be difficult for the YPG to dazzle Trump with the fairy tale of “we are the secular power of the region” as it did with the previous administration. The new president will likely look for less costly partners to fulfill the YPG's function.
For the moment, the only obstacle to the rapid normalization of Syria is Israel, which struck Damascus as soon as Assad fled. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to take advantage of the chaos before Trump takes office to expand the Israeli occupation of the Golan Heights. It has already taken control of strategic points. It is striking Syria's military infrastructure. It seizes the opportunity to destroy the potential of Damascus and pose a threat to it.
The picture emerging in Syria is undoubtedly positive for Türkiye, which has been bearing the brunt of instability in its neighbours since the Gulf War. In fact, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's position in the process is also a great advantage for the Western bloc.
I think that Trump will see this situation and have a closer relationship with Türkiye in Syria in the coming period.
The European Union, which was paranoid about Türkiye's solution of a safe zone in northern Syria at the beginning of the civil war and then blamed the refugee problem on Türkiye, seems to have wised up. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced earlier this week that she would visit Türkiye for talks with Erdoğan.
Syria's biggest chance in the new era is that it is neighbouring Türkiye, the only actor that has insisted on Syria's territorial integrity since day one.
https://www.dailysabah.com/opinion/columns/syrias-rebirth-a-swift-transition
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After Palestine And Lebanon, Israel Extends Its Violations Of International Law To Syria
By Selman Aksunger
December 12, 2024
Israel’s occupation and air strikes in Syria in the wake of the fall of the Assad regime violate international law and are part of a broader pattern of ongoing violations in Palestine and Lebanon, according to a scholar of Middle East history. Assal Rad told Anadolu that Israel’s recent operations in Syria reflect its decades-long contemptuous approach to international law, pointing to parallels with its policies in Palestinian territories.
“What we’ve seen Israel do is immediately exploit the fact that Syria is going through this upheaval, a moment of transition and rupture, which creates some instability,” explained Rad. “It’s a time where Syrians themselves are trying to assess the situation, make sure that the nation state itself doesn’t collapse, that all of the procedures of the state continue.” She argued that Israel’s policies in the Golan Heights mirror its occupation of Palestinian land.
“You have to understand it within that context because the mentality of the Israeli nation-state is that it can freely occupy these territories that are clearly designated under international law as territories — whether it’s the Gaza Strip, West Bank and East Jerusalem — that belong to the Palestinian people, or the Golan Heights, which has also been occupied for decades, which belong to Syria.”
Israel continues its occupation of these areas, she added, without facing international accountability. “Israel has continued to carry out this decades-long occupation of all of these territories because essentially it faces no consequences in terms of international law or consequences because of its patronage by the United States, which makes sure that there is no accountability for Israel’s actions.”
Rad criticised Israel’s justification for its actions in Syria, calling it legally baseless. “It’s interesting if you listen to what Israeli officials are saying. They’re arguing that they need a “sterile” buffer zone for the existing buffer zone, because the Golan Heights is in fact Syrian territory itself. It’s the same language and pattern of conquest that’s been going on for decades.”
The settler-colonial state occupied most of the Golan Heights during the 1967 Middle East war and, in a move never recognised by the international community, later annexed the territory. In 1974, a disengagement agreement between Israel and Syria established a buffer zone and demilitarised area.
The scholar decried the policies of Israel’s current government, calling it “the most right-wing nationalist government in an already ethnonationalist state.” She cited comments by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Cabinet ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, who have openly discussed annexing the West Bank.
“This is something that, within the Israeli state, you actually have commentators, officials within the state, leaders of what they call settler movements, who are talking about the fact that they will settle all of these lands, including land in Syria, not to mention the public sort of discourse that you see within Israeli society,” said Rad.
She stressed the importance of respecting international law and rejected attempts to reinterpret it for political gain. “The ideas of sovereignty and territorial integrity are the basic components of international law. And that is not something that Israel or the United States for that matter can rewrite because they are not based on the will or the interpretations of individual nation states, but the consensus of an international community. Syria’s sovereignty, like that of Lebanon and every other country in the region, as well as, by the way, the occupied Palestinian territories, which are recognised internationally as belonging to the Palestinian people. All of that is enshrined in international law.”
Israel’s moves in Syria come in the wake of the ouster of Bashar Al-Assad, Syria’s leader for nearly 25 years, fleeing to Russia after anti-regime groups took control of Damascus on Sunday, ending the Baath Party’s rule since 1963.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241212-after-palestine-and-lebanon-israel-extends-its-violations-of-international-law-to-syria/
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How Will Israel's New 2025 Tax Reforms Enhance Venture Capital?
By Ofir Levy, Ofir Paz
December 12, 2024
Israel is set to introduce in the 2025 budget a comprehensive package of tax reforms designed to enhance the attractiveness of its venture capital and private equity ecosystem.
The proposed legislation aims to simplify tax procedures, provide greater certainty for investors, and maintain Israel's competitive edge in the global innovation landscape.
The draft bill proposes significant changes to how venture capital and private equity funds are taxed, focusing on streamlining approvals and reducing bureaucratic obstacles.
Currently, tax benefits for these funds are granted through preliminary approvals, a process that will now be replaced with more permanent legislative provisions.
A key feature of the proposed reforms is a new framework for the Israeli Minister of Finance to establish clear conditions for tax exemptions and reductions for foreign investors.
When making these determinations, the Minister will be required to consider multiple factors, including the economic utility of investments, risk levels, the investor's home country's tax regime, potential state revenue implications, and safeguards against tax avoidance.
For Israeli partners managing investment funds, the bill introduces a reduced income tax rate of 32% on "success fees" - typically earned when a portfolio company is sold at a profit exceeding a predetermined threshold.
These success fees, defined as a partner's share of investment profits not directly tied to their financial investment, will now benefit from more favorable tax treatment.
The proposed legislation also includes innovative VAT reforms. These include implementing zero-rate VAT on management fees for Israeli fund managers, calculated proportionally to the share of foreign investors in the fund, and providing VAT exemptions on success fees received by Israeli partners managing funds.
An additional significant provision addresses the tax classification of partnership income.
What would the new bill allow for?
The new bill would allow for a more flexible classification of investment income, potentially enabling certain earnings to be treated as passive income, such as capital gains, interest, or dividends, rather than business income, thus reducing its tax liability.
Perhaps most notably, the reforms include enhanced protections for foreign investors. The proposed changes would ensure that foreign investors can continue to enjoy capital gains tax exemptions when selling shares in Israeli companies, even if they maintain a permanent establishment in Israel.
These proposed reforms represent a strategic effort to reinforce Israel's position as a global innovation and investment destination.
By reducing administrative barriers and providing a clearer, more attractive tax framework, the government aims to continue attracting foreign investment in the country's dynamic tech and startup ecosystem.
The proposed changes are part of the 2025 Economic Arrangements Bill and will require final legislative approval before becoming law.
They signal a continued commitment in Israel to supporting and expanding Israel's reputation as a leading hub for technological innovation and investment.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-833133
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Demoralised And Abandoned By Allies: Why Assad’s Army Failed To Fight In Syria
December 12, 2024
Twenty-three-year-old Syrian military conscript, Farhan Al-Khouli, was badly paid and demoralised. His army outpost in scrubland near the rebel-held city of Idlib should have had nine soldiers but it just had three, after some had bribed the commanding officers to escape serving, he said.
And, of the two conscripts with him, one was regarded by his superiors as mentally unfit and not trusted with a gun, Khouli said.
For years, the Islamist rebels of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) had sat behind the nearby frontline, with Syria’s long civil war frozen. But, on Wednesday, 27 November, Khouli’s commanding officer – at another post behind the frontlines – called his mobile phone to tell him a rebel convoy was heading his way.
The officer said the unit should stand its ground and fight.
Instead, Khouli put his phone on airplane mode, changed into civilian clothes, dropped his rifle and fled. As he walked along the road back south, other groups of soldiers were abandoning their posts, too.
“I looked back and saw everyone walking behind me. When they saw one person flee, everyone started to toss their weapons and run,” he told Reuters this week in Damascus, where he has found work at a horse stable.
In a little less than two weeks, the rebels would sweep into the capital, Damascus, toppling former President, Bashar Al-Assad, as his army simply melted away. The rout abruptly ended a 13-year conflict that had killed hundreds of thousands of people.
Reuters spoke to a dozen sources, including two Syrian army deserters, three senior Syrian officers, two Iraqi militia commanders working with the Syrian army, a Syrian security source and a source familiar with the thinking of Lebanese group, Hezbollah, one of Assad’s main military allies.
The sources, along with intelligence documents Reuters found in an abandoned military office in the capital, painted a detailed picture of how Assad’s once-feared army had been hollowed out by the demoralisation of troops, heavy reliance on foreign allies, particularly for the command structure, and growing anger across the ranks at rampant corruption.
Most of the sources asked not to be named because they were not authorised to talk to media or feared retribution.
Since the war began in 2011, Assad’s army command had come to depend on allied Iranian and Iran-funded Lebanese and Iraqi forces to provide the best fighting units in Syria, all the senior sources said.
Crucially, much of the Syrian military’s operational command structure was run by Iranian military advisors and their militia allies, they said.
But many of the Iranian military advisers had left this spring after Israeli air strikes on Damascus, and the rest departed last week, said the Iraqi militia commanders, who worked alongside them.
Hezbollah fighters and commanders had already mostly left in October to focus on the escalating war in Lebanon with Israel, the source familiar with Hezbollah thinking said.
The Syrian army’s own central command and control centre no longer functioned well after the Iranian and Hezbollah officers left and the military lacked a defence strategy, particularly for Syria’s second city of Aleppo, a Syrian colonel, two Syrian security sources and a Lebanese security source familiar with the Syrian military said.
By contrast, rebels in the north-west, on paper numerically far weaker than the army, had spent years consolidating under a single operations room that coordinated their groups and units in battle, an International Crisis Group report said after the fall of Aleppo.
Reuters was unable to contact a current representative of the armed forces. Syria’s new most powerful figure, HTS chief Ahmad Al-Sharaa, told Reuters on Wednesday he would dissolve Syria’s security forces. Iran’s mission to the United Nations, the Iraqi militias and Hezbollah did not respond to requests for comment.
Aleppo
As Aleppo came under attack in late November, army units were not given a clear plan but were told to work it out for themselves or to fall back to the strategic city of Homs to try to regroup, two Syrian security sources said.
Aleppo fell without a major fight on 29 November, just two days after the offensive began, sending shockwaves through the military, three senior Syrian officers said.
What was left on the ground was a Syrian army severely lacking in cohesion, all the sources said, describing multiple units that were undermanned because officers were accepting bribes to let soldiers off duty, or had told soldiers to go home and were collecting their salaries themselves.
In 2020, the army had 130,000 personnel, according to think tank IISS’ Military Balance report, describing it as significantly depleted by the long civil war and transformed into an irregularly structured, militia-style organisation focused on internal security.
In the days ahead of the regime’s collapse on Sunday, the United States had information of broad levels of desertions and military forces changing sides, as well as some elements fleeing to Iraq, a US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said.
Reuters could not establish the overall manpower shortage in the military or current force strength.
The Syrian army sources described officers and troops alike as demoralised by pay that was consistently low even after painful military victories earlier in the war and by reports, which Reuters could not verify, that Assad’s close family were growing immensely rich.
On 28 November, the General Command of the Army and Armed Forces issued a telegram, ordering all troops to be on full combat readiness, according to a military document found by Reuters at an Air Intelligence office in Damascus.
In a sign the regime was desperate, Syria’s Air Intelligence Directorate, a key agency close to the Assad family, accused its men of “laxity” at checkpoints throughout the country after one was over-run by rebels in the south on 1 December, and warned of punishment “without leniency” if they did not fight, the document seen by Reuters shows.
Despite the orders and threats, increasing numbers of soldiers and officers began to desert, all the sources said.
Instead of confronting the rebels, or even unarmed protesters, soldiers were seen by residents of Syrian cities, and in many videos that began circulating online, abandoning their posts, changing into civilian clothes and going home.
Reuters journalists entering Syria on Sunday found army uniforms still strewn across Damascus streets.
Officers
The corruption and poor morale went up through the ranks.
Many mid-ranking officers had been growing increasingly angry in recent years that the army’s sacrifices and successes during the war were not reflected in better pay, conditions and resources, two serving, one recently retired and one defected officer said.
In 2020, Russia and Turkiye agreed a deal that froze the frontlines, after Assad retook all major cities and the main highway linking Damascus to Aleppo, further partitioning a country also split by Kurdish-controlled areas.
But Syria’s economy continued to reel from US sanctions and reduced foreign aid, said Aron Lund, a fellow at Middle East-focused think tank, Century International. Rampant inflation ensued.
“Things just got worse for everyone, except for the oligarchs and elites around Assad. That seems to have been incredibly demoralising,” Lund said.
While decrees in 2021 roughly doubled military salaries to keep up with inflation that topped 100 per cent that year, buying power rapidly fell anyway as the Syrian pound crashed against the dollar.
Col. Makhlouf Makhlouf, who served in an engineering brigade, said that if anybody complained about corruption they were called in for questioning at a military court – something that had happened to him more than once.
“We were living in a scary society. We were afraid to say a word,” Makhlouf said. He had been stationed in Hama but deserted before the city fell to the rebels on 5 December, he said in an interview in Aleppo on Tuesday.
Anger had been building particularly over the past year or so, a serving senior military intelligence officer said, saying there was “growing resentment against Assad”, including among core high-ranking supporters from his Alawite minority community.
Years of decay
Khouli’s military experience illustrated the army’s problems – and helps explain his lack of loyalty.
He was drafted for the obligatory 18-month service at age 19, after having paid-off an officer to delay his service for a year.
When his service period expired, he was ordered to remain in the army indefinitely. He deserted but was later picked up by a patrol, put in prison for 52 days and then sent to the remote outpost near Idlib.
He was paid 500,000 Syrian pounds ($40) a month. Army rations were often pillaged before arriving. Sometimes his entire pay went on buying more food, he said.
Comrades with money would pay officers $100, which he lacked, to get out of service, Khouli said. Khouli’s brigade was supposed to have 80 soldiers, but in fact there were only 60, he said.
He described bad treatment from officers, including being assigned heavy manual labour digging earth berms in both very hot and very cold weather and during nights.
Reuters was not able to verify independently the details of his experiences.
One former Major described the use of forced conscripts as a “fatal mistake”.
A former army logistics serviceman, Zuhair, 28, said in an interview in Damascus on Tuesday he had seen officers steal and sell electricity generators and fuel. “All they cared about was using their positions to enrich themselves,” he said.
He had fought for Assad for years but he had cousins among the rebels and when they advanced, he cheered, he said. “I don’t know how to describe how happy I am,” he said.
Reliance on allies
To fight back the earlier opposition uprising, which began with protests in 2011, Assad relied on allies. Russia sent jets that bombed rebel positions; Iran sent military advisers and fighters from Hezbollah. Militias from Iraq and another group it formed from Afghan Shia fighters also came.
Their fighting skill and well-being contrasted with Syria’s own soldiers. An Iraqi militia commander serving near Aleppo said he knew of a Syrian platoon meant to consist of 30 soldiers that had only eight present.
The militia often invited those soldiers to eat with them out of pity at the poor condition of their rations, the commander said.
Hezbollah and allied militias regarded the regular Syrian forces with little more than contempt, the Iraqi militia commanders and a source familiar with Hezbollah thinking said.
They did not trust them for important operations and often would not fight alongside them, those sources added.
7 October Hamas attacks
Iran’s presence in Syria was curtailed in the months following the attack on Israel by Hamas on 7 October, 2023, the Iraqi militia commander based near Aleppo and an Iraqi military adviser based in Damascus said.
Israel’s response to Hamas’ incursion included escalating strikes on Iran-linked targets, including in Syria.
On 1 April, a strike killed top commanders from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards at a building in an Iranian consular compound in Damascus. Israel has not confirmed or denied responsibility for the strike.
The Iraqi sources both said the number of Revolutionary Guards commanders present in Syria dropped significantly after that. One said Syria’s military operations command became ineffective as a result, a situation exacerbated by the withdrawal of Hezbollah in October.
Russia conducted air strikes on rebels as they advanced on Hama and Homs, both sides said at the time but, unlike in earlier phases of the war, there were no effective ground forces able to benefit.
By Saturday, 7 December, Russia was calling for a political transition. The Kremlin and Russia Foreign Ministry declined to comment for this story. Russia, the Kremlin said on Tuesday, had “spent a lot of effort” to help Assad during the civil war but the situation had then deteriorated.
In Aleppo, Syrian forces had relied on Hezbollah to provide operational command, an Alawite Syrian army colonel said. Without Iranian advisers or Hezbollah, the army could not hold onto territory near the city, the colonel, the Iraqi commander and the Iraqi adviser said.
Iraqi militias sent more fighters to Syria last week, but they found all the contact channels to Iranian military advisors had been cut, the Iraqi commander said.
On Friday, after rebels had taken the city of Hama, the Iraqi groups were told to leave, he said.
“The battle for Syria was lost from day one,” the Iraqi military adviser added.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241212-demoralised-and-abandoned-by-allies-why-assads-army-failed-to-fight-in-syria/
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Developments In Syria Will Require Much More Than Toppling Assad
By Mamdouh Al-Wali
December 12, 2024
After 54 years of the Assad dynasty’s rule in Syria, the regime fell on 8 December after an opposition advance that lasted just 11 days. The Assad regime was infamous for its oppression, tyranny, executions, torture and killing its own people. We know that the opposition forces benefited from the decline of Hezbollah’s influence; Iran’s desire to calm things down with Trump due to return to the White House; Russia’s preoccupation with its war in Ukraine; NATO’s desire to distance Russia from its Syrian base on the Mediterranean; Turkiye’s desire to secure its southern borders; and Israel’s efforts to punish Assad for facilitating Iranian weapons getting to Hezbollah. However, there are other factors that have not yet been revealed in this swift and unexpected development and Assad’s flight to Moscow.
The new reality in Syria is important, as we see the liberation of an Arab nation from tyranny, which demonstrates that the democratic solution is always less costly for the people. If the Syrian regime had responded to the opposition peacefully 13 years ago, it would have been possible to avoid the destruction that has befallen Syria since 2011. Millions of people have been displaced unnecessarily, within the country and as refugees abroad. Foreign powers have interfered in their own interests, from the Gulf and elsewhere. Syria has been divided: 63 per cent of the land was controlled by the Assad regime; 26 per cent is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces, which are predominantly Kurdish and supported by the US; and 11 per cent is controlled by the Free Syrian Army forces supported by Turkiye.
We have seen Arab soldiers who were used by the regime to suppress their people, abandoning the tyrant to save themselves and removing their uniforms in case someone tries to take revenge. Their officers will inevitably be held to account for their role in the oppression.
The opposition leaders announced that Syria’s state institutions will continue to operate under the supervision of former Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi Al-Jalali until they are handed over officially, and that such institutions will not be touched. Even shooting in the air in celebration has been prohibited, no doubt because Syria can’t afford to waste bullets, the replacement cost of which needs to be spent instead on benefits for the people; the opposition have taken on a fractured economy and society.
Syria’s economy has declined over the past 13 years, from a GDP of $59.1 billion in 2010 before the civil war, to less than $9bn last year according to World Bank data. Its international economic position has declined from 67th globally in 2010 to 153rd last year, despite it being ranked 57th in terms of population.
There is also a lot of poverty and unemployment, and the health and education sectors have declined considerably, as has the value of the Syrian pound, which makes imports very expensive. The country suffers from a chronic shortage in both goods and services, and tourism revenues have fallen due to the poor security situation in a country that has 193 kilometres of beaches on the Mediterranean coast. High inflation has damaged local purchasing power, and youth unemployment last year was 29.8 per cent for males and 52.6 per cent for females.
This means that meeting the daily needs of the population will be a major problem for the new rulers, as will the barely-covered divisions within the opposition factions, and between them and the Syrian Democratic Forces that control areas in the east of the country. There are fears that these will be exploited by the US and Israel to exhaust the efforts of the new rulers, and that Turkiye and the Gulf states will also try to further their own interests. The Gulf states in particular will not be happy with the success of the Syrian revolution, as they fear it may destabilise their own thrones. We can, therefore, expect to see the Arab countries with oppressive regimes continuing to distort the image of the new regime in Syria in order to dissuade their own people from rising up against oppression.
There are still concerns about the response of Iran, Hezbollah and some Iraqi factions towards the new regime in Syria, as well as Russia. Neither Moscow nor Tehran will want to lose their strategic presence on the Mediterranean Sea, especially in a country which shares borders with five countries: Turkiye, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel.
The US will not want to see a strong, stable, Arab state bordering Israel that could one day demand its right to the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights or pose a threat to Israel’s security. The fact that the US backs the Syrian Democratic Forces, and could use them to destabilise the new regime, or at the very least keep it preoccupied so that it has no time to think or act against the occupation state, is likely to be a major influence on developments in “new” Syria. It is clear that developments in the country will require much more than toppling Assad.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241212-developments-in-syria-will-require-much-more-than-toppling-assad/
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Netanyahu Never Misses An Opportunity To Miss An Opportunity For Peace
Hassan Bin Youssef Yassin
December 12, 2024
After more than five decades of brutal and repressive rule, dividing the Syrian people and making their country an international pariah, the Assad regime of Syria has finally met its comeuppance. The lion (“assad” in Arabic) has finally been caged. A truly beautiful country of warm and welcoming people, profound cultural riches and tremendous historical importance is finally going to get a chance to show the world what it is made of. The Syrian people have been held back by an evil regime for so long. Finally, they will be able to construct the country they deserve and show the tremendous potential of the Syrian people at the historical and geographical crossroads of the Middle East.
A Syrian revolution that had seemed at its end was briskly revived — to the surprise of almost all — after the significant blows dealt to Hezbollah by Israel and with Russian troops having been diverted from Syria and mired in the war in Ukraine. Headed by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, which was once affiliated with Al-Qaeda, a diverse assembly of groups, including remnants of the Free Syrian Army, the Turkish-backed coalition of rebel groups, Islamist factions and more rebel groups in the south, took back the country in record time. In his victory speech at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, the head of HTS, Abu Mohammed Al-Golani, called on Syria’s people to “come together to rebuild our nation, free from tyranny and oppression,” while assuring all minorities that their rights would be protected in the new Syria.
This fresh and encouraging start, seeking to include all the Syrian people in a process of reconstruction and reconciliation, has assuaged the fears many countries had concerning the nature of the rebel coalition and its intentions. Even those countries that lost the most in the fall of the Assad regime, namely Iran and Russia, have sent messages of goodwill and cooperation to the powers that be in Syria. Al-Golani himself emphasized that “a new history has been written, not just for Syria, but for the entire region,” opening new paths for peace and stability across the region.
The almost universal response of goodwill and cautious optimism was renounced only by Israel, which chose instead to occupy more Syrian territory and carry out more than 100 airstrikes around the country on Monday. The prospect of a pragmatic leadership in Damascus emphasizing peace and reconciliation should really be a reassurance to Israel, particularly with the dramatic further blow to Hezbollah’s capacities this represents.
Instead, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the 1974 peace deal with Syria null and void and he bombarded the country. Netanyahu simply cannot bear the thought of peace, of a prosperous and stable Arab world that would force Israel to clearly delineate its borders and allow the establishment of a viable Palestinian state. He has left us no doubt about his continually malicious intentions.
As the Arab world forges ahead, seizing opportunities for peace, growth and stability, the new American administration must make it clear to Israel that its best interests do not lie in seizing more land and crushing the Palestinian people, but rather in becoming a respected partner in making the Middle East a land of peace, progress and stability. Israel cannot be allowed to continue to sabotage every chance for peace and must be held firmly to the establishment of a viable Palestinian state, not only by the international community but specifically by the new US administration.
Saudi Arabia’s response to the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria was in stark contrast to that of Israel, as the Kingdom offered “to help (Syria) overcome the devastation endured by the brotherly Syrian people over many years.” It called for “concerted efforts to preserve the unity of Syria and the cohesion of its people.” The Foreign Ministry concluded that “the time has come for the brotherly Syrian people to enjoy the dignified life they deserve, to contribute with all their components to shaping a bright future marked by security, stability and prosperity, and for Syria to reclaim its rightful place in the Arab and Islamic worlds.”
When we look at the history of the Jewish people in the Middle East, we find that, for centuries, they lived as an integral component of Arab societies, in peace and mutual respect. Avi Shlaim, the Israeli historian of Iraqi origin, confirmed that “before Zionism, the Jewish communities of the Middle East and North Africa lived among their neighbors as part of the social fabric, sharing languages, music and culture.” And Iraqi Jewish writer Naim Kattan explained that, “in Baghdad, we all lived together as neighbors, Muslims and Jews. We shared our joys, our griefs and our lives in peace.”
The fall of the Assad regime and the birth of a new Syria represent a critical juncture and a tremendous opportunity for peace, prosperity and stability, not only in Syria but throughout the Middle East. The occasion is too big for Israel to disregard. But to turn Abba Eban’s words around, Israel has recently proven that it never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity for peace. It is time for the world and the new US administration to make it clear to the Israelis that they cannot afford to stand against or aside from this new hope and effort for peace and stability in the region.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2582818
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Lebanon Must Be Stable, United In Wake Of Assad’s Fall
Khaled Abou Zahr
December 12, 2024
The scenes of joy in Lebanon following the end of the Assad regime are understandable and justified. Lebanon lived through decades of Syrian occupation. This occupation was the pure definition of an extractive, violent and oppressive policy. There is no need to go into the details as everyone is well aware of the methods of the regime and the culture of suspicion and fear it pushed.
This occupation was supposed to have ended in 2005, when Syrian troops left the country. Yet, there was merely a transition to the same occupation by Hezbollah and its allies. Syria, although no longer at the forefront, continued to give strategic and logistical depth. Hence, there was never the possibility to celebrate, heal and rebuild after its occupation ended. The so-called Cedar Revolution that brought this withdrawal shed its needles and ended up with more of the same oppression.
The scenes of horror coming out of Syrian prisons, where Lebanese were also held, are surreal and perhaps answer the questions of Lebanese families. Now, just like the prisoners, Lebanon will have to deal with the scars. It must rebuild its identity to reclaim its cultural heritage. Recreate the institutions and real links with the outside world. Undoubtedly, Lebanon’s future will stay linked to Syria. Yet, regardless of the political outcome in Damascus, Beirut should immediately seek to insulate itself from these events and their influence. There is hence a need for stability and unity in the country. We need to build unity among the people destroyed by years of occupation.
There are several steps Beirut needs to take to achieve this and manage the difficult task of rebuilding stability. As a first step, Hezbollah needs to immediately surrender its arsenal to the Lebanese Armed Forces. Its supply route through Iraq and Syria is now shut. Its access to Rafic Hariri International Airport has also been cut off by the Israelis. Today, its weapons could be labelled as a danger by the new Syrian state due to their role in supporting the Assad regime during the Syrian revolution. Failure to achieve this puts Lebanon at risk of being dragged into a new and horrific ordeal.
Pressure needs to come from the entire population, as well as the army, to achieve this as soon as possible. For the sake of the country’s future, this should not and cannot be delayed. Hezbollah is now obsolete and, as I have previously written, it was an artificial power. It needs to be stopped now.
In the same way, Lebanon cannot and should not harbor former Assad regime members, as has been reported. They need to be escorted out of the country. This is also another possibility for the new Syrian state, which will seek justice to interfere in Lebanese affairs. These figures are a representation of the barbarity that was used to destroy Lebanon and Syria alike. We owe them nothing.
The current situation also demands that the Lebanese military controls the border and prevents any crossings or smuggling that could lead to attacks or an unstable situation. Respect for the country’s borders by both Lebanese and Syrians needs to start now. This is a point of unity for the entire country.
The Lebanese Armed Forces have had to accommodate Hezbollah. This is a secret for no one. Whether on the international support given to it or on the domestic front, the rationale behind this was to cooperate and not be a threat to Hezbollah. This has to stop now. The military needs to be impartial and fulfil its true mission, including protecting the borders. It needs to fill the vacuum and show enough trust on both sides of the border. If it fails to do so, we will be heading for a catastrophic outcome.
We as Lebanese need to do the exact opposite of what our instincts tell us to do and what every single minority has done. We have invited external power for domestic gains, just riding a merry-go-round. One community after another. This must stop now. Lebanese Sunnis, to which I belong, should not see the change in Syria — if it is maintained — as an opportunity to replace Hezbollah. We cannot as Sunnis and should not use this new power as a way to shapeshift the power-sharing to our advantage once again. This is inviting instability and war. This consequently means that the weapons in the Palestinian camps also need to be surrendered to the military.
The army needs to be the only armed force in the country and it must represent the entire state, not a single community. It must uphold the creed of “Honour, Sacrifice, Loyalty” — loyalty to the nation. The people across minorities need to stand with the army. Christians, Muslim Shiites and Muslim Sunnis all need to feel pride in our army and stand by it and with it. This is the first and only way to have a shot at stability. It is not certain that we will be able to achieve this, but not doing it will most certainly doom us. If this is achieved, we can prove to ourselves and to our neighbours that we can hold it together. This will be the true celebration of the end of the occupation for all of us, or else it will be a very short-lived one.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2582815
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URL: https://www.newageislam.com/middle-east-press/syria-palestine-lebanon-assad-netanyahu/d/134012
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