Christian Terrorist Mows down Dozens in Murderous Spree by Tariq A. Al-Maeena: New Age Islam’s Selection, 04 October 2017
New Age Islam Edit Bureau
04 October 2017
• Christian Terrorist Mows Down Dozens in Murderous Spree
By Tariq A. Al-Maeena
• Ashoura and the Controversy among Saudi Shiites
By Hassan Al Mustafa
• Will Sanctions Against Iraq’s Kurdistan Work?
By Adnan Hussein
• Why Turkey’s Stability and Prosperity Matter to the World
By Cornelia Meyer
• Trump Is Widening America’s Ethnic Divide
By Yossi Mekelberg
• OPEC Should Not Be Happy With Oil at $60
By Wael Mahdi
Compiled By New Age Islam Edit Bureau
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Christian Terrorist Mows Down Dozens in Murderous Spree
By Tariq A. Al-Maeena
3 October 2017
Earlier this week in the glittering town of Las Vegas, Nevada, a Christian terrorist unleashed his brand of terror on people attending a concert. At least 59 people were killed and at least 527 were injured in the deadliest mass shooting in modern US history. The gunman fired on a crowded country music festival from his vantage point in a hotel nearby.
Police identified the terrorist as Stephen Paddock, a white 64-year-old local resident. Authorities believe he shot and killed himself following his murderous death spree. At least 17 guns were found in his hotel room, according to statements from law enforcement officials.
The assault has left the country shell-shocked. Although the authorities have released details regarding the shooting and the victims, one thing they have not provided is a motive. “It’s a dirty shame what he did. A lot of people are upset about it and hurt,” said one of Paddock’s cousins.
This is not the first time terrorism has visited Las Vegas. In 2014 in north-eastern Las Vegas, a white married couple, Jerad and Amanda Miller, went on a shooting spree in which five people died, including themselves. The couple, who espoused extreme Christian values, first killed two Las Vegas police officers at a restaurant before fleeing into a Walmart, where they killed an intervening armed civilian. The couple died after engaging responding officers in a shootout; police shot and killed Jerad, while Amanda committed suicide after being wounded.
Two years earlier, another white terrorist decided to take out his murderous rage on three hapless students at a residential complex of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. This time the victims were three American Muslims. While the US media initially played down the “hate crime” issue, it soon became apparent that this terrorist suffered from an irrational anti-Muslim obsession.
The terrorist, Craig Stephen Hicks, a white male, revealed his hatred for everyone outside his faith. In a chilling Facebook entry before the killings, he posted: “I’d say that I have not only a right, but a duty, to insult it (Islam), as does every rational, thinking person on this planet.”
Some readers may feel squeamish about my use of the term “Christian terrorist”. By the repeated use of the word “Christian,” I may have succeeded in conveying the impression that there are plenty of Christian terrorists around. And if other writers followed suit and used this label every time a crime
was committed by a Christian, it would not take too long for Christians to suffer from “Christianophobia” just as Muslims now suffer from Islamophobia.
However, in reality, both Paddock and Hicks may not have been inspired by Christian teachings to embark on their mission of terrorism. They were simply terrorists.
These examples highlight how Western media quickly talks about “Islamic terrorists” or “Muslim terrorists” when terrorists happen to be Muslim, but conveniently ignores religious affiliations when they are not. Just as Christians may find the title of this column offensive, trust me, so do Muslims the world over when they read not of acts of terrorism but of the religious affiliation of the perpetrators of crime, implying that all Muslims are as somehow accessories to the crimes that have been committed.
Some would argue that my arguments are not convincing as Paddock and Hicks did not go about hacking people with knives or quoting verses from the Bible. My response is that terrorists have no religion except the religion that they create for themselves and they serve only their purpose and nothing else. To dismiss them as lone wolves and not terrorists is an insult, and one that smacks of hypocrisy.
Naef Al-Mutawa, the Muslim creator of the superhero comic “The 99” says: “What worries me is the insistence of some in the media that only Muslims need apologize for the actions of these gangsta Jihadis. That somehow, all Muslims must accept responsibility.
“I refuse to apologize for drug taking ghetto trash that decided to go gangsta in the name of the Prophet (peace be upon him). I refuse to apologize for shoe bombers and underwear bombers who literally stunk it up for the rest of us. I refuse to take responsibility for suicide bombers and illiterate clerics who spew hatred in their respective pulpits. I will not accept to be judged as a Muslim based on the actions of the deranged, the ill-informed and the uneducated. I am no more responsible for their actions, than my Christians friends are for the actions of Anders Brevik, David Koresh, Timothy McVeigh, child abusing priests and countless others. I will only be judged for my actions.”
The media today is not simply a messenger of events created elsewhere but is an active contributor to and shaper of what audiences think. By choosing to highlight the religious aspect of some twisted and murderous terrorists who claim to be Muslim and conveniently ignoring others who are not, they are being untrue to their calling.
Source: saudigazette.com.sa/article/518569/Opinion/OP-ED/Christian-terrorist
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Ashoura and the Controversy among Saudi Shiites
By Hassan Al Mustafa
3 October 2017
Ashoura rituals are no longer a religious ceremony, which Shiites mark across the world. It has become a topic for debate between different movements and groups.
Citizens in Saudi Arabia observe Ashoura during the first 10 days of Muharram. Extensive preparations are made including several activities ranging from religious sermons, mourning, exhibitions, plays and blood donation campaigns. These events do not only reflect a religious duty but also express one’s desire to make an appearance.
Serious manifestations of remembering Imam Hussein appeared in Iraq after the third Gulf War in 2003 as their flagellation rituals began to include “Tatbir,” i.e. using a sword to beat their heads, and “Zanjeel,” i.e. using a chain with blades to beat their backs.
This is in addition to journeys in which people walk during the Arba’een to mark 40 days after the day of Ashoura, to Hussein’s tomb for days. There are other strange and primitive traditions which were inherited from Pakistan, Afghanistan and India and they include crawling on the ground or walking on burning coal.
‘Suppressed Culture’
These rituals can be sociologically and anthropologically interpreted as expressions of a “suppressed culture” that has lived on the margins for years although it has what it views a historical and religious legitimacy.
After the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime, this culture found itself free of all restraints that prevented it from expressing itself. Therefore, it began to spontaneously express itself in a manner where religious rites are mixed up with tribal ones.
The way Shiites expressed themselves and exposed the faults, which resulted from being marginalized for so long. This was a result of the elimination policy which the Baath Party practiced in Iraq during its time in power. It was also a reaction to attacks by al-Qaeda and ISIS later.
Rituals in this case reflect the politics, culture and social norms rather than a commitment to the teachings of Ahl Al-Bayt. Even the narratives – which those who perform these rituals tell you – are carefully selected according to what suits them as many texts actually contradict their practices and oppose them.
Shiite citizens in Saudi Arabia were affected by what happened in Iraq in 2003. The events there affected the entire region politically and culturally, but the increased practice of rituals by Shiites in Iraq had great influence on Shiites in the Gulf in general.
This is why we started to hear clerics calling on people to participate in self-flagellation rituals. A strange rhetoric that depends on metaphysics, dreams and myths began to develop while portraying Ahl Al-Bayt imams as people above humans or as men with superpowers. It is the same image drawn for Sufi saints or for Jesus in Christianity.
Doubting Rituals
Debates about these rituals among Saudi Shiites can be seen in the articles published in local news websites or social networks and during preachers’ and intellectuals’ lectures. In fact, the controversy reflects the society’s development and growing awareness.
Saudi Shiites are not a monolith and they are not a closed uniform community that walks like a herd of sheep behind a certain religious leader as some people imagine. They are like other social groups in Saudi Arabia, a community that’s culturally and socially diverse as there are several religious and liberal movements that engage in a real discourse that has resulted in several changes.
Here Is A Guide To The Ideas Circulating During Ashoura:
1. The movement of traditional clerics which represents a wide group that believes in the importance of commemorating Ahl Al-Bayt and holding ceremonies away from politics. These events mainly focus on detailing Hussein’s virtues and the Karbala incident. This movement does not adopt “Tatbir” or “Zanjeel.” The movement’s prominent clerics include Sheikh Hussein al-Omran and the late Sheikh Abdulhamid al-Khati.
2. A movement that consists of the Shirazi School that follows late Sayyid Mohammad al-Shirazi and another school that follows the “Walaai” doctrine represented by the late Sheikh Jawad Tabrizi and Ayatollah Hussain Vahid Khorasani. This is in addition to a third group called “Sheikhism” which is mainly present in al-Ahsa and Dammam. This group follows the teachings of late Mirza Hassan al-Haeri al-Ehqaqi.
While they have some differences, all these three movements support self-flagellation rituals and other practices considered unusual for the majority of Saudi Shiites. The problem with this group is that it attempts to monopolize Shiism and accuses those who oppose it of “weak loyalties to Ahl Al-Bayt.”
Extremists among this movement adopt a fundamentalist rhetoric similar to that adopted by the likes of Yasser al-Habib and Sayyid Mujtaba Hussaini Shirazi. They harshly criticize figures like Sayyid Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah, Sheikh Ahmad al-Waeli and Sheikh Abdulhadi al-Fadli because they reject the fundamentalist sectarian interpretation of Imam Hussein’s biography.
3. The Centrist movement aims to present the Karbala incident in a modern way and without narrating any myths. However, this movement “lacks the required bravery” as some would say and it does not engage in any critical discussions with clerics from the aforementioned school above.
This movement’s most prominent figure is Ayatollah Sayyid Mounir al-Khabbaz who has worked on presenting a moderate rhetoric rooted at the ideas of Sayyid Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah and Sayyid Mohammed Baqer al-Sadar. However, due to social pressures, Khabbaz does not criticize practices like “tatbir” as he wants to avoid debate with fundamentalists and to maintain unity, as his followers claim. He perhaps avoids it out of respect and courtesy for his teachers Mirza Tabrizi and Hussain Vahid Khorasani.
4. Reformist movement is a movement that rejects the metaphysical image promoted by the Shirazi movement when explaining Ashoura rituals. This movement frankly and directly criticizes this approach and believes that remaining silent over such practices poses a threat to “Shiism,” “distorts the renaissance of Imam Hussein” and contributes “to generalizing a culture of ignorance and backwardness.”
Among those who form the backbone of this “enlightenment” movement are Sheikh Hassan al-Saffar, Sheikh Hussein al-Mustafa, Sayyid Hassan al-Nimr and Sayyid Mohammed Rida al-Salman.
5. This fifth movement views Ashoura rituals as a result of religious phenomenon and as a human, social and cultural behaviour, i.e. it does not grant these rituals any sanctity that shields them from criticism. This movement deals with these rituals as a matter on which the standards of social and anthropological studies apply. Tawfiq Al-Saif is perhaps one of the most prominent experts in this field in Saudi Arabia.
Accurate Interpretation
Like any religious ritual, there is no single accurate and final interpretation of Ashoura rituals. They do not submit to rational standards in general but rather to acceptance and obedience. They are the product of spiritual sentiments and self-certainty.
According to this interpretation, they resemble “faith” and “love.” Both is personal and from the heart and which cannot be measured by reason alone.
Therefore, this fifth movement looks at the religious phenomenon via a neutral approach while culturally interpreting it and analyzing the factors that influence it without being part of it.
It believes this phenomenon is part of the individual’s and society’s freedom to practice religious rituals without any compulsions. However, this movement with its secular tendency also offers strong critique that rejects “primitive” behaviors like “tatbir” and walking on burning coal because they lack rationality and violate man’s dignity and humanity.
This discourse within the Saudi Shiite society is beneficial and necessary, and it’s important that it continues without the interference of any official or higher religious authority as it will produce more modern ideas that keep up with progress, strengthen belief in plurality, decrease the extent of fundamentalism and sectarianism and make people more able to think freely, without fear or control from clergy or others.
Source: english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2017/10/03/Ashoura-and-the-controversy-among-Saudi-Shiites.html
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Will Sanctions Against Iraq’s Kurdistan Work?
By Adnan Hussein
3 October 2017
The Barwari Bala region, a mountain plain distinguished for planting apples of American origin, is situated on the borders with Turkey, in the far north of the Iraqi Dahuk governorate.
Whenever I ask a Kurdish friend who lives there about how the apples are, he says they are bad. Why? “It’s because the globalization apples put them out of the market.” By “globalization apples” he means those imported, probably from Turkey.
The latter are being sold for low prices resulting in recession in sales of Barwari apples. The imported apples are even cheaper than the cost of collecting the Barwari apples and transferring them to markets. When I visited Barwari, apples were not picked and they were rotting in the trees or underneath them.
Perhaps there is now chance for Barwari apples and other Kurdish crops to regain their glory if Turkey, Iran and Iraq implement their threats and besiege Iraq’s Kurdistan region to force it to give up on the referendum which was held last week.
The Iraqi, Iranian and Turkish governments’ warnings could not postpone or halt the referendum. The serious threats they made led some to believe that at least one of them will opt for military power to prevent the referendum which “threatens national security” in all three countries, Iraq, Iran and Turkey, as they are saying.
The referendum was peacefully held but the governments of Baghdad, Ankara and Tehran are still threatening to take “deterring” measures against Kurdistan if it does not back down. So what are these three capitals’ options to achieve their aims?
The referendum did not result in any financial implications. There are no measures which the Kurdistan region can take in the foreseeable future toward independence. Kurdish leaders said several times that the referendum does not mean drawing borders or announcing independence but it aims to confirm the desire for independence which achieving requires the Iraqi government’s approval and willingness to engage in negotiations with it.
The Idea of Kurdish Independence
This independence though will of course depend on the stance of the other two strong neighbours, Iran and Turkey. It’s clear that like Baghdad, Tehran and Ankara, do not intend to accept the idea of Kurdish independence. As for military options, none of the three capitals frankly threatened to resort to military power to get the Kurds to forget this referendum ever happened.
They did not make such threats because they are aware they cannot resort to military power, neither solely nor together. Such military intervention will be internationally condemned. The US-led coalition which protected the Kurds during Saddam’s regime in the 1990’s will not accept such a move. The US-led coalition combating ISIS and the international community will also reject this, at least for humanitarian reasons.
Meanwhile, the Iraqi government cannot use power against the Kurds for moral and political reasons as any war against the Kurds will show that the current Iraqi regime, which is dominated by Shiite powers, is like Saddam’s regime that tragically persecuted the Kurds and Shiites once.
A war on the Kurds will not have any popular or political support – except for few politicians, mainly Islamists, who in the past few weeks displayed chauvinism that matches that of the Baath Party.
This is in addition to the fact that Iraqi troops are engaged in the war against ISIS and are fighting alongside Peshmerga troops. ISIS still poses dangerous threats to Iraq’s national security and Iraqi troops are not qualified to fight a second war.
Turkey and Iran are also incapable of using armed force as if they carry out any military operations in Iraq’s Kurdistan, they will witness unrest in their Kurdish regions where the population is double that of the Kurds in Iraq. Turkey and Iran are not in a situation that allows them to take such a risk and confront the possibility of domestic unrest.
There is also the economic factor as for over 25 years, ever since the Kurdish autonomy was established in 1991, Iraqi Kurds built extensive economic ties and partnerships with Iran and Turkey.
The market in the Kurdistan region now relies on products from these two countries, which have investments there worth billions of dollars. Turkey makes around $10 billion a year out of its trade with the Kurdistan region while Iran makes around $5 billion. This is in addition non-official trade, i.e. smuggling.
According to Turkish data, the Kurdistan region ranks third among the importers of Turkish products, after Germany and Britain. The Kurdistan region is the gate used to deliver Turkish and Iranian products to the rest of Iraq. The two countries’ investments in the region are in the oil, gas, manufacturing, transportation, telecommunications and dams sectors.
Strategic Interests
The number of Iranian and Turkish companies operating in the region is around 2,000 – most of them are Turkish. Turkey in particular has other strategic interests there as all of the latter’s oil passes to Turkey or through it.
In this case, it will be difficult for Ankara and Tehran to implement strict sanctions on the region as this will harm them more than anyone else. Iranian and Turkish officials implied this in the past few days when they said their measures will not target citizens.
Baghdad will face a similar situation as all Turkish products and most Iranian ones pass through the Kurdistan region and a decent amount of Iraqi oil passes through the Kurdistan region towards the Turkish Ceyhan port.
There are also joint investments between Arabs and Kurds in the region, like the case is in the rest of Iraq, and they would also be harmed if any sanctions are imposed. Strict sanctions will at most push the Kurds to go back to their traditional economy, which is based on agriculture.
In the 1990’s, the Kurds lived through a severe siege which the Saddam regime imposed. At the time, they did not have any infrastructure but today they have a decent one that’s much better than the rest of Iraq where financial and administrative corruption hindered the infrastructure’s development.
In brief, Baghdad, Ankara and Tehran will realize that economic sanctions will not be efficient. This will open the door to negotiate with Erbil again – a door that’s actually not closed now. They will thus realize that sanctions will push the Kurds in Iraq to further adhere to the independence option!
Source: english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2017/10/03/Will-sanctions-against-Iraq-s-Kurdistan-work-.html
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Why Turkey’s Stability and Prosperity Matter to the World
By Cornelia Meyer
3 October 2017
A lot has been happening in and around Turkey in the last week. Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the government released its mid-term program for the economy (2018-2020) and the Istanbul Finance Summit deliberated the state of the Turkish economy. Meanwhile, next door the Kurdish authorities held a referendum for independence, causing harsh reactions from the Iraqi central government and anxiety among countries with sizable Kurdish minorities, including Turkey.
This is as good a time as any to contemplate the state of the Turkish economy and its geopolitical importance to Europe and its neighbouring countries.
The Turkish economy experienced a serious dent due to the policy spat with Russia after the downing of a Russian fighter jet, and after the coup attempt in June 2016. Tourism was down by 31 percent, as was foreign direct investment. Tourism really matters to Turkey, which is grappling with a current account deficit of $32.5 billion — the highest in relation to GDP of any G-20 economy. There are other big structural economic imbalances in terms of employment, inflation, education, credit, et al.
Erdogan was able to repair relations with Russia, which helped economic ties and brought back Russian tourists in droves. Russia is also going ahead with the TurkStream gas pipeline and the Akkuyu nuclear power plant. And the two countries are at least talking on Syria.
Political tensions with Germany have ratcheted up since the 2016 failed coup in Turkey. The cool, calm and collected German leadership has a hard time coming to grips with Erdogan’s fiery rhetoric. His vitriol during the German election did not help, neither did Germany’s refusal to allow Turkish ministers to hold rallies. European countries took a bleak outlook on relations with Turkey because Erdogan arrested tens of thousands of citizens in the aftermath of the failed coup. European leaders are concerned with the human rights situation in the country — so much so that Turkey’s EU accession talks are all but dead for the time being.
Europe and Turkey are economically and geopolitically of huge significance to one another. In 2016, 55 percent of Turkish exports went to Europe. Germany provides the second largest number of tourists after Russians and this despite official travel warnings by the German government.
Turkey really matters in terms of geopolitics too — the country lies at the crossroads between Asia, the Middle East and Europe, and hence constitutes the Eastern-most flank of NATO. Five percent of global oil production passes through Turkey from its origins in Russia, Kazakhstan and the Middle East to reach European consumers. Russian and Ukrainian grain finds its markets in Europe and the Middle East after transiting Turkey. Let us not forget the refugee crisis: Europe did a deal with Turkey whereby the country agreed to stem the flow of refugees through its Western borders against payment of €3 billion. The Western Balkans route is now all but closed off, bringing respite to Hungary, Poland, Austria and Germany. Meanwhile, Turkey is housing three million Syrian refugees and is integrating them without much internal debate or resentment.
All of the above goes to show why Europe and Turkey’s other neighbouring nations have every interest in a stable and prosperous country. The economy took a big hit after the failed coup, but is on the road to recovery and is growing again. The OECD forecasts an economic growth rate of 3.5 percent for 2017 and 2018, although Turkey’s own numbers are significantly higher. Turkey has become an upper-middle-income country in the past decade and the government hopes the country will cross the upper-income threshold by 2020.
Political squabbles aside, all of Turkey’s neighbours have an interest in an economically prosperous country. Given that you can reach 1.4 billion people within a few hours’ flight from Istanbul, it is safe to conclude the world at large ought to have an interest in Turkey’s economic stability and well-being.
Source; arabnews.com/node/1171856
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Trump Is Widening America’s Ethnic Divide
By Yossi Mekelberg
3 October 2017
Not a week goes by without President Donald Trump stirring up controversy that deepens ethnic, racial or religious divisions within the US, as if there is not enough of it already. In a short space of time, he employed incendiary criticism against athletes protesting the discrimination of African-American citizens; he has renewed his battle against migration from countries with a Muslim majority; and continues to play a cynical political game with legislation protecting the undocumented “Dreamers” brought illegally to the US as children. In all of these policies, he positions himself as the defender of white Americans, who according to him are the only true patriots, from the ethnic and religious minorities, not to mention foreigners, who in his eyes are all a threat to the American way of life. This is the reactionary world of Donald Trump.
For most people outside the US, the name Colin Kaepernick was until quite recently completely unknown. However, the former quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers has become an international household name since he refused “to stand up to show pride in a flag for a country that oppresses black people and people of color” in August of last year. His protest, in the form of kneeling, known as “taking the knee” when the national anthem is played before games, has since been emulated by other sports figures from football league the NFL, basketball league the NBA, and sometimes by entire teams. The support of this protest has intensified since Trump entered into the fray in his typical manner, providing the match (or tweet) whenever there is a combustible situation.
For these protesting athletes, their act of kneeling during the national anthem and in front of the American flag is their way of exercising a fundamental democratic right of remonstrating against police brutality and other injustices against black people. Statistics coming from the US indicate that African-Americans are the worst off in society, with some disturbing figures to demonstrate this. Considerably fewer African-Americans hold university degrees in proportion to the rest of the population, they have higher levels of unemployment, and African-Americans make up nearly a third of inmates in prisons.
Kneeling during the national anthem might be controversial, and is definitely not universally endorsed as a means of protest. However, it is a legitimate act in a free society and is effective in highlighting one of the major issues that threaten the cohesion of American society. But, as we unfortunately have become accustomed to with Trump, he says exactly the wrong things, which exacerbate an already very tense situation.
In a campaign rally in Alabama, in a vitriolic verbal outpouring, he called for NFL players to be fired for kneeling during the national anthem. “Wouldn’t you love to see one of these NFL owners, when somebody disrespects our flag, to say, ‘Get (him) off the field right now…’ You know, some owner is going to do that. He’s going to say, ‘That guy that disrespects our flag, he’s fired.’ And that owner, they don’t know it (but) they’ll be the most popular person in this country.” Knowing what these athletes are protesting against, it is hard to see his inflammatory language as anything but a deliberate attempt to sow divisions within American society along ethnic lines for his own political gain. If this was not enough, Trump also canceled a visit to the White House by NBA champions the Golden State Warriors through a tweet after one of their star players, Stephen Curry, expressed his doubts as to whether it was appropriate for his team to carry on with the tradition of NBA champions visiting the White House, considering the president’s approach to race relations. Instead of diffusing the row, he provoked even more acrimony by canceling the visit.
Those are not isolated incidents but a reflection of someone who may seem to have a questionable agenda. For instance, North Korea, Venezuela and Chad were cunningly added to the travel ban list, which previously included only countries with vast Muslim majorities. This is supposed to make it more palatable for the courts in the US, which had already rejected Trump’s attempted ban on two previous occasions due to obvious discrimination against people of one specific religion. It may now be more difficult to challenge this policy in court, but in reality it represents a distinction without a difference. There isn’t exactly an influx of visitors from North Korea queuing at the gates of the US and Venezuela is an obvious target, but neither of them presents a danger to the US through migration.
Similarly, playing with the future of 800,000 undocumented immigrants who were brought to the US as children, otherwise known as Dreamers, originating mainly from Latin America, is aimed at galvanizing his xenophobic credentials. It creates needless uncertainty around a program that was devised by the Obama administration to enable them to stay for at least a limited time. Once again, promoting anti-immigration policy comes at the price of victimizing a very vulnerable group in society that has committed no offense.
Sadly, this is the face of the US under President Trump. If Congress, civil society and ordinary people won’t stand up against the road he is taking them down, they might not recognize their country come the next election.
Source: arabnews.com/node/1171851
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OPEC Should Not Be Happy With Oil at $60
By Wael Mahdi
3 October 2017
Oil prices have edged little lower over the past two days from near $59, but that should not be bad news for OPEC. Rather, this is good news because it will help the market stay rebalanced.
Last month, Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino told reporters in Kuwait that when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed on the current production-cuts accord, they envisaged oil prices to be in the $60s not where they are now in the $50s.
There was a little disappointment in his tone about oil prices, but if OPEC is really concerned about the stability of the oil market, its members should not be happy about oil prices staying around or exceeding $60.
Many citizens of OPEC countries may reject this argument because the higher the better for fiscal budgets of the oil states — those who depend on oil as their main source of income.
But what fills the state coffers in the short term might lead to a deficit in the long term, if some of the forecast for non-OPEC increase in supply is accurate.
OPEC ministers always have problems in agreeing what constitutes a fair price even though OPEC has no ability to set prices in the market.
It can only influence prices or help other participants in forming a floor for oil prices at best.
It took a market crash for the group to realize that the old price of $100, which they enjoyed for almost four years, was not a good price.
Before the prices collapsed starting mid-2014, many ministers were talking about $100 as the new equilibrium price to the extent that even some US oil tycoons like T. Boone Pickens said in late 2014 that OPEC would try to re-obtain the $100 in a year.
Today, most OPEC ministers denounce the $100 and some of them behind closed doors have blamed the high oil prices for the recent collapse of the market.
Indeed, the high oil prices of 2011-2014 were behind the rapid growth in US oil production and mainly from tight oil deposits, which is better known as shale oil. But what most ministers are missing is that the market is so dynamic that they cannot comprehend how fast things are changing.
In less than two years, the industry adjusted to the fall in oil prices.
Many major international oil companies (also known as Big Oil) have lowered their operating costs, slashed capital expenditures, sold non-core assets, and changed the way they do business. Companies like BP or Royal Dutch Shell are now operating under the assumption that oil prices are “lower for longer.” Shell is diversifying away from oil into other sectors like chemicals and renewables.
Shale oil companies in the US have also adjusted to the new reality, in which they played a huge part in shaping. They have applied every trick to stay in business from hedging to producing from drilled but uncompleted wells.
Every oil producer, except OPEC and a few other non-OPEC countries, showed their resilience to low oil prices. The result of that is they can still produce even when oil prices are half of what they used to be four years ago. Yet, no matter how resilient everyone is, shale oil companies cannot make enough profit this year even as oil prices at around $50 to $55.
With all the advances in financial engineering, the $60 of today can be as damaging to the stability of the market as the $100 of 2011-2014 because it will allow most of the high oil producers who exited the market to think about coming back again. This was obvious in the rise in hedging activities of shale drillers this year.
So it is in the best interest of OEC and its allies — who have pledged to cut 1.8 million barrels per day of their production between January 2017 and March next year – to see oil prices at $50-$55 because the market is still testing shale resilience to oil at $45-$55.
Some research firms like Bernstein sees $60 and more as the price that can support long-term development of US oil production.
Nonetheless, if international oil companies and shale oil drillers were able to financially engineer their way out through the current crisis, then OPEC’s survival rests on revolutionizing the way it sets its budgets.
However, achieving this is never easy for states that are addicted to oil, but without it surviving in the era of “lower for longer” is hard and OPEC will always be captive to its own creation: High oil prices.
Source: arabnews.com/node/1171846
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URL: https://www.newageislam.com/middle-east-press/christian-terrorist-mows-down-dozens/d/112758