Is The Southeast Becoming Syria?
By Mahmut Akpinar
February 19, 2016
The direction things have taken in the Southeast is not what some may think: it's going very badly. Unfortunately, many Turks see the struggle against terrorism as simply “killing terrorists.”
First and foremost, we don't actually know how true the numbers we are hearing about the “dead terrorists” are. To wit, over the years that the war against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has been raging, we know the number of terrorists killed has always been toyed with to meet public expectations.
After incidents in which soldiers are killed, there has always been the desire to create and spread the impression that “revenge has been exacted and we've done what was necessary.” In the meantime, we as a society need to seriously debate the real role played by “killing terrorists” in this whole struggle against terrorism. After all, killing anyone, including terrorists, provokes more violence, promotes a greater sense of revenge and inevitably spreads and reflects all these feelings back onto society.
When experienced hands or the top-level operatives in Kandil remain untouched and the young 15 to 20-year-olds are always the ones being killed by the state, this only winds up benefitting the terrorist organization. Because with each dead youth, sympathizers and enemies of the state emerge, no matter from the youth's friends, family or wider circles. Fighting terrorism is not killing; it is preventing death and violence to the best extent possible.
Similarly, fighting terrorism is using intelligence-based data to prevent incidents from occurring, not eliminating terrorists and militants. It is because the real terrorism fighting units in Turkey have been scattered because they are unequipped and uneducated, it is because today's fight against terrorism is being carried out so carelessly and so crudely. Some may actually be pleased by this display of crudeness, but the real truth is this stance only helps to increase the size of the problem and to spread it. Our hearts burn with news of martyred soldiers but neither can we celebrate the news of dead Kurdish youth.
We need to question why and how it is that we lost them to terrorism and why we weren't able to win them over before they were killed. We need to develop methods other than killing in reacting to this all. We need to do this as humans and as people interested in pursuing a real fight against terrorism. For to wit, with every death, the solution is becoming more difficult, more far off on the horizon.
As for the PKK, it has always known how to further develop its strategy. PKK extensions in the Southeast now possess a serious and strong political and social presence in the region; recent times have seen the PKK make historic gains, in fact. First and foremost, in the days before the settlement process, there was an intelligence-based, influential struggle with the PKK. It was a struggle that respected laws and human rights. Local citizens at the time really believed the PKK would be finished off. Local merchants, even the elderly, had started reacting angrily to things said and done by the PKK. But things changed after the infamous Uludere incident. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) government gave the PKK the kiss of life, and the settlement process was officially initiated.
Secondly: Despite the fact that the majority of Syrian Kurds do not support the PKK, the terrorist organization focused its forces in the north of Syria between 2013 and 2015, setting up a de facto, forced structure there and thus surrounding Turkey from the south. And today of course, we have the autonomous, independent structure of the Democratic Union Party (PYD), to whom international powers speak directly.
Third of all: The PKK inside of Turkey never laid down its weapons. On the contrary in fact, the cease-fire arranged by the AKP ended up meaning the PKK began stockpiling weapons and ammunition, while also going from street to street to recruit new members. In short, it used the time during the settlement process to set the foundations for city warfare. It also developed its policies of fear and oppression over locals during this time. And even families that had been appointed as village guards against the PKK were forced to give up their children to the PKK rank and file in response to the ruling party's binding of the military, police and courts in the face of unleashing the PKK in the region. Many people around this time spoke of how the “state came to an agreement with the PKK and left the entire region to the organization.” So as the PKK continued collecting “taxes,” setting up “courts” and training new “soldiers,” the state was busy ruining the sociological foundations in the region.
Fourthly: The PKK strengthened its forces in the Kandil camps with armed military reinforcements from outside of Turkey. In fact, during this period it obtained missiles capable of bringing down planes and a whole new range of heavy weaponry. It even has tanks under its control now. Soon enough, it may well possess war planes and helicopters.
But the most important gains seen by the PKK during the settlement process were diplomatic ones. Thanks to the AKP, even though blood was spilled during the settlement process, Abdullah Öcalan was transformed into a kind of “Nelson Mandela” figure, while the PKK gained a “peaceful” image. With its “fighting the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)” argument, the organization also picked up significant Western and even global support. In fact, every single aspect of the settlement process was working in the PKK's favour. Ultimately, the final parting gift from the AKP came when the ruling party left the negotiating table, thus ensuring that they would be the ones who would be viewed as “uncompromising,” and the PKK, by contrast, as “protectors of peace.”
Most recently in Turkey, we've seen games being played with the social psychology in the Southeast under the guise of “fighting the PKK.” Tanks surround cities, roads are blocked and people are being deprived of their most basic human rights. Even urgent health services are unattainable at this time. People are being forced to flee homes and businesses, just as we saw in the '90s. When it comes to helping to bring an end to terrorism, careless and generalized stances on the part of the state do not help at all; on the contrary, they tend to push citizens in the region further and further away from the state. Chauvinist stances provoke people and promote the arguments pushed forward by the PKK.
In general, society offers its unconditional support for anything done within the framework of fighting the PKK, but the acts unfolding that do not seem to respect any laws or human rights are causing the dreams that we can live as one to die.
Wise members of society need to see both the necessity of fighting the PKK and the reality of what is happening on the ground as in the pain that people are experiencing; this is our duty as humans, as brothers and sisters. Just as it was a terrible error in the past to abandon the arena to the PKK in the name of a “solution,” today it is equally as wrong to surround, attack, displace and crush people in the region in the name of fighting the PKK. The state is bound by its duties to protect the livelihood and possessions of its citizens. The actions of the PKK do not in any way justify anything less.
So Where Is This Headed?
I believe that as spring rolls around, the PKK will want to spread its terrorism and trench digging to many more cities in the region. After all, the PKK/Kurdistan Communities Union (KCK) possess the infrastructure to do so. In the past three years, it has made very important strategic gains to this end and has brought the fight successfully down from the mountains into city streets. It is a lot easier for a state to fight a terrorist organization in provincial areas than it is in the streets of cities and towns. And unfortunately, Turkey presented the PKK with this opportunity -- to bring its strategy to a new level -- on a silver platter.
The nationalistic, anti-Kurdish rhetoric heard in the run-up to the recent elections worked perfectly as a vehicle for PKK propaganda. We now face two possibilities: either the AKP gives bigger and clearer concessions to the PKK while getting international forces involved to force the PKK to sit down on the negotiating table, or the ongoing events will get worse and will spread to other cities in the region. If and when this happens, giant waves of migrations from the east to the west of the country -- not dissimilar to Syria -- will begin, leaving behind ghost towns and cities in the east.
In fact, if this happens you will be able to divide the entire region into “cities controlled by the state” and “cities controlled by the PKK.” Right now, the PKK is experiencing its most advantageous period ever. Kandil remains intact. The PYD has set up cantons in northern Syria. Turkey has no way of controlling a border that runs from Kars to Hatay against the PKK. It is not prepared to do so and is not even trying. And because of various fiascos in the diplomatic world, we can't look to our neighbors for help on this front, either.
If the PKK begins a wholesale uprising, the Southeast could very soon transform into something resembling Syria. Masses of citizens fleeing from clashes there will start heading west. And the economy, already suffering from the waves of Syrian refugees, will not be able to handle such a political crisis.
The above conjectures are not some sort of fiction; they are likely scenarios that are now lying at our doorstep. The PKK possesses a strong enough infrastructure and tools to wreak serious havoc. Those leading Turkey, however, are not prepared to face these possibilities. Just thinking and hoping such things will not happen is no longer enough.
Mahmut Akpınar is an associate professor of political science as well as the political studies director at the Center for Legal, Ethical and Political Studies (HESA).
Source: todayszaman.com/op-ed_is-the-southeast-becoming-syria_412760.html
URL: https://newageislam.com/islam-terrorism-jihad/is-southeast-becoming-syria/d/106421