Obama's Middle East Strategy

By Beril Dedeoğlu

September 12, 2014

United States President Barack Obama unveiled last week his long-term plan to fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), which now calls itself the Islamic State (IS).

He was harshly criticized when he said the US lacked a strategy in the fight against this organization, but now he has one. Moreover, the plan doesn't look like a limited one aiming at simply destroying the IS threat; it is more like a big strategy aiming at reorganizing relations in the Middle East.

According to Obama, this big strategy's first purpose is to reinforce the Western alliance. In other words, the US will do its best to make sure that the European Union member countries cooperate closely with NATO under Washington's leadership. In other words, from now on, the US will not tolerate European countries implementing their individual plans for the region. Turkey is, of course, a natural part of this bloc.

Secondly, the Obama administration seems determined to punish players who exploit the Sunni-Shiite divide in the Middle East. In this context, the first effort will be to incorporate Iran into the game by compelling it to work with Saudi Arabia. The latter needs also convincing, and the US believes if the Gulf States join in this coalition, it will be easier to persuade Saudi Arabia. In brief, Saudi-Iranian cooperation will be one of the key elements of this new period in the region.

Obama's new strategy is also about shaping the future of Iraq and Syria. The US backs the new Iraqi government and the local Kurdish government in Arbil. It will continue to do so if Baghdad and Arbil accept cohabitation; in other words, if Iraqi Kurds shelve their desire to become an independent state. By the way, the Iraqi central government will have to do its best to keep Sunni Iraqis loyal to Baghdad.

In Syria, the situation is slightly different: The US administration will definitely not support the Damascus regime, even for the sake of the fight against the IS. Instead, it will try to break the IS into pieces by separating “moderate” elements within the organization. The objective is to encourage Syrian Kurds and Sunnis to work together and limit the Damascus regime's room to maneuver.

Like in Iraq, the aim is to prevent Syrian Kurds from declaring independence and to give the Sunnis a role in Syria's governance.

The strategy's success depends on several conditions: If European powers admit this is the only way out and decide to contribute to the American effort, and if the Iranians and Saudis can be persuaded to cooperate, things will be easier and quicker. However, one shouldn't believe “success” means the total destruction of the IS: The US may prefer to confine the IS in a small area from where the organization may continue reminding the world what an important threat it is, because if the IS is totally eradicated, the new alliances forged in the Middle East may not survive. The EU may cease to cooperate with NATO; Saudis and Iranians may resume their antagonism; and Kurds in Iraq or in Syria may decide to go on their own way.

In this context, Turkey's attitude is of critical importance. Ankara cannot give open and vigorous military support against the IS, as our diplomats are still being held hostage. It may play, however, a tacit role in restructuring the Syrian opposition. Besides, it may facilitate the EU-NATO cooperation and give reassurances to Kurds in all parts of the region. In fact, Turkey's main contribution to the fight against the IS will be “tidying up” its own house.

Obama believes his strategy will succeed in three years. Everybody has to do their part during this period if they don't want to be punished by Washington. All the aforementioned players have their vulnerable points, about which the US is perfectly informed. They will either contribute to the US strategy or they will pay a price.

Source: http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/beril-dedeoglu/obamas-middle-east-strategy_358521.html

URL: https://newageislam.com/islam-west/obama-middle-east-strategy/d/99078