Rise of Asaduddin Owaisi as a Prominent Muslim Leader Points to Many Political Intricacies
By
Sajjan kumar
4 Feb 2021
Asaduddin
Owaisi, president of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM),
complicates political equations. He stirs the easy fit between mainstream
secular parties and their hold over Muslim voters. In terms of the popularity
index in India, he comes close to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) triumvirate
of Narendra Modi, Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath. Recently, the AIMIM’s
electoral gains in Bihar and Mr. Owaisi’s visits to poll-bound West Bengal
(2021) and Uttar Pradesh (in 2022) have revived the debate around his exact
intention, emerging Muslim voting patterns and their implications for the BJP
and its rivals.
Asaduddin Owaisi, president of the All India
Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen
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Mr.
Owaisi’s national avatar is a conjunction of the political dynamics that were
induced by the Sachar Committee report and the Batla House encounter case,
wherein while political Hindutva was on the decline, the interplay of the
backwardness of Muslims and their insecurities exposed the failures of secular
mainstream parties in catering to the community’s aspirations. This created a
secular paradox, where, comforted with the decline of the BJP and the electoral
ascendency of the Congress and other regional parties, many Muslim outfits and
leaders blamed secular parties for failing Muslims. Thus began a new, although
cluttered, phase of the community’s experiments with Muslim parties and a
growing clamour for more representation. The Peace Party of India and the
Rashtriya Ulama Council in U.P., the AIUDF in Assam, and the popular resonance
of the Pasmanda movement led by Ali Anwar Ansari in Bihar, and, since 2012,
that of the AIMIM in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Bihar, U.P., and now in West
Bengal, point to the churn within the Muslim community.
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Also Read: Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM Plays Spoilsport By Making A
Dent Into Muslim Votes In Bihar Elections
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Here, it is
important to note that initially, the AIMIM had its limitations. Firstly, it
was just a city-based party. Secondly, until the 2004 Andhra Pradesh Assembly
poll, the party’s electoral tally had plateaued at a maximum of just four
seats. Thirdly, whenever the party tried to venture outside Hyderabad — like in
the 1989 and 1994 Assembly elections, where it contested 35 and 20 seats
respectively and forfeited its deposit on 28 and 15 seats — it fared poorly.
Thus, Mr. Owaisi had the ardent task of strengthening the party’s foothold in
its home turf before venturing outside. Hence, he chose the safe path of
aligning with the UPA and defended the Congress in 2008 in the wake of the
confidence vote sought by the Manmohan Singh-government after the Left Front
withdrew support over the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal.
National
Ambitions
By 2009,
two factors were helping Mr. Owaisi. His parliamentary interventions
established him as an eloquent spokesperson for the Muslim question at the
national level, and the delimitation exercise making more Assembly
constituencies in Hyderabad, like Malakpet and Nampally (previously Asifnagar
AC), Muslim-dominated seats, raised the electoral tally of the AIMIM, thereby
empowering Mr. Owaisi at the regional level. This fuelled his national
ambitions. By 2012, the party had set its eyes on two neighbouring States —
Maharashtra and Karnataka — and particularly regions that were part of the
Hyderabad State during the Nizam’s rule and had significant Muslim populations.
A significant breakthrough for the party’s national ambitions came in October
2012, when the AIMIM won 11 of the 25 seats it contested in the Nanded
municipal polls in eastern Maharashtra. Now, Mr. Owaisi followed the template
of the secular paradox theory — accusing the Congress of favouring Hindu
communal forces and acting against the interests of the Muslims, he withdrew
support from the Congress government in Andhra Pradesh and at the Centre.
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Also Read:
Sultan
Shahin, Not Owaisi, Represents India’s Muslims
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A closer
look at Mr. Owaisi’s political moves reveals his calculations. In his quest to
find an alternative to the BJP and political Hindutva in future, he is working
towards the creation of a national third front, a non-Congress, non-BJP
alliance, wherein AIMIM would be an indispensable part, acting as a magnetic
pull for minority votes away from traditional claimants like the Congress and
other parties. For instance, in 2018, Mr. Owaisi supported the JD(S) over the
Congress in Karnataka; in Maharashtra in 2014 and 2019, he targeted the
Congress and the NCP more than the BJP. The same template was repeated in 2015
and 2020 in Bihar and in 2017 in Uttar Pradesh. Now, in West Bengal, the ruling
Trinamool Congress and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee are the prime targets,
and predictably, the Samajwadi Party, the BSP and the Congress would be in Mr.
Owaisi’s line of fire in the run-up to the 2022 U.P. Assembly election.
Political
Psychology
No wonder,
parties that are at the receiving end of Mr. Owaisi’s politics label him as
being hand-in-glove with the BJP. However, the underlying reason for Mr.
Owaisi’s attack on mainstream secular parties is a necessary evil he must
embrace. The seats AIMIM aims to win in every State happen to be
minority-dominated constituencies mostly controlled by these parties. Wresting
those seats leaves Mr. Owaisi with no other option but to train his guns at
them rather than the BJP. However, navigating the Muslim electorates’ maze is
also contingent on the community’s political psychology.
Let’s take
three states: bihar, west Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. In Uttar Pradesh alone, in
the Meerut-Muzaffarnagar-Saharanpur region, one finds castes like Muley Jats,
Tyagi Muslims, and Gujjar Muslims, besides the Sheikhs, Sayyids, Quraishis and
others; in Rohilkhand region, the Turks, Pathans, Saifis, Ansaris, etc.,
maintain their caste identifications; in Braj, particularly in Aligarh town,
the upper-caste Pathans, who have lost their political clout, are present in
pockets; further, in the Poorvanchal region, both south and north of the Ghaghra
river, the OBC Ansari Muslims constitute a majority but lack political
representation. In Bihar, the OBC Ansari Muslims are politicised and dominate
the Bhojpuriand Mithila-speaking districts; in the Seemanchal region, where the
AIMIM recently made electoral gains, the rivalry among the upper-caste
Surjapuris and OBC Kulhaiya and Shershahvadi Muslims is wellknown. Further, in
parts of northBengal like Coochbehar, Alipurduar, Jalpaiguri, the Nashya Shaikh
Muslims, who are also found in Dhubri, Kokrajhar and Goalpara districts of
lower Assam, have a significant presence; similarly, in districts like Dinajpur
and north Malda, the Muslim universe mirrors the composition of Seemanchal
Bihar, ie., the Surjapuris and Shershahvadis; in south Bengal, while a majority
of Muslims identify themselves as Sheikhs, they fall in the OBC category and
are divided along sectarian and religious lines of being either the followers
of Furfura Sharif or of the Jamiat-Ulama-i-Hind.
In this
context, the Muslim psychology is about accentuating these internal differences
when the fear of an aggressive Hindutva discourse is not the prime factor
affecting their minds. However, when elections are polarised and the fear of
the BJP’s imminent victory is paramount, Muslims close ranks and vote for
mainstream secular parties. Hence, it can be expected that in the 2021 West
Bengal election or the 2022 Uttar Pradesh election, the aggressive Hindutva
push and the prospect of a BJP victory may ensure that Muslims would reject Mr.
Owaisi and consolidate behind the traditional claimants. In the meantime, the
AIMIM chief would keep analysts guessing.
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Sajjan
Kumar is a political analyst associated with People’s Pulse
Original
Headline: Shifting sands and the Owaisi
effect
Source: The Hindu
URL: https://newageislam.com/islam-politics/rise-asaduddin-owaisi-prominent-muslim/d/124223
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