What Is Compelling The Gulf Monarchies To Change Their Longstanding Position On Israel And Rush Towards Normalization?
By
Syed Usama Shirazi
December 8,
2020
Radical
changes have been taking place in the Middle East since UAE signed
normalization deal with Israel a few months ago. Bahrain and Sudan followed the
suit and recently a secret meeting was reportedly held between Muhammad Bin
Salman, the de-facto ruler of Saudi Arabia and Israeli Prime minister Benjamin
Netanyahu, facilitated by the US secretary of the state Mike Pompeo in Neom, a
city of KSA. What is compelling the Arab world especially the gulf monarchies
to change their longstanding position on Israel and rush towards normalization;
here are some possible reasons.
Firstly,
the global world order has been changed. It is no longer a unipolar. Fareed
Zakria, a foreign policy expert and columnist at Washington Post, in his
recently published book “Ten Lessons for a Post-Pandemic World” writes that the
United States is no longer the world hegemon and a bipolar system has been
established with China as a new global power. This change also brought about
fluctuations in geopolitical environment of many regions. The Middle East has
no exception to it. In the US, there is a bipartisan consensus regarding
China’s immediate threats to the country’s strategic interests. The 2008
national security policy of the US termed both China and Russia as important
partners for the future. However, now with the new strategy of 2018, both have
been described as strategic competitors and threat to the free world. In this
era of global power competitions and of alignments and realignments, there is
little space left for security sensitive states to navigate. Owing to the
nature of bipolarity and realities of antagonistic Hobbesian international
system, the insecurities of the Gulf countries are understandable.
Secondly,
Iran “Turn to East” policy is also shrinking diplomatic and strategic space for
the Gulf world and compelling it to seek Israeli patronage. Iran has been
grappling with illicit US sanctions which compelled it to fill the space by
extending hand to China and Russia. The recent Sino/Iran strategic deal could
be a lifeline to moribund Iran’s economy and would allow it to continue its
regional expansionist agenda. The strategic dimensions of the deal are being
seen with suspicions by Washington and its Gulf partners as the proposed
Chinese military bases in Jask and Chabahar port would give both countries a
military edge. Besides, Russia also has a convergence of interests with the
both states which makes a new triple axis of Beijing, Moscow and Tehran.
By
contrast, the United States is losing interest in the Middle East. The region
was once the linchpin of its foreign policy owing to the energy reserves it has
as the former’s economy was entirely dependent on oil. However, with the
discovery of shale oil, its reliance on the Middle Eastern oil has been
diminishing. Now, the major US interest in the region is protection of Israel
which could not be possible while having tumultuous and threatening neighbors
around it. Also, the US new retrenchment strategy of reducing military spending
around the world is compelling the Gulf countries to find new patronages for
their survival.
The US
focus has been shifting from the Middle East to Indo/pacific region. The U.S.
Central Command General McKenzie has said that henceforth their focus will be
on Indo/Pacific region where China is pursuing a path of confrontation by
undermining
international
law and behaving aggressively. The Chinese assertiveness in the Indian ocean,
power projection in Taiwan strait, militarization of South China Sea and
construction of military bases following its ‘’String of Pearl” strategy are
ringing the tocsin in Washington as well in the capitals of its allies. This
shift from the Middle East to Indo/pacific will unequivocally embolden Iran and
disrupt the regional balance of power.
Additionally,
the Turkish role in contemporary geopolitical shuffling is paramount. Turkey,
under Tayyip Erdugan is pursuing an expansionist strategy for reviving the
glories of Ottoman dynasty. He wants to influence the Muslim world through his
pro- Islamic and anti-western posture which many Gulf countries consider a
threat to their monarchical rule. The Turkish tilt towards democratic factions
during Arab spring, support to the democratic regime of Muhammad Morsi in
Egypt, and now its backing to internationally recognized Libyan government have
created rifts between Ankara and its Gulf counterparts. Gulf countries consider
every democratic propensity in their peripheries as a threat to their
monarchical system which is why UAE tacitly supported Bashar ul Assad in Syria.
According to a report of Russian Television, UAE offered three billion dollars
to Assad for attacking the Turkish forces in Syria and the plan was later
dropped by Putin interference. This shows that gulf monarchies will do anything
to save their monarchial system even at the cost of regional peace.
In sum, the
recent Arab/Israel bonhomie is a win-win situation for both parties. Israel, a
small country, surrounded by enemies, has always faced existential threats. Its
survival would not have been possible if there were no United State. Currently,
Israel’s all eggs are in one basket and that basket belongs to the United
States. In the long run, its security could be at stake if the US abdicate from
its global obligations or no longer be able to protect it as history has
witnessed the rise and fall of many great empires.
Moreover,
the changing power centres and advancement of military technologies could bring
Israel’s enemies at par with it. The only viable solution to Israel security is
to have friendly neighbours with which it shares deep political, economic and
cultural ties. Hence the two-state solution is in Israel’s own interests if it
wants to survive in this anarchic world.
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Syed
Usama Shirazi is a columnist based in Islamabad.
Original
Headline: Arab-Israel bonhomie
Source: The Daily Times, Pakistan
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