By Dr Salim Nazzal
02 September, 2013
We are almost sure of the signs that the Us war against Syria has been postponed. This was clear in the latest speech of Obama. In fact the sign of rejecting the war came first from the US strong allay Britain, which its parliament rejects the war. In France too, the second ally of the U.S in the plans to attack Syria, many voices called to follow the British model to get the authorization from the General assembly. Moreover, most European countries rejected any war outside the mandate of the UN must have also played a role in Obama change of mind.
This is a great news to those who stood against the war, and gives a new breath to the voices, which call for ending the civil war in Syria.
Indeed the world has changed much since 2003, when most of the world stood against the American war without result.
The question is what has happened that Obama changed his mind (and not necessarily his heart) towards attacking Syria?
In my view, there are several elements, which undoubtedly have made him change his mind.
The first is that the war on Syria is predicted to open the gates of hell in the whole Middle East. Obama knew that very well. For that reason, his diplomats sought to isolate Iran from supporting Syria, and it is obvious that they failed. He must have known that the first rocket, would unleash a war that none is able to predict where it might lead. Many even talks about Armageddon, which has been long in the Judea Christian Islamic tradition, which talks about a decisive war begins from Syria and end the world.
What is obvious is that the picture of the war if it happened might not be much farther from this mythology.
The strong position of Putin Russia is also a factor in the Obama second thought.
Russia today is neither the fragmented Soviet of 1990 nor the fragile Russia in 2003 under the invasion of Iraq. The American knows this. They tried to bribe Russia but obviously in vain.
The situation in the U.S. itself is yet another factor. The U.S. has lost its confidence after two major wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the policy of declaring war on a country thousands of kilometers from the U.S. does not gain much support.
The other factor is the weak evidence about who is behind the gas attack. Some reports said that Israel, which provided the US with the (evidence) .And everybody, knows that Israel seeks to weaken Syria. This must have added additional skepticism in the absence of any hard and reliable evidence. In 2003, the administration lies and fabrications misled the public opinion, by portraying Iraq as a threat to the Us. The American public opinion knows now that it was just lying to invade Iraq.
However, if peace-loving people are happy with this news, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and the major bulk of the extreme Islamists who supported the war are not happy. This is yet another setback to those interested in disintegrating the powerful Arab states.
The power of the public opinion and the civil society, which rejects the war, is also another factor .And it is expected that the power of the global society increase with time.
However, what is clear that the time of absurd intervention has gone .And this is a clear defeat for those who still believe in the Tomahawk policy. They need to open their eyes to realize that the world has changed. And if the world is changing, the Middle East must change too. The efforts must now be focused on stopping the civil war in Syria to reach a political solution, which allows Syria to change towards democracy. In addition, it is by the time to address seriously the root of the problems in the middle east, which is the Zionist occupation of Palestine.
Dr. Salim Nazzal, a Palestinian-Norwegian historian on the Middle East, He has written extensively on social and political issues in the region.