Muslim Vote: A product of Political Labs, Not Polling Booths
By Zia Haq
March 4, 2012
Going by official
socio-economic indices, the average Muslim voter is a school drop-out, earns
meagre wages, supports a mid-sized family, is self-employed, resides mostly
among his ilk, would have not travelled far beyond his birthplace, is
remarkably ‘clued in’, unlikely to vote any one party or candidate, but is
generally cagey about Hindutva-based politics.
Muslims, India’s
largest minority, get more than a fair share of wooing since they are thought
to impact elections by voting as a bloc. Most political analysts say this is an
over-hyped myth.
Yet, the elections in
UP, a bellwether state the size of Brazil, were being fought as if the outcome
would solely be determined by how or whom Muslims voted.
The polls saw most
parties court Muslims separately. The incumbent Kumari Mayawati-led government
had put out newspaper ads, showcasing the absence of Hindu-Muslim religious
clashes under her reign. Given that religious violence has disproportionately
claimed more Muslim lives, security lies at the heart of Muslims’ concerns.
In the ensuing UP
polls, the trigger for a “superlative Muslim agenda” may have been set off by
the Congress. Its government at the Centre announced carving out a fixed share
of government jobs and university seats for minority groups from an existing
reservation system.
Though not a
Muslim-only quota, it was largely aimed at wooing the community. This led the
Samajwadi party to pledge a similar but a larger “quota” to Muslims.
Muslims make up about
18% of UP’s 200 million population, making them politically significant for
that reason alone. Of the 403 electoral constituencies, they are said to be
influential in one-third. Statistics do show that parties have won elections by
cornering sizeable votes from “low-caste” Hindus along with those of Muslims.
Mayawati’s BSP and
Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP party both gave 85 Muslims party nominations, only
slightly below Dalits who got 88 from Mayawati’s party. Congress fielded 56
Muslims.
Most poll pundits
would say India’s all-important Muslim vote doesn’t exist. At least, not in the
statistics. If we really want to associate social categories with political
categories, then caste is a far bigger factor, Hilal Ahmed, a scholar at
Delhi’s The Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, tells me.
Political analyst Zoya
Hasan of Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University too has found little evidence for
the “Muslim vote”. Muslim votes are split along caste, class and regional
lines, she says.
While Muslims may not
vote as a bloc, they do, however, seem to generally agree on who not to vote.
This is especially true when they see an emerging threat from communal politics
of Hindu nationalists that threaten their identity. “When there is no such
threat, they tend to focus on the bigger issues, such as education,” Hasan
says.
The BJP, which
represents Hindu cultural nationalism, has essentially come to serve as some
kind of a reference point in India’s larger electoral equation for Muslims.
Statistics do show that Muslims are not very keen on voting the BJP. This may
have a role in reinforcing the notion of an “all-important Muslim vote”.
Muslims seldom back a
lame horse. Historically, they tend to vote for a party or candidate with the
strongest chances of winning, which has also bolstered the view of them being a
political category of their own.
When, in the middle of
the UP polls, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi quickly rejected any post-election
alliance with the SP, it was this tendency of the Muslim voter he had in mind.
The idea was to staunch a gaining impression that the SP was ahead in the race,
which could potentially see Muslims leaving the Congress for the SP.
The UP polls saw a
vigorous outreach of Muslim voters by all parties. The Election Commission,
India’s poll regulator, put a leash on law minister Salman Khurshid’s efforts
to woo Muslims by pledging to enhance a jobs “quota” for backward Muslims.
There is a clear promise, in the Constitution, for affirmative action on the
basis of backwardness. And this has been legally upheld in the Indra Sawhney
case. Yet, the poll regulator viewed such a promise as an appeal on caste and
religious line, which is prohibited.
Khurshid’s promise was
not something new or radical. It stemmed from a Congress poll manifesto promise
of 2004, where it had talked of a reservation model for Muslims on the basis of
backwardness. The idea was to replicate a reservation system for Muslims
unveiled by Congress governments in states, such as Karnataka and whose
principle has been upheld by the law.
It is possible to
argue that political parties are increasingly using the social attributes of
Muslims as a disadvantaged minority to treat them as a political class.
Muslims themselves are
trying to legitimise such a political approach, after the November 2006 Sachar
Committee report, a high level government probe, brought out stark
disadvantages faced by the community.
The report found
Muslims ranking well below the national average on literacy, while their
poverty rates were only slightly better than “low-caste” Hindus. Muslims make
up 13.4% of India’s population but hold fewer than 5% of government posts.
Despite being self-employed at a far higher rate than other groups, their
access to credit is far lower than all other groups, the report found.
Ahmed of the CSDS says
one reason why political parties tend to address Muslims as a group has to do
with the “legal, constitutional discourse on religious minorities”. India’s
Constitution does lay down special safeguards for religious minorities, lending
them a social identity.
“It becomes obvious
then,” argues Ahmed, “for politicians to encash their group anxiety”.
Source: The Hindustan Times, New Delhi