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Islam and Politics ( 30 Aug 2011, NewAgeIslam.Com)

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Iran Warns of Regional Crisis if Syrian Regime Falls

Associated Press writer Aya Batrawy in Cairo contributed to this report filed from Beirut.

August 29, 2011  

President Assad is the only leader capable of staving off civil war which a serious possibility is given Syria’s potentially volatile mix of religious sects, writes Elizabeth A Kennedy

Syria’s closest ally, Iran, has warned that a power vacuum in Damascus could spark an unprecedented regional crisis while urging President Bashar Assad to listen to some of his people’s “legitimate demands.” Thousands of protesters, meanwhile, insisted they will defy tanks and bullets until Mr Assad goes.

The five-month-old uprising in Syria has left Mr Assad with few international allies — with the vital exception of Iran, which the US and other nations say is helping drive the deadly crackdown on dissent.

Last Saturday’s comments by Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi were a subtle shift in tone toward comprise by Tehran, which encouraged the Mr Assad regime to answer to its people while reiterating its support for its key ally. Most previous comments focused on a “foreign conspiracy” driving the unrest.

“Either in Yemen, Syria or any other country, people have some legitimate demands and governments should answer them as soon as possible,” Salehi said Saturday, according to the semi official ISNA news agency.

But Iran’s support for Mr Assad was clear. “If a vacuum is created in the Syrian ruling system, it will have unprecedented repercussions,” he said, adding that Syria has “sensitive neighbors” and that change in the country could lead to regional crisis.

Syria borders five other nations and controls water supplies to Iraq, Jordan and parts of Israel. Iran’s ties with Syria go far beyond the countries’ long-standing friendship in a region dominated by Arab suspicions of Tehran’s aims. Syria also is Iran’s conduit for aid to powerful anti-Israel proxies Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Should Mr Assad’s regime fall, it could rob Iran of a loyal Arab partner in a region profoundly realigned by uprisings demanding more freedom and democracy.

In an emergency meeting on Syria that ended early Sunday in Cairo, the Arab League decided to send its leader, Nabil Elaraby, to Damascus to seek a solution. In a statement, the league expressed “grave concern” over the bloodshed in Syria.

More than five months into the uprising against Mr Assad, the conflict has descended into a bloody stalemate.

Human rights groups say Mr Assad’s forces have killed more than 2,000 people since the uprising erupted in March, touched off by the wave of revolts sweeping the Arab world. The European Union imposed sanctions Wednesday against an elite unit of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, saying the Quds Force is providing equipment and other support to help crush the revolt.

Iran’s Guard forces were also used to put down a protest movement calling for political and social reform after Iran’s disputed presidential election in 2009.

Mr Assad has shrugged off international condemnation and calls for him to step down. Economic and other sanctions could slowly chip away at the regime in the long-term, however. Iran has offered unwavering support for Damascus, and there has been speculation that Tehran is providing funds to cushion Assad’s government as it burns through the $17 billion in foreign reserves that the government had at the start of the uprising.

But Iran cannot prop up the regime indefinitely.

Thousands of Syrians held protests overnight and early Saturday across the country of 22 million, according to the Local Coordination Committees, which helps organize the demonstrations.

The security presence was heavy by Saturday afternoon, particularly in the Damascus suburbs, the eastern city of Deir el-Zour, Homs in central Syrian and the coastal city of Latakia.

Sporadic shooting and arrest sweeps were reported. A day earlier, Syrian security forces killed at least two people during protests on the last Friday of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Friday has become the main day for protests.

The Government crackdown escalated dramatically at the start of Ramadan, a time of introspection, piety and dawn-to-dusk fasting. Muslims typically gather in mosques during the month for special nightly prayers after breaking the fast. The Assad Government used deadly force to prevent such large gatherings from turning into more anti-Government protests.

Mr Assad’s promises of reforms have been rejected as insincere by the opposition. Although the crackdown has led to broad condemnation, Mr Assad is in no immediate danger of falling. For one thing, the Syrian opposition movement is disparate and largely disorganized, without a strong leadership.

Mr Assad’s main base of support includes Syrians who have benefited financially from the regime, minority groups who feel they will be targeted if the Sunni majority takes over, and others who see no clear and safe alternative to Mr Assad.

Mr Assad, who inherited power from his father in 2000, has stacked key military posts with members of his minority Alawite sect.

Mr Assad’s backers portray him as the only leader capable of staving off civil war. And while most analysts say Mr Assad is exploiting those fears, few deny that such violence is a serious possibility. The country has a potentially volatile mix of religious groups and sects.

Associated Press writer Aya Batrawy in Cairo contributed to this report filed from Beirut.

Source: Associated Press