New Age Islam Special
Correspondent
23 November
2020
The success
of the AIMIM in the recently concluded assembly elections of Bihar has started
a debate on the role the AIMIM may play in the forthcoming assembly elections
in West Bengal where TMC is in power for the last ten years and there is no
anti-incumbency factor. Still political analysts believe that the AIMIM may
play spoilsport for TMC and other secular parties like the Congress and the
Left.
Many
analysts and secular apologists are of the opinion that Owaisi's AIMIM may help
the BJP win the elections in the same way it helped the NDA form government in
Bihar by wresting 4 seats from the Congress and RJD and one seat from the JDU.
The AIMIM
had fielded 14 candidates in the constituencies of the Seemanchal region. The
constituencies comprised Lok Sabha constituencies of Kishanganj, Araria,
Katihar and Purnia but it won 5 seats of only Kishanganj Lok Sabha constituency
where the Muslim population is between 60 and 70 percent.
The rest of
the constituencies have Muslim population less than 40 per cent and non-Muslim
population there is more than 60 per cent. That's why Owaisi's party did not
fare well there as Owaisi's Muslim centric campaign only strengthened Hindu
vote bank in these constituencies.
This makes
it clear that Owaisi eyed only the Muslim majority constituencies where the
Congress and RJD had hold over the Muslims.
This is the
reason political circles believe that in Bengal Owaisi will pursue the same
strategy of fielding candidates only in constituencies where Muslims have a
decisive population and where secular parties --- the Congress, the CPIM and
the TMC have their base. If it happens, the AIMIM may really be the cause of
concern for the ruling TMC.
To
understand the political situation of West Bengal first we should take a look
at the party position in the current West Bengal Assembly:
TMC: 222
CONG: 23
CPIM: 19
BJP: 16
FB: 2
RSP: 2
GJM: 2
RSP: 1
VACANT: 7
TOTAL : 294
If we have
a look at the number of seats Muslims have won across parties, we find that 59
Muslim candidates have won across parties. The party-wise position of Muslim
seats is as follows:
TMC: 32
CONG: 18
CPIM: 8
FORWARD
BLOC: 1
Now let's
find out, among these 59 Muslim candidates how many Muslim candidates were
challenged by Muslim candidates. Against 32 TMC Muslim candidates, 20 Muslim
candidates were runners up. Against 18 Muslim candidates of the Congress, 14
Muslim candidates were runners up. Against 8 Muslim candidates of the CPIM, 4
Muslim candidates were runners up. Against one Muslim candidate of Forward
Bloc, a BJP candidate was runner up. Such seats are 39 where Muslim candidates
were runners up against Muslim candidates.
Now obviously
Owaisi will field his Muslim candidates where both the winner and runner up
candidates were Muslims. He will field candidates in these 39 candidates making
the contest a quadrangular one. The BJP, the Left-Congress Alliance, TMC and
AIMIM. This will divide the secular votes. As a result of this divide on these
seats, either the AIMIM will win all the 39 seats or the BJP will win as a
result of the division of the secular votes.
In other
constituencies where Muslims are not a decisive factor but have a sizeable
population, the four pronged fight will only divide the Muslim votes among
three secular parties/alliances giving the BJP a clear victory. If it happens
in at least 60 seats, the TMC will lose 60 seats to the BJP. it will lose about
39 seats to the AIMIM or to the BJP from the Muslim dominated belt.
Therefore,
the TMC is likely to lose 100 seats to the BJP and AIMIM. This will leave the
TMC at only 122 seats. The required number to form the government is 148.
Why this
does not seem impossible is that in the current Lok Sabha, the BJP has 18 seats
from Bengal. The 18 Lok Sabha seats of BJP may realise into more than 80 MLAs.
This may not be considered far-fetched due to the politics of communal
polarisation to be pursued by the AIMIM and the BJP. An atmosphere of hate and
mistrust will be created by both the parties which will divide the electorate
on communal lines. A survey has already hinted at the possible upset for the
ruling party. The results of this survey are as follows:
TMC:
165-170
NDA:
107-130
CONG-LEFT:
22-30
According
to this projection a goverment of the BJP and AIMIM is a possibility.
The Left
and the Congress don't have much to offer in these elections. The Left has not
been able to win back the confidence of the people due to the populist measures
of the TMC government. The Congress does not believe in aggressive politics and
so has not been able to take advantage of the deteriorating law and order
situation or communal riots that have taken place during the TMC rule. Price
rise is also an issue which the Congress could not exploit. Instead it has
aligned with the Left parties to fight against the TMC and the BJP which seems
almost impractical and the alliance is unnatural. The Congress is not clear
about what it actually wants to achieve by forming an allaince with the Left
that suppressed and crushed it during its 33 year rule.
There is
widespread criticism against the AIMIM for its policy of dividing the Muslim
votes. The secularists fear that Owaisi will divide the Muslim votes and pave
the way for the victory of the BJP. By doing this, they hold only Muslims
responsible for the victory of the BJP. But the fact is that in the
constituencies where Muslim voters were almost non-existent, Hindus voted for
the BJP and rejected the Congress or other secular parties. The secular parties
demand of the Muslims a commitment to secularism but do not want to change
their position or policy vis a vis the BJP. The fact is that the BJP wins more
due to the division of secular votes than due to Hindu votes.
In almost
every election the secular parties contest independently claiming to be the
true flagbearer of secularism and cause the division of secular and minority
votes. The BJP's votes are not divided. Still the self proclaimed aecular
political parties do not see reason and don't change their poll strategy.
That's why
this time there is a suggestion from Furfura Sharif, a seat of Sufi Islam
having some hold among the Bengali Muslims of Bengal for an anti-BJP alliance
of all the secular parties in Bengal. Abbas Siddiquee, a representative of
Khanqah of Furfura Sharif has given a call for a TMC-Cong-Left alliance against
the BJP. He has announced that he was going to launch a political party and
invite TMC, Congress and the Left to form an alliance if they really want to defeat
the BJP. If a party does not join the allaince, it will be construed that the
party is hand in glove with the BJP, he said.
Even if
Furfura Sharif does not launch its party, it would be wise for the TMC, Cong
and the Left to join hands to defeat the BJP on a realistic seat sharing basis.
But it is a fact that the Left-Cong combine is more interested in TMC being
toppled than in preventing the BJP. If the BJP comes to power, it would be
easier for them to remove a communal party like BJP than to remove a secular
party like TMC in the next elections. This seems to be their political
strategy.
Therefore,
instead of blaming the Muslims for the division of votes, the political parties
should wake up to the new challenges and form alliances on a realistic assessment
of their vote base. Most of the time the alliance can't materialise due to
unrealistic claims by constituent parties on seat sharing. The results of Bihar
would have been different if the Congress had not insisted on 70 seats.
The secular
parties can prevent the BJP from coming to power only if they form a realistic
alliance against it. But that would mean the Cong and the Left will have to
accept the leadership of the TMC as the largest party and defeating the BJP
would mean saving the TMC government for another 5 years. Therefore, the
Cong-Left combine will prefer the BJP coming to power over saving the TMC
government
URL: https://newageislam.com/current-affairs/forthcoming-bengal-elections,-aimim-dilemma/d/123542
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