Taliban’s Opaque Negotiating Style and Afghan Peace
By MK
Bhadrakumar
Aug 18,
2020
THE
expectations are high that the long-awaited intra-Afghan peace talks will
commence in Doha this week. Washington has literally frog-marched the Afghan
government headed by Ashraf Ghani to the peace talks, overcoming its delaying
tactics. The US-Taliban pact, signed in Doha in February, had chalked out that
the talks would commence on March 10 and the amazing salience is that the pact
hasn’t lost traction.
Hopefully,
beyond the November election cycle, the US will keep its eyes on the ball,
given the Taliban’s opaque negotiating style. Pakistan’s role has become
crucial. India has done the right thing by moving into the shade.
The last
hurdle to the talks was overcome when the US arm-twisted Ghani to release the
final batch of around 400 Taliban prisoners who had been indicted for violent
crimes. In a face-saving formula, Ghani called a ‘Loya Jirga’ to legitimise his
turnaround on prisoner release. The Taliban feel vindicated. In remarks to the
Voice of America, the Taliban spokesman sought ‘flexibility’ by both sides,
saying, ‘This conflict cannot be solved unilaterally. If they want a solution,
then we too are looking for same, and God willing, we will hopefully find a solution.’
The US too
has injected an air of optimism. A statement by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
on August 6, anticipating the outcome of the Loya Jirga, noted that ‘The
Taliban have also committed to significantly reduce violence and casualties
during the talks where the parties will decide on a political map to end the…
war and agree on a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire. The United States
intends to hold the Taliban to these commitments.’
Pompeo
added that in a post-settlement era, the US would still keep its eye on the
ball — maintaining ‘substantial security assistance’; expanding its development
programmes; remaining committed to investment plans; and ‘improving regional
economic ties and connectivity,’ especially through joint infrastructure projects
funded by the aid agencies.
The US
estimates that the forthcoming intra-Afghan talks will be productive. Such
optimism stems also from the broadening political consensus in Kabul lately
towards the Doha talks. A triumvirate of Ghani, former president Hamid Karzai
and former chief executive officer Abdullah is driving the peace process on the
Afghan government side. It projects a level of unity and statesmanship
unthinkable until very recently.
On July 30,
in an appearance before the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Pompeo
divulged a timeline for the total troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. To quote
him, ‘We have entered into agreement (with the Taliban). We will go to zero,
we’ll get our forces out of there. I think it’s May of next year.’ Subsequently,
US Defence Secretary Mark Esper disclosed that US troops will be reduced to ‘a
number less than 5,000’ by November-end.
President
Trump has a deal here: the intra-Afghan talks dovetail with his re-election
campaign for November. That, in turn, becomes the surest guarantee of progress
at Doha. Trump is the winner in the near term.
Reports
indicated a major recasting of the Taliban negotiating team. The 20-member team
now has 13 figures drawn from the Taliban’s leadership council. The new
inductees include key figures such as Mullah Yaqoob (eldest son of Taliban
founder Mullah Omar), Sheikh Mohammad Qasim Turkman and Anas Haqqani Zadran.
Analysts have speculated that the rotation of senior religious scholars and
hardened military commanders in the Taliban’s team aims to build consensus
within the different wings of the movement, and enhances the authority of the
political office in Doha to speak for the entire organisation. Equally, it
could be aimed at strengthening Pakistan’s capacity to leverage the peace
process. But one crucial part still remains nebulous — the Taliban’s
perspectives on peace.
The
Taliban’s negotiating positions on reconciliation, power-sharing and governance
remain ambiguous. Several complex issues are involved here such as constitutional
reforms and political system; the Taliban’s concept of ‘inclusive’ government;
the restructuring of Afghan security forces and integration of Taliban
fighters; rights of women and minorities; the Taliban’s ambitions for a
post-war era, etc.
The Taliban
staunchly resist a public denunciation of al-Qaeda which compelled the US to
scale down expectations to a call to them to prevent the Afghan territory being
used to stage terrorist attacks on the US and its allies, and draw ‘red lines’
to that effect. The UN has highlighted the presence of terrorist groups on
Afghan soil, but the Taliban regard them as Muslim dissidents forced into
exile. The choice for the international community is to accept the Taliban’s
word and suspend disbelief.
Clearly,
the intra-Afghan dialogue has a formidable task ahead to prepare a road map for
the transition from armed insurgency to ‘Islamic governance’. The US hopes to
lean on Pakistan to navigate the way forward. But the US election in November
introduces new uncertainties.
The 2020
Democratic Platform which turns its back on the US’ ‘forever wars’ and
‘militarised’ foreign policy, says: “Democrats are committed to a durable and
inclusive peace settlement in Afghanistan that ensures that al-Qaeda isn’t
allowed to reconstitute, the Islamic State isn’t allowed to grow, and the
international community can help Afghans safeguard hard-fought gains,
especially for women and girls.” Hopefully, beyond the November election cycle,
the US will keep its eyes on the ball, given the Taliban’s opaque negotiating
style. The Taliban and Pakistan would probably trade compromises to extract
their highest priorities. A pattern was discernible at the Doha negotiations.
Therefore, Pakistan’s role becomes crucial. India has done the right thing by moving
into the shade. The India-Pakistan tensions need not cast a shadow on the
Afghan peace process. The two evergreen adversaries should agree that regional
peace and stability can be in their mutual interest.
MK
Bhadrakumar is former ambassador.
Original
Headline: Afghan peace on the horizon
Source; The Tribune India
URL: https://newageislam.com/war-terror/taliban’s-opaque-negotiating-style-afghan/d/122660