is no need to make any efforts to conclude that the attack on Aramco facilities
was carried out by Iran, and even if it was not (which is unlikely), it is
inevitable that Iran is the prime suspect.
has always pursued the policy of attack as the best means of defence, but these
attacks were never direct; they have always been through allies such as
Hizbollah, the Houthis and others, as well as its tactics to create crises in
one file to reach gains in another, as happened in the nuclear crisis and the
Aramco attack, Iran was unable to sell the idea that the Houthis were behind
the operation. Although Ansarullah has formally claimed the attack, military,
geographic and technological logic have completely rejected this claim. Saudi
Arabia has clearly accused Iran of having carried out the attack, backed by
statements from the United States immediately after the incident and followed
by British statements in the same context.
trying to read the scene, it is necessary to ask: Has Iran made its biggest
mistake, or was the attack a smart and deliberate move?
to answer this question, some important facts must be addressed. First, Tehran
is well aware that such an operation would place it in direct confrontation
with Saudi Arabia and the United States. Everyone knows that Washington will
tolerate anything but oil.
Iran tends to assume that the US administration, despite its hardline rhetoric
towards the Islamic Republic, does not really want to enter a direct war, even
if there is Saudi pressure in that direction.
third, Tehran knows very well that the countries in the region (except perhaps
Israel) will make every effort to prevent a war; this applies to countries such
as Iraq, Turkey and even the United Arab Emirates.
on these facts, it seems that Iran has sought to achieve two objectives with
the attack; the first is a painful military and economic strike to Saudi
Arabia, and the second is an attempt to drag Washington to the table for direct
dialogue on other files, namely the nuclear file and sanctions.
other hand, based on the same facts, Iran may have placed itself in a difficult
dilemma. Saudi Arabia, despite the pain caused by this attack, is able to
benefit from it significantly. Riyadh can now talk about the Iranian threat not
only to the region, but also to the world economy, as a threat that cannot be
Saudis will invest in the incident to assert that the regime in Tehran is
aggressive and does not want dialogue, and Iran and its allies will not be able
to deny this accusation.
Arabia’s allies, led by the United States, will take tougher positions on Iran.
They might push for UN Security Council sanctions against Tehran. If this
happens, it will push Tehran into a very difficult position, and it will have
major effects inside of Iran, and the danger to the Iranian regime will be from
coming days and weeks will answer the question: Was the Iranian attack on
Aramco the biggest sin of Tehran, or was it an intelligent and effective
Original Headline: Aramco
attack: A big sin or a smart move?
The Jordan Times