By Dr James M Dorsey
November
30, 2020
Increasing
strains between Pakistan and its traditional Arab allies, Saudi Arabia, and the
United Arab Emirates, is about more than Gulf states opportunistically
targeting India’s far more lucrative market.
At the
heart of the tensions, that potentially complicate Pakistan’s economic
recovery, is also India’s ability to enhance Gulf states’ capacity to hedge
their bets amid uncertainty about the continued US commitment to regional
security.
India is a
key member of the Quad that also includes the United States, Australia and
Japan and could play a role in a future more multilateral regional security
architecture in the Gulf.
Designed as
the backbone of an Indo-Pacific strategy intended to counter China across a
swath of maritime Asia, Gulf states are unlikely to pick sides but remain keen
on ensuring that they maintain close ties with both sides of the widening divide.
The
mounting strains with Pakistan are also the latest iteration of a global battle
for Muslim religious soft power that pits Saudi Arabia and the UAE against
Turkey, Iran, and Asian players like Indonesia’s Nahdlatul Ulama, the world’s
largest Islamic movement.
A
combination of geo- and domestic politics is complicating efforts by major
Muslim-majority states in Asia to walk a middle line. Pakistan, home to the
world’s largest Shiite Muslim minority, has reached out to Turkey while seeking
to balance relations with its neighbour, Iran.
The Pressure On Pakistan Is Multi-Fold.
Pakistani
Prime Minister Imran Khan charged recently that the United States and one other
unidentified country were pressing him to establish diplomatic relations with
Israel.
Pakistani
and Israeli media named Saudi Arabia as the unidentified country. Representing
the world’s second most populous Muslim nation, Pakistani recognition,
following in the footsteps of the UAE and Bahrain, would be significant.
Pakistan
twice in the last year signalled a widening rift with the kingdom.
Mr. Khan
had planned to participate a year ago in an Islamic summit hosted by Malaysia
and attended by Saudi Arabia’s detractors, Turkey, Iran and Qatar, but not the
kingdom and a majority of Muslim states. The Pakistani prime minister cancelled
his participation at the last moment under Saudi pressure.
More
recently, Pakistan again challenged Saudi leadership of the Muslim world when
Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi complained about lack of support of the
Saudi-dominated Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) for Pakistan in its
conflict with India over Kashmir. The OIC groups the world’s 57 Muslim-majority
nations. Mr. Qureshi suggested that his country would seek to rally support
beyond the realm of the kingdom.
Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on a visit to Pakistan earlier this year, made
a point of repeatedly reiterating his country’s support for Pakistan in the
Kashmir dispute.
By openly
challenging the kingdom, Mr. Qureshi was hitting Saudi Arabia where it hurts
most as it seeks to repair its image tarnished by allegations of abuse of human
rights, manoeuvres to get off on the right foot with incoming US
President-elect Joe Biden’s administration, and fends off challenges to its
leadership of the Muslim world.
Pakistan
has not helped itself by recently failing to ensure that it would be removed
from the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force, an international
anti-money laundering and terrorism finance watchdog, despite progress in the
country’s legal infrastructure and enforcement.
Grey
listing causes reputational damage and makes foreign investors and
international banks more cautious in their dealings with countries that have
not been granted a clean bill of health.
Responding
to Mr. Qureshi’s challenge, Saudi Arabia demanded that Pakistan repay a US$1
billion loan extended to help the South Asian nation ease its financial crisis.
The kingdom has also dragged its feet on renewing a US$3.2 billion oil credit
facility that expired in May.
In what
Pakistan will interpret as UAE support for Saudi Arabia, the Emirates last week
included Pakistan on its version of US President Donald J. Trump’s Muslim
travel ban.
Inclusion
on the list of 13 Muslim countries whose nationals will no longer be issued
visas for travel to the UAE increases pressure on Pakistan, which relies
heavily on exporting labour to generate remittances and alleviate unemployment.
Some
Pakistanis fear that a potential improvement in Saudi-Turkish relations could
see their country fall through geopolitical cracks.
In the
first face-to-face meeting between senior Saudi and Turkish officials since the
October 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the kingdom’s consulate
in Istanbul, the two countries’ foreign ministers, Prince Faisal bin Farhan and
Mevlut Cavusoglu, held bilateral talks this weekend, on the side-lines of an
OIC conference in the African state of Niger.
“A strong
Turkey-Saudi partnership benefits not only our countries but the whole region,”
Mr. Cavusoglu tweeted after the meeting.
The meeting
came days after Saudi King Salman telephoned Mr. Erdogan on the eve of a
virtual summit hosted by the kingdom of the Group of 20 (G20) that brings
together the world’s largest economies.
“The Muslim
world is changing and alliances are shifting and entering new, unchartered
territories,” said analyst Sahar Khan.
Added
Imtiaz Ali, another analyst: “In the short term, Riyadh will continue
exploiting Islamabad’s economic vulnerabilities… But in the longer term, Riyadh
cannot ignore the rise of India in the region, and the two countries may become
close allies – something that will mostly likely increase the strain on
Pakistan-Saudi relations.”
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Dr. James M. Dorsey is an award-winning
journalist and a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S.
Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore and the National
University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute
Original Headline: The Muslim world’s changing dynamics:
Pakistan struggles to retain its footing
Source: The Countercurrent
URL: https://newageislam.com/the-war-within-islam/strain-pakistan-saudi-relations-muslim/d/123625