relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia has been warming up for some time.
Both countries were alarmed by what their respective governments saw as the
Obama administration’s weakness in the face of a rising Iran. Both opposed the
Iran nuclear agreement (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA). Both
want to see much stricter action taken against Tehran’s spreading influence,
not least in Syria. But with all of that said, Israel—which does not import
anything from the Gulf—would prefer not to interfere directly in the
Saudi-Iranian conflict, as it is unlikely to benefit from such interference and
could in fact be seriously harmed.
Saudi-aligned Gulf states would like to reinvigorate Washington’s interest in
the region, but this is a harder sell than it once was—and not only because
Americans have tired of military engagement in distant conflicts. President
Donald Trump stated outright that America does not need Gulf oil, and asserts
that the beneficiaries of this trade should look after themselves with only
general support and backing from the US.
the challenge facing Riyadh is its leadership’s tarnished image. Crown Prince
Muhammad bin Salman was widely (if ineffectually) condemned for allegedly
ordering the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and the kingdom is
increasingly criticized for its conduct in the war in Yemen. One of the few
plays open to Riyadh is to make peaceful overtures toward Israel, a move likely
to boost its stock in Washington even as it offers other potential benefits.
Arabia is facing serious consequences resulting from its clashes with Shiite
Iran and its proxies. About half the country’s oil production was disrupted—5
million barrels a day—as a result of drone strikes by Yemen’s Iran-backed
Houthi rebels on the extensive Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Abqaiq on
September 14, 2019. According to the website of Al-Masirah, a Houthi-run
satellite news channel, the group vows additional attacks if Saudi coalition
forces do not withdraw from Yemen.
proved that Riyadh is vulnerable to attacks from Tehran and its proxies.
Further Houthi strikes on the Saudi oil business would be disastrous because
oil is the central pillar of the kingdom’s economy and the cornerstone of its
development. According to the IMF’s latest data, oil receipts accounted for
around 85% of Saudi Arabia’s exports and almost 90% of fiscal revenue, and the
oil sector comprises over 40% of overall GDP. Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit
each year, depending on the price of Brent crude, is $40-60 billion.
Arabia urgently needs an alternative export route for its oil, and that is a
further reason for Riyadh’s overtures toward Jerusalem. The kingdom is already
talking to Israel about a pipeline to Eilat, only 40km away, for the import of
Israeli natural gas. By extension, this route could be developed as an
alternative way to get Saudi oil to the deep harbor of Haifa for export to
Europe and the West. This would be a much safer, faster, and more secure way to
guarantee Saudi exports to the west, as it would avoid Iranian aggression at
the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. It would also
save the considerable transit fees involved in crossing the Suez Canal.
could open a new world of export markets for Saudi Arabia. At the moment, the
kingdom is looking to import natural gas, but in time, it may move to develop
its own natural gas reserves, which are the fifth-largest in the world.
developing its natural gas reserves, but does not possess enough to justify
building an export pipeline to Europe. A link with Saudi Arabia, however, could
tip the scales in favor of an Eastern Mediterranean pipeline, which could be
extremely lucrative for both partners.
not Saudi Arabia is pressing for war with Iran, its options to avoid one are
narrowing. The kingdom, which is within range of Iranian missiles, has much
more to lose from such a war than does Iran. “Saudi Arabia will not support a
war with Iran that has a Saudi return address on it,” said Joshua Landis,
director of the Centre for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.
continues to take advantage of the many disruptions across the Middle East to
spread its influence. It is forming a land bridge to connect Iran through Iraq
to Syria, the Israeli border at the Golan, and Lebanon (the “Shiite Crescent”).
Shiites make up just 10% of the world’s Muslim population but are a massive
majority in Iran, which has used Shiite movements elsewhere to assert its
Shiite Crescent would represent a serious challenge to Saudi interests in the
region. It would threaten vital trade routes and the security of the region as
a whole. It would make intervention in Iranian-dominated areas even more
complicated, given the potential for escalation between Saudi Arabia and
Iran-backed forces. More broadly, the Iranian presence fuels a growing
sectarianism that will pose a threat to regional stability for years to come.
Riyadh will do what it can to mitigate that threat, even going so far as to
extend a friendly hand to Israel.
Dr. Frank Musmar is a financial and performance
Headline: Saudi Arabia and Israel: Who Needs Whom?
Source: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic