By S. Binodkumar
Singh
July 27, 2020
On July 24, 2020, four Afghan
National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) personnel were killed and four
were injured in a Taliban attack on their outpost at Kharistan village in Ghor
Province.
On July 21, 2020, seven ANDSF
personnel were killed when the Taliban attacked security checkpoints in
TakhtaPul District of Kandahar Province.
On July 20, 2020, eight ANDSF
personnel were killed and nine others were injured in a suicide car bombing in
the Sayed Abad District of Maidan Wardak Province. The Taliban claimed
responsibility for the attack.
On July 20, 2020, eight ANDSF
personnel were killed and five others wounded when Taliban militants attacked
their checkpoint in the Shinwari neighborhood of Kunduz city, the provincial
capital of Kunduz Province.
On July 16, 2020, nine ANDSF
personnel were killed in a Taliban attack in Dawlat Abad District of Balkh
Province.
On July 13, 2020, 14 ANDSF
personnel were killed and two were wounded as the Taliban stormed the Security
Forces’ (SFs’) checkpoints in Imam-Saib and Chahardara Districts of Kunduz
Province.
The peace deal was
signed after 18 months of talks in Doha [Sorin Furcoi/Al Jazeera]
----
Even after 149 days of the
signing of the US-Taliban agreement on February 28, 2020, in Doha, Qatar, the Taliban has not
reduced its violence. According to partial data collected by the South
Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), after the signing of the US-Taliban
agreement, at least 529 ANDSF personnel have been killed and 134 others injured
across the country (data till July 26, 2020). Prior to the US-Taliban
agreement, in the corresponding period, 386 ANDSF personnel were killed and 41
others were injured across the country.
The SF fatalities figure of 529
since February 29, 2020, however, are likely to be grossly underestimated.
Indeed, Jawid Faisal, a spokesman for the Office of National Security Council
(ONSC), on June 22, 2020, tweeted,
The past week was the deadliest of the past 19
years. Taliban carried out 422 attacks in 32 provinces, martyring 291 ANDSF
members and wounding 550 others. Taliban's commitment to reduce violence is
meaningless, and their actions inconsistent with their rhetoric on peace. |
A report dated July 23, 2020, said that according to
the statistics provided by the Afghan Government, after the US-Taliban
agreement, 50 security incidents took place per day on average in Afghanistan.
The Government data shows that the Taliban and other anti-Government groups are
behind 40 attacks a day while the other 10 are attributed to the ANDSF
and Operation Resolute Support forces.
According to a UN report released
on June 17, 2020, between February 7 and May 14, 2020, United Nations
Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) recorded 5,543 security-related
incidents.
Sources indicate that Afghanistan
recorded a total of 8,104 fatalities, including 3,156 SF personnel, between
March 1, 2020, and June 30, 2020.
According to the Afghanistan
Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC)’s report on civilian casualties
published on July 14, 2020, on average 16 civilians have been killed or wounded
every day across the country in the first half of 2020. A total of 1,213
civilians have been killed and 1,744 wounded in 880 separate incidents during
the first six months of the year, according to the AIHRC’s report. The AIHRC
said Taliban attacks were responsible for 48.5 per cent of the recorded
civilian casualties. Government forces are behind 15.5 per cent of the
casualties, the Islamic State, 6.3 per cent, and international forces 2.3 per
cent. Attacks by unknown perpetrators accounted for 26.7 per cent of the
casualties.
There have been rising reports of
security threats to the country’s main highways. The Herat – Islam Qala
Highway, a key highway used to transport most of the imports from Iran remains
unsafe for passengers, Government officials and commercial trucks, due to the
presence of terrorists. Yunus Qazizada, head of the Chamber of Commerce and
Investment in Herat, observed on April 25, 2020, “We are tired of the lack of
security on Herat – Islam Qala Highway. Businessmen cannot travel on this
highway.”
On July 6, 2020, Afghan Security
Forces clashed with the Taliban at multiple parts of the Baghlan – Balkh
Highway, a key route that connects Kabul with the northern and north-eastern
Provinces. The clashes started after the Taliban installed a ‘checkpoint’ on
the Baghlan-Balkh Highway in the Chashma-e-Shir area and started extorting
funds from truck drivers. 16 Taliban militants were killed in the clashes.
On July 7, 2020, Afghan Security
Forces had a fierce battle with the Taliban on the Pul-e-Khumri – Samangan
highway after the insurgents tried to block the road. Seven Taliban militants
were killed in a fierce battle.
Meanwhile, the eleventh report of
the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team of the
United Nations (UN), released on May 27, 2020, stated that the Taliban had
failed to fulfil one of the core parts of the US-Taliban agreement, namely that
it would break ties with Al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda has 400 to 600 operatives active in
12 Afghan Provinces, and is running training camps in the east of the country,
according to the report. On July 13, 2020, seven ANDSF personnel were killed
and two others were injured in a joint assault by the Taliban, Al-Qaeda and the
Islamic State on a checkpoint in the Arghanjkhwa District of Badakhshan
Province.
Unhappy over the deteriorating
security situation, some Meshrano Jirga (House of Elders)
members expressed their concerns over growing incidents of violence in the
countryon July 5, 2020. NabiaMustafazada, a lawmaker from Jawzjan Province,
noted, “The security situation deteriorates with each passing day, there is
instability in the centre and districts. People are worried due to insecurity,
targeted attacks, blasts and worsening economic condition.” Similarly, Gul Ahmad
Azeemi, a lawmaker from Farah Province, argued, “Individuals who want to
sabotage peace process should be stopped; otherwise peace will not be restored
in the country.” Meanwhile, the Chairman of the House, Fazal HadiMuslimyar,
observed, “Government and the people of Afghanistan wanted peace but violence
should decline and people on both side working against peace should be stopped
from their designs.”
Emphasizing the continuing
violence by the Taliban, President Ashraf Ghani, while speaking on the first day
of the four-day meeting titled "Strengthening Regional and International
Consensus" attended by representatives of at least 20 countries and
international organizations, including the United States and the UN in Kabul on
July 7, 2020, warned that "the peace process will face serious challenges
if the Taliban continue the war." Similarly, on July 10, 2020, Abdullah
Abdullah, head of the High Council for National Reconciliation, at the end of
the four-day meeting, criticized the Taliban for not ending violence in the
country and thus preventing the peace process from moving forward. Criticizing
the Taliban for the escalating violence, Presidential Palace spokesman
SediqSediqqi tweeted on July 12, 2020,
The recent escalation of Taliban violence in cities,
attacks on security forces, roadside bombings and targeting government
employees have damaged the hopes and expectations of the people and the
international community for dialogue and making peace. It is time for the
Taliban to renounce violence and enter the peace process in a real way. |
Meanwhile, rejecting the call for reduction in
violence as a precondition to start the intra-Afghan talks, Taliban spokesman
Zabiullah Mujahid declared, on July 12, 2020, “The prisoner exchange process
must be completed and intra-Afghan negotiations launched immediately. This is
the most correct and reasonable path towards a resolution.” Once again, blaming
the Afghan Government for delays in the intra-Afghan negotiations, Shahabuddin
Delawar, a key member of the Taliban’s office in Qatar, speaking during a
virtual discussion with other Afghans, on July 19, 2020, asserted, “The
responsibility of all bloody incidents over the last four months is on the
Afghan government because it should have released our 5,000 prisoners by March
15. We were ready to release their 1,000 prisoners in 10 days.” Based on the
peace agreement between the US and Taliban, Afghan Government is required to
release 5,000 Taliban prisoners and the Taliban to release 1,000 Government
prisoners, before the intra-Afghan talks. So far, the Afghan Government has
released 4,250 out of 5,000 prisoners, and the Taliban has released 861
Government prisoners out of 1,000.
Revealing one of the main reasons
for not releasing 597 of the 5,000 inmates that were to be freed as part of the
confidence-building measures established in the US-Taliban agreement, Ahmad
Rashid Totakhil, head of the General Directorate of Prisons, on July 5, 2020,
stated, “Murderers are on the Taliban list and the government has resisted. It
is a victims’ rights issue and the law does not allow releasing someone under
the pretext of being a Taliban member, who is charged with murder or even moral
crimes like rape.” The Afghan Government has asked the Taliban to provide a new
list for the prisoners who have not been released so far, but the Taliban has
insisted on the release of their prisoners based on the existing list. It is
useful to recall that the Afghan Government was not a party to the negotiations
or the deal in the US-Taliban peace agreement, and is now being forced to
deliver on concessions made by the US.
Meanwhile, in defiance of their
commitments not to re-join the war, a number of Taliban prisoners who were
released by the Afghan Government have reportedly reintegrated with their
colleagues on the battlefield. On July, 21, 2020, a Taliban fighter, identified
as Shirullah also known as Captain, recently freed from Afghan Government
custody as part of peace efforts, was rearrested in the Kofab District of
Badakshan Province during an attack on the ANDSF. Again, on July 22, 2020,
ANDSF personnel arrested two Taliban prisoners who had been released from the
Bagram prison, while they were trying to stage attack on an ANDSF convoy on the
Jawzjan-Balkh Highway. Jawid Faisal, a spokesman for the Office of the National
Security Council (ONSC) on July 23, 2020, revealed,
The Taliban fighters signed on the papers and
committed that they will not return to the war, regrettably some of these
inmates have returned to the war fronts in defiance of the expectations of
the Afghan people. |
Condemning the Taliban for the surge in violence, US
special representative on Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, asserted on July 14,
2020, "Violence has been high, especially in recent days and weeks. The
Taliban's attacks contradict their commitment to reduce violence until a
permanent ceasefire is reached in intra-Afghan talks. "Similarly,
describing the Taliban-led violence as unacceptable as efforts are underway to
find a negotiated political settlement to the war in the country, North
Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Senior Civilian Representative in
Afghanistan, Ambassador Stefano Pontecorvo, observed on July 21, 2020,
I would say that the main obstacle to peace now is
the unacceptable level of violence from the part of the Taliban. This has
been mentioned by everybody who takes an interest in Afghanistan and beyond.
Taliban's level of violence is absolutely unacceptable; they are not creating
the conditions for getting to the Peace table. Taliban have to demonstrate
that they are serious about peace. |
The US-Taliban Agreement as well as the recent Eid ceasefire initiated
by the Taliban have failed to reduce the violence. While calibrating violence
may be part of the Taliban's strategy to join the negotiations in a position of
strength, the present escalation jeopardizes the entire peace process. Clearly,
the Taliban's calculus is shifting, even as it consolidates its relationship
with the Al Qaeda, and makes a concentrated bid to seize control of widening
swathes of the country. As the peace deal unravels, the imprudence of the US initiative
and the hasty withdrawal of US Forces from Afghanistan is increasingly
apparent. The Taliban's aims have always been maximalist, its engagement in
negotiations tactical and opportunistic, and its understanding of the weakness
of its adversaries - both domestic and foreign - profound.
S. Binodkumar Singh is a Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
Original Headline:
Source: South Asia Intelligence Review
URL: https://newageislam.com/radical-islamism-jihad/the-calculus-violence-afghanistan-after/d/122481
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