Pakistan Press on: Trump, Gender, Triangles, EU: New Age Islam's Selection, 22 April 2025
By New Age Islam Edit Desk
22 April 2025
Can Trump Learn from The Past?
The Petroleum Levy Burden
Let’s Save the Snow
A Question of Gender
Clash of Conflicting Triangles
Invisible Siege
EU: New Realities
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Can Trump Learn from The Past?
By Abdul Sattar
April 22, 2025
American President Donald Trump seems to have a dogged determination to prevent China from surpassing the US. He is believed to be making hectic efforts by slapping brutal tariffs on the communist country to ensure that the US global hegemony is not challenged. His policy of hobnobbing with Russia and holding an olive branch to Iran also suggests that he would like to isolate the second biggest economic power in the world.
Trump pretends to be worried about ordinary Americans, millions of whom lost jobs because of globalisation and the shifting of industry from the US to various states around the world. He seems to have a strong desire to bring back those manufacturing units which were shifted to other regions of the world in search of cheap labour and limitless profit. Trump seems to believe that Chinese policies are responsible for the US’s declining industrial base and that European allies equally share the blame for their policy of taking advantage of ‘American altruism’.
However, critics believe the tariff regime installed by Trump cannot help the sole superpower, nor will the bullying tactics revitalise American industries. It is said the US needs to carry out introspection, pondering over the factors leading to China’s rise as a global power. Lambasting states or acting as a truculent bully cannot provide millions of Americans with employment, housing and education. Only a radical shift in policies can help the Republican administration extend help and succour to the vast majority of Americans who have witnessed a lot of misery since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Political observers are of the view that one of the factors enabling China to make tremendous strides in science and technology was its focus on the productive sector. While the US spent over $24 trillion on wars, defence and conflicts since 1945, China hardly indulged itself in any war wholeheartedly since the communist revolution in 1949, allocating massive amounts of capital for developing infrastructure, improving education, promoting research and learning from other advanced countries.
This is perhaps the first time in the history of humankind that a country rose from an agricultural base, completed an industrial phase within a few decades and hit the height of space technology in another few decades. It is now one of the top military powers, besides being the second-largest economy in the world. It left the UK, France, Japan, Germany and a number of other countries behind within 75 years, preparing to defeat the mighty US.
The rise of China could be defined in one sentence: avoidance of conflicts. Unlike China, the US though has been involved in more than 32 conflicts since 1945. Its propensity to indulge in conflicts has been so profound that many intellectuals and prudent politicians have called it the most belligerent nation on earth. In 2018, former president of the US Jimmy Carter called his country “the most warlike nation in the history of the world" due to a desire to impose American values on other countries. He wrote a letter to Trump in 2019 telling him that China is investing its resources into projects such as high-speed railroads instead of defence spending. It may be mentioned that Carter was the one who oversaw the normalisation of ties with communist China.
Carter revealed this while addressing a gathering at a local church in Georgia. It is said Trump also called the former Nobel laureate, seeking his advice on China. Addressing the gathering, Carter said, "How many miles of high-speed railroad do we have in this country?" Zero, the congregation answered. "We have wasted, I think, $3 trillion", Carter said, referring to American military spending. "China has not wasted a single penny on war, and that's why they're ahead of us. In almost every way.
"And I think the difference is if you take $3 trillion and put it in American infrastructure, you'd probably have $2 trillion left over. We'd have a high-speed railroad. We'd have bridges that aren't collapsing. We'd have roads that are maintained properly. Our education system would be as good as that of, say, South Korea or Hong Kong". It is also said that Carter mentioned America’s propensity for waging wars many times. He was quoted as saying in 2018 that in America, there were 226 years of wars since its independence, which took place 242 years ago, thus leaving only 16 years of peace.
It is said that global powers have a strange penchant for picking fights and invading countries. For instance, between 1815, after the Napoleonic Wars, and 1914, the outbreak of WWI, the UK was at war for all but fifteen years. That’s 85 per cent of the time. For France, the picture is very similar, albeit a little less so. During the same period, the country was at war for 185 years out of 242, amounting to almost 80 per cent of the time.
The US has been repeating the mistakes of other global powers. If Trump really wants to make a difference, then he needs to put his own house in order instead of lambasting other states. America is the richest country in the world, brimming with wealth and opulence. It has enough resources to arrange housing for every citizen, providing them free education and medical treatment, besides using its unimaginable material prosperity for the greater good of mankind.
All it has to do is break the shackles of slavery that have been put around its neck by vested interests who want to see the global power in a perpetual state of war. Threats of war and annexations against Palestine, Iran, Iceland and Canada will only serve the interests of those whose wealth depends on these perpetual conflicts. For such vested interests and those who spend on the non-productive sector, US President Dwight Eisenhower had said while addressing the North American Society of News editors in April 1953, “Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies in the final sense a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone, it is spending the sweat of its labourers, the genius of its scientists, the hope of children.”
But despite all the economic hardships that the American people are facing, Trump and his tedious acolytes are in no mood to seek permanent peace in the world. They are either hurling threats at other states themselves or bankrolling those rogue states that are threatening the very existence of other nations. This could turn out to be catastrophic.
The US badly needs heavy investment in infrastructure, which might go some way in stimulating its economy. Citing various reports, the Council on Foreign Relations revealed in 2023 that delays caused by traffic congestion in the US alone cost the economy over $87 billion in 2018. The report noted that US civil aviation directly supports 2.5 million US jobs, and international tourism brings in up to $180 billion in annual tax revenue. “However, flight delays cost the US economy billions of dollars each year, including $33 billion in 2019.”
Social issues are also tearing down communities in America. For instance, over 46 million American students are in the trap of over $1.6 trillion in debt, while more than 770,000 are facing some form of homelessness. In 2022, the country witnessed 1.89 million high school dropouts. These problems could be addressed if Trump chooses to pay heed to the advice of these two former presidents.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1303799-can-trump-learn-from-the-past
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The Petroleum Levy Burden
By Yousuf Nazar
April 22, 2025
The Pakistani government’s decision to raise the petroleum levy to Rs80 per litre – via amendments to the Petroleum Products (Petroleum Levy) Ordinance, 1961 – has dashed public expectations of a Rs10 per litre cut in fuel prices.
This move, made to meet IMF targets, reflects Pakistan’s continuing dependence on regressive, inflationary taxation. It diminishes consumer purchasing power, restricts growth and shifts the burden of fiscal consolidation onto ordinary citizens.
While the government prioritises loan conditions, it shows little intent to rein in extravagant spending on official perks, a bloated bureaucracy, and unchecked corruption, laying bare a systemic inequity in fiscal governance. However, it has no shame in asking the public to ‘sacrifice’ in the name of ‘development’, because it makes the dubious claim that the funds raised through the increase will be spent on construction projects in Sindh and Balochistan.
The petroleum levy is a major source of federal revenue. Classified as non-tax income, it bypasses provincial sharing under the National Finance Commission (NFC) award. In the first half of FY2024–25 (July–December 2024), it generated Rs550 billion. The new rate is expected to add Rs321 billion to Rs400 billion, with total annual revenue projected at Rs1.821 trillion.
This aligns with IMF requirements under the $1.3 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility, which also proposes a Rs 5 per litre carbon levy from July 2025. These steps support Pakistan’s broader $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF), approved in September 2024, which demands a 3.0 per cent reduction in the fiscal deficit over three years – two-thirds of which is to be achieved in FY2024–25, mainly via indirect taxes like the petroleum levy.
Though effective in raising revenue, this policy exacts a high economic price. It nullifies the benefits of falling global oil prices. Inflation averaged 5.25 per cent from July 2024 to March 2025 – down from 27.06 per cent a year earlier – thanks to a high base effect, lower global commodity prices and a stable exchange rate.
But the levy hike threatens to reverse this trend, as structurally higher fuel prices elevate transportation costs and, in turn, the prices of essentials like food, clothing, and household goods. Since food makes up nearly 40 per cent of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and transport costs are a major part of the food supply chain, fuel inflation hits the poorest hardest.
For low-income families – many of whom spend half their income on food and transport – this move is deeply regressive. Rather than passing on the benefits of global oil price declines, the government has imposed a hidden tax, disguised as a price adjustment, to satisfy IMF targets while shielding the privileged elite.
Businesses, too, face growing pressures. Pakistan’s large-scale manufacturing sector contracted 3.59 per cent in FY2024, and higher diesel costs will raise production and logistics expenses. Agriculture, a key driver of Q4 FY2024’s 3.07 per cent GDP growth, relies heavily on diesel-powered machinery. Increased fuel costs will squeeze farmers’ margins, threatening rural livelihoods and food security. The logistics sector, vital for trade and supply chains, faces similar pressures, with rising costs eroding competitiveness and raising prices.
Economic growth remains tepid. The average growth rate for the first half of the current fiscal year stood at approximately 1.5 per cent, far below the population growth rate, highlighting the economy's inability to generate sufficient jobs to address the expanding youth labour force.
The levy discourages consumption and investment in an already strained economy, where the investment-to-GDP ratio sits at just 13.14 per cent. The government projects 3.6 per cent growth for FY2025, but it is highly unlikely that it will meet this target.
External challenges further complicate matters. Although the current account deficit has narrowed, the improvement is largely due to record remittances and not robust exports. With only modest export growth expected in FY2026, higher fuel costs could weaken the competitiveness of key sectors like textiles, which generate 60 per cent of export earnings.
This situation highlights fundamental issues of fairness and governance. While the government leans heavily on the petroleum levy, it has failed to curb wasteful spending. Official luxuries continue unchecked.
Administrative costs rose 15 per cent in the FY2024–25 budget, and the civil service, employing over 1.4 million people, remains bloated and inefficient, costing the economy an estimated 2.0 per cent of GDP. Corruption drains billions annually, yet serious accountability remains elusive and politicised, largely used as a tool of victimisation.
This unwillingness to lead by example puts an unfair burden on ordinary citizens. The poor are forced to absorb rising costs while the elite are insulated. The government justifies the levy as a fiscal necessity yet loses billions through untargeted subsidies and inefficient state-owned enterprises. IMF recommendations to broaden the tax base – especially by taxing under-contributing sectors like real estate, agriculture and retail – have seen little progress, leaving the petroleum levy as a blunt, one-size-fits-all solution.
The IMF’s influence is undeniable. The levy hike is part of its push to cut Pakistan’s fiscal deficit from 6.7 per cent of GDP in FY2025 to 3.7 per cent by FY2027. Conditions under the EFF, such as eliminating exemptions and expanding the tax net, are intended to stabilise the economy and unlock future financing. However, this strategy risks public backlash, especially when declining global oil prices should have allowed for consumer relief.
Long-term overreliance on regressive taxes is unsustainable. It may provide short-term revenue, but it hampers growth, reduces demand and increases public discontent. Pakistan’s interest-to-revenue ratio is among the highest globally, signalling a debt crisis in the making. Without serious reforms – like taxing the informal economy and improving public sector efficiency – the levy will only deepen inequality and economic distortion.
A more balanced approach is urgently needed. The government should implement a fuel pricing formula with caps on embedded taxes, ensuring global price drops benefit the public. Cutting non-essential expenditures – starting with a 20 per cent reduction in administrative costs – would show fiscal responsibility. Privatising loss-making state-owned enterprises could help, though success continues to be elusive due to low investor confidence.
In the end, securing economic recovery will require more than IMF compliance. It demands structural reform, better governance and a fairer distribution of the tax burden – one that doesn’t demand sacrifice from the poor while protecting entrenched interests.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1303800-the-petroleum-levy-burden
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Let’s Save the Snow
By Soha Nisar
April 22, 2025
On this Earth Day 2025, as the world faces unprecedented challenges brought on by climate change, the urgency of addressing environmental crises becomes more pressing than ever.
Among the most critical issues is the rapid melting of glaciers, particularly in mountain ranges like the Hindukush Himalayas. For countries like Pakistan, the loss of these glaciers has profound consequences for water security, agriculture, and livelihoods.
As glaciers recede, the Indus River, which sustains millions of Pakistanis, faces diminishing runoff, leading to water shortages that exacerbate the country’s already strained water resources. This Earth Day, it’s time for us to act decisively to save the snow, secure our water and ensure a resilient future for Pakistan.
Pakistan, home to some of the world’s most iconic mountain ranges, relies heavily on glacier melt for its water supply. The Indus River Basin, which is essential for Pakistan’s agriculture, industry and daily consumption, depends on meltwater from the glaciers of the Karakoram and the Himalayas. As these glaciers retreat, it becomes increasingly difficult to predict water availability, putting millions at risk.
But this problem isn’t isolated to Pakistan alone. The Hindukush Himalayas, home to over 50,000 glaciers, are vital to the entire region, serving as water sources for more than 1.6 billion people across Asia.
The recent Regional Experts' Workshop on Developing Mountain Indicators for the UNFCCC Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), which I attended in Kathmandu, Nepal, was a significant step towards addressing the challenges of climate adaptation in mountainous regions. Organised by ICIMOD, the workshop brought together policymakers, scientists, and experts from across the Hindukush Himalayan region to develop context-specific indicators aimed at strengthening the resilience of mountain ecosystems under the GGA framework. These indicators will help guide countries, including Pakistan, to develop tailored adaptation strategies that can protect mountain ecosystems, ensure water security, and promote long-term sustainability.
Mountains are the lifeblood of our water systems, but they are increasingly threatened by climate change. The IPCC’s findings confirm that glaciers are retreating at rates far beyond what was previously expected. In Pakistan, where over 90 per cent of the country’s water is used for agriculture, the consequences of melting glaciers are devastating. In the future, reduced glacier melt will not only impact agricultural production but will also lead to food insecurity, energy shortages and environmental degradation. Without proactive measures, these cascading impacts will only intensify.
The GGA framework offers a vital opportunity for Pakistan to rethink its approach to water management, glacier conservation, and climate adaptation. However, to truly make an impact, Pakistan must embrace innovative and sustainable solutions that go beyond traditional methods. During the workshop, experts highlighted key mountain adaptation indicators that are essential for monitoring the health of glaciers and improving water management.
For instance, developing early warning systems (EWS) to predict glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and other water-related disasters is critical. Pakistan must invest in real-time monitoring technologies, including satellite data, remote sensing, and local community-based monitoring, to track the health of glaciers and prevent disasters before they strike.
One of the most crucial aspects of the workshop was the development of context-specific indicators that take into account the unique challenges faced by mountainous regions. For Pakistan, this means identifying and addressing climate change drivers such as shifting rainfall patterns, decreasing snowmelt, and land degradation. These indicators must be integrated into Pakistan’s National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and climate policies to ensure that the country can effectively manage its water resources, protect ecosystems and build resilience against future climate shocks.
But addressing these challenges isn’t just about technology and data but about inclusive solutions that engage local communities, especially those in rural, mountain areas. Many of these communities have lived in harmony with the mountains for generations, and their knowledge of traditional water management systems can be invaluable.
Pakistan should focus on integrating traditional ecological knowledge with modern science to create sustainable water management systems. Community-led initiatives, such as restoring traditional water systems and reviving wetland ecosystems, can significantly contribute to increasing water availability and maintaining ecosystem health.
Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) strategies, such as reforestation, wetland restoration and the conservation of biodiversity, are also critical to mitigating the impacts of glacier loss. These ecosystems act as natural buffers, regulating water flows, reducing soil erosion, and providing a habitat for wildlife. Pakistan’s mountainous regions are home to unique ecosystems that play a crucial role in maintaining water quality and supply. Protecting these areas should be a national priority, with clear policies aimed at ecosystem restoration and biodiversity conservation.
Another innovative solution to consider is the development of climate-risk insurance schemes. These schemes could provide financial protection to vulnerable communities, farmers, and industries that rely on water from glaciers.
For example, crop insurance could be tailored to include climate risks, ensuring that farmers in mountain regions can recover quickly after floods, droughts, or other climate events. Climate bonds and other financial instruments could also help fund large-scale adaptation projects in mountain ecosystems, promoting both economic growth and environmental sustainability.
However, financial mechanisms alone will not be enough. Pakistan must also focus on regional cooperation to address the transboundary nature of water resources. The Indus River Basin requires collaborative efforts between Pakistan, India and China to ensure that water-sharing agreements are respected and adaptation strategies are aligned across borders. The GGA framework provides an opportunity to enhance regional collaboration, ensuring that all parties work together to address shared climate risks.
As Pakistan moves forward, climate adaptation strategies must focus on building resilience, protecting ecosystems and ensuring water security for all. This includes not only government action but also private sector involvement, NGO collaboration and community engagement. By aligning with the Global Goal on Adaptation, Pakistan can create a future-proof strategy that safeguards its water resources, protects its glaciers and builds resilience to the impacts of climate change.
On this Earth Day, let us recognise that saving the snow is not just about protecting glaciers; it’s about securing a sustainable future for Pakistan, the region and the world. Through innovative policies, community-driven solutions and regional cooperation, Pakistan can lead the way in building climate resilience and ensuring that the mountains, the ‘heart’ of our water supply, remain a source of life for generations to come.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1303802-let-s-save-the-snow
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A Question of Gender
Arifa Noor
April 22, 2025
IT has been nearly a month since Mahrang Baloch was arrested. This previous weekend, the PTI’s Aliya Hamza was also arrested and taken to Adiala Jail.
The two women were arrested in different parts of the country, participating in political activity that perhaps has little in common. One, after all, is identified as a rights activist, who has opted for street agitation, shunning mainstream electoral politics — though her critics, who are in power, describe her in far harsher terms, denying her any legitimacy. The other is a member of a large political party, which has contested multiple elections allowing her to experience life in the power corridors.
But both events once again underlined Pakistan’s changing political dynamics, where women are pushing their way to centre stage, traditionally the domain of men. But this trend has largely gone unnoticed, even though the 2024 elections finally forced people to pay attention to the youth bulge, instead of either dismissing it or making light of it. The mobilisation of women, though, still seems to be underappreciated and understudied.
This is not to say that women’s mobilisation or politics has been missing entirely. There have been ample examples in the past too. Women activists of the PPP and the Bhutto women confronted one of Pakistan’s worst dictatorships. Begum Wali Khan, Kulsoom Nawaz and Maryam Nawaz proved to be no less.
But the focus tended to be on the known names of established heavyweight families, where crises catapulted the women into leadership positions. While this tradition continues, these women leaders are now being joined by educated, professional middle-class women, who have no legacy to inherit but have nevertheless captured the public imagination in a way we assumed only men could.
Nowhere is this more evident than in the case of Balochistan where in the past year or so, Mahrang Baloch has become the face of Baloch anger and discontent. That she was a woman simply means that it took quite some time before the powerful realised her potency — it is only of late that her alleged links to the insurgents have started to be ‘exposed’ vociferously in officialdom’s conversations and speeches. Had her gender been different, the reaction, and perhaps the imprisonment, would have come far sooner.
Women’s leadership has also emerged at other levels. Post-May 9, the PTI has seen women emerge as politicians or political workers in their own right.
By braving imprisonment, with men — fearful of jail or worse — capitulating, these women have captured the public imagination. It is not without reason that Yasmin Rashid and Aliya Hamza contested elections against the Sharif family and are said to have emerged successful and that their careers and their electoral performance or success is their own or the PTI’s rather than legacy.
Similarly, in the PTM, too, there was evidence of women mobilisation, be it in terms of organisational efforts or those who turned up at their gatherings to speak. This is all the more remarkable because both the PTM and BYC have mobilised women in societies, which are far more conservative.
While the more prominent faces tend to be those of educated women, mostly with university degrees, there are also mothers, sisters, daughters and homemakers, who have suffered loss and displacement, and are no longer willing to suffer in silence. They speak up in whatever way they can; sometimes just by showing up at public gatherings. The change this signifies is not small but it passes unnoticed — because who in Islamabad or Lahore pays attention when a woman from a remote area in KP or Balochistan turns up at a PTM or BYC gathering with the picture of a missing loved one?
There are other indicators also of this woman mobilisation. Researchers are pointing out ‘deviancy’ in voting behaviour — a word used when women polling stations are reporting a result which is different from male polling stations in the same constituency, contradicting the long-held assumption of women voting the same way as male members of the family.
Afiya Zia, who has researched the issue, wrote in The News in 2019 that the deviancy was 18 per cent in 2018, up from 11pc in 2013. This was based on Fafen’s data. She also pointed out that this trend appeared stronger in KP and Sindh than in Punjab. (Fafen reported a similar 18pc deviancy for 2024 but it is hard to say how useful the data from this election is.)
These figures would lead (and have led) to sarcastic commentary about the charisma of Imran Khan. If the same screens where male journalists sit and hold forth on women’s choices had an equal number of women commentators, someone perhaps would have pointed out that this, too, reflects misogyny.
For what else is it when men feel they have the right to say that 50pc of Pakistan’s voters’ choices are irrational or emotionally driven? That their voting choices are driven only by the looks of the candidates?
And it continues to be misogyny when it is said that wives compel their husbands to vote for PTI or act in its favour. Because somehow, when male members force their entire families to vote for a party or candidate, due to patronage or caste, it is accepted as culture or acceptable politics but women playing a similar overbearing role fills the men of Pakistan with such dread that they have to ridicule it.
Neither is it new. Just a few years ago, it was said with confidence that Maryam Nawaz influenced her father to take such an inflexible stand against the establishment — apparently, had she not been around, her father would have not run into such trouble politically.
Five years down the line, no one asks what happened to those views. Because it was never fact or serious analysis, just misogyny and fear of change. Indeed, just as much as autocrats fear people, men of all hues and political leanings find it uncomfortable when women begin to stake a claim to the political stage. And the reaction to this is far from over.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1905831/a-question-of-gender
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Clash of Conflicting Triangles
Jawed Naqvi
April 22, 2025
TO describe the Donald Trump phenomenon as a tectonic shift in world politics, as India’s foreign minister recently did, is akin to the inebriated Majaaz Lucknavi coming home late at night to find policemen darting their flashlights between the door of the house and the ransacked cupboards left ajar.
The dazed poet stood in a corner and paused thoughtfully. Then sidling up to one of his terrified sisters, declared with utmost authority: “This must be the work of a thief.”
Subramanian Jaishankar’s faux insights dodge the crunch question that India must face in a volatile world. How to remain in BRICS without annoying Trump? Conversely, how to be with Trump without being assessed as the weak link in BRICS? The question for Jaishankar involves two irreconcilable triangles India finds itself toggling between.
The Russia-India-China (RIC) group was the brainchild of an astute Russian diplomat, the former foreign minister, Yevgeny Primakov. The so-called Primakov Triangle, forerunner to BRICS, was inaugurated in 1999 to counter emerging post-Cold War challenges from the West. A parallel triangle was taking shape at India’s behest. Brajesh Mishra, before he became Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s national security adviser in 1998, conjured a ‘triangle of democracies’ from east of Suez to the Indian Ocean — never mind the unabashed conceit it implied towards Iran and other South Asian electoral systems.
Mishra’s India-Israel-US triangle offered as a strategic concept on the one hand, also pandered to Hindutva’s ideological needs, given its political and financial hub in the US and hero worship of Israel as an anti-Muslim soulmate.
It was in 1993, after all, that a young Narendra Modi was invited to the US by the American Council of Young Political Leaders, said to be a CIA front. The US sojourn involved visiting the Statue of Liberty and Universal Studios where he was photographed in shirt and pants for the first time. But much of Modi’s work involved fortifying RSS networks in the US and other foreign hubs.
Primakov had noted that the West, instead of dismantling its war machinery, which Mikhail Gorbachev had naively thought would happen, was baring its fangs to its perceived foes. A US-led assault broke up Yugoslavia and eviscerated Iraq while Nato intensified its moves to encircle and destabilise Russia. The Chechen violence was part of the plot.
On the other hand, the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 welded European powers into an economic union. India’s own dormant energies were unleashed by Manmohan Singh in the 1990s to make it a viable power to court for a joint future. RIC became the foundational brick for BRICS. So far so good.
Mishra’s perspective was a logical corollary to the Hindu right’s weakness for colonial patronage and incorrigible pro-West leanings. When the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, later reborn as BJP, gained power in 1977, it didn’t hide the agenda. Nehru’s Non-Aligned Movement was an eyesore but could not be readily abandoned. Vajpayee tweaked the focus and named it, ‘the real non-alignment’. He was the foreign minister when Moshe Dayan made his secret visit to Delhi and the Shah of Iran arrived for his last state reception abroad. No country wanted him after that.
In his role as prime minister, Vajpayee tested the bomb and sent a secret note to Bill Clinton, confiding that it was directed at China. Clearly, Primakov needed to activate everything in his arsenal to staunch India’s westward slide. The urgency was prompted by Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination, the last Indian leader to stand up to the US. Rajiv had opposed the refuelling of US warplanes for Iraq in 1990, which the then minority government was ready to do. The next year he was assassinated at an election rally.
Mothballed relations with Israel were unwrapped in 1992 by Narasimha Rao, but its beneficiary was the Hindu right. Rao would that year sleep through the demolition of the Babri Masjid, which prompted former Rajiv aide Mani Shankar Aiyar to describe him recently as the BJP’s first prime minister.
The year of the Primakov Triangle witnessed damning events in the rival camp. It was in 1996 that Benjamin Netanyahu first became prime minister after whipping up hatred against the then prime minister Yitzhak Rabin. Netanyahu called Rabin a traitor for supporting the Oslo Accords. A young Zionist zealot assassinated Rabin at a public rally. Netanyahu’s plan against the Palestinians was clearly set years before the events of Oct 7, 2023.
The two jostling triangles are in ferment today and India intersects both. They are not equal triangles, however. The one with China and Russia is on the ascent. Iran, seen as a more robust substitute for India as the third point of the re-jigged Primakov Triangle, is standing its ground against Trump. Russia is winning the Ukraine war. China looks primed to stall Trump’s insane tariff assault even though Trump is targeting their underbelly in Iran.
In Mishra’s world, the democracies he was mesmerised by are in a shambles, including his own. State institutions are being upended and all three are witnessing a growing conflict with their judiciaries. Israel and the US are speaking of civil war-like conditions. And MPs of the ruling party in India have accused the supreme court of instigating a civil war with its secular decision and fair verdicts.
Amid the chaos, there isn’t a word about the nightmarish impact on India’s energy security should Iran be bombed. Instead, polarising politics at home has become a tool to divert attention. It no longer makes news that Prime Minister Modi is not attending the landmark Victory Parade in Moscow on May 9. Not just that, the widely announced overdue visit by President Putin to Delhi is no longer discussed.
According to Tehran Times, a joint naval exercise last month by Russia, China and Iran had observers from Qatar, Iraq, South Africa, Oman, the UAE, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan. India is hoping like Majaaz that it knows better.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1905830/clash-of-conflicting-triangles
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Invisible Siege
Qurat Ul Ain Siddiqui
April 22, 2025
THE heat arrives early now. By April, much of Pakistan is already sweltering, with temperatures nearing 40 degrees Celsius and humidity thick in the air. In the south, fans spin uselessly as the heat turns predatory. Hospitals begin seeing heatstroke victims even before summer officially begins. Glaciers in the north, melting rapidly, feed rivers that now swing between drought and flood. In parts of Sindh, the mercury soars past tolerable limits, scorching crops into dust. Farmers in Thar brace for annual winds that dry out land and lives alike, all signs of a climate crisis Pakistan didn’t cause, but one it must now survive, against impossible odds.
For decades, our environmental policy has resembled a game of whac-a-mole — swatting at symptoms while not thinking much of the rot beneath. In the 1990s, the logging mafias of KP denuded mountainsides with impunity, triggering landslides that buried entire villages. The state responded with bans and task forces, but the lumber trucks kept rolling. By 2010, Pakistan’s forest cover had dwindled to among the lowest in Asia. Then came the Billion Tree Tsunami, launched in 2014 as a rare success story. Over eight years, more than a billion saplings were planted, reviving watersheds and creating green jobs. But in recent years, rains have damaged large swaths of the new plantations, while deforested slopes have left villages once again vulnerable to floods — exposing how fragile that progress remains.
What has played out in the forests echoes in other domains; bursts of ambition, followed by backsliding. Pakistan’s energy and water policies reflect a similar pattern of progress undercut by dysfunction. The country’s push into solar power has led to desert solar farms and rooftop incentives, yet the national grid, a creaking relic of the 20th century, remains hostage to inertia. Coal still powers a sizeable chunk of electricity, while gas shortages push factories to burn tyres, filling already polluted neighbourhoods with toxic fumes. Despite scattered innovations, the system remains locked in a cycle where short-term fixes overshadow long-term reform.
Water scarcity deepens these contradictions. By 2025, Pakistan is projected to be South Asia’s most water-stressed nation, with per capita availability dropping from 5,650 cubic metres in 1951 to just 860. The country’s storage capacity covers only 30 days of demand — well below the global average of 120. In cities like Karachi, many rely on private water tankers, paying in some cases as high as Rs6,000 for 1,000 gallons. Elsewhere, groundwater tables are plunging and contamination from sewage and industry is quietly poisoning what remains.
Both crises reveal the same fault line: a system built to serve the powerful while leaving the rest to endure — where thirst, like heat, is not just a symptom, but a manifestation of structural inequality.
Technical fixes alone cannot mend what is broken. The deeper malady lies in perception. A failure to recognise that environmental collapse is not a niche concern but the meta crisis swallowing all others. Inflation, terrorism, political instability; these are symptoms of a biosphere in revolt. When crops fail, farmers migrate to cities already bursting at the seams; when floods destroy infrastructure, foreign investors flee; when heatwaves cripple labour, GDP withers. The environment is the economy, it is national security, it is the ledger on which all debts eventually come due; the scaffolding of survival.
Pakistan’s predicament mirrors the Anthropocene’s central riddle: how do we reimagine a society built on extraction, growth, and waste within planetary boundaries? The answers lie not in grand technological gambits but in the unglamorous work of rewiring governance: integrating climate resilience into urban planning, teaching farmers to read weather apps alongside crop prices, slashing fossil fuel subsidies not through diktat but by making renewables cheaper than coal; rethinking incentives, redistribu-ting risk, and removing the luxury of inaction from those who have benefited most from delay.
Under the weight of rising temperatures and shrinking margins, we are being pushed towards choices we can no longer defer. The IPCC gives 12 years to halve emissions, but Islamabad has less time. By 2050, millions could end up enduring heatwaves beyond human tolerance, or forced to migrate in search of breathable air and viable soil. What is needed is neither optimism nor despair, but clarity — and a break from the myths of separation from nature and infinite ‘growth’. What Pakistan needs now is not just aid or awareness but agency, and a politics that treats climate and the environment not as a downstream concern, but as foundational to every policy choice that follows.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1905826/invisible-siege
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EU: New Realities
Khurram Abbas
April 22, 2025
IN early March, European Commission President Ursula van der Leyen announced the ambitious €800 billion project Readiness 2030. The decision was a direct outcome of the waning of the nearly eight-decade-old North Atlantic security architecture. With US President Donald Trump and his associates’ threats of a reduction in America’s financial commitments to Nato, Trump’s push for a hasty peace deal between Russia and Ukraine and the US Indo-Pacific pivot, the EU has been compelled to scale up defence spending. The announcement of the project sends a clear message to the US and the wider world: if the era of American security guarantees is coming to an end, a new era of European rearmament has begun.
For decades, Europe largely aligned itself with the US leadership in global affairs, often following Washington’s lead without developing an independent security posture. However, Readiness 2030 signals a turning point. A more confident and assertive Europe is beginning to emerge — one that seeks to act in its own strategic interests rather than climbing onto the US bandwagon.
The EU has long been an economic giant but comparatively lightweight in military terms. By strengthening its military muscle, it may adopt a more assertive foreign policy in regional and global affairs. It means that the EU is on the path to becoming a true pillar in a new multipolar world. Readiness 2030 will provide a third major military-industrial hub after the US and China. Hence, there are chances of an increased European ability to project power independently in parts of the world. For middle powers such as India, Asean, GCC and Pakistan, a Europe with stronger military capabilities and an assertive foreign policy can open up new options for security partnerships beyond the US-China rivalry.
An assertive Europe also opens up new strategic opportunities for South Asia. As Europe tries to strengthen its regional and global role, it is well placed to emerge as a trusted broker of peace. The EU has maintained a neutral stance during Pakistan-India conflicts, earning it credibility in South Asia. A more confident and active Europe can add a valuable voice to efforts aimed at preventing crises in South Asia. It can also facilitate a dialogue between Pakistan and India in lesser politicised issues such as climate security. Its engagement on both sides can help ease Pakistan-India tensions. This plan has been announced at a time when EU-India trade negotiations are in progress. Changing EU priorities have opened a window for New Delhi to secure a better trade deal. Further, New Delhi might find a new partner that values ‘strategic autonomy’ and is supportive of its increasing role in global governance.
Islamabad has traditionally viewed the EU and the US together under the broad label of ‘the West’. However, recent developments confirm that the interests of the EU and the US are increasingly diverging, especially on matters of global governance and security. Hence, Islamabad needs to revisit its understanding of the West. It is important for Pakistan to recognise that the EU and the US are no longer a monolith and may pursue different approaches on key international issues.
The outcome of the EU’s plan will likely expand the bloc’s defence industry, which will create a new demand for strategic partnerships. A strategically hungry Europe could serve Islamabad’s political and strategic interests well. Therefore, Islamabad must proactively engage European capitals — bilaterally — to seek strategic partnerships. The EU plans to build a market for defence and seek global partnerships. If positioned well, Pakistan can offer co-production, R&D, or serve as a low-cost manufacturing hub for dual-use tech in an emerging European military-industrial complex.
Also, as Europe looks to diversify its supply chains and reduce its reliance on other countries, Pakistan can position itself as a reliable partner in rare earths and the critical minerals sector. Islamabad’s move to invite investment in this emerging sector could lay the foundation for a long-term and strategic Pakistan-EU partnership.
Today, Europe is entangled in security concerns, cyber threats, migration issues, a resurgent Russia, a rising China, an estranged US, and a waning rules-based order. In this process, human rights, civilian supremacy have taken a back seat — issues that long remained major irritants between Pakistan and EU. This means Islamabad will face less scrutiny of its GSP-Plus status review at a time when Europe’s attention is firmly on its defence and security priorities. Therefore, Islamabad should avail this opportunity by recalibrating its Europe policy — while addressing the issues of human rights and civilian supremacy for its own sake.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1905825/eu-new-realities
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URL: https://www.newageislam.com/pakistan-press/trump-gender-triangles-eu-/d/135253
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