Pakistan Press on: Treaty, Hubris, Indus, Crypto: New Age Islam's Selection, 2 May 2025
By New Age Islam Edit Desk
2 May 2025
Reaping The Skills Premium
Why India’s Treaty Hubris Could Backfire
If The Indus Goes, We Go Too
United In Strength
The Crypto Clock Is Ticking
NCDs In Pakistan
The Costs Of Conflict
Bracing For Belem
A Step Forward
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Reaping The Skills Premium
By Zahra Mughis
May 02, 2025
As the AI Spring unfolds, the world of work is turning a new leaf. The air is thick with both excitement and uncertainty – over automation, potential job losses, the future of human creativity and the shifting meaning of work itself. Some brace for pruning, others prepare for growth spurts. One thing is clear: skills are the new currency. In the online freelance market, the skills premium is already blooming.
GenAI’s (Generative Artificial Intelligence) impact is comparable to some of the greatest technological breakthroughs ever. Unlike traditional AI, which focussed largely on process optimisation, GenAI extends into creative and cognitive domains once thought intrinsically human. Beyond improving recommendation algorithms, it can draft emails, design ad campaigns, outline curricula and develop prototypes – turn ideas into tangible output.
Powered by massive datasets and energy-intensive hardware, GenAI offers time and cost-efficient solutions for everyone. It transforms the services and creative industries while reshaping work in the broader context. Naturally, its adoption rate has outpaced any other innovation, driving an eightfold investment increase since Chatgpt‘s launch in November 2022. According to Stanford’s AI Index Report 2025, 71 per cent of businesses globally leveraged GenAI for at least one task in 2024, with developing markets not so far behind at 67 per cent.
The promise of economic gains and leapfrogging potential for resource-constrained players is driving this uptake. McKinsey & Company estimates that GenAI could add over $2.6 trillion to the global economy by 2040. But what does this mean for the future of work? What role will people play, how will they do it, and how will society value it?
The world of work has always evolved in seasons, each brought about by the winds of technological change. Skill specialisation began as early as the Bronze Age, while the Industrial Revolution established the division of labour as the default.
Each shift displaced some jobs (the replacement effect) while creating some new ones (the reinforcement effect), redefining skill demands. The printing press rendered scribes obsolete but created new roles like press operators. Similarly, UNIVAC I’s launch reduced demand for human ‘computers’, many of whom transitioned to emerging fields like FORTRAN programming.
Today, GenAI presents another pivotal moment in the story of work – the next phase of human-machine collaboration. What sets it apart is not just its novelty, but also the nature and scale of disruption it brings.
The World Economic Forum estimates that Artificial Intelligence, driven mainly by GenAI innovation, will displace 92 million jobs by 2030 while creating around 170 million new jobs globally. The scale of this disruption will vary across sectors, roles, and the skills spectrum, though.
An early blueprint of the GenAI-powered work environment is already visible in the online freelance markets. It warrants attention for two reasons.
First, freelance markets are early indicators of emerging industry trends, evolving work roles, and changing skill requirements. Second, skills, not schooling credentials or geography, are the strongest currency in these markets. Their impact extends to emerging markets like Pakistan since they thrive on the globalisation of opportunities and resources.
Initial evidence from the public rollouts of LLMs showed a decline in job postings for tasks easily automatable through structured data analysis, such as writing, basic programming, and web development. Some studies estimated a drop of over 20 per cent in postings for these roles.
Yet it’s not all doom and gloom. Upwork, a leading freelancing platform, reported a 2.4 per cent rise in total postings and a 1.3 per cent increase in per-contract earnings by mid-2023. It highlighted job creation aligned with the emergence of new skill categories like LLM tuning and workflow automation. In fact, freelancers engaged in AI-specific gigs were reportedly earning 40 per cent higher than those doing non-AI work, suggesting that the reinforcement effect is already at play.
The most significant gains are visible for gigs related to technological and digital solutions, followed by business operations. In contrast, creative and service-oriented roles continue to face the replacement effect with fewer jobs and lower pay for traditional copywriters, translators, sales assistants, and other such roles.
That said, a silver lining is emerging. Recent evidence suggests that freelancers upskilling with GenAI-specific or complementary skills, such as AI content creation, fact-checking/evaluation, and responsible AI use, are managing to retain ground in their established fields.
The replacement effect is not absolute. Even in seemingly automatable roles, GenAI’s efficiency declines as task complexity increases. It struggles with tasks that require nuance, analytical depth and contextual specificity. This is where critical thinking, creative problem-solving, socio-emotional intelligence and human experience continue to hold value.
The crux? GenAI is skills-biased and has paradoxical effects. It automates traditionally low-skilled, low-value work while increasing returns for high-skilled, high-value roles. In doing so, it risks widening inequalities across the skills spectrum.
While GenAI promises skill democratistion by real-time learning opportunities, it also requires strong foundational knowledge and domain expertise to tackle complex problems. Once again, its potential and limitations combine to reinforce the growing skills premium.
How much of it can Pakistan reap? That will depend on the groundwork it lays today.
From a bird's-eye view, Pakistan is the fourth-largest freelance market by active gig workers. However, it is not ranked among the top five most valuable talent pools globally. That’s precisely why GenAI’s impact has direct and urgent implications for young Pakistani freelancers who are otherwise facing limited opportunities in the traditional home market.
Currently, only about 1.0 per cent of Pakistani freelancers offer high-value services like artificial intelligence and blockchain. About 55 per cent of the country’s registered active freelance workforce work in web development, graphic design, and content writing. Gigs in these fields have traditionally been low-paying and now have high exposure rates to GenAI-enabled automation.
Beyond the registered platform economy lies a vast, often overlooked informal sector in the Pakistani freelance market. This space has historically provided opportunities to for small towners, women, and students, mainly though outsourcing of low-value but foreign currency-priced gigs, generally for minimal local currency compensation. Weak-tie social networks and informal, unwritten agreements typically mediate these transactions, helping Pakistan maintain a cost advantage in the global freelance markets.
GenAI is, however, shifting the equation in demand-side markets like North America. Therefore, the focus must pivot to building a new advantage: human capital.
To reap the skills premium, investment in skills comes first. This puts the spotlight on governments and educational institutions. Public-private programmes like DigiSkill have made significant contributions to national skill development across domains. However, like other formal initiatives, their adaptability is constrained by institutional interties.
In contrast, bootcamps and micro-credential programmes, offered by edtech platforms, provide more efficient options for re- and up-skilling both freelancers and the traditional workforce. The key now is to realign efforts towards high-value, (Gen)AI-specialised and complementary skills – the very competences defining competitiveness in the new season of work.
Lastly, in the Age of Generative AI, where skills and human adaptability determine who captures the skills premium, individual agency becomes the most crucial element. The secret to sustainable growth lies in learning how to learn, adapt and nurturing the drive to keep evolving.
In a world where even creativity can be automated, the most human skill may well be the ability to regrow – again and again – with every spring.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1307260-reaping-the-skills-premiumh
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Why India’s Treaty Hubris Could Backfire
By Dr Murad Ali
May 02, 2025
Following the Modi-led regime's announcement that India was unilaterally abrogating the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in reaction to the Pahalgam incident, several op-eds have reviewed New Delhi’s move and its legality.
Signed on September 19, 1960, in Karachi, Pakistan’s capital at the time, the treaty is basically an elaborate water-sharing mechanism between the two countries. It allocates control of the eastern rivers – Ravi, Beas and Sutlej – to India and grants Pakistan rights over the western rivers – Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. Fortunately, the treaty survived the wars of 1965 and 1971, the Kargil conflict, and numerous regimes in both countries. Due to this, the World Bank, being the guarantor of this pact, has continually showcased it as a rare success in international water diplomacy.
Before deliberating on the legal, diplomatic and geopolitical implications of India’s one-sided approach, I asked a simple question of Chatgpt: Can India unilaterally suspend the Indus Waters Treaty? I received this response: “No, India cannot unilaterally suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) without following the provisions outlined in the agreement”. It further stated: “The treaty includes a dispute resolution mechanism and stipulates that any changes or suspension of the treaty would require mutual agreement or, in some cases, be subject to third-party arbitration. In practice, unilaterally suspending or abrogating the treaty would be a highly complex and politically sensitive move, potentially leading to significant diplomatic and legal consequences. Any such action would likely escalate tensions between India and Pakistan and could have broader international implications”. Quoted words, no tampering, no editing. After thoroughly reading the 85-page treaty document, this is what any sane and unbiased person would assert about the Indian stance of unilaterally suspending the treaty.
From a legal perspective, the devil is in the details. The treaty document does not include any explicit abrogation clause. Article XII states (3): “The provisions of this treaty may from time to time be modified by a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose between the two governments”. The same article further adds that (4): “The provisions of this treaty, or the provisions of this treaty as modified under the provisions of Paragraph (3), shall continue in force until terminated by a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose between the two governments”.
In the whole treaty, the word ‘terminate’ is used only once in the above context. Hence, as per Article XII, any attempt at unilateral withdrawal is legally void and internationally untenable. The pact has made it clear that the only legally permissible options are continuation, amendment or termination through mutual consent of both governments. This is a critical legal reality that there is no space for unilateralism. Thus, any Indian assertion or action at unilateral exit from the treaty directly violates the principles of international law.
The reality is that the Modi regime has been finding excuses to revoke the IWT for quite some time. Hence, this is not the first time the treaty has come under political fire. In 2016, following the Uri attack, Prime Minister Modi stated that “Blood and water cannot flow together.” Similar threats have been issued by other Indian political leaders from time to time. Pakistan, being a lower riparian country, has been regularly threatened with water aggression.
To punish Pakistan, there are voices in India calling for the construction of storage facilities on the western rivers – Indus, Jhelum and Chenab – to choke Pakistan’s water supply. While New Delhi has cultivated such intentions, it lacks the necessary storage infrastructure on these rivers. Experts have warned that India will face two fundamental challenges even if it tries to build such facilities.
First, the steep terrain of the Himalayas makes it nearly impossible to divert water from these rivers to the Indian mainland. Second, the Kashmir Valley, through which these rivers flow, has surplus water for agriculture, requiring lift irrigation – water that must be raised using pumps. So even if India builds dams, what would it do with the excess water? Critics argue that rather than securing a strategic edge, India could create new vulnerabilities, as such critical infrastructure in an environmentally sensitive and geopolitically conflict zone would enhance India’s burden.
From a diplomatic point of view, India’s unilateral decision legitimises the very kind of water weaponisation that New Delhi has long opposed. Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan, with whom India shares essential river systems, could certainly interpret this as a sign of India’s policy to act unilaterally whenever it deems necessary. Given this, future regional negotiations, particularly with Nepal over the Koshi and Gandak rivers and Bangladesh over the Ganga and Teesta, would be marred by a huge trust deficit. So, diplomatically, India would certainly be a loser in the long run.
In addition, New Delhi willfully opens dangerous geopolitical avenues with Beijing. China, being the upper riparian of the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra), could cite the same logic in any future confrontation with India. Undoubtedly, China has proven expertise and resources to build hydropower infrastructure in the most difficult terrains.
In the long run, China could devise a similar rationale, citing climate change and population factors to potentially cut or redirect water flows to northeast India. This is also why New Delhi must not act unilaterally in sheer hubris. Such a move has massive legal, diplomatic, and geopolitical implications for India and the region in the long run.
Sanity must prevail, but unfortunately, New Delhi has been behaving with extreme arrogance. During the last several years, the US-India strategic bonhomie has steadily deepened, also mainly due to increasing Sino-US acrimony and trade war. Several developments such as the 2016 Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), the 2018 Communications Compatibility and Security Arrangement (COMCASA), the 2019 Industrial Security Agreement (ISA) and the 2020 Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) have led to a closer strategic cooperation between the US and India, having implications for China and Pakistan.
The rejuvenation of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or Quad, comprising Australia, India, Japan and the US in the Indo-Pacific and close security cooperation between India and the US at the India-Israel-UAE-United States (I2-U2) forum, now labelled as the Middle Eastern Quad are some of the steps demonstrating ever-expanding US-India strategic and security cooperation. These Indo-US moves have further increased India’s hubris, and statements coming from New Delhi are unfortunately exhibiting more disdain towards Pakistan.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1307261-why-india-s-treaty-hubris-could-backfire
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If The Indus Goes, We Go Too
By Riffat Inam Butt
May 02, 2025
As Himalayan glaciers retreat and temperatures rise, South Asia’s rivers are becoming weapons of survival, not just sources of life. Nowhere is this more dangerous than along the Indus River, where the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty – once celebrated as a landmark of cooperation between bitter rivals India and Pakistan – faces its greatest test in a rapidly warming world.
The breaking point came in April 2025. After a terrorist –attack in Jammu and Kashmir, India cited national security to abruptly suspend participation in the treaty, severing crucial data exchanges and warning of more upstream controls. Over the last few years, in villages across Pakistan’s Punjab, farmers like Tariq Mehmood have been watching helplessly as the Chenab’s waters continue to thin.
Water, long a quiet undercurrent in the hostility between India and Pakistan, has surged to the forefront. The stakes are existential for Pakistan, critically reliant on the western rivers for drinking water, agriculture and hydropower. As climate shocks intensify and upstream control tightens, a stark question emerges: Can a vulnerable lower riparian nation hold its ground against a powerful upstream neighbour?
Signed with the World Bank’s mediation, after violent water disputes following the 1947 Partition, the Indus Waters Treaty allocated the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab to Pakistan, while India retained the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. But critics argue the treaty’s safeguards are crumbling. Projects like the Kishanganga and Baglihar dams – under strict conditions – have allegedly eroded downstream flow, a threat compounded by the accelerating impacts of climate change, which continue to diminish overall water availability across the region.
The legal battle is messy. India asserts its hydropower developments fall within treaty rights. Pakistan’s officials, scrambling to trigger international arbitration, argue India is breaching the treaty’s spirit and weaponising water.
Other lower riparian states tell similarly cautionary tales. For decades, the Middle East has struggled to secure fair access to the Jordan River, often turning to global courts, regional forums and diplomacy with little success. Egypt’s fight over the Nile, challenged by Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam, highlights the difficulty of protecting historic rights in the face of upstream ambition. Iraq and Syria, battered by Turkey’s control of the Tigris and Euphrates, found economic sanctions and regional alliances an unreliable shield.
Southeast Asia’s Mekong states – Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand – turned to environmental advocacy against China’s dam spree, while Bangladesh leaned heavily on regional diplomacy and technical resilience to manage upstream threats on the Brahmaputra.
The lesson for Pakistan is clear: survival requires a layered strategy. First, Pakistan must internationalise the Indus Basin dispute. The Permanent Indus Commission, designed for technical discussions, cannot shoulder the weight of today's geopolitical tensions. Islamabad must escalate the matter to forums like the United Nations General Assembly and the Security Council and leverage the World Bank’s role as a treaty guarantor. The narrative must shift from bilateral grievance to planetary concern in the global climate era.
Second, legal tools matter - not only for shaping political narratives but also as technical instruments. Egypt’s persistent appeals to African institutions, though slow to yield results, kept Nile concerns alive internationally. Pakistan must meticulously document every breach and seek advisory opinions from the SCO, International Court of Justice, and other global forums, reframing India’s actions as dangerous precedents in transboundary water law.
Third, technical resilience is non-negotiable. Strategic investments in desalination, rainwater harvesting, and drip irrigation can help buffer Pakistan against Indian pressure. Building reservoirs and improving water-use efficiency would not only mitigate the Indus Basin’s vulnerability but will also help to safeguard against future manipulation.
Fourth, alliances must be broader and sharper. China, wary of India's regional ambitions, has its own stake in keeping South Asia’s rivers stable. Even Bangladesh, mindful of its own upstream threats, could be a quiet supporter. Afghanistan, which shares nearly eight per cent of the Indus River Basin through the Kabul River, is also a crucial stakeholder. Islamabad must engage Kabul proactively to prevent it from drifting toward alignment with India's water policy, which could further complicate the regional hydro-political landscape.
Finally, and perhaps most crucially, Pakistan must weaponise the climate argument. Climate change is not a future threat; it is already reshaping river flows, glaciers, and rainfall patterns across the region. By framing India’s actions as reckless endangerment of a fragile ecosystem, Pakistan could rally environmental organisations, climate activists and sympathetic states in its support. The narrative must shift from being seen as a bilateral dispute to a warning about the broader collapse of water security in the climate era.
The implications stretch far beyond Pakistan’s fields. Reduced Indus flows would devastate agriculture, drive millions into overcrowded cities, ignite food shortages, and intensify border tensions in an already volatile nuclear neighbourhood. The collapse of the Indus Treaty would not just be a diplomatic failure but a humanitarian catastrophe with profound global repercussions.
For Tariq Mehmood and countless farmers like him, the danger is no longer a distant threat – it is the dry well, the barren fields, the creeping shadow of despair. “If the river goes,' he said, 'we go too.”
The Indus Waters Treaty was intended to protect against such devastation. Whether it can still be salvaged amid rising temperatures, hardening nationalisms, and eroding trust will determine not just the future of India and Pakistan but the fate of the entire region, standing on fragile ground.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1307262-if-the-indus-goes-we-go-too
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United In Strength
By Izmi Herlani
May 02, 2025
In recent weeks, the Indo-Pakistani relationship has once again been thrust into the spotlight following the Pahalgam attack, which many analysts and observers have labeled a false flag operation. This incident appears to follow a troubling pattern, reminiscent of previous strategies employed to malign Pakistan.
The strategic objectives of the Pahalgam attack seem multifaceted, but a primary aim appears to be upholding the declining popularity of the current BJP government in India. With mounting pressure from various segments of Indian society regarding economic issues and handling of internal disputes, the BJP could be seeking to re-establish a narrative through an external enemy.
Another important context for this standoff is the international scrutiny faced by India concerning human rights violations in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK). The ongoing plight of the Kashmiri people has drawn international condemnation and the Pahalgam incident serves as a distraction from these human rights issues. By alleging Pakistan's involvement in such attacks, India aims to divert global attention and regain the upper hand in the court of public opinion.
The purported objectives of this irrational plot could also include seeking leverage from the Trump administration regarding trade tariffs and creating economic pressure on Pakistan. The geopolitical dynamics have shifted significantly in recent years, and any incident that portrays Pakistan negatively could be used to enhance India's negotiating position concerning US policy initiatives. India's historical efforts to paint itself as a victim in the regional geopolitical arena allow it to seek favourable outcomes in trade discussions while simultaneously strangling Pakistan economically by stopping the flow of rivers.
At this juncture, it is imperative to recognise the role of the Pakistan Armed Forces, specifically the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), which has a longstanding history of defending the motherland. The spirit of dedication among the armed forces runs deep, and the rich legacy of sacrifice and valour inspires future generations. PAF’s operational readiness has been the hallmark of the force, which was exhibited in the 1965 and 1971 wars and once again came to the fore in February 2019, when India launched a unilateral, irrational and aggressive military campaign across the LoC. Responding to this unprovoked aggression, PAF displayed remarkable professionalism and heroism, executing precise strikes, downing IAF fighter jets and effectively safeguarding national sovereignty.
In light of the current standoff, the PAF remains prepared and vigilant, equipped with advanced training and operational strategies. The commitment to excellence, combined with the brave resolve of the personnel, ensures that if war is imposed on Pakistan, the Pakistan Air Force will once again rise to the occasion, defending the homeland with extreme prowess. Further evidence of the PAF’s strong position lies in its recent military acquisitions and indigenisation efforts.
Under the current leadership, there has been a significant push towards modernising the air force, with notable advancements reflected in cutting-edge technologies and indigenised production capabilities. Projects such as the JF-17 Thunder programme, the leaps in space, cyber, artificial intelligence and unmanned aerial systems domains have significantly enhanced Pakistan's air defence capabilities, putting the PAF steps ahead of its adversary in terms of operational effectiveness.
Military leaders and personnel are collectively resolved that any foolish act of aggression will be met with full force. The message is clear: Pakistan can defend itself and counteract any threats to its sovereignty.
Pakistan must continue to strengthen its defence capabilities while also advocating for peace and stability in South Asia. The sacrifices of our brave Shaheens have paved the way for a robust defence posture that will ensure Pakistan remains secure in the face of adversity.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1307263-united-in-strength
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The Crypto Clock Is Ticking
By Muhammad Ahmed Mustafa Qayyum
May 02, 2025
They say the law moves slowly, but the world doesn’t wait. Pakistan’s slow adaptation to emerging technologies has contributed to delayed progress, often leaving the country behind in a rapidly evolving digital world.
But the tide is turning. The uncharted legal terrain of cryptocurrency and digital assets – tools not of tomorrow, but of today – is now at the forefront. With increasing crypto wealth and the surge of trading influencers on digital platforms, a fast, digital and unpredictable financial era has already arrived. The question now is: can Pakistan embrace innovation through timely reform, or continue with a cautious, restrictive approach?
Surprisingly, with nearly 15 to 20 million users, Pakistan ranks among the top countries in crypto adoption. Yet, it still operates in a legal grey zone. There is no clear regulatory roadmap, no guardrails for innovation and no shield for investors. In contrast, Nigeria offers a case worth watching: once firm on a crypto ban, it has now shifted toward structured regulation. Pakistan could take a cue before the gap between innovation and policy becomes too wide to bridge.
In 2018, Pakistan’s central bank issued a circular barring financial institutions from dealing in cryptocurrencies, declaring them risky and unofficial. Despite the ban, crypto adoption grew – driven by the rupee devaluation, freelancing and a young digital population. In 2020, the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) released a position paper exploring regulatory strategies for digital assets, initiating public discourse on the issue.
More recently, in March 2025, Pakistan announced plans to implement a comprehensive legal framework surrounding cryptocurrency to attract global investment. Consequently, the Pakistan Crypto Council was formed, spearheaded by investor Bilal bin Saqib, known for his involvement in Web3 initiatives, who called for regulatory clarity and pro-business laws. He highlighted Pakistan’s low costs and startup potential, and the government began consulting regulatory models from countries such as the UAE, Nigeria and Turkiye. In support of this shift, Senator Afnan Ullah Khan introduced the Virtual Assets Bill 2025, proposing legal recognition for digital assets, a Digital Rupee backed by the Pakistani currency, and creating Virtual Asset Zones for blockchain innovation under regulatory supervision.
Despite these promising developments and ongoing policy discussions, Pakistan still lacks any enforceable cryptocurrency regulation. The regulatory landscape remains governed only by advisory efforts and non-formal law. The critical questions are whether Pakistan should embrace crypto regulation to support its economy or whether an outright ban would be a safer route. If the very essence of cryptocurrency is decentralisation, can it even be effectively regulated? And if so, how can the government frame regulations that manage risk and unlock economic opportunity?
Nigeria’s experience with cryptocurrency illustrates how regulation can be more effective than restriction. In February 2021, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) issued a directive prohibiting banks from facilitating crypto transactions, citing risks such as money laundering and financial instability. However, this led to unintended consequences – crypto trading simply shifted to peer-to-peer (P2P) platforms, where individuals buy and sell digital currencies directly, without relying on traditional financial institutions. This made oversight even more challenging.
Realising the limitations of an outright ban, Nigeria reevaluated its approach. In October 2021, it launched the eNaira, Africa's first central bank digital currency, offering a secure digital alternative. In May 2022, Nigeria’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) introduced a regulatory framework that included licensing requirements for crypto exchanges, approval procedures for token offerings, and rules for the custody of digital assets.
A tax policy was also established: a 10 per cent capital gains tax on crypto profits, income tax on earnings from mining or payments received in crypto, and a 7.5 per cent Value-Added Tax (VAT) on crypto service fees. Finally, in December 2023, the CBN lifted its ban and permitted banks to engage with licensed crypto firms under strict guidelines.
This shift from an outright crypto ban to a regulated framework brought tangible economic benefits. According to the Central Bank of Nigeria, integrating blockchain and digital currencies may contribute up to $29 billion to the country's GDP over the next decade. Between July 2022 and June 2023, Nigeria saw a 9.0 per cent increase in crypto transaction volume, reaching $56.7 billion. Investor confidence also surged and Nigeria’s fintech sector witnessed a dramatic rise in funding, growing from $53 million in 2017 to over $1.5 billion in 2022.
By choosing regulation over prohibition, Nigeria improved financial oversight, reduced crypto-related fraud and created legal income opportunities for its citizens through trading, mining, and blockchain-related ventures.
Cryptocurrency is no longer a distant possibility but a present-day reality. Pakistan now stands at a critical policy crossroads. With timely and decisive regulation, the country can pave the way for digital transformation, economic inclusion and global competitiveness, positioning itself as a serious contender in the evolving world of crypto and blockchain.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1307264-the-crypto-clock-is-ticking
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NCDs In Pakistan
Zafar Mirza
May 2, 2025
IN view of my last two columns, I think it is pertinent to delve into the state of the people of Pakistan with regard to the epidemiology of non-communicable diseases (NCDs).
Up until 2010, communicable diseases, spread through virus, bacteria and other organisms and from one person to another, were affecting us more than NCDs, which affect our body’s organs and systems due to the choices we make (behavioural factors) and due to environmental factors (for example, air pollution) and not due to any intermediary organisms. NCDs were gradually increasing, but in 2010, they surpassed communicable diseases in terms of the cause of death. To be exact, 681,003 deaths were estimated due to NCDs in 2010 as opposed to 675,332 deaths due to communicable diseases, and since then the gap between the two has been widening.
Looking at the trends over 30 years, deaths due to NCDs in 1990 were estimated to be 426,809, which jumped to 830,172 in 2019. The burden of NCDs including mental health problems, which was 29.9 per cent of the total burden in 2000, has increased its share to 43.7pc in 2019 and is on the rise.
Pakistan represents a global phenomenon interms of the rise of the NCDs epidemic — 74pc (41 million) of the number of annual deaths globally are due to NCDs, out of which 86pc occur in low- and middle-income countries. Of the total deaths due to NCDs, 41pc of people die under the age of 70 years. The attendant economic losses have been estimated to be humongous. Eighty per cent of global deaths take place due to four diseases: cardiovascular, cancers, chronic respiratory disorders and diabetes.
What is the reason for these horrific figures and trends? The answer: our lifestyle choices and our environment, and there is some overlap between the two.
The risks to our health stem from three sources: our behaviour as individuals, the environment around us, and genetics. A lot of research has taken place to study the effects of these risks, their interplay and subsequent risk management.
Our behaviour — the choices we make — is the most important. Wrong choices take us downhill fast, while the right ones not only improve our health and quality of life but may also have a positive impact on the other two groups of risks. Let’s discuss how. Smoking is a personal choice. Some of us choose to smoke while most of us choose not to. So, first and foremost, it is our own decision to choose this behaviour. It is indeed high-risk behaviour with definite negative consequences. The WHO estimates that smoking is the leading cause of lung cancer, responsible for approximately 85pc of all cases. It contains more than 7,000 toxic chemicals and affects almost all organs of the body. It is a risk factor for all NCDs. A lifetime of smoking subtracts an average 10 years from life.
Despite knowing this, some people still make the choice to adopt such high-risk behaviour. I have yet to meet a smoker who says that smoking is good for our health! So, when we smoke, we actually make a choice to expose our body to harm. It is this behaviour that is likely to take us towards cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, cancers, etc. And, if we choose not to smoke, we remove a major risk factor. It is our decision to take.
In 2021, the prevalence of tobacco smoking among people above the age of 15 years in Pakistan was estimated by the WHO to be 31.7pc in males and 7.3pc among females. A very high rate of prevalence indeed.
Applying the same example to environmental risks — risks which exist beyond our own control — we can focus on second-hand smoke, which occurs when people around an active smoker inhale exhaled tobacco fumes. An AKU team of researchers discovered the presence of SHS in an alarming 95pc of children in Pakistan and Bangladesh. SHS also causes all the aforementioned NCDs and related problems an active smoker is likely to develop. Adopting behaviour that avoids SHS and other environmental risks to health can have a positive impact, but only to a limited extent. For this, intersectoral collaboration and larger regulatory and educational interventions are required.
Genetic predisposition is also a risk (for example, if both parents are diabetic, there is a higher chance of their children developing diabetes). This problem is aggravated by the high occurrence rate of cousin marriages in Pakistan. However, the emerging field of epigenetics shows how better and sustainable behavioral choices and environmental control can effectively regulate the effect of genes.
Due to shortsighted behavioral choices, today, every fourth adult above the age of 20 years has type II diabetes and every third adult above 45 has elevated blood pressure in Pakistan; a precursor to a plethora of cardiovascular diseases which are also being increasingly recorded among the younger age groups. One in nine women in Pakistan is likely to be diagnosed with breast cancer at some point in her life.
Interestingly, smoking, unhealthy diets, physical inactivity and air pollution are common risk factors for developing cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, cancers and chronic respiratory disorders. Many a time, these risk factors coexist and their synergistic effect is lethal. By implication, effectively controlling these risk factors would help control all major NCDs.
The avalanche of NCDs in Pakistan demands our attention to effectively implement preventative policies, regulatory, managerial, educational interventions and reliable health services to manage NCDs. It requires the stern control of tobacco and fast-food industries that promote unhealthy behaviours, alongside heavy and sustained investments in the education of health professionals and the public in adopting healthy lifestyles choices.
NCDs are chronic, so the interventions to address them should be too.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1907922/ncds-in-pakistan
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The Costs Of Conflict
Ali Tauqeer Sheikh
May 2, 2025
AS tensions escalate between nuclear-armed neighbours India and Pakistan, beyond the immediate threat of conflict and casualties lies a more profound danger: the devastation of economies, ecosystems and built environments that would leave both nations permanently scarred, regardless of whichever side claims victory. It’s time for both countries to find ways to de-escalate the rhetoric, and the world to help in crisis management.
The Indus Valley, the cradle of one of humanity’s oldest civilisations, once again finds itself at risk of catastrophic disruption. Even a conventional war would lead to unimaginable devastation, undermining decades of development and condemning millions to poverty traps and climate vulnerability.
Historical lessons: History offers sobering lessons regarding the economic toll of India-Pakistan confrontations. The 1999 Kargil conflict, though limited in scope, triggered a steep drop within days in the Indian and Pakistani bourses. Markets recovered, but the economic impact lingered long after hostilities ceased, with Pakistan’s GDP growth falling from 4.2 per cent to 3.1pc in the subsequent fiscal year. The 2019 Pulwama crisis similarly witnessed market capitalisation losses exceeding $12 billion across both economies within a week of escalation.
A full-scale conflict today would be far more devastating. According to Foreign Affairs Forum on the ‘Economic Impacts of a Full-Scale India-Pakistan War’, the daily costs of military operations for India could reach $670 million, with broader economic losses potentially reaching $17.8bn — equivalent to a 20pc GDP contraction over four weeks of conflict. Pakistan’s more fragile economy is already struggling with depleted reserves and IMF dependence. A war is likely to trigger hyperinflation and shortages of essential goods.
Even India’s relatively larger economy would face severe disruption. Financial markets would experience capital flight. Economists have projected potential foreign investment outflows of $10-15bn within the first month of conflict (Moody’s Analytics, 2024). The rupee in both countries would likely depreciate, and inflationary pressures surge from rising oil prices and import costs. Conflict would slow down global economic growth.
For Pakistan, the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty would threaten its agrarian economy, constitutes 22.7pc of GDP but consumes more than 95pc of available water. This could trigger water shortages in our canals, particularly during non-monsoon periods. Food security would dramatically worsen — some 200m in India and 40m in Pakistan are already suffering from inadequate nutrition.
The two countries’ already meagre progress towards the SDGs would suffer immense setbacks, pushing millions deeper into poverty through economic contraction, inflation and job losses.
Environmental catastrophe: Armed India-Pakistan conflict could lead to environmental devastation across ecosystems already stressed by climate change. Recent conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza provide dispiriting lessons. In Ukraine, over 7m acres of forests and protected areas have been damaged since February 2022, with some 900 instances of industrial pollution from damaged facilities. The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam led to flooding that contaminated vast territories, requiring an estimated €50 billion ($57 billion) and decades for restoration.
Agricultural heartlands in both India and Pakistan would likely suffer long-term contamination, threatening food security for hundreds of millions. The climate commitments of both would fall by the wayside. Pakistan’s pledge to increase renewable energy to 60pc of its energy mix by 2030 and India’s emissions reduction targets would become unattainable if resources shift to conflict and recovery.
Both countries face climate vulnerabilities, which conflict would worsen by damaging infrastructure, disrupting disaster response, and diverting resources from adaptation programmes. Conflict would disrupt supply chains, delay renewable projects and shift government priorities to immediate security concerns, slowing climate actions for resilient and low-carbon development. Historical and geopolitical tensions already complicate India-Pakistan collaboration on climate issues. War would further stall or reverse any progress towards joint climate initiatives, reducing the effectiveness of regional climate action.
Beyond numbers: Statistics cannot adequately capture human suffering resulting from conflict. Civilian casualties, displacement and separation of families create wounds that economics cannot measure. Conflict would further marginalise already vulnerable minority populations. Muslims in India and Indian-held Kashmir are already facing intensified persecution under the nationalist fervour and hysteria that war has triggered. The Modi government’s enabling of religious polarisation will find further targets from Gujrat to Bihar to Bengal as war rhetoric normalises extremist positions.
International intervention: Given these potentially catastrophic consequences, the global community must move beyond passive concern to active intervention and exert its diplomatic and economic influence on Islamabad and New Delhi. The US, with its long-standing security ties to both nations, has a unique capacity to engage military establishments. China, as Pakistan’s close ally and an increasingly important economic partner for India, possesses diplomatic channels that could prove crucial in reducing the war rhetoric. Other major powers should also deploy all available diplomatic tools to discourage adventurism. Intelligence-sharing about terrorist threats could help address legitimate security concerns without resorting to confrontation.
Prosperity over destruction: The choice is stark: continued development with potential for shared prosperity, or mutually assured destruction that would set both nations back by decades. Even a limited conflict would dramatically alter development trajectories, redirecting resources from education, healthcare, and infrastructure towards military expenditure and reconstruction.
Lessons from both Ukraine and Gaza demonstrate the grave consequences when international intervention comes too late or remains insufficient. Those who value the ancient Indus civilisation must ensure it survives to continue its contributions to progress, rather than becoming another tragic example of political irrationality triumphing over common interest. The war drums can still be silenced through determined international action and diplomatic engagement based on mutual benefit rather than zero-sum competition.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1907921/the-costs-of-conflict
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Bracing For Belem
Jamil Ahmad
May 2, 2025
LIMITING global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is the overarching aim of the 2015 Paris Agreement; breeching that limit would have disastrous consequences. Its five-year work cycle outlines a roadmap to combat climate change, adapt to its effects and manage risks associated with it through national climate action plans known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
In the decade since the agreement, the world has trudged along that roadmap making steady progress. Based on their NDCs, countries have taken measures to move towards net-zero emission targets. Major economies and entities have set timelines and adopted policies to become carbon neutral. The EU, for example, aims to reduce emissions by 55 per cent by 2030 and achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. China wants to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Several other countries have committed to attain net-zero by 2050.
Constrained by financial challenges, the quest of developing countries to reach net-zero will be arduous and contingent on receiving huge investments from their development partners. NDCs submitted by developing countries commonly refer to finance as a constraint. Some have furnished quantified estimates of their financial support needs, invoking provisions of the Paris Agreement which urge developed countries to take the lead in providing financial assistance to countries that are less endowed and more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
Since the Paris Agreement came into effect, there have been some positive developments; for example, the establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund under the UN Climate Convention. The fund has now been operationalised to assist climate-vulnerable nations. The Green Climate Fund, the world’s largest climate fund, is enhancing support to developing countries to translate their NDCs into climate investments and programming. At COP29 in Baku last year, developed countries pledged to mobilise $300 billion by 2035 to assist vulnerable developing countries — a threefold increase from the earlier pledge of $100bn. However, the financial needs of the latter far exceed the available resources.
The United Nations Environment Programme estimates the adaptation finance gap at $187-359bn per year. The ask for a just energy transition for developing economies will be much higher. That is why COP29 called for scaled-up financing for developing countries to at least $1.3 trillion per year by 2035 from public and private sources.
Meeting these high targets appears burdensome. COP30 in Belem this year will transact a heavy agenda and make critical decisions. Climate finance will be a hot topic again, as will the importance of capacity building for transferring low-carbon and green technologies to developing countries for a just energy transition.
The global stock-take of the Paris Agreement in 2023 acknowledged the progress but also highlighted the need for the next NDCs to be more ambitious and broader based. With the energy sector the main source of GHG emissions, NDCs must be supported by multitiered and multisectoral strategies to enable energy transition in a timely manner.
Due this year, the updated NDCs would raise the bar to keep hope alive to limit global warming to less than 1.5°C. In a recent development, the International Maritime Organisation approved net-zero regulations for shipping — a long-awaited move that will complement international efforts. Shipping accounts for about 3pc of global emissions. With this deal, shipping becomes the first industry with a mandated net-zero framework for reducing emissions.
Bracing for Belem, host Brazil is active to ensure that COP30 lives up to expectations amid challenging circumstances. It has unveiled plans to launch an ambitious $125bn fund to protect tropical forests as part of a strategy to galvanise climate action. Some nations have already offered to join the initiative. On the diplomatic front, in March this year, COP30 president Ambassador André Corrêa do Lagowrote an open letter to governments and other stakeholders calling for transitioning the COPs from negotiations to a phase of “full implementation” and “mobilisation of all of humanity’s resources to tackle structural inequalities within and among countries”.
Raising the pitch, UN Secretary-General António Guterres has urged leaders to “lay out a bold vision for a just green transition over the next decade”. He said at COP30 that “leaders must deliver a credible roadmap to mobilise $1.3tr a year for developing countries by 2035”, also reminding developed countries of their promise to double adaptation finance to at least $40bn a year by this year.
Belem offers a chance for collective action for climate-resilient societies. This chance must not be missed.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1907920/bracing-for-belem
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A Step Forward
Naseer Memon
May 2, 2025
AFTER wrangling over the canal controversy for several months, the federal government has finally settled the thorny issue through the Council of Common Interests (CCI). The prickly matter of new canals and a questionable water availability certificate has been defused by making the scheme contingent on the consensus of all provinces.
The breakthrough came after several days of blockade of the Sindh-Punjab highways. Thousands of people, including women with children on their laps, converged under a sizzling sun to air their grievances against the controversial canals. Lawyers-led sit-ins near Sukkur and Kashmore brought north-south logistical movement to a halt, causing a supply chain crisis. This prompted the authorities to hurriedly bring forward a long overdue CCI session that had been set for May 2 to find an amicable solution.
Article 155 of the Constitution mandates the CCI to safeguard the water-related interests of the federating units. The summaries of Sindh challenging the Cholistan feeder canal, the Chaubara canal and the Jalalpur canal had waited for a long overdue meeting of the Council. The Constitution requires a routine meeting of the Council after every quarter — but no meeting had been convened for five quarters. Sindh had been beseeching the federal government but all voices had fallen on deaf ears in Islamabad. Regular meetings of this important forum could surely have averted the stand-off that, instead, quickly turned into a fireball.
The Indus River System Authority and CCI are two critical forums to pre-empt or resolve water-related conflicts among domestic stakeholders. Over the years, these forums have been reduced to spineless entities. The tampering done with their structures, functions and decision-making process have eroded their vitality. Irsa’s credibility touched rock-bottom when it issued a water-availability certificate for the Cholistan canal, while dismissing solid arguments from a member from Sindh.
Paradoxically, the same Irsa had been denying water distribution under the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord for over two decades citing water shortages in rivers as the reason. It suddenly discovered surplus water for a new scheme that aims to irrigate a huge command area of 1.2 million acres in the Cholistan desert. Its suffered more ignominy when a recent verdict of the Sindh High Court revealed that the organisation had been operating in violation of the rules for 15 years.
Irsa’s legal structure demands the federal member be represented by Sindh but the slot was held by Punjab in a blatant violation of the rules. Hence, the court suspended the water-availability certificate for the Cholistan scheme. Not only was Sindh denied its legal right of representation in the federal slot, this position was also retained exclusively by Punjab and denied to the other provinces as well.
In a significant development, the CCI has recognised the sensitivity of water-related decision-making and set a positive precedent by making it conditional on the consensus of the federating units.
Had it not been settled politically, the CCI could have complicated matters by invoking Article 154(4) that provides a majority vote to decide the issue at hand. With four members from Punjab and the fifth one belonging to the PML-N, Sindh might not have expected a favourable outcome. Any such conclusion on the canal issue would have fuelled further political acrimony that the federation can’t afford.
In a wise move, both Irsa and the Planning Commission have been directed to ensure consultation with all stakeholders in the interest of national cohesion and to address all concerns until a mutual understanding is reached. This will set a new roadmap for federal entities managing inter-provincial interests to decide divisive issues through consensus-building and not through ‘ayes’ and ‘noes’. The spirit of federalism demands a painstaking process of consensus building for sustainability. The 18th Amendment and seventh NFC award are a testimony to this rewarding approach.
Amid a turbulent transboundary situation where the Indus Waters Treaty has been unilaterally held in abeyance by India, internal harmony has attained new significance. Settling internal conflicts through reconciliatory approaches is necessary, especially following distressing reports of shrinking water flows from the Karakoram and Hindukush ranges that feed our rivers. The region has already stepped into a water-scarce future and the ominous forecast of drought looms as glaciers vanish at an alarming pace. Such a bleak vista calls for critical introspection and wise action on the water and agricultural fronts. Water conservation holds the key to our future, and we should give up our archaic water management and farming practices.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1907919/a-step-forward
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URL: https://www.newageislam.com/pakistan-press/treaty-hubris-indus-crypto/d/135395
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