By New Age Islam Edit
Desk
7 November
2020
• Islamophobia Is Now A Real Problem In The
West
By M Zeb Khan
• Re-Election To UNHRC
By Irshad Ahmad
• The Past, Present And Future Of Gender-Based
Victimization (Part III)
By Dr Izza Aftab And Noor Ul Islam
• The Quagmire Of Financial Action Task Force
(FATF) Part II
By M Alam Brohi
• Afghanistan: A Peace Deal
By Sultan Barakat
• How To Engage Post-Election US
By Fahd Humayun
-----
Islamophobia Is Now A Real Problem In The West
By M Zeb Khan
November 7,
2020
Islamophobia
is now a real problem in the West and it has far-reaching consequences for the
global order and peace.
The West,
comprising predominantly the Anglo-Saxon countries, feels threatened by the
growing visibility of Muslims there. To try to snatch away the Muslims’
occupied ‘space’ and to send them back into obscurity, some leaders in Europe
and elsewhere have been employing tactics that undermine the very foundations
of Western civilization characterized by pluralism and liberalism.
For
centuries, countries like France and the US boasted of preserving and promoting
values such as liberty, equality, and human dignity as the basis of social
harmony and economic prosperity. Racial, religious and gender discrimination in
the public sphere continued to recede over time, until 9/11 when religious
identity and race resurfaced as vital issues in politics and in the public
discourse. Focus shifted subtly from ‘what you do and how you behave’ to ‘who
you are and how you look’ and created a phenomenon of ‘us versus them’ within
communities that had lived together for quite some time celebrating diversity.
The events
of 9/11 and subsequent developments in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria changed the
course of history in profound ways. A new world order emerged with new friends
and foes under a new theme of “the West and the rest”. Instead of fighting
individual terrorists or groups using violent means for political change, the
West (led by the US) projected Islam as posing a bigger threat than communism
did.
And the biased
media played a key role in demonising Islam and Muslims in the West so much so
that common people started believing in the most absurd and crazy stories about
an entire civilization. Headscarves, beards, mosques, holy scripture, and other
sacred symbols/practices were associated with obscurantism and terrorism.
But there
is a method to this madness! The sudden influx of Muslim immigrants in European
countries (thanks to external interference in Syria, Libya, and Iraq) was
viewed as an economic and cultural threat. Populist leaders have found a very
attractive market niche in a largely xenophobic social environment. The loss of
jobs, which in reality is the outcome of globalization, automation, and
outsourcing, is attributed to immigration. Brexit was one manifestation of how
populism can fuel economic anger as a means of political change.
The
scapegoating of Muslims, however, will prove to be counter-productive in the
long run. Communal tensions and polarization provide the seedbed for
radicalization and other social/political problems. Muslims, who constitute a
sizable minority across Europe and the US, cannot be wished or forced away by
insulting their religion or instituting discriminating laws in the name of
social integration. Continued surveillance of emails and phone calls in the
garb of security has already alienated the Muslim community.
How Muslims
can and should respond to Islamophobia and growing hatred is to learn from the
way the Jews behaved during and after the Holocaust. Instead of resorting to
violence, they not only used all communication channels to convey their
sufferings to friends and foes alike but also converted their pain into
strength by forging unity and winning politicians, intellectuals, and leaders
of other faiths.
Today, Holocaust
denial is a punishable offence throughout Europe and no one can write or speak
against it under any pretext including freedom of speech. Muslims can protect
their identity and faith more effectively by using non-violent means.
-----
M Zeb Khan teaches at SZABIST, Islamabad.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/740079-the-visibility-problem
-----
Re-Election To UNHRC
By Irshad Ahmad
November 7,
2020
In the
middle of October this year, Pakistan was re-elected as a member of the United
Nations Human Rights Council, which works globally for the promotion and
protection of human rights and also to address human rights violations around
the world.
Pakistan
was elected for the fifth time since the establishment of the 47-member UNHRC
in 2006, winning a seat after receiving 163 votes in the 193-member General
Assembly of the UN.
Pakistan’s
victory was not only cheered by the government including the Prime Minister but
most importantly by the civil society as well as leading human rights
organizations. At this juncture, the civil society organizations while
congratulating Pakistan for this victory, asked the government to recall its
responsibilities under international human rights law, and the promises
accepted and supported on the floor of the UNHRC.
Besides
other key initiatives, Universal Periodic Review (UPR) is the most tremendous
and pragmatic process which the UNHRC is conducting for the promotion,
protection and strengthening of human rights across the world. Throughout the
UPR process governments, NHRIs and civil society organizations are provided
with a platform to advocate for the promotion and protection of human rights,
while interacting with the respective member-state.
Lastly,
Pakistan's third UPR was conducted by the UNHRC’s Working Group in November 2017,
during which Pakistan received a total of 289 recommendations. Among those
Pakistan supported 168 while noting 121 recommendations.
If we
evaluate the supported recommendations, they include a recommendation from
Portugal asking Pakistan to “take all the necessary measures to ensure that the
National Commission for Human Rights is in line with the Paris Principles”.
Disappointedly,
the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government passed the KP Promotion, Protection and
Enforcement of Human Rights (Amendment)Act 2019 which repealed and took away
the powers of the KP-Human Rights Directorate to appoint and constitute its
regional offices.
Contrarily
to the Paris Principles, under the Amended Section 4 of the above law, the
regional office has been redefined wherein the respective deputy commissioners
have been designated the head of regional office, who shall report to the KP
Law, Parliamentary Affairs and Human Rights Department, instead of the Human
Rights Directorate. The above-mentioned department has now notified the
regional offices, bypassing the KP Directorate of Human Rights and curtailing
its mandate and powers for the promotion and protection of human rights.
Similarly,
since June 2019, the National Commission for Human Rights has been looking
forward to the government for the appointment of its commissioners. And for
this reason, since then the NCHR has been practically dysfunctional.
Unfortunately, both cases replicate the government primacies for strengthening
the human rights institutions.
Likewise,
during the third UPR, another recommendation was also supported, requesting “to
protect independent journalists and the media against any intimidation or
violence, including enforced disappearance”.
In recent
days, though, there have been numerous attempts to intimidate and silence
independent journalists and media persons; sadly, these incidents are
alarmingly increasing and perpetrators are roaming with impunity. The daylight
disappearance of Matiullah Jan in Islamabad and the abduction of Imran Ali Syed
from Karachi are among those cases where the perpetrators have not been made
accountable yet. In addition to these, there have been instances where
journalists received life threats or were attacked physically.
There is
also a recommendation from Switzerland, demanding Pakistan to “Make enforced
disappearance a criminal offence and ensure that all allegations of enforced
disappearance and extrajudicial executions are thoroughly investigated and
those responsible brought to justice”.
Regrettably,
Pakistan hasn’t yet criminalized enforced disappearances and torture as a
distinct crime. Still, cases of enforced disappearances and torture have been
reported. At the end of October, the Commission of Inquiry on Enforced
Disappearances (CoIoED) received a total of 6831 complaints of enforced
disappearances. Among these, 2083 cases are still under investigation. Although
the CoIoED has been able to trace 3761 persons by disposing of 4748 complaints,
still the perpetrators’ accountability remains unresolved and their identity
stayed as “undisclosed”.
Leading
human rights organizations report that custodial torture is still widely
practised in the country. We remember the very unfortunate death of Salahuddin
in police custody. In another incident, a very disturbing video went viral on
social media showing some police officials of the KP Police torturing a young
man, forcing him to parade naked and filming his private parts. There have been
also reports of torture and excessive use of force against peaceful students
protesting for their rights.
Conceptually,
the perpetrators of human rights violations are state functionaries or
representatives of the state, therefore, to curtail the perpetrators’ impunity,
the need for independent and impartial human rights institutions become
“imperative”.
In November
2022, the UNHRC will be reviewing the state of human rights in Pakistan in the
fourth UPR. It will then be a challenge for the Pakistani government to face
the review while carrying contemporary credentials.
Pakistan’s
re-election to the UNHRC is important and must be cheered but the real victory
would be if the human rights of the people of Pakistan were protected as per
the mandate and recommendations of the UNHRC.
-----
Irshad Ahmad is a Peshawar-based lawyer.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/740077-re-election-to-unhrc
----
The Past, Present And Future Of Gender-Based
Victimization (Partii)
By Dr Izza Aftab And
Noor Ul Islam
November 7,
2020
Similarly,
target 5.b seeks to ‘enhance the use of enabling technology, in particular information
and communications technology, to promote the empowerment of women’. In this
regard, the Pakistan Social and Living Standard Measurement Survey (2018-19)
reported that in juxtaposition to the 65 percent of the male population that
owns a mobile phone – only 26 percent of the female population has access to
this necessary technology. The mobile money initiatives such as JazzCash,
EasyPaisa, etc. in Pakistan have facilitated financial transactions. Many women
can get help from such measures in developing a sound business. Other than this
– according to the Payoneer’s Global Gig-Economy Index report for Q2 2019 – for
the case of year over year revenue growth, Pakistan has the fourth rank among
the top ten countries, with the United States holding the first rank. Although
gig economy jobs do not provide insurance and permanency, they are a good
substitute for restricted work conditions for women. Another hopeful aspect in
this regard is that, according to the results by a global survey by Payonner, in
the case of freelancing – Pakistani women earn 10 percent more (per hour rate)
than men. More so, there are many more examples where technology has
facilitated women such as the telemedicine portal, DoctHERS – which has helped
connect female doctors to patients in rural areas.
In light of
the aforesaid statistics, it is safe to say that the target of gender equality
in Pakistan largely remains an illusion. However, it is also necessary to
acknowledge the following measures. Establishment of Gender Based Violence
courts is another notable achievement. The establishment of National Commission
on the Status of Women (NCSW), and the Federal Ombudsman Secretariat for
Protection Against Harassment (FOSPAH) are also good initiatives in this
regard. At a provincial level, Punjab Women Development Policy aims to
eradicate gender discrimination across all spheres of society. Similarly, Day
Care Centers and Working Women Hostels in Punjab have been established. In
2013, the Sindh government passed the Sindh Child Marriages Restraint Act,
which bans the marriage of any child under the age of 18 years of age. However,
this legal restraint is yet to be enacted in other provinces, and at a national
level.
One line of
attack should be focused on eradicating widespread stigmas around women seeking
family planning services – so that women get the sense of independence for
their life choices, they majorly need. Mental health services should also be
facilitated, and made easily accessible
Cosmetic
changes, alone, are not sufficient to bring the change we largely need. Article
34 of the Constitution of Pakistan states that ‘Steps shall be taken to ensure
full participation of women in all spheres of national life’. We need to scale
up our efforts to provide justice to women who have suffered, and help them
continue their lives after providing them due relief. One line of attack should
be focused on eradicating widespread stigmas around women seeking family
planning services – so that women get the sense of independence for their life
choices, they majorly need. Mental health services should also be facilitated,
and made easily accessible. Women-owned businesses should be strengthened and
incentivized. Small and medium enterprises owned by women should be facilitated
in terms of credit and insurance schemes. Women need to be equipped with the
skills needed for the Fourth Industrial Revolution’s job market, yet, even the
basic statistics for education are not at par with what can be deemed
reasonable. For instance, the PDHS (2017-18) results show that in Pakistan, out
of a sample of de facto household population aged 6 and older – the median
number of years of schooling among women is 0.1 year and for men, the same
number accounts to 4 years. Additionally and most significantly, violence against
women should be eradicated in all spheres. As UN’s former Secretary-General,
Ban Ki-Moon said that ‘There is one universal truth, applicable to all
countries, cultures and communities: violence against women is never
acceptable, never excusable, never tolerable.’ Amidst the second wave of
Covid-19 and the chances of lockdown, major efforts need to be made towards
ensuring that predicted violence cases for women should be avoided by maximum
possible interventions. Moreover, young girls missing out on school education
and do not have the means of continuing it through technological modes – should
be facilitated – because the already wide literacy divide should be narrowed,
rather than to augment it. As these girls are at a greater chance of dropping out
permanently because of our socio-economic fabric.
It is
important to add towards the end, that this piece has primarily dealt with the
conventional binaries of gender. However, full-scale gender equality cannot be
achieved without granting other genders their due rights as well. Pakistan
passed the Transgender Persons Act in 2018. According to a recent paper
published in the LUMS Law Journal, ‘this legislative enactment aimed at
enforcing the constitutional rights of the transgender community in Pakistan.
However, the Act falls short at several fronts, and fails to acknowledge the
structural violence and prejudices faced by the community, and without such a
realization, it is hard to ensure the provisions of fundamental rights to the
transgender persons in Pakistan’ (Islam, 2020).
-----
Dr. Izza Aftab is the chairperson of the
Economics Department at Information Technology University, Lahore. She is also
the Director of the SDG Tech Lab and the Program Director of Safer Society for
Children. She has a PhD in Economics from The New School University (NY, USA)
and is a Fulbrighter. She tweets @izzaaftab.
Noor Ul Islam is currently working as a
Research Associate at the SDG Tech Lab established in collaboration with
Information Technology University, Lahore, UNDP and UNFPA. She is a
post-graduate in Economics from Lahore University of Management Sciences. She
tweets @Noor_Ul_Islam20.
https://dailytimes.com.pk/686142/the-past-present-and-future-of-gender-based-victimization-partii/
-----
The Quagmire Of Financial Action Task Force
(FATF) Part II
By M Alam Brohi
November 7,
2020
After the
9/11, the terrorism, the terrorist organizations, their sources of finance,
assets, supporters, sustainers, financial transactions particularly Anti Money
Laundering (AML) and Counter Terrorist Financing (CFT)measures in countries
caught in cross hair of global terrorism came under international microscopic
scrutiny. Unfortunately, Pakistan was one of the countries where the militant
organizations found fertile grounds due mainly to its support to the US-led
Western world in the guerrilla war against the erstwhile Soviet Union in
Afghanistan. Later, the US invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq pushed Pakistan
deeper in this quagmire.
The Western
world activated the 41-member Financial Action Task Force to control the
financial flow to terrorist organizations. Pakistan, being in the cross hair of
terrorism, was identified as one of the countries where strict anti-money
laundering and counter terrorist financing measures were to be revamped based
on the FATF recommendations of 2012. Therefore, in October 2018, the world
financial watchdog put in place a formidable group of financial, legal and law
enforcement experts from nine countries and IMF to evaluate Pakistan’s case.
The document came to be known as the Mutual Evaluation Report (MER).
As put it
by a columnist, ‘the Report was a gigantic graphic indictment of the failed
Pakistan system, its broken laws, lack of commitment and coordination. It was
largely divided into two parts – Terror Financing and Money Laundering. The MER
is so detailed and goes into every small and miniscule aspect of money
laundering, as if the experts had put Pakistan under a super powerful
microscope and found each and every fault, crack, cleavage and hole in its
legal, administrative, judicial, security and political infrastructure’. The
Report actually was a charge sheet against the corrupt and selfish leaders, Law
enforcement agencies (LEAs), State Bank and public and private sectors
financial operators.
To comply
with 21 recommendations within this short period from June 2018 to October 2020
was no mean achievement and the government can rightly claim plaudits for this
stellar performance
There
commendations of the FATF were lying unattended with the previous two
democratic regimes since 2012. No anti money laundering or counter terrorist
financing legislation was passed. The Hawala or Hundi system was going in full
swing. The ill-gotten wealth, accumulated by corruption, drug trafficking,
fraud, tax evasion, smuggling, human trafficking and organized crime, was
laundered through extra banking channels and personal couriers (Ayan and Qatari
letter-like) inflating bank accounts and financing purchase of properties
abroad. The MER discloses that from 2013-2018, a total of 2,420 cases of money
laundering were investigated by concerned agencies. Out of which 354 were
prosecuted. Only one case, investigated and prosecuted by NAB, resulted in a
conviction.
The MER,
while making 40 recommendations, elaborately concluded whether Pakistan had
complied, not complied, or partially complied with the recommendations. The
verdict of the FATF experts was simply awful. The security forces had taken
care of the terrorism and terror financing through two elaborate operations
which came to be known as Zarb-e-Azab and Radd ul Fasad which went a long way
to break the back of terrorism and destroyed its sleep cells in mega urban
centers including Karachi. Unfortunately, this was not proportionately
supported by foolproof measures by the civilian rulers.
Thus, the
PTI regime inherited a formidable challenge from its predecessors. The Damocles
sword of FATF was hanging over the head of the country which had every
possibility of being placed on the black list. The PTI regime had to comply with
over 27 recommendations within a short span of time as the deadlines for
compliance in all respects had already expired. It took the matter seriously.
However, it needed cooperation of the opposition in the Parliament particularly
in the Senate to pass legislation to comply with the recommendations of the
FATF. The opposition was not cooperating with the regime – allegedly seeking
some reprieve in the money laundering cases notwithstanding the crucial meeting
of the FATF from 21-24 October in Paris.
The global
financial watchdog after its three day huddle in Paris came out with its
verdict on Pakistan which was both disappointing and gratifying at the same
time. Though the country has been retained on the Grey List, Pakistan was found
to have complied with 21 recommendations of FATF. Dr. Marcus Pleyer, President
of the Financial Watchdog, while praising the country for progress,
categorically declared it safe giving us time up to 21 February 2021 to comply
with the remaining recommendations which most significantly relate to Anti
Money Laundering and Counter Terror Financing and the improvement of its
strategic plans for the implementations of there gimes on these counts.
To comply
with 21 recommendations within this short period from June 2018 to October 2020
was no mean achievement and the government can rightly claim plaudits for this
stellar performance. However, with this comes the most difficult part of the
FATF recommendations. The regime has to show an equally high level of
commitment – going to be judged by the concerted measures it takes to implement
the four crucial and strategic tasks specified by the FATF. These tasks relate
to revamping of LEAs for identifying, investigating and successfully
prosecuting terror financing activities targeting persons and entities
designated by the UNSC, addressing strategic deficiencies and ensuring that
prosecution of TF including Non Profit Organizations and NGOs result in
effective, proportionate and dissuasive sanctions.
The main
hurdle in implementing the above strategic tasks as I can foresee would be the
infamous lethargy, inertia and endemic corruption of our Law enforcement
agencies and the traditional laxity of our administrative and financial
institutions at the federal and provincial levels and the concomitant
halfhearted attempts at implementation of Antimoney laundering laws. We should
also revamp our strategic policy on the persons and entities operating from –
or remaining inactive in – our land who/which have been already on the
proscribed list of the United Nations Security Council. The Hawala/Hundi system
is operating clandestinely in some areas of our mega cities with the connivance
of the LEAs. This is dangerous and would not remain hidden from the super
microscopic scrutiny of the FATF experts. The Government should also revamp the
powers of the National Accountability to implement anti money laundering laws.
-----
M Alam Brohiwas a member of the Foreign Service
of Pakistan and he has authored two books
https://dailytimes.com.pk/686143/the-quagmire-of-financial-action-task-force-fatf-part-ii/
-----
Afghanistan: A Peace Deal
By Sultan Barakat
November 7,
2020
While the
international community’s attention is focused on the landmark intra-Afghan
peace talks currently taking place in the Qatari capital Doha, a new report
detailing the staggering amounts of money lost to ‘corruption, abuse and waste’
in Afghanistan in the last two decades highlighted the many challenges the
country will continue to face even after the signing of a long-awaited peace deal
between the Taliban and the Afghan government.
Since the
toppling of the Taliban regime in late 2001, the US Congress has appropriated
nearly $134bn for Afghan reconstruction programmes. This is almost equivalent
to the amount the United States spent on rebuilding Western Europe in the
aftermath of World War II, which cost approximately $135bn in today’s money and
constituted about 4.3 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the US.
The office
of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) – the
US government’s independent oversight authority on Afghan reconstruction –
recently released a report containing a forensic audit of $63bn of the money
the US has spent on Afghanistan’s reconstruction since 2002. The report, published
on October 20, concluded that “a total of approximately $19 billion, or 30% of
the amount reviewed, was lost to waste, fraud, and abuse.” In 2018-2019 alone,
the report said, approximately $1.8bn was lost to corruption.
The SIGAR
report clearly demonstrates that endemic corruption, widespread insecurity, and
lack of accountability continue to make investing in Afghanistan highly risky.
This exposes the failure of the Afghan government’s efforts to prevent the
proliferation of corruption and casts serious doubts over its ability to
successfully oversee the reconstruction of the war-torn country after reaching
a settlement with the Taliban.
Afghanistan
has come a long way in the last two decades. Millions of girls are now in
school, infrastructure has been built across the country, and through a
nation-wide community development scheme, local communities now have the
ability to control their affairs at the village level. Yet considering the huge
sums spent on nation-building initiatives and the persistence of problems like
widespread poverty, insecurity, and institutional fragility, it is clear the
right formula for ensuring the sustainable reconstruction of Afghanistan is yet
to emerge. In fact, almost no progress has been made on this front since I led
a major study on the reconstruction of Afghanistan on behalf of the UK
government more than a decade ago, in 2008.
It is
important for those negotiating in Doha to understand that, whatever the
outcome of their talks may be, Afghanistan will remain highly dependent on
foreign aid for the foreseeable future. By some conservative estimates, it
needs $5bn in foreign aid annually merely to prevent the collapse of its core
institutions. As donor fatigue sets in after 20 years of inefficient
reconstruction spending, combined with the added pressures on foreign aid
budgets exerted by populist nationalism and more recently the COVID-19
pandemic, there is a need for a clear plan to address systemic problems that
undermine reconstruction and development efforts in Afghanistan. It is vital
that those seeking to gain authority in a post-settlement Afghanistan see that
the country’s myriad problems cannot be resolved simply by agreeing on an end
to violence.
Whatever
the shape or form the settlement reached between the Taliban and the Afghan
government takes, those in the driving seat of the country will assume a huge
financial responsibility. To ensure investments made in post-settlement
Afghanistan are not lost to waste, corruption and abuse like before, they will
need to renew citizens’ as well as donors’ trust in state institutions.
The
enormity of the challenge ahead and the need for a strong central state for a
successful political transition was recently acknowledged by Afghanistan’s
President Ashraf Ghani in his lecture at the Center for Conflict and
Humanitarian Studies. While Afghanistan’s institutional architecture is
definitely not perfect and it may prove impossible for the Afghan government to
distance themselves totally from the findings in the SIGAR report, with talks
ongoing, there is an opportunity for a new start – an opportunity for the
government to lay out a new vision for the country that can assure donors and
the international community at large that things are going to be different in
the post-settlement era.
It would
also be prudent for the Taliban to dedicate some thought into how they would
address this issue should the agreement incorporate them into state
institutions. There is now a clear opportunity, and expectation, for the
Taliban to take some firm positions and communicate to the Afghan people how
they can be a partner in addressing poverty, the marginalisation of women, and
fostering responsive and accountable institutions in the post-settlement era.
If Afghans
wait until a political settlement is reached in Doha to discuss these issues,
then it will be too late. Both sides need to engage all sectors of the Afghan
society in a wide-ranging dialogue on these core issues and deliberate over
alternative routes towards sustainable, long-term reconstruction.
As such,
the forthcoming donor pledging conference for Afghanistan’s future, which will
be co-hosted by Finland, Afghanistan, and the United Nations in Geneva on
November 23 and 24, must be used as an opportunity to focus the involved
parties’ minds on these developmental challenges and what role they can play in
advancing realistic and sustainable peace plans.
A key
aspect of this should be encouraging the Afghan government to come up with and
present to donors local development plans, including for areas that are
currently ruled by the Taliban and that have long been neglected. This may push
policymakers to engage with local communities in those areas, identify their
needs. This could also help all involved parties to incorporate the positions
of the Taliban into the agenda of the conference, even if the group would not
have a seat at the table.
----
Excerpted: ‘A peace deal alone cannot solve
Afghanistan’s myriad problems’
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/740078-a-peace-deal
-----
How To Engage Post-Election US
By Fahd Humayun
November 7,
2020
As the dust
settles on a closely contested presidential election in Washington, many
Pakistanis are wondering what kind of engagement they can expect over the next
four years from the world’s only unipolar power.
Indeed, how
does the outcome, consequential as it undeniably will be for American
democracy, practically translate into the new administration’s foreign policy
objectives in South Asia.
History
might serve as a useful guide. Since 2001, geopolitical constraints have
limited the scope for renewal in the Pak-US relationship, domestic turning
points in the US notwithstanding. As the curtain closes on perhaps the most
bitterly fought US election in recent memory, two such structural constraints
stand out among the determinants behind the new administration’s engagement
with Pakistan and South Asia over the next four years.
The first
is tactical: the US may well be exiting Afghanistan after 19 years, but a
peaceful, stable and solvent country at peace with itself and its neighbours is
not one of the legacies it is leaving behind. Pakistan is hugely apprehensive
about the threat of an aborted peace plan hanging over the region. It is also
cognizant of Washington’s vastly diminished appetite for a continued presence
in the country, both as a means to getting the Taliban and the Kabul government
to agree to a peace deal, and as a security end in itself.
The risks
to hard-won regional equity from an unfinished Afghan endgame will very likely
be compounded by the tone the new administration chooses to take with Iran and
China. Should the peace process next-door collapse, or Kabul find itself in a
perpetual conflict trap, expect more mistrust between Afghan, American and
Pakistani officials.
The next
constraint is strategic. Washington’s pivot to Asia, now written into multiple
national security documents, means that the containment of China will continue
to colour South Asia’s relevance to audiences on and around Capitol Hill. Ergo,
a new administration will continue past practice of viewing South Asia as a
surrogate theater in the emerging Sino-US cold war. Pompeo’s visit to a gamut
of littoral states stretching from India to Vietnam and announcement of a US
embassy in the Maldives, a week before the election, signals the strategic
continuity observers can expect on this front.
Where does
this leave Pakistan? This is a difficult question. Despite a history of ups and
downs, the US today is Pakistan’s biggest trading partner. Pakistan also now
needs the IMF loan program to resume to deliver stability to Pakistan’s
external account.
But while
Prime Minister Imran Khan and President Trump struck a convivial if not
necessarily unlikely acquaintanceship in the former’s first visit to the White
House, the constraints cited earlier need to be surmounted. And should a Biden
administration bring back technical specialists to rehabilitate US foreign
policy as is widely expected, there will likely be greater nuance in how
America reads Pakistan.
This means
that executive spontaneity or bonhomie will continue to be counterbalanced by a
less-than-sanguine US bureaucracy predisposed to viewing Pakistan in
transactional and utilitarian terms. This, together with the lack of
substantive content in the Pak-US relationship these past four years, may
discourage recipients in Islamabad from expecting a major departure during the
next four.
This
pessimism is not entirely unjustified; diplomats in both countries have worked
hard to unlearn their pathological tendency to blame and shame the other since
the ill-fated events of 2011; but America’s ambivalence to the Kashmir dispute
and its geostrategic alignment with New Delhi still signals to Islamabad US
self-interest and the primacy the latter places on hard realpolitik.
President
Trump may have offered to mediate the Kashmir dispute, but in the long run
America’s retreat from multilateralism only dilutes the global currency
afforded to international problem solving. This is a predicament for Islamabad
whose compass on Kashmir derives from rules-based legality and UNSC
resolutions. Finally, in moments of crisis in South Asia, decision-makers in
Islamabad worry that the US will condition its own behaviour on the utility it
gets from building India up as a longer-term strategic counterweight to China.
But despite
these limitations, the aftermath of the US election offers Pakistani
policymakers at least four opportunities that they should cash in on.
First, the
PTI-led government should reach out to congratulate the new administration and
signal at the earliest the mutual imperative of staying the course on
Afghanistan. Islamabad has been committed to ensuring political stability in
Afghanistan, but absent American support and cooperation lies a real danger
that the peace process and the fragile gains of the past decade, including on
women’s rights will buckle under the weight of contingencies and stakeholder
fatigue. This is not something that any Pakistani wishes to see, even if an
Afghan reconciliation that brings the Taliban to the table happens to be viewed
sub optimally elsewhere in South Asia.
Two, while
the US has long-sought to cast its relationship with India and the convergence
therein on the basis of shared democratic culture, there is also a recognition
that this culture is fast eroding. For all its weaknesses, Pakistan now has an
opportunity to emphasize an avatar defined by a decade of democratic
consolidation and, should sobriety and pluralism in Islamabad prevail,
journalistic freedoms, human rights and environmental protections.
These are
important hallmarks that Congressional lawmakers will find difficult to ignore,
especially in the face of creeping authoritarianism to Pakistan’s east.
Democratic pluralism in Pakistan similarly strengthens Islamabad’s
international position on Kashmir, where voices across the aisle in the US note
in private, if not yet in public, New Delhi’s bulldozing of individual freedoms
and constitutional guarantees.
Three:
because relationships rarely survive on the endorphins of feel-good photo-ops
alone, Pakistan should purposefully press ahead on the Strategic Dialogue that
expanded the Pak-US relationship beyond strategic issues. This will service an
agenda concomitant with economic stability in Pakistan, which in the face of
new geopolitical pressures is really the only bankable denominator that can
help critical relationships evolve beyond a language of expediency. Pakistan
needs to cash in on the fact that there are fewer strategic gaps in the Pak-US
relationship than there were a decade ago. This stability in turn should give
way to a serious conversation about fostering economic growth, and how
Pakistan’s young, democratically minded 220 million-strong market could become
a key node of bilateral convergence, especially for U.S. businesses and
companies looking to invest in the country.
Four:
discreetly, Pakistan needs to explain to Washington why attempts to forcibly
overlay Indo-Pacific binaries into South Asia (or neutralize Pakistan’s
strategic partnership with China) are in fact inimical to America’s long-term
interests. Even as the US arms India with the latest weapons and technologies,
the China-Pakistan relationship is in contrast geared at shoring up economic
and energy connectivity that could benefit the entire region, including
Afghanistan whose solvency presents the West with a compelling reason to ease
up on anti-CPEC propaganda. Furthermore, even rational voices in India (or
what’s left of them) recognize today that despite the BJP’s political bluster,
New Delhi cannot afford to be hemmed into an open-ended military tussle with
China. This is reason enough for the US to not force Pakistan into making a
choice between strategic camps; this in turn can provide Pakistan the space to
signal to the US the unhelpfulness of India’s politicization of the Financial
Action Task Force, and objections by the US to the terms of Pakistan’s
relationship with China.
The Pak-US
relationship has rarely been an easy ride, even at the best of times. And a
deeply polarizing election in Washington is hardly the most opportune window
for a comprehensive reset. As both countries navigate the uncertainties of a
post-pandemic future, we should anticipate the baseline relationship to be
punctuated by structural irritants. But this anticipation should also breed
creativity; Islamabad can and ought to demonstrate some deftness in how it
chooses to approach the new administration. This should start with informal and
formal invitations to the administration and its teams to visit Islamabad,
while folks behind the scenes get to work.
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Fahd Humayun is a PhD candidate at Yale.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/740074-how-to-engage-post-election-us
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