Pakistan Press on: Pakistan, Governance, Trade, Geoponics: New Age Islam's Selection, 10 April 2025
By New Age Islam Edit Desk
10 April 2025
Pakistan’s Quiet Road to Success
AI: A Governance Priority
Follow The White Rabbit
Navigating Trade Barriers
Nether Regions
Geopolitics Of Dams
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Pakistan’s Quiet Road to Success
By Bilal Ijaz Gilani
April 10, 2025
Poverty has long plagued both India and Pakistan, two neighbours with shared histories and many would argue intertwined fates. Yet, as the years have unfolded, their economic trajectories have diverged.
For those with an interest in political economy such as myself, the trajectory both countries have taken paint a fascinating picture of contrasting choices and outcomes. Pakistan, despite its slower economic growth, which has seen many ebbs and flows, has on average outperformed India in what i feel are key areas such as achieving lower inequality, generating household assets more equitably, and ensuring greater happiness among its citizens.
I understand that to take this position is controversial given the current atmosphere where India is presented as beacon of growth and Pakistan in many ways a basket case of failed growth. My study of economic and social data, however, compels me to go beyond what is in the news regarding both the countries and to bring out what is borne by data even if it contradicts the dominant narrative.
In some ways this article is prompted by the view taken by Pakistani economists (for full disclosure I am not an economist by training) who often adopt a pessimistic view of the country's economic progress, focusing on its slower GDP growth compared to India. However, this perspective may overlook an important nuance: Pakistan’s more modest growth rate has coincided with lower inequality and a stronger capacity for asset generation and generally higher wellbeing as measured by happiness index.
In many ways, one could argue that the quality of economic growth in Pakistan has been better than India in achieving socially compatible objectives and goals. I am in no way suggesting that Pakistan does not have its set of challenges (there is no shortage of people who have pointed them in media and academia). What i am however suggesting is that Pakistan’s growth trajectory has followed its own local logic and that logic has delivered in terms of lower inequality (despite growth – an anomaly in usual economic trajectories countries have followed), higher assets generation (when it comes to comparison with India) and most importantly wellbeing as measured through happiness and its various indicators.
Since the 1980s, India has experienced remarkable economic growth. Reforms in the early 1990s unlocked its potential, driving its gdp upward and lifting millions out of poverty. By 2021, only about 12.92 per cent of Indians lived in poverty, a massive reduction from 54 per cent in 1980. This progress was fuelled by industrial expansion, urbanisation and technological innovation. However, with rapid growth came a downside: inequality surged. India’s gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, rose from approximately 31 in 1983 to 36.3 in 2021, underscoring the uneven distribution of wealth and emphasising Pakistan’s relative success in maintaining economic fairness.
Pakistan's journey, in contrast, has been marked by slower progress. In 1980, around 40 per cent of Pakistanis lived in poverty. By 2021, that figure had declined to approximately 21 per cent. Unlike India’s industry-driven boom, Pakistan's poverty reduction has leaned heavily on agriculture-led growth, remittances from overseas workers, and government support programmes such as the Benazir income support program.
Another hallmark of this growth has been small businesses. Latest estimates by Gallup Pakistan suggest around four million to five million such small and micro businesses have enjoyed relatively low regulation environment, worked under the radar and in many ways evaded taxes but created prosperity for their families.
While its GDP growth has lagged behind India’s, Pakistan has maintained a more stable level of inequality. Pakistan’s gini coefficient has fluctuated slightly but remained relatively stable at around 30.7, reflecting its success in preventing extreme wealth disparities. This stability
Has in many ways largely protected Pakistani society from the negative effects of fast modernising societies which lead to a breakdown of social cohesion, and a general atomisation of society.
A crucial factor underlying Pakistan’s economic trajectory is what i call lower equilibrium. Unlike India, where aspirations for upward mobility and rapid growth are more pronounced, Pakistan has settled into a lower equilibrium. This means that many Pakistanis may be less receptive to the disruptive effects of high growth, which can exacerbate inequality and create a sense of instability.
In a lower equilibrium, economic expectations are modest, and communities often rely more on informal support systems rather than formal financial structures. This resilience contributes to social stability and overall contentment. Rather than pursuing aggressive growth at the risk of rising inequality, Pakistan has prioritised a more gradual and equitable form of progress.
Moreover, Pakistan's economic structure is characterised by the dominance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) rather than large multinational corporations. Unlike India, which has developed a robust industrial sector with large conglomerates, Pakistan's exports are driven by a dispersed network of smaller firms. This lack of export concentration means there is no overwhelming reliance on a few dominant industries, contributing to a more resilient, albeit slower-growing, economy. While this fragmentation limits the potential for rapid large-scale industrial expansion and achieving efficiency and higher productivity, it also mitigates the risks of market monopolisation and enhances economic inclusivity. In many ways, the economic pie has not expanded as much as India but people in general have learnt to share the pie and enjoy it more.
Household asset ownership offers a unique lens into economic wellbeing. Recent surveys suggest that Indian households generally own more assets than their Pakistani counterparts, especially in urban areas. India’s household asset index (hai) stands at 64.2 compared to Pakistan’s 53.4 in urban regions. In rural areas, the gap persists, with India’s hai at 47.2 versus Pakistan’s 37.6. However, the disparity in asset ownership is notably smaller than the income gap. India’s per capita income is 57 per cent higher than Pakistan’s, but its asset ownership advantage is only 11 per cent. Similarly, India's gini coefficient is 18.2 per cent higher than Pakistan's, reflecting greater income inequality. These comparisons highlight Pakistan's more equitable economic environment, where even with lower growth, wealth is more evenly distributed.
While GDP growth is often used as the primary measure of progress, wellbeing and happiness offer a more comprehensive view of development. Despite its lower economic growth, Pakistan consistently ranks higher than India in global happiness index rankings. According to the 2024 world happiness report, Pakistan ranked 108th with an average life evaluation score of 4.6, significantly higher than India's 126th position with a score of 4.0. Factors such as stronger community bonds, cultural cohesion and informal support networks contribute to this trend.
The report highlights that 72 per cent of Pakistanis report having someone to count on in times of trouble, compared to 60 per cent of Indians. Fifty per cent of Pakistanis expressed satisfaction with their freedom to make life choices, while in India only 43 per cent reported the same. In terms of generosity, 30 per cent of Pakistanis donated to charity in the past month compared to 21 per cent of Indians. These numbers emphasise Pakistan's success in fostering a more connected, supportive and happier society.
The contrasting experiences of India and Pakistan offer valuable lessons. Rapid economic growth can indeed lift millions out of poverty, but without inclusive policies, inequality can soar, creating a sense of relative poverty.
Ultimately, Pakistan’s trajectory may hint towards a home-grown economic model — a model where growth is not pursued at all costs, but rather balanced with social stability and equitable wealth distribution. Pakistani economists and in general its intellectual class have tried their best to steer the nation towards the path taken by likes of south korea (high growth, high inequality, and the bouquet of good and bad that comes with modernity).
For seven decades, Pakistan has failed to fulfil that dream. Instead of taking the burden on themselves or putting it on government, perhaps there is a need for reflection that Pakistani society does not want a high growth, high inequality, state led, high tax and high service delivery model. Could the difference in Pakistan’s performance on the economic indicators vis a vis peer nation (such as India or even Korea) be explained by a difference in social values?
As a nation we need to look deeper to see if there is an indigenous growth model that is better attuned to the aspirations of the Pakistani public.
Https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1299712-Pakistan-s-quiet-road-to-success
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Ai: A Governance Priority
By Dr Samuel Rizk
April 10, 2025
The lightning pace of technological advancement, especially the advent and mainstream adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) across the globe in such a short span of time, has caught so many developing countries off guard.
Already struggling with the most basic aspects of digital transformation, these countries find themselves having to navigate a new unknown: the AI disruption. Such a rapidly evolving tech landscape prompted un secretary-general Antonio Guterres to convene the first-ever artificial intelligence action summit in February this year where he cautioned that the world "may not even be ready for the present, let alone the future".
Pakistan has a long way to go in providing equitable digital access to its population of nearly 250 million, half of which are women. Despite the country’s economic and social development challenges, its people are making significant headways in technology.
The country is the fourth-largest market for freelancers in the world. The national center of artificial intelligence labs at national university of sciences and technology (nust), Islamabad, has pioneered new AI-powered healthcare solutions, accurately detecting 98 per cent of tuberculosis cases and 91 percent of brain tumours.
Mahrose Zufran, a 16-year-old student from Rehan Allahwala ai school in Karachi, recently made headlines for using ai to create a Sindhi calculator in three days for Sindhi speaking businessmen who do not have formal education. These examples offer a glimpse of what is possible when technological investments are made to empower people.
This month, united nations development programme (UNDP) Pakistan’s national human development report (NHDR) ‘doing digital for development’ will commemorate one year since its launch in 2024. And this year’s first issue of development advocate Pakistan (dap), undp Pakistan’s flagship quarterly journal, marks this milestone by exploring the ai landscape in Pakistan.
The NHDR 2024 revealed that Pakistan’s entrenched wealth inequalities have deepened the digital divide, with half of the country’s districts having low digital development rankings. Half of Pakistan also still lacks access to smartphones, basic internet services and computers. The report established that without digital development, human development levels will remain low in Pakistan. This is also reflected in Pakistan’s latest sustainable development goals (SDG) ranking, where only 19 per cent of the country’s targets are on track. One bright spot in the nhdr was the effective use of digital wallets by women in Pakistan as 61 per cent of women were using mobile wallets as their primary bank account.
In this dap, there’s broad agreement among our contributors that as the world grapples with the challenges and opportunities of ai, the digital landscape in Pakistan is far from being a great equaliser. To do so, Pakistan should close the digital divide, ensuring that digital policies reduce inequality, and crowd in more collaboration.
At the un summit of the future in September 2024, a global digital compact was endorsed by member-states, including Pakistan. It offers a critical framework and roadmap for governing digital technologies and AI, focusing on three goals for inclusive digital futures: closing the digital divides and delivering an inclusive digital economy; building an inclusive, open, safe and secure digital space; and strengthening international data governance and governing ai for humanity.
Pakistan’s ministry of information technology and telecommunications drafted a national ai policy 2024 that aims to integrate ai into the national curricula and offer fiscal incentives to start-ups and small/medium enterprises. But policy must go hand in hand with a commitment to universal internet access if Pakistan is to harness ai’s benefits. This means providing affordable solutions to technology, and mobilising investments in reliable digital infrastructure, especially in rural and underserved areas.
Pakistan must also tackle its chronic challenges in education and employment to meet the demands of AI automation. Ai will create new jobs, but only for a highly specialised workforce. Ai will also lead to some redundancies where ‘routine-based roles’ such as clerks, secretaries and machine operations – jobs currently held by 42 percent of Pakistanis — could be rendered obsolete by automation. Therefore, Pakistan must urgently invest in reskilling in AI, offering basic digital literacy for its poorer factions and reforming education to further prioritise science, technology, engineering and mathematics (stem).
How does this all stick? When AI becomes a governance priority. Building on the 2024 NHDR’s 4as framework — access, adopt, anticipate, accelerate — the UNDP’s pilot programming will boost SDG-aligned governance by integrating AI-augmented data systems into annual planning and budgeting, real-time monitoring, and data-informed decision-making.
With only five years remaining for agenda 2030, Pakistan must sprint towards the ai finish line, powered by unmatched ambition and potential; 2025 can be the year to realise both.
Https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1299714-ai-a-governance-priority
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Follow The White Rabbit
By Sanam Akram
April 10, 2025
On January 6, 2021, the world watched as hundreds of ‘Make-America-great-again’ (MAGA) rioters broke into the us congress, walking the halls of the capitol building carrying confederate flags — some in combat gear, others in face paint and antlers. There were only a few hundred guards on duty at the time, and only a handful posted at make-shift barricades, the mob was easily able to force their way through. This was not innocuous, it was violent.
Five people were killed, including one of the guards after being hit over the head with a fire extinguisher. Throughout the riot, threats were sent via social media to members of congress opposed to the move to reject the election results, by the so-called ‘stop the steal’ mob. Yet most of the criminals who unlawfully broke into the capitol building were simply allowed to walk away.
Among the mob that stormed the capitol building were individuals sporting symbols of white supremacism and the letter q sometimes paired with a white rabbit, a symbol associated with the so-called qanon conspiracy theory.
What was once a fringe group believing in outlandish theories of a cabal of monied satanic paedophiles who secretly run the world, are now, worryingly, becoming more mainstream, with research suggesting as many as four million people subscribed to Facebook groups affiliated with the movement in august 2020. How is this possible?
Enter the rabbit hole.
Social media platforms such as YouTube and Instagram are programmed to keep users watching and are constantly tweaking their algorithms to make sure that the constant stream of videos or images is directed to your feed to keep you glued to your screen. It is these algorithms that have come under scrutiny recently when it became clear that they were responsible for the unprecedented rise in subscribers following accounts promoting far-right wing, and even extremist content.
YouTube was reluctant to step in and moderate content. The reason? More extreme content gets more views, and keeps users watching for longer periods of time. As a former design ethicist for google, Tristan Harris said, youtube will always drive your feed towards ‘crazy town’, because, chances are, it will keep you watching and engaged with the platform for longer periods of time.
In march 2019, YouTuber Caleb Cain chronicled his indoctrination into the so-called ‘alt-right’ in his video ‘my descent into the alt right pipeline’. He documents how he went from being a left-leaning teenager to an individual sympathetic with extremist right-wing views within the space of five years.
Initially attracted to innocuous content on self-improvement and philosophy, Cain rapidly fell into increasingly intolerant content and pseudo-psychology, such as the content produced by French-Canadian Stephan Malanou, who suggests that Caucasians are intellectually superior to other races based on IQ test data. (this pseudo-science has been thoroughly refuted by statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb).
In 2020, there were 75 people who expressed support for the views of qanon running for office in the us, 18 of whom made it onto the ballot in november and two of whom won seats in congress.
Marjorie Taylor green is a right-wing republican from Georgia who endorsed the message of the qanon movement back in 2017 and has more recently expressed a litany of hate-speech including fear mongering about an ‘Islamic invasion’. These events are not benign. Between 2019 and 2021 there was a 320 per cent rise in white supremacist violence around the world, including the Christchurch mosque shooting in march 2019, killing 51 and injuring 49, followed four months later by a mass shooting in el paso texas where 23 people lost their lives.
How can we explain the growing proliferation of right-wing extremism in the us? While there are undoubtedly several factors that contributed to the storm that resulted in Trumpism, qanon and the mobbing of the capitol building, three trends stand out as creating the atmosphere in which right-wing extremism has been allowed to thrive.
The federal minimum wage is worth 31 per cent less than it was in 1968, according to the economic policy institute. While successive governments, democrat and republican, have pandered to big business, middle and low-income families have continued to be squeezed to make ends meet. Many feel excluded from a society where the winner literally takes all, leaving the rest with nothing. Globalisation has allowed large corporations to outsource labour and services in order to cut costs and increase their profit margins.
The result has been a steady decline in the number of jobs available in the domestic market and a steady rise in the number of unemployed and underemployed. Since 1994 the real unemployment rate has risen, peaking in 2020 at close to 25 per cent.
The right-wing has led to the systematic dismantlement of welfare systems that previously helped lower income families get by month to month. The ‘family’ and ‘american’ value campaigns of the right have done more to push social reform, preventing women from working, preventing universal healthcare and access to higher education for all but the wealthiest Americans.
Since the 1970s the cost of childcare in the us has risen by 2,000 per cent. Yes, that’s 2,000. The right-wing has been successful in curtailing federal welfare programmes, including childcare facilities and welfare support to low-income and single parent families.
“people aren’t drawn to qanon just because they’re ill-informed, or because they clicked a link that skewed their algorithm…the conspiracy theory … preys, specifically, on vulnerable people”, writes faith hill in the Atlantic.
In a culture where entertainment has replaced education and opportunism has replaced objectivity, we must do more to educate people, particularly young people, on the dangers of predatory hate groups, and find ways to provide them with acceptance, community and purpose.
Https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1299715-follow-the-white-rabbit
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Navigating Trade Barriers
Ali Tauqeer Sheikh
April 10, 2025
In today’s complex global trade environment, Pakistan finds itself navigating between two competing demands: the trump administration’s protectionist tariffs and the European union’s emerging carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). While these trade measures emerge from different motivations, they highlight similar structural weaknesses in Pakistan’s trade framework that demand urgent attention.
As Pakistan grapples with the dual pressures of economic stability and climate vulnerability, an often-overlooked dimension deserves urgent attention: how trade barriers impact our ability to meet climate commitments. The tariffs announced by the trump administration have made it imperative for Pakistan to examine the underlying factors driving these barriers, quantify their potential impact, and adopt a strategic roadmap to not only mitigate these challenges but transform them into competitive advantages.
Structural factors behind us trade barriers
The trump administration’s approach to trade with Pakistan reflects concerns about several longstanding structural issues evident in the relationship. According to the national trade estimate report on foreign trade barriers (nte report), Pakistan maintains an average most-favoured-nation applied tariff rate of 10.3 per cent, with agricultural products facing even higher rates at 13pc. This protectionist framework runs counter to the administration’s focus on reciprocity in trade relations.
The administration has targeted Pakistan’s use of statutory regulatory orders that provide sector-specific exemptions and protections. These sros, often issued without stakeholder consultations, create an unpredictable business environment that disadvantages us exporters. Despite pledges to limit Sros to genuine emergencies under previous imf programmes, their continued issuance signals a resistance to transparent trade practices.
Administrative barriers are equally concerning for the us as Pakistan’s customs valuation lacks uniformity — the officials often using minimum values rather than declared transaction values. Requirements mandating physical documentation within shipping containers create compliance burdens that contradict modern electronic commerce practices.
Intellectual property protection remains another crucial concern. These structural weaknesses have provided the us with a justification for imposing tariffs, framed as responses to unfair trade practices rather than arbitrary restrictions.
The same structural limitations identified by the NTE report will likely impede Pakistan’s ability to comply with the Eu’s CBAM. These will initially apply to carbon-intensive goods, including cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity, and hydrogen, imposing stringent reporting and verification requirements regarding the carbon content of imports.
Pakistan’s difficulties with customs procedures and digital infrastructure create a challenging environment for implementing the carbon accounting required under CBAM. The reported “lack of uniformity in customs valuation” will only be exacerbated when customs authorities must additionally verify carbon content documentation.
Digital limitations pose another shared barrier. The NTE report notes Pakistan’s data localisation requirements and limitations on cross-border data flows through the personal data protection act. Cbam compliance necessitates strong digital systems for tracking carbon throughout production processes and supply chains. The frequency with which internet services are suspended further undermines the digital infrastructure needed for modern trade compliance.
Investment restrictions, including equity caps and repatriation hurdles, similarly hinder Pakistan’s ability to attract the foreign capital needed to modernise industries to meet both us trade expectations and EU carbon requirements. The reported contract enforcement difficulties further discourage long-term international partnerships.
Divergent motivations, convergent requirements
While the trump administration and the EU operate from fundamentally different policy objectives, their impact on Pakistan creates a convergent set of reform pressures. The us administration’s focus on economic nationalism and reciprocity shares little philosophical ground with the EU’s climate-centred approach. However, both demand similar underlying reforms to Pakistan’s trade framework.
While the us focuses on market access and economic competitiveness, CBAM emerges as a climate policy tool to prevent carbon leakage and ensure imports reflect appropriate carbon pricing. Despite these divergent motivations, both systems ultimately require Pakistan to increase transparency, modernise customs procedures, strengthen rule of law, improve digital infrastructure, and create more predictable regulatory environments.
This convergence creates a potential silver lining: reforms undertaken to address us concerns could simultaneously prepare Pakistan for CBAM compliance. For instance, addressing the reported weaknesses in customs procedures would benefit both relationships. Similarly, creating a more transparent system for regulatory orders would improve both us trade relations and provide the predictability needed for eu carbon reporting.
Expanding global challenge
The dual pressure from us tariffs and eu carbon measures likely represents just the beginning of a broader global shift. Some major economies are exploring or implementing similar carbon border measures. Even countries without explicit carbon border taxes are increasingly incorporating climate considerations into trade agreements and policies. These emerging systems create a complex matrix of compliance requirements for Pakistan.
Envisioning green CPEC framework
China faces similar pressures from us tariffs and European carbon border measures, creating potential for cooperation on compliance strategies. CPEC could evolve to incorporate green infrastructure and low-carbon manufacturing capabilities that would help Pakistani exports meet emerging standards.
CPEC presents a strategic opportunity to address both trade challenges through a green cpec framework with three components: a) low-carbon industrial zones prioritising renewable energy in CPEC special economic zones, b) supply chain integration developing joint Pakistan-china standards for carbon accounting, and c) technology transfer focusing on clean technology in future CPEC agreements.
From barriers to bridges
Ultimately, Pakistan’s response to these dual pressures will determine whether they represent insurmountable barriers or catalysts for necessary reform. By recognising the convergent nature of these seemingly disparate trade measures, Pakistan can pursue strategic reforms that strengthen its position in the evolving global trade architecture. The arbitrarily calculated barriers represent a stringent but straightforward list of complaints that Pakistan can address with speed, if the strategic objective is to regain lost trading space, and fill the void created by even higher tariffs on regional competitors.
Https://www.dawn.com/news/1903268/navigating-trade-barriers
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Nether Regions
F.S. Aijazuddin
April 10, 2025
History has been in love with Lahore since forever. It was not its only admirer. The Mughals remained enamoured of it. Akbar made it the capital of his kingdom for 14 years. Jahangir chose to be buried within sight of it. Shah aohan embellished its fort. Aurangzeb commissioned a magnificent mosque opposite the fort.
Under the Sikh maharaja Ranjit Singh, Lahore became the fulcrum of his sikh empire. It remained so until 1849 when the east India company possessed it. From then, it reverted to its traditional role, subordinate to Delhi.
Today, the capital of the Sharifs oscillates between model town (originally named ideal town) and ideal Islamabad. Sindh stands forfeit to the successor of the talpurs. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is a craggy eminence with feudal loyalties. Baluchistan is a crucible of fermenting dissent. The provinces of Pakistan are beginning to look like a cracked mirror image of the creaking USA.
No man in modern history has changed the world’s rotation as suddenly or as capriciously as president Donald trump has. He has reversed the globe’s orbit, from anticlockwise to clockwise. To trump, this makes sense. The sun should rise in the west and set in the east, at least for the next four years.
His imposition of tariffs is a message to countries worldwide to recalibrate their economies according to his reordered chronometer. To him, globalisation is a dirty word, and economic interdependence a synonym for weakness.
He sees no advantage to the us in Russia supplying cheap gas to Europe, or French companies buying components from Germany for assembly in France. Trump must have smirked when his protégé Nigel Farage of the UK’s reform party brextricated great Britain from the EU. The anthem in Brussels — Beethoven’s ode to joy — should be replaced by sauve qui peut (every man for himself).
In the hastily constructed temple in which trump sits as a presiding deity, a different mantra is being chanted. Globalisation is being replaced by transactionalism. It is economic narcissism at its best, or diplomatic worst.
Countries have already begun sending their emissaries to Washington to genuflect before the almighty dollar. Us secretary of state Marco Rubio is keeping count. He has announced that at least 50 countries have contacted the us to negotiate relief.
Pakistan has been quicker than most. On April 7, our foreign minister Ishaq Dar discussed with mr rubio “tariffs, trade relations, immigration and prospects for engagement on critical minerals”. The trump administration has imposed a 29pc tariff on Pakistan. Dar hoped for a reduction to 10pc.
After their call, the state department and Pakistan’s foreign ministry issued separate statements. The state department said: “they (Rubio and Dar) discussed us reciprocal tariffs on Pakistan and how to make progress toward a fair and balanced trade relationship”.
“the secretary raised prospects for engagement on critical minerals and expressed interest in expanding commercial opportunities for us companies.” The foreign ministry added that Rubio “reciprocated the desire to collaborate with Pakistan in trade and investment in various sectors, especially critical minerals.”
These critical minerals are the new weapons of commerce. It is well-known that the trump administration wants to strike a deal with Ukraine over critical minerals as part of the peace settlement between Russia and Ukraine. Less publicly, Washington is discussing simultaneously with the Congo critical mineral partnerships to “help end a conflict raging in the African country’s east”. Peace on earth is being replaced by peace for earth.
During the Rubio-Dar call, Rubio “emphasised the importance of Pakistan’s cooperation with the us on law enforcement and addressing illegal immigration”. Dar countered that Pakistan had already offered the head of Mohammad Sharifullah, whom the us wanted for an attack on its troops fleeing from Kabul airport in 2021.
Can Pakistan expect any relief from trump’s administration? The trade imbalance between the two speaks for itself. In 2024, the us imported from Pakistan $5.1bn, mainly textiles, leather goods, and furniture. The us exports to Pakistan included $772m of raw cotton and goods, $406m of iron and steel, and $141m of machinery. Pakistan (once a major cotton producer) now imports raw cotton and textile-based goods from the us.
Some classicists see a similarity between trump and the legendary demon hiranyakshsa. He obtained immunity from the devas against death by man or beast. He then stole the world and took it to the nether regions. It was retrieved by Vishnu’s avatar varaha who, being half-man and half-beast, sidestepped the protective condition.
Many pray that some bipartisan American — half-republican and half-democrat — will challenge trump and rescue our hapless world from this swirling disorder.
Https://www.dawn.com/news/1903260/nether-regions
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Geopolitics Of Dams
Khurram Abbas
April 10, 2025
Recently china has announced construction of the world’s largest dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet. India has criticised Beijing’s initiative due to potential downstream impacts. This isn’t the only dam in the region facing opposition from a lower riparian state. India is advancing several large-scale hydropower projects, such as Tipaimukh dam on the Barak river, which is opposed by Bangladesh. Ratle, Pakal Dul, Kishanganga, Salma Dam (also known as Afghanistan-India friendship dam), Shahtoot dam and Kamal khan dam have also raised serious concerns of lower riparian states, ie Pakistan and iran.
As per international law, states can construct dams within their defined territories to utilise water for various purposes. Construction of dams is an internal matter of states to support economic development because they provide a reliable source of hydroelectric power, which is a renewable and cost-effective energy alternative, crucial for powering industries and households.
However, in this part of the world, construction of dams is a major source of tensions between upper and lower riparian states. Due to several reasons, construction of dams is not viewed as a positive development; rather, lower riparian states question ‘geopolitical motives’ behind construction of dams by upper riparian states.
First, the historic baggage of armed clashes and unresolved boundary disputes have plagued bilateral relationships. In case of Sino-India relations, strategic competition and border dispute have added fuel to the fire. Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran have similar border-related disputes and a history of troubled relations, which adds mistrust with regard to the respective upper riparian state’s intentions.
For instance, Bangladesh and Pakistan do not view floods as the result of their weak water infrastructure; rather, both countries often blame India for flooding. Afghanistan, iran, and Pakistan face growing concerns over water scarcity, worsened by climate change, frequent droughts, and rising populations, which have reduced water availability for lower riparian states.
Second, the absence of a comprehensive water-sharing agreement between upper and lower riparian states is one of the major reasons for the construction of these dams. This also allows upper riparian states more freedom to take unilateral actions without consulting lower riparian states. Further, technological advancements and abundant economic resources have increased the ability of upper riparian states to construct big dams to control water flows. This is why upper riparian states reject calls to modify their projects to address concerns of lower riparian states.
Third, the changing world order and weakening of existing international norms has also ramped up the confidence of upper riparian countries. Upper riparian states view this evolving world order as an opportunity for maximisation of their interests with least accountability at global institutions. Thus, threats or attempts to restrict water flow to lower riparian countries have become a norm in international relations. This trend could be viewed in the middle east, north Africa and south Asia.
The Indus waters treaty (IWt) is the only beacon of hope that has managed water-sharing issues between Pakistan and India since 1960. Yet this treaty too is currently under significant duress. With India sending two formal notices to Pakistan (in January 2023 and September 2024) seeking modifications to the treaty, coupled with aggressive statements from Indian leadership such as “blood and water cannot flow together,” concerns have been expressed by Islamabad that India might attempt to take ‘unilateral’ steps or may divert water flow from the western rivers allocated to Pakistan.
Climate change and growing water scarcity are two primary factors that necessitate revision of the treaty. However, Islamabad is reluctant to engage with new Delhi for revision of the agreement. Political instability, economic turmoil, weak water management of existing resources and lack of expertise in water-related diplomacy are key drivers of Pakistan’s reluctance to engage with India for revision of the IWt. On the contrary, new Delhi today is politically confident, economically stable, and diplomatically assertive as compared to 1960. Hence, Islamabad does not view it as the right time to renegotiate the treaty. Resultantly, Pakistan’s reluctance and India’s push to revise the treaty have put the IWT’s future in doubt.
Recent trends suggest that dams with geopolitical motives will further mar bilateral relationships between upper and lower riparian states. The 2023 Iran-Afghanistan clash, which killed one Taliban fighter and two Iranian guards, shows water disputes can lead to border conflicts, if left unresolved.
Https://www.dawn.com/news/1903259/geopolitics-of-dams
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