Middle East Press on: Turkiye, Armenia, Gaza, Palestinian, Jails, Jewish: New Age Islam's Selection, 18 January 2025
By New Age Islam Edit Desk
18 January 2025
How Israel Should Tackle 'Transactional Trump'
Who Are The Most Prominent Palestinians Held In Israeli Jails?
Rebuilding Gaza: Enormous Costs And Complex Challenges Ahead
Will Gaza Change The Luck Of The Region?
Turkiye’s Crucial Role In Armenia’s Pivot To The West
A Prayer For Jewish, Israeli Leaders: Navigate Hostage Deal With Wisdom, Compassion
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How Israel Should Tackle 'Transactional Trump'
Y David M. Weinberg
January 18, 2025
With Donald J. Trump moving in three days’ time back into the White House, Israel must carefully calibrate its relationship with the new-old president and his team. Jerusalem has to evaluate what expectations and demands of Trump are realistic, and what price Israel will likely have to pay to meet his priorities.
This is especially true in light of the hostage-for-terrorist release deal that Trump forced down the throat of Israel (and Hamas) this week. What does this tell us about the incoming president’s proclivities and modus operandi?
The hostage deal and imposed ceasefire cannot come as a surprise.
For months now, Trump has made it clear that by his inauguration on January 20, he expects quiet on the Gaza front and other Mideast battle lines so that he can focus without interference on his priorities – which are immigration, the economy, and China. And reaching a grand Mideast strategic accord involving Saudi Arabia.
Everything else, Trump has intimated, can wait. This includes finishing-off Hamas and real military confrontation with Iran.
This is what Trump’s aides call “sequencing,” an ordered set of priorities where not everything can be tackled all at once and early on. In Hebrew, the relevant idiom is parah parah, meaning that you milk (or slaughter) one cow at a time.
It is not only a question of sequencing. It is also “transactional,” meaning that Trump runs his foreign policy with a business mindset: give and take.
Transactional Trump
Thus, “Transactional Trump” expects Israel to play along with his priorities, and this is especially true regarding a Saudi deal. The returning president intends to cut a tripartite American-Saudi-Israeli accord this year. For a range of reasons, this is one of Trump’s top priorities. It is well within reach, and it mostly jibes with Israel’s preferences.
However, Israel will have to swallow some bitter pills to facilitate this, like acquiescence to the US sale of F-35 fighter jets to Riyadh and acceptance of a US-backed Saudi civilian nuclear program.
Netanyahu also may have to mutter something about a “pathway” to Palestinian independence in the distant future – even though neither he nor the Saudis nor most members of Trump’s team believe this is feasible or sensible.
Again, in the context of Trump’s transactional approach to politics and foreign policy, Israel will have to play its part in facilitating the Saudi deal.
IF ISRAEL does so, it will be well placed to expect a return from Trump down the line on issues closer to home – ranging from Israeli assertion of sovereignty in parts of Judea and Samaria, to pushback against nasty international organizations that are at Israel’s throat, to US supply to Israel of heavy ordnance weaponry necessary for striking Iran, and more.
And remember, even if Trump is not going to green light in the near term renewed and decisive warfare against Hamas, he and his team are not going to delegitimize Israel’s continuing wars against Palestinian terrorism in Gaza or Judea and Samaria (and against Hezbollah and jihadist terror from Lebanon and Syria) – the way that the Biden-Blinken-Harris team did.
We also are not going to hear Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Walz, and US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee contribute to “Palestinianization” of regional politics by fetishizing Palestinians an “immediate” need for Palestinian statehood – especially after the Simchat Torah (October 7, 2023) invasion and massacres.
They are not going to qualify Israel’s “right” to defend itself by using the insidious Kamala Harris qualifiers “but” and “only.” “But too many innocent Palestinians have been killed, children, mothers…” said Kamala, and Israel can fight “only if this leads rapidly towards a two-state solution where the Palestinians have security, self-determination, and the dignity they so rightly deserve.”
Similarly, the Trump team is not going to justify and excuse the radical anti-American, anti-Israeli, and antisemitic rioters on American campuses by allowing that “they have a point” (another shoddy Harris quip).
And the Trump team, along with the Republican-dominated Congress, is not going to hide behind extreme liberal loyalties to the farce known as “international law,” whose holy institutions like the ICC, ICJ and the UNCHR refugee agency have taken to assaulting Israel with false apartheid allegations and war crime arrest warrants.
The Trump team is not going to fuel the nasty campaign to delegitimize Israel’s very presence in Judea and Samaria by conjuring-up and sanctioning so-called “violent settlers” and other “malign” Israeli civil society actors on the right-wing of the political map.
Pushback against all this by the Trump team is crucially important in rebuilding Israel’s legitimacy and standing on the global stage.
FORCING IRAN off its nuclear weapon and regional hegemonic drives through concrete military action is Israel’s top policy priority, and for this it needs Trump administration support and cooperation.
(Perhaps Israeli acquiescence in the Gaza ceasefire that Trump insisted upon will help in this regard. Perhaps. That would make the ceasefire deal with all its problematic aspects worthwhile – especially IDF withdrawals and the release of Palestinian terrorists from Israeli jails.)
But Trump is not there yet. Until President Trump is convinced – in my assessment, this will take some time – that no degree of “maximum” economic sanctions and no amount of his personal swagger and business acumen will do the trick in defanging Iran, he will not be ready to militarily confront the belligerent Islamic Republic.
But this doesn’t mean that time must be wasted. There is a broad range of important immediate initiatives on the table, below the level of a direct military assault on Iran, for revitalizing the US-Israel partnership and for hemming Tehran in.
MY COLLEAGUE Asher Fredman of the Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy has laid out a road map for taking the US-Israel alliance to new heights, in a 14-page focused policy paper. (Fredman also serves as director for Israel at the Abraham Accords Peace Institute.)
The paper details four areas for enhanced US-Israel strategic cooperation in the immediate term: defence, intelligence, and technological cooperation; countering the shared threats from Iran and its proxies; expanding regional cooperation and the Abraham Accords; and countering and defunding anti-American, anti-Israeli and pro-terror activity in international organizations.
The brilliance of the paper is its detail. For example, Fredman has specific proposals for expanding joint R&D on cutting-edge military technologies like high-energy laser systems, space and satellite technologies, unmanned air, ground, surface and undersea vehicles, hypersonic weapons, military AI, and offensive and defensive cyber capabilities; and cooperation in advancing precision medicine, digital health, drug development and bio-convergence.
He also suggests adding Israel to NATO’s Partnership Interoperability Initiative (PII) and granting Israel “Enhanced Opportunity Partner” status.
Regarding Iran, there are concrete proposals for enacting and aggressively enforcing sanctions on the “ghost fleet” transporting Iranian oil to Asia, and on any entity involved in the manufacture, sale, or transfer of Iranian military equipment or technology to other countries.
Also, imposition of sanctions on any financial institution that uses Iran’s System for Electronic Payment Messaging (SEPAM) to verify or conduct a transition. And of course, the Houthis should be listed back onto the US list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations.
As for regional accords, even before any deal is reached with Saudi Arabia, there is much to do – like advancing the India-Middle East-Europe (IMEC) Corridor to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); and expanding the I2U2 framework encompassing India, Israel, the UAE, and USA, to involve projects in space, energy, water, agriculture, transportation, and health business, academic, and civil society platforms.
Pushing back against terrorism in international institutions should lead to defunding of the UNHRC, OCHA, UNESCO, the UN Special Rapporteur on the Palestinian Territories, CEIRPP, UNISPAL, the UN Division of Palestinian Rights and the anti-Israel departments of the UN Departments of Political and Peace-Building Affairs, Global Communications, and Public Information.
American victims of terror should be allowed to sue international organizations that provide resources to US-designated terrorist groups and that would otherwise be immune pursuant to the International Organization Immunity Act.
In short, “Transactional Trump” is a challenge but also an opportunity. Israel has much to offer the US, and over time can realistically expect concrete returns.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-837908
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Who Are The Most Prominent Palestinians Held In Israeli Jails?
January 17, 2025
Under the Gaza ceasefire deal, Israel has agreed to release Palestinians held in Israeli jails in return for freeing hostages taken by the Hamas group in their 7 October, 2023 attack.
There is no final agreement on which prisoners will be released in return for hostages, in part because it is unclear how many hostages will eventually be freed or how many are still alive.
There are currently 10,400 Palestinians in Israeli prisons, not including detainees arrested in Gaza during the last 15 months of conflict, according to the Palestinian Commission of Detainees’ Affairs and the Palestinian Prisoners’ Society.
Below is a list of some of the most prominent Palestinian figures held in Israeli prisons.
Hamas figures:
Abdallah Al-Barghouti
Barghouti was sentenced to 67 life terms in 2004 by an Israeli military court for his involvement in a series of suicide attacks in 2001 and 2002 that killed dozens of Israelis. Barghouti prepared the explosive belts used in the attacks, including one on a Jerusalem Sbarro restaurant in which 15 people were killed, the Israeli army said. A father of three, he was born in Kuwait in 1972. In 1996, he moved with his family to live in Beit Rima village near Ramallah in the West Bank.
Ibrahim Hamed
Hamed, who was handed 54 life terms, was arrested in 2006 in Ramallah. He is accused by Israel of planning suicide attacks that killed dozens of Israelis. Hamed, who had been on Israel’s wanted list for eight years before his arrest, was the top West Bank commander of the Izz el-Deen Al-Qassam brigades, the Hamas military wing. He holds a degree in political science from Birzeit University near Ramallah. While he was a fugitive, Israel detained his wife for eight months and, in 2003, demolished his house.
Nael Barghouti
Born in 1957, Barghouti has spent 44 years, or two-thirds of his 67-year life, incarcerated by Israel – longer than any other Palestinian and is known as the “dean” of Palestinian prisoners. He was first jailed in 1978 for taking part in an attack that killed an Israeli soldier in Jerusalem. He was first released in 2011 under an agreement by which Israel released more than 1,000 Palestinians in exchange for Gilad Shalit, a soldier abducted by Hamas fighters in 2006. After his release in 2011, he married Eman Nafe, who had also spent 10 years in an Israeli jail accused of attempting to plan a suicide operation in Jaffa. Hamas accused Israel of breaching the deal when it rearrested Barghouti in 2014. During his first, 33-year stretch in jail, Barghouti’s parents and many other relatives died, Nafe said. Barghouti was a member of the armed wing of Yasser Arafat’s Fatah Movement when he was given his life sentence in 1978. Later, he joined Hamas, the group founded in 1987.
Hassan Salama
Born in Gaza’s Khan Yunis Refugee Camp in 1971, Salama was convicted of orchestrating a wave of suicide bombings in Israel in 1996 that killed dozens of Israelis and wounded hundreds more. He was sentenced to 48 life terms in jail. Salama said the attacks were a response to the assassination of Hamas bomb maker, Yahya Ayyash, in 1996. Salama was arrested in Hebron in the West Bank later that year.
Non-Hamas figures:
Marwan Al-Barghouti – Fatah
A leading member of the Fatah movement, Barghouti is seen as a possible successor to Palestinian President, Mahmoud Abbas. He made his name as a leader and organiser in both of the Intifadas, or uprisings, waged by the Palestinians in the Israeli-Occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip since 1987. He was arrested in 2002, charged with orchestrating gun ambushes and suicide bombings and sentenced to five life terms in 2004. Fatah officials have said that he set up the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, the Fatah armed wing, on Arafat’s orders.
Ahmed Saadat – PFLP
Saadat, leader of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), was accused by Israel of ordering the assassination of Israeli tourism minister, Rehavam Zeevi, in 2001. Pursued by Israel, he took shelter at the Ramallah headquarters of Arafat. Under a deal with the Palestinian Authority in 2002, Saadat stood trial in a Palestinian court and was incarcerated at a Palestinian Authority jail, where he was held under international supervision. The Israeli military seized Saadat in 2006, following the withdrawal of the foreign monitors. Put on trial in a military court, the charges against him included involvement in a militant group, weapons dealing and deadly attacks. However, the justice ministry decided there was not enough evidence to charge him with Zeevi’s assassination. He was sentenced to 30 years in jail in 2008.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20250117-factbox-who-are-the-most-prominent-palestinians-held-in-israeli-jails/
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Rebuilding Gaza: Enormous Costs And Complex Challenges Ahead
January 17, 2025
As the Gaza Strip lies in ruins from Israel’s ongoing military offensive, the task of rebuilding the Palestinian enclave will be one of the most formidable reconstruction efforts in modern history.
Since 7 October, 2023, Israeli relentless air strikes and bombardments have decimated Gaza’s infrastructure, leaving its 2.3 million residents facing catastrophic suffering and destruction.
Israeli forces have killed or wounded more than 157,000 Palestinians, most of them women and children, and reduced to rubble thousands of homes, schools and hospitals. Israel faces a genocide case at the International Court of Justice, while the International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants against its Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and ex-Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant.
Now, following a recently brokered ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, global attention turns towards the daunting challenge of reconstructing Gaza.
The agreement’s third phase prioritises rebuilding Gaza under the supervision of several countries and organisations, and experts caution that the road ahead is fraught with complex obstacles – from the logistical nightmare of debris removal to the enormous financial burden of reconstruction.
Scale of destruction
Covering just 360 square kilometres (139 square miles), the Gaza Strip has endured destruction reminiscent of the world’s most devastating wartime events, such as the bombing of Dresden in World War II or the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
A damage assessment from the United Nations Satellite Centre (UNOSAT) in September reported that two-thirds of all structures in Gaza had sustained damage.
“Those 66 per cent of damaged buildings in the Gaza Strip account for 163,778 structures in total. This includes 52,564 structures that have been destroyed, 18,913 severely damaged, 35,591 possibly damaged structures, and 56,710 moderately affected,” read the report.
The UNOSAT assessment in September had Gaza governorate as the worst affected region, with 46,370 structures impacted, while Gaza City had 36,611 structures damaged, including 8,578 totally destroyed.
A previous UN report in April 2024 estimated that around 370,000 housing units had been damaged by Israeli bombardment, with 79,000 completely destroyed.
Balakrishnan Rajagopal, the UN Special Rapporteur on Housing, has separately said that more than 60-70 per cent of Gaza’s housing stock has been obliterated. In northern Gaza, this figure skyrockets to 82 per cent.
The Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC)-led Shelter Cluster reports that nine out of ten homes in Gaza have been damaged or completely destroyed, alongside critical infrastructure like hospitals, schools and water facilities.
UNOSAT, in collaboration with the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), also found that “approximately 68 per cent of the permanent crop fields in the Gaza Strip exhibited a significant decline in health and density in September 2024.”
An earlier assessment by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in early 2024 found that “between 80 per cent to 96 per cent of Gaza’s agricultural assets had been decimated, including irrigation systems, livestock farms, orchards, machinery and storage facilities.”
Costs, time, and Israel’s blockade
The financial cost of rebuilding Gaza is equally overwhelming.
In September, the Arab States Regional Bureau of the UN Development Program (UNDP) projected the total reconstruction cost at over $40 billion.
The initial recovery phase alone – focused on restoring basic services and infrastructure – is expected to cost between $2 billion and $3 billion, and take three to five years.
UNCTAD, meanwhile, estimated the physical damage to Gaza’s infrastructure by the end of January 2024 at $18.5 billion – a figure seven times larger than Gaza’s entire GDP in 2022.
Rebuilding Gaza, according to various analyses, could take generations.
UN expert, Rajagopal, has estimated that reconstruction could take up to 80 years under current conditions due to the ongoing Occupation and blockades.
Even under an optimistic scenario where Israel allows a five-fold increase in construction materials entering Gaza, the UNDP predicts that housing reconstruction alone would take until 2040.
This estimate does not account for rebuilding hospitals, schools, power plants and water systems.
Experts agree that Gaza’s reconstruction will be severely hindered by the Israeli blockade, which restricts the entry of essential construction materials.
Shaina Low, a communication advisor for the NRC in Palestine, highlighted the urgency of lifting restrictions on “dual-use” items – materials like timber, cement and tools.
“We need to unblock bottlenecks in the screening process and ensure that goods are allowed to enter unconditionally,” she told Anadolu.
Safety and mountain of debris
The safety of returning residents poses another serious challenge.
The UN Mine Action Service (UNMAS) estimates that 7,500 tons of unexploded ordnance remain scattered across Gaza, clearing which could take up to 14 years.
Low stressed the importance of safety assessments “because of the risk of unexploded ordnance and also structurally fragile buildings.”
“There needs to be a priority of doing assessments to ensure that buildings are safe, and also informing populations that are returning to their homes of the potential risks,” she said.
On the scale of debris in Gaza, an assessment by the UN Environment Program (UNEP) in August had a figure of 42 million tons of rubble – 14 times greater than the debris from all regional conflicts in the past 16 years combined.
Other UN officials have said an estimated 37 million tons of solid waste has to be cleared in Gaza.
NRC official, Low, emphasized that rubble and debris removal has to be one of the top priorities, carried out in coordination with clearance of unexploded ordnance.
“This is a process that will take huge efforts and perhaps years to complete. Equipment and fuel must be allowed in to help expedite rubble removal,” she said.
Fadi Shayya, assistant Professor of Architecture and Urbanism at the University of Salford, drew a comparison with the situation after the civil war in Lebanon.
Over there, big companies were engaged to repurpose debris to reclaim land, and they “created an area that’s literally half of the area of the Beirut city centre,” said Shayya, who worked on Lebanon’s post-war reconstruction.
Housing, land, and property rights
Another major issue in the rebuilding of Gaza would be the housing and land rights of its Palestinian residents.
“For example, in multi-storey apartment buildings, where multiple families lived; the question will be how to ensure that there is enough room for returning families when you don’t have vertical space to house people and how land can be shared equitably,” said Low.
She also pointed to massive shifts in population distribution once Palestinians are permitted to move freely around Gaza.
“Displacement sites that currently exist will probably be emptied out and people will return to their homes – or what’s left of them – or the ruins,” she said.
“That will lead to issues around attempting to identify who needs what, and where they are when there is such a large movement of people.”
Shayya warns that redevelopment could mirror Lebanon’s post-war reconstruction, where companies “could not build on small plots which were inherited historically by many generations.”
To get around that hurdle, the smaller plots were clustered into bigger groups and the owners were given shares, but those were based on the price of the destroyed land, leading to “one of the biggest socioeconomic controversies in Lebanon,” he explained. Once they were redeveloped, their value went up 10 times, or even 100 times in some cases, but the owners’ share remained at the agreed level, meaning that all the profits went to the companies, Shayya added.
Future of Gaza and Palestine
Questions remain about who will lead Gaza’s reconstruction.
“Will it be the Qataris, the Saudis, the Americans? You have all these different paths intersecting in Gaza,” said Shayya, adding that international funding and internal politics will also be issues to address.
NRC’s Low emphasized that the reconstruction process “must be led by and centered around Palestinians from Gaza, those who have been affected by 15 months of hostilities.”
“The reconstruction process needs to ensure that human rights and humanitarian law are respected and adhered to,” she added.
Shayya also raised concerns about unchecked development, warning that if the reconstruction becomes a free-market endeavour, Gaza could lose its identity, replaced by modern cities that erase its historical and cultural significance.
This, he emphasized, was the version put forward by many people, specifically Israelis “trying to promote their settler colonial vision.”
He asserted that it could be a political project for Palestinians to rebuild Gaza in a way that reflects the new Palestine they envision.
If Gaza is treated as just another construction site, the deeper issues of land ownership and historical belonging will be ignored, he added.
“What was destroyed was not just stone … but an entire social and urban fabric, an entire landscape,” said Shayya.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20250117-rebuilding-gaza-enormous-costs-and-complex-challenges-ahead/
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Will Gaza Change The Luck Of The Region?
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed
January 17, 2025
The Gaza war has nearly ended, and it is time to cease the exchanges about it. Much has been said, whether truth or lies... So, what is your excuse for a word already spoken?
Perhaps Gaza, with all the horrors its people endured, may change the luck of Palestinians and the region. It is imperative to support the afflicted land so we can overcome this stage. Such support acts as a catalyst for a better future, enabling a new phase to begin after the repercussions and developments caused by Gaza and those yet to come.
The Gaza war achieved the unexpected: the collapse of a regional system and the emergence of a different geopolitical reality. Without it, Syria, Lebanon, and the region might have continued under authorities that incite further chaos and wars for another decade.
The longest and harshest wars of conflict with Israel have ended, and it is time to provide humanitarian support and assistance to two million people.
One of Gaza’s lessons is that no issue can be left unaddressed, leaving others to handle it. There can be no peace for Israel without peace for its neighbors. Signing a partial peace agreement is insufficient, as it leads to partial wars. Even the best and fairest peace agreement cannot succeed without being marketed against the prevailing cultural and media hostility.
The Gaza war may have ended, though some sporadic gunfire and clashes are expected to cease soon.
Gaza can first serve as a gateway to peace among Palestinians themselves, leading to an agreement on a central authority and ending the rift between Gaza and Ramallah that has persisted since 2007. It could be the entry point to initiating the two-state solution, a project Saudi Arabia pledged to work on, while Israel vowed to prevent. Every peace project begins with rejection and ends with reconciliation and handshakes.
What happened in October 2023 might be similar to the October 1973 War. That victory was limited – Egypt regained 20 kilometers beyond the Suez Canal in the war but, through the Camp David Accords, reclaimed all of Sinai, an area three times the size of Israel itself.
The Gaza war has altered the region, eliminating much of Hezbollah’s power and leadership, leading to the downfall of Bashar Assad’s regime, and ending Iran’s dream of expansion and dominance over the eastern Arab world. We now face a new and genuine opportunity for regional peace initiatives and an end to major threats and wars.
All eyes are on Iran, which remains in shock from the significant events it has endured and continues to face. What it built over forty years and acquired through force – land, influence, and proxies – evaporated last year. Today, Iran finds itself in a stage of reassessment, reflected in candid discussions in its media and likely deeper debates in closed chambers about its next steps. Iran has two paths: the first is to adapt to the new reality by pursuing peace and cooperating with Arab states to support Palestinians in their peace project. Such involvement would bolster the Palestinian cause and help its people achieve their aspirations without the need for bloodshed, destruction, and wasted billions.
The second path is to rebuild its military capabilities and ignite wars across the region to regain Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza. This scenario would be costly, and Tehran would struggle to find support from its people, who are already burdened by economic sanctions that President-elect Donald Trump and his incoming administration promise to intensify. The survival of the regime itself could be at risk.
Given the new situation, we must think realistically. This year has begun on a positive note: Lebanon has a new system, Syria has a different leadership, Hamas is set to become part of a unified Palestinian Authority, and there are signs that Iraq is seeking to rein in militias, if not eliminate them.
These changes have come at a high cost, as seen in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria over two bloody decades. But will this lead to a harvest based on ending unrest, chaos, and occupation while achieving regional consensus?
Before the Gaza war, such a scenario seemed impossible. Today, it is not impossible at all.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2586810
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Turkiye’s Crucial Role In Armenia’s Pivot To The West
Dr. Sinem Cengiz
January 17, 2025
In recent years, there has been a significant shift in Armenia’s foreign policy, often described as “de-Russification.” Yerevan is gradually distancing itself from its historical ally, Russia, and increasingly engaging in high-level discussions and strategic partnerships with the US and the EU, as well as with Western institutions.
Historically, Armenia’s security was linked to its military alliance with Russia. However, with the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia’s credibility as Armenia’s security guarantor suffered a significant blow. Moscow is also dealing with the ongoing war in Ukraine and the collapse of the Syrian regime, both of which give incentives for the Armenian leadership to shift its focus.
As an indication of this, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has stated that Armenia intends to leave the Collective Security Treaty Organization and has little interest in the Commonwealth of Independent States, both of which are led by Russia. Some pro-government political groups have even called for a referendum on Armenia’s potential membership in the EU. Moreover, Armenia ratified the Rome Statute after the International Criminal Court issued an indictment against Russian President Vladimir Putin.
However, Armenia’s signing of a strategic partnership agreement with the US on Tuesday was the most noteworthy development, given the country’s growing tilt toward the West. The two countries will also begin negotiations on a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, while Armenia plans to join the anti-Daesh coalition. On the security front, the US has allocated $27 million for Armenia’s border security and provided $16 million to support the establishment, training and equipping of Armenia’s nationwide Patrol Police Service. Increased Western investments in Armenia’s security and the conducting of joint exercises, such as the Eagle Partner exercises of 2023-2024 with the US, encourages Yerevan to break away from Russia’s sphere of influence.
This strategic shift toward the West is seen as an attempt to offer Armenia both economic relief and a sense of security. So, where does Turkiye, Armenia’s western neighbor, stand within this context?
In a recent conversation with a senior diplomat from Armenia’s Foreign Ministry, I asked about Turkiye’s role in Armenia’s shifting foreign policy. He responded: “The normalization process with Ankara would positively affect Armenia’s foreign policy. Armenia is getting closer to Western partners and has EU aspirations. Opening the border with Turkiye, a member of the customs union, could serve as a bridge between Armenia and the EU. A closed border would hinder Armenia’s closer cooperation with the EU.”
Turkiye’s position is important because it is both a member of the EU Customs Union and NATO. It is also in the process of accession to the EU, despite there being no significant progress in this regard in recent years.
On the other side, Armenia is landlocked and has closed borders with two of its neighbors, Turkiye and Azerbaijan. If the border with Turkiye, which has been closed since 1993 due to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, were to open as a result of the normalization process with Ankara, this would provide Armenia with a vital opportunity to expand its trade routes, reduce transportation costs, access new markets and improve regional connectivity.
Access to new markets in the Mediterranean via Turkiye could drastically reduce Armenia’s dependence on Russia. Turkiye is an energy hub connecting Europe and Central Asia, while Armenia could benefit from better integration into the region’s energy networks. Therefore, the strategic value of opening the border with Turkiye lies in enhancing Armenia’s transit opportunities.
Armenia is seeking to diversify its foreign policy, with economic incentives playing a critical role in this shift. Having realized that Russia has not been helpful in achieving its foreign policy goals, Yerevan now emphasizes sovereignty, democracy and pragmatism as its new priorities. To achieve this, it aims to break free from Russia’s influence, maintain an autonomous foreign policy and even engage with former adversaries to boost its economic interests. Turkiye fits squarely into this new approach.
The EU and the US have been pushing for normalization between Armenia and Turkiye. If it goes ahead, Turkiye could act as a bridge in Armenia’s pivot to the West, despite its own challenges with Western institutions, and offer opportunities that could advance Yerevan’s economic goals and reduce its reliance on Russia.
Armenia is already part of the EU’s Eastern Partnership initiative, which promotes deeper economic ties with former Soviet states. As part of this initiative, the EU has long sought to improve relations between Armenia and Turkiye. In doing this, Brussels’ main aim is to strengthen its eastern neighbourhood policy.
The US is also keen to push for normalization between Ankara and Yerevan, as it could pave the way for the opening of borders and enable Armenia to diversify its economy away from the Eurasian Economic Union. The US’ main aim is to prevent regional and global powers, namely China, Iran and Russia, from increasing their influence in this neighbourhood, making Armenia’s pivot toward the West more sustainable and less susceptible to reversal.
However, the Armenian leadership is likely to face significant challenges to its pivot to the West and normalization of ties with Turkiye, as these efforts are likely to be opposed by some in the country’s domestic political arena, not to mention causing discontent in Russia.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2586822
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A Prayer For Jewish, Israeli Leaders: Navigate Hostage Deal With Wisdom, Compassion
By Jonathan Lieberman
January 17, 2025
As I sit down to write this piece, my heart is both full and heavy.
Full, because, as those of you who read last week’s column will know, I have just spent 10 days on an intergenerational pre-bar mitzvah journey with my son and grandson from Australia—a journey that took us through the multicolored landscapes of our homeland and heritage.
Heavy, because this bittersweet chapter is closing as they prepare to return to the far side of the world, taking with them, I hope, a deeper appreciation of our people’s rich and complex history and the sacrifices made by countless heroes who paved the way for us to walk this sacred ground.
This trip has been a reminder to me, not only of the resilience of the Jewish people, but also of the unending struggles we face, both in our homeland and across the Diaspora.
The legacy we inherit is not static: it is a living, breathing responsibility. Each generation must grapple with its own questions, its own trials, and its own hopes for a brighter future.
As I write, the air is thick with uncertainty. The deal to secure the release of hostages hangs precariously in the balance. Will it succeed? Will it fail? Is it even the right course of action? Is it a good deal or a bad deal? Have we won, or lost? How much pressure have outside forces (eg. President-elect Trump) put on both sides – not just Hamas?
These questions swirl in every conversation, in every heart. Who should bear the blame for the horrors of October 7? Who should be held accountable? And perhaps the most daunting question of all: What do we do next?
The weight of these decisions is staggering. Each option seems to bear its own set of risks, its own moral quandaries. The voices on either side of every argument are compelling. For every right-wing perspective, there is an equally passionate left-wing counterpoint. For every humanitarian impulse, there is a potential consequence that must be carefully considered. The complexity is dizzying.
We need precision and wisdom
THIS MOMENT in our history requires the precision of a brain surgeon and the wisdom of King Solomon. But how do we achieve clarity when we are so deeply invested, so profoundly intertwined with the outcome?
As a doctor, I know all too well the difficulty of treating one’s own family. The emotional stakes are simply too high to maintain the objectivity required for sound judgment. And in many ways, this is where we find ourselves now—a global Jewish family grappling with decisions that will shape our collective future.
Around the world, our people are under attack. Synagogues are being burned. Jewish students face open discrimination in institutions that claim to uphold the ideals of higher learning. In Israel, our sons and daughters risk and often lose their lives to protect the freedoms many take for granted.
How can we not be deeply moved, deeply invested? How can we not yearn for the swift and safe return of every hostage? And yet, this deep investment clouds our ability to think rationally about how best to achieve this goal.
I will not pretend to have the answers. Like the vast majority of us, I lack access to the full scope of information available to those charged with making these excruciatingly difficult decisions. My opinions, like most, would be shaped by fragments of information, by rumors and speculation rather than the nuanced truths that lie beneath the surface.
So instead of offering opinions, I choose to offer prayers. I choose to offer empathy. I choose to give comfort where I can to those who are hurting, I choose to give support to those who are fighting, and I keep my mouth closed about my opinions on the “deal.” And I humbly suggest you all do the same.
We can pray for the negotiators, that they may be guided by wisdom and strength. We can pray for the hostages and their families, that they may find comfort and hope in the darkest of times. We can pray for our leaders, that they may act with courage and integrity in the face of impossible choices.
Growing up in the UK, I vividly remember the Shabbat prayers for Queen Elizabeth II and the rest of the Royal Family.
The rabbi would recite them with solemnity and purpose, and the words remain etched in my memory to this day: “May He put a spirit of wisdom into her heart and into the hearts of all her counselors, that they may uphold the peace of the realm, advance the welfare of the nation, and deal kindly and truly with all the House of Israel.”
Today, those words resonate more deeply than ever. This is my fervent prayer for our leaders now: that they may navigate this storm with wisdom and compassion.
IN THE face of such profound challenges, what can the rest of us do? Perhaps the greatest act of solidarity is to stand together, and to refrain from casting judgment without understanding the full picture. We can channel our energies into acts of kindness, into strengthening our communities, and into remembering that we are part of something greater than ourselves.
This journey with my family has reminded me of the enduring strength of our people, but also of the fragility of the world we live in. Each generation is called to write its own chapter in the story of the Jewish people, to face its own challenges with courage and resolve. We are not passive inheritors of this legacy: we are its guardians and its authors.
As my son and grandson board their plane back to Australia, I am filled with hope that they carry with them not only the memories of this journey but also a sense of responsibility to continue the work of building, preserving, and strengthening our people.
And as they go, I remain here, steadfast in my belief that through prayer, through unity, and through unwavering commitment, we can navigate even the darkest of times.
Let us pray for wisdom. Let us pray for peace. And let us pray that we may all find the strength to face the challenges ahead with grace and determination and avoid the destructive recrimination that accompanies the all-too-common blame game.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-837911
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URl: https://www.newageislam.com/middle-east-press/turkiye-armenia-gaza-palestinian-jails-jewish/d/134367
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