By New Age Islam Edit
Desk
17 March
2021
• NATO Needs A Plan To Better Engage With
Middle East
By Luke Coffey
• Netanyahu Takes Ties With Jordan To The Brink
By Osama Al-Sharif
• Iran’s Next Battle Ground: Afghanistan
By Rami Rayess
• Unconstrained Netanyahu Jeopardizes Relations
With Jordan
By Ben Caspit
• Israel’s President In Europe, Campaigns
Against Iranian Threat, ICC Probe
By Rina Bassist
------
NATO Needs A Plan To Better Engage With Middle
East
By Luke Coffey
March 17,
2021
In recent
years, there has been a major debate among policymakers in North America and
Europe about the future of NATO. One issue the leaders of the alliance need to
address is what its role in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region
should be.
While not
strictly part of its area of responsibility, NATO cannot ignore the MENA
region. Historical and recent events show that what happens there can quickly
spill over into Europe.
A decade
after the start of the so-called Arab Spring, many geopolitical challenges
remain in the region, from the rise of transnational terrorism to the nuclear
threat and state-sponsored terrorism from Iran. Many in NATO have, therefore,
rightly decided to place a renewed focus on working with regional partners on
the southern periphery of the alliance.
NATO
already has structures in place to improve cooperation with partners in this
part of the world but has done little to enhance these relationships in recent
years. The organization carries out cooperative security tasks with its
southern partners through two mechanisms: The Mediterranean Dialogue and the
Istanbul Cooperation Initiative.
Launched in
1994, the Mediterranean Dialogue forms the basis of NATO’s relations with its
Mediterranean partners: Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Mauritania, Morocco and
Tunisia. Although talks generally take place on a bilateral basis between NATO
and one Mediterranean partner (NATO+1), on occasion the forum meets as NATO+7.
This places Israel at the same table as some of its regional neighbors, where
it would not otherwise be.
The
Istanbul Cooperation Initiative, which was launched in 2004, currently forms
the basis of NATO’s relations with the Gulf states. Although all six members of
the Gulf Cooperation Council were invited to join, as yet only Bahrain, Kuwait,
Qatar and the UAE have done so.
NATO’s 2010
“Strategic Concept,” which runs to 40 pages and was intended to serve as a
guide for dealing with future challenges, is now woefully out of date. The MENA
region is barely mentioned in the document. The alliance is in the process of
developing a new version and should use this as an opportunity to enhance and
build on its relations in the region.
NATO
leaders need to develop a strategy to engage with the region. Partnership leads
to interoperability, which helps to promote understanding and security. As Iran
becomes more of a destabilizing force, and transnational terrorism continues to
plague the region, the alliance should build solid and enduring relations with
friendly MENA countries.
----
• This is
the executive summary of the latest research report published by the Arab News
Research & Studies Unit. Download the full report.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1826806
-----
Netanyahu Takes Ties With Jordan To The Brink
By Osama Al-Sharif
March 16,
2021
Last week’s
showdown between Jordan and Israel over the obstruction of a previously agreed
visit by Jordanian Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah to Al-Aqsa Mosque in East
Jerusalem to mark a Muslim holy occasion, and Amman’s retaliation by scuttling
a visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to a regional country, has
taken ties between the two countries to the brink.
Israel
claimed that the cancelation of Hussein’s visit was due to disagreements over
security issues related to protecting the heir to the Jordanian throne. But
Jordan immediately responded, through Foreign Minister Ayman Al-Safadi, by
pointing the finger at Israel for violating arrival protocols at Al-Haram
Al-Sharif and trying to impose complications to hinder Jerusalemites’ entry to
the mosque. In retaliation, the Jordanian authorities delayed giving clearance
to Netanyahu to come to Amman and board a private jet to take him to a regional
country. When the clearance was finally given, it was too late and Netanyahu
had to cancel his trip.
Tensions
between Amman and Tel Aviv, particularly over Al-Haram Al-Sharif, have been
brewing for years, but these latest incidents represent a new low in ties
between the two countries, which share a decades-old peace treaty. Netanyahu
has reneged on agreements and understandings with King Abdullah many times and
the Jordanian monarch has refused to meet with or receive calls from the
Israeli premier for years. But this time the level of Jordanian anger has
reached a new high.
The visit
would have been the first by a Jordanian royal to East Jerusalem since the two
countries signed their peace treaty in 1994. Jordan wanted to underline its
right, under the peace treaty, to have full access as custodian to Muslim holy
places in East Jerusalem. This was exactly why Netanyahu, on the eve of a
fourth Knesset election in the last two years and in which his political future
is at stake, wanted to abort the visit. It had nothing to do with disagreements
over security — it was a political stunt aimed at appeasing far-right Jewish
voters.
Jordan was
angry, as Al-Safadi put it, after Netanyahu reneged on an agreement and
disrupted a religious visit by creating conditions that made it impossible, and
then expected to come to Jordan and fly out of the country.
The
Jordanian reaction was meant to send a clear message to Netanyahu and his camp
of extremist followers that Jordan’s custodianship of Al-Haram Al-Sharif is a
red line and will not be challenged. The Israeli stunt not only violated the
1994 peace treaty, but also a 2014 agreement brokered by then-US Secretary of
State John Kerry between Jordan and Israel to “reaffirm commitment to the
status quo at Al-Haram Al-Sharif/Temple Mount compound.” That agreement again
recognized Jordan’s custodianship of the compound.
That
custodianship is also recognized by the Palestinian Authority (PA) and
reaffirmed time and again by the Arab League, Muslim countries and the
international community. But Israel, especially under Netanyahu, has violated
such agreements and understandings many times in the past decade. It has
allowed Israeli officials and Jewish extremists to enter the compound and
perform prayers. Some of the groups allowed to enter include ones that have
vowed to destroy Al-Aqsa Mosque in order to build a Jewish temple in its place.
Over the past decade, there have been many provocations by the Netanyahu
government relating to Al-Haram Al-Sharif. Every time they have happened,
Jordan has protested.
Over the
years, Netanyahu has ignored these protests and, in the words of his political
rivals and Israel’s top security officials, has severely damaged ties with
Jordan, which they consider to be a strategic partner. The incidents include
the killing of two Jordanians by an Israeli diplomat at the Israeli Embassy
compound in Amman in 2017, which deepened King Abdullah’s distrust of
Netanyahu, who had promised him he would put the diplomat on trial in Israel.
Netanyahu
looks out only for his own interests. While his political fate remains unknown,
his departure from the stage would be a positive thing for the region as a
whole.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1826636
-----
Iran’s Next Battle Ground: Afghanistan
By Rami Rayess
16 March
,2021
Iran is at
a crossroads. It has hard political decisions to make, with each leaving marks
on the regime itself, and the future of the region. If Iran has partially
succeeded in extending its arms through its proxies to several Arab countries,
there is a different front on the horizon to worry about: Afghanistan.
With the US
military withdrawal approaching and the Taliban being the most prominent power
to fill the vacuum, Tehran badly needs to draft a peace treaty. If it does not,
its power in the Middle East will gradually wither away.
Besides the
working difficulties that Iran will face in its attempt to control its 920
kilometer border with Afghanistan, it will have been the first to worry about
the US-Taliban agreement reached in Doha back in February 2020. The treaty
aimed to push the Taliban to cut its ties with Al-Qaida, reach a political
settlement with the incumbent Afghan government and reduce violence in the
country in return for the American military withdrawal scheduled for May 2021.
Tehran’s
relations with the Taliban have continued for years but they went public only
recently. Despite its attempts to cover up those contacts in the framework of
reaching out to all the stakeholders in Afghanistan; it was clear that Iran was
aiming at neutralizing Taliban in its multi-faceted regional problems. The
equation is straightforward and clear: if it fails to do that, it will not keep
its influence and continue to support its militant arms.
If the
Biden administration succeeds in regaining Iranian commitment to the 2015 Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) without amendment, it can set aside the
nuclear threat for years ahead.
Some might
look at the lifting of sanctions as leeway for Tehran to regain more resources
to exploit and further empower and arm its regional proxies. But, the danger
imposed by an open Iranian-Afghan border will need enormous funds to protect
from a Taliban building its strength.
Is it in
the best interest of Iran and the US to withdraw from Afghanistan? The Iranians
supported the US invasion of Kabul back in 2001. It had almost waged war
against the Taliban in 1998 in retaliation to the killing of nine diplomats in
the Iranian consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif when Taliban militants raided it.
Tehran also
expelled Gulbuddin Hekmatyar because of his hostility to the United States.
When
Iranian political pragmatism prevails, the great Satan (a term regularly used
in Iranian rhetoric against Washington) is not quite Satan after all.
This
back-and-forth relationship between Iran and the Taliban has come at a crucial
moment. Despite the Biden administration reviewing the Doha accord of 2020, is
still possesses the strongest playing cards in Afghanistan, with troops
deployed, a pro-American government, and sanctions not lifted, yet. Iran does
not have the same leverage.
A vision
for the Afghanistan War prevails in Washington, based on the notion that a US
troop presence in that country isn’t endless. Employing it to support a
peaceful settlement that regains stability in the war-torn country is the priority.
However,
this does not mean that the withdrawal should drag the country into endless
civil strife, or that it cannot be used as a negotiating card, capable of
reshuffling the regional situation.
Putting the
political and ideological rift between Iran and the Taliban to one side, now is
the time for settlement between the two: this is Tehran’s crucial agenda.
Preserving
Iranian spheres of influence in the Middle East is the cornerstone for all of
its policies. This is the project they have prioritized since the Islamic
Revolution erupted in 1979.
“Exportation
of the Revolution” is the benchmark of Tehran’s revival of past Persian
imperial dreams. This has been in the making for decades, and its erosion now
is harmful for the regime.
Tehran is
now playing hard ball by: intensifying Houthi bombardment of Saudi Arabia;
paralyzing efforts in Lebanon to form a new cabinet; fueling added support to
its militants in Iraq, and of course, freezing any potential conflict with the
Taliban. Will Iran attempt to push this hardline extremist group against the
US?
When the
Taliban delegation visited Tehran last January, the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme
National Security Council Ali Shamakhani said: “The US strategy supports the
continuation of war and bloodshed among various Afghan groups in the political
spectrum”. This is the core of the story, the more the US and Taliban fight,
the better off Tehran is.
So, if a
Biden strategy aimed to cease rapprochement between the two parties, while
simultaneously dropping the nuclear threat by securing an immediate return of
Tehran to the JCPOA, unexpected repercussions might unfold in the future. We
may start to see Iran losing ground in its many regional spheres of influence.
https://english.alarabiya.net/views/2021/03/16/Iran-s-crossroad-The-Taliban
-----
Unconstrained Netanyahu Jeopardizes Relations
With Jordan
By Ben Caspit
Mar 16,
2021
The crisis
between Israel and Jordan described here last week is deeper and far more
severe than was previously known, as indicated by information that continues to
leak out of Jerusalem and Amman in recent days. According to senior diplomatic
sources in Jerusalem, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Jordan’s King
Abdullah have only spoken once or twice since they met in June 2018.
Israel no
longer tries to conceal the dispute among top decision- and policymakers
regarding relations with Jordan. At issue is the question of whether Israel
should continue to support the rule of the vulnerable Hashemite monarchy or let
it fall and strive for the kingdom to be replaced by a Palestinian state that
would annex the demilitarized autonomy in the West Bank currently controlled by
the Palestinian Authority (PA). The very fact that Israel is even considering
such an idea is being perceived in Amman as a flagrant crossing of a red line,
a scenario considered unimaginable until recently, which is barely causing a
ripple in the current strained relations.
The
intensity of the crisis was revealed in the morning hours of March 11, when
Netanyahu apparently instructed Israel’s Civil Aviation Authority and the
Israel Airports Authority to close off Israeli air space to commercial flights
to and from Jordan. The order stunned senior officials of both these
administrations. It had not been preceded by a discussion in the government or
the security Cabinet; Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Foreign Minister Gabi
Ashkenazi had not been informed and knew nothing about it; the Mossad had not
been consulted, either, nor the Shin Bet security agency or the Israel Defense
Forces (IDF).
Having been
thwarted in his plan to fly to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for a lightning
photo-op with its crown prince, Netanyahu drew the doomsday weapon in cavalier
fashion and ordered what amounts to a flagrant violation of the historic 1994
peace agreement with Jordan.
Netanyahu’s
action was prompted by anger at realizing he would be unable to fly to the UAE
for a two-hour election campaign airport meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Zayed Al Nahyan. Contrary to reports that emerged that day, it now transpires
that the Jordanians did not ban Netanyahu’s plane from traversing their air
space en route to Abu Dhabi. They adopted instead a cleverer ruse: simply
delaying the take-off of the executive jet that had been sent by the UAE to
pick up Netanyahu and his entourage. The plane had landed in Amman and was
awaiting permission to fly to Israel’s Ben-Gurion International Airport to pick
up its passengers. The aircraft crew reported being held up by technical
difficulties, but at some point Netanyahu realized the problems were political
and diplomatic rather than technical, and retaliated with the order to shut
down Israel’s air space to its neighbor.
Fortunately,
two hours after his order was passed down to the Civil Aviation Authority, word
came from the prime minister’s office rescinding it. The top brass of the Civil
Aviation and Airports Authority spent the two intervening hours dragging their
feet. They asked for the order in writing, which they got. They then asked for
clarifications, which they also received, by which time Netanyahu had come to
his senses. The question is whether next time he will also come to his senses
in time.
Closure of
the air space between Jerusalem and Amman would have severe and far-reaching
implications. It would violate international aviation treaties, flagrantly and
substantively violate the peace treaty that provides for free air passage over
each state, get Israel in trouble with the various international airlines that ply
that route, and more.
A senior
Israeli security official told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity that
Netanyahu's move “caused tremendous damage to relations with Jordan” on top of
the almost complete disruption of ties between the king and the prime minister.
The only senior Israelis who speak with the monarch occasionally are Defense
Minister Benny Gantz (Netanyahu’s political rival) and Mossad Chief Yossi
Cohen. The tight security coordination between the two sides continues
unabated, but is not guaranteed forever. “At this rate, the security
cooperation is also under threat,” the security source explained.
Netanyahu
of 2021 is a completely different man than the veteran, cautious leader who has
steered away from adventures and risks over his 12 years in office and is well
versed in the rules of the game. These days, he is toying with the peace with
Jordan, one of Israel’s most important strategic assets, like an infant playing
with a rag doll. He is devoting most of his energies to relations with second-
and third-tier states in the Gulf, where the big money is, while ignoring the
most sensitive interests of Israel’s national security.
Netanyahu
is apparently willing to pawn the pillars of Israel’s national security posture
in order to arrange a campaign trip for himself ahead of the March 23 elections
to Abu Dhabi airport. Even as of this writing, Netanyahu is trying frantically
to convince the UAE to allow him to fly to Abu Dhabi later this week, on March
18, “even for a half hour” meeting at the airport with the crown prince. He is
willing to sacrifice everything and everyone, including King Abdullah, for the
sake of his reelection. On March 16, Netanyahu’s people leaked information
according to which they were preparing an alternative flight path circumventing
Jordan should it try once again to thwart his flight to the UAE.
The
Jordanians understand what Netanyahu is doing. They have long been monitoring
anxiously the deterioration in relations with Israel and are very concerned
about possibly losing Netanyahu as a cautious and stable strategic ally.
Abdullah lacks significant leverage over Netanyahu. If he expects the Americans
to bail him out, he could be waiting for a long time. All that is left to do is
to pray that Israel somehow extricates itself as soon as possible from the deep
political crisis that has been paralyzing the country for over two years. As
things stand right now, such a scenario is unlikely.
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2021/03/israel-jordan-united-arab-emirates-benjamin-netanyahu-king.html
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Israel’s President In Europe, Campaigns Against
Iranian Threat, ICC Probe
By Rina Bassist
Mar 16,
2021
Israel’s
President Reuven Rivlin met today in Berlin with his German counterpart,
Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Speaking at a joint press conference, Rivlin thanked
Germany for its commitment to Israel’s security, calling on all European
countries to stand by Israel on the Iranian nuclear file, on the International
Criminal Court (ICC) probe against Israel, and on the issue of Israeli
civilians and bodies of IDF soldiers held by Hamas in Gaza.
“At this
time, the international community must stand firm and uncompromisingly against
Iran's nuclear intensification and its support for terrorist organizations that
threaten Israel and the region. We trust our friends in Europe to stand by us
in our fight against the misuse of the International Court of Justice in The
Hague, against our soldiers and citizens," said Rivlin.
He further
argued that while the balance of powers in the region is changing, following
the Abraham Accords, Iran keeps threatening its neighbors.
Berlin is
the first stop on a three-day tour by the president in Europe. Tomorrow, he
will fly to Austria, where he will meet with Austrian President Alexander Van
der Bellen. Both men will then participate in a memorial ceremony for Jews who
perished in the Holocaust. Rivlin will finish his tour on Thursday, meeting
French President Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee Palace in Paris.
This
presidential tour is exceptional on several levels. Rivlin was invited a while
ago by his German and Austrian counterparts to visit, yet the coronavirus
pandemic made things complicated. With the skies now opening, the decision by
International Criminal Court Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda at the beginning of
March to open a probe against Israel certainly pushed for the visit to take
place rapidly. Apparently, this was also the reason Paris was added to the
tour. Rivlin had traveled to France in January 2019 for an official state
visit, where President Macron received the president and his wife, Nechama (now
belated), with honors, for a festive 200-guest dinner. This second visit was
set up for a good reason.
The two
main themes of the visit — Iranian nukes and the ICC probe — explain the
participation of Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi on this
trip. Kochavi joined the president for the meeting this afternoon with
Steinmeier for an update on the regional security situation. Kochavi is also
expected to join the president for his meetings with the Austrian and French
heads of state. The only professional meeting scheduled for Kochavi during this
trip is with his German counterpart, Gen. Eberhard Zorn.
Still,
beyond briefing European leaders on the security challenges faced by Israel,
the mere presence of Kochavi on such a trip sends a clear message. Israel will
let no one, not even the ICC, probe Israeli officers.
President
Rivlin is considered very popular in Israel and has taken the cause of Israeli
Arabs and against discrimination on several occasions. He was also one of the
first Israeli officials to react to Bensouda’s decision, describing it as
scandalous and stating, “We will not accept claims against the exercise of our
right and our obligation to defend our citizens. The State of Israel is a
strong, Jewish and democratic state that knows how to defend itself and
investigate itself when necessary. We are proud of our soldiers, our sons and
daughters, the essence of our people, who stand guard for their country
generation after generation, a defensive wall against all those who seek our
harm. We will stand guard to ensure that they are not harmed because of this
decision.”
Indeed,
before embarking, the president came back to this issue, saying, “This
important diplomatic visit I am taking, together with the chief of staff, is
highly significant at this time. … It is important to ensure that the
international community is ready, determined and uncompromising, to oppose
Iran’s nuclear plans. … My agenda for this trip also includes the misuse of the
International Criminal Court against our soldiers and citizens.”
For Rivlin
to take on the ICC reflects his understanding that a great majority of Israelis
are united against such a probe. By bringing Kochavi along on this trip, Rivlin
tells the international community: Here is our top soldier, standing by my
side, on European soil, under my protection.
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2021/03/israel-germany-austria-france-reuven-rivlin-emmanuel-macron.html
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URL: https://newageislam.com/middle-east-press/middle-east-press-nato,-netanyahu,/d/124560
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