Middle East Press On Jewish Community in UAE, Caucuses Push Turkey and Israel Closer, and Maghreb Countries: New Age Islam's Selection, 12 December 2020
By
New Age Islam Edit Desk
12 December
2020
• Jewish Community Celebrates Hanukkah In UAE
By Michal Michelle Divon
• Shared Interests In Iran, Caucuses Push Turkey And
Israel Closer
By Metin Gurcan
• Maghreb Countries Must Take This Opportunity To
Unite
By Zaid M. Belbagi
• Tragedies Bring Palestinians Together, Politics
Keeps Them Apart
By Ray Hanania
• Turkey Chooses Pro-Erdogan Ambassador To Israel In
Bid To Normalize Ties
By Amberin Zaman
• Is Negotiating With Iran On Its Nuclear Program
Worth It?
By Reza Behrouz and Amin Sophiamehr
------
Jewish
Community Celebrates Hanukkah In UAE
By
Michal Michelle Divon
December
11, 2020
Supplied photo
Tonight is the second night of Hanukkah and will mark a historic moment
in Dubai
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Tonight is
the second night of Hanukkah and will mark a historic moment in Dubai
Hanukkah
celebration’s kicked off in Dubai with a candle-lighting ceremony at the Burj
Khalifa overlooking the Dubai fountain.
The sight
of a 3-meter-high menorah on the backdrop of the world’s tallest building is a
sight that has astonished Jewish community members around the world. The idea
of Jewish life being celebrated on Arab land is both emotional and joyous- and
above all, a reflection of the post Abraham Accords era that we live in.
Deputy
Mayor of Jerusalem Fleur Hassan-Nahoum who is spending Hannukah in Dubai says
it still feels like a dream.
“It seems
surreal to be celebrating the Festival of Lights in Dubai this year where last
year they were amongst the regional countries that Israelis were not allowed to
visit. It is indeed a miracle and hopefully the light of this warm peace will
shine on the entire region,” says Hassan-Nahoum.
Rabbi Elie
Abadie who recently moved to Dubai to serve as the Senior Rabbi of the Jewish
Council of the Emirates says the region is changing in front of our eyes.
“Hanukkah
is a holiday known to be filled with miracles and indeed almost in every
generation we see miracles happening on Hanukkah. This year it’s certainly a
miraculous year as we witness the entire Middle East and Gulf region becoming a
place of tolerance, coexistence, harmony and living together” says Abadie
The first
night of Hanukkah organised by the Chabad-Lubavitch Jewish Community Center,
one of Dubai’s two Jewish communities, hosted roughly 250 people just outside
of the Armani-Kaf kosher restaurant, with several smaller events held across
the city. The giant menorah will remain at the base of Burj Khalifa until the
end of Hanukkah, as an additional candle is lit every night throughout the
eight-day celebration.
The story
of Hanukkah is based on a miracle that happened some 2,500 years ago when the
Greek empire tried stopping Jews from practicing their religion. The idea that
an Arab country is not only enabling the Jewish community to practice their
religion, but is encouraging them to do so – is in many ways coming full
circle.
“We have
the government’s support, we’ve always had it – long before the Abraham
Accords,” says JCC Chief Rabbi Levi Duchman. According to him the UAE
government is in constant contact with the community and its leaders, making sure
all needs are met. “They make sure we are as comfortable as possible,” says
Duchman.
The miracle
of Hanukkah highlights the story of the Maccabees who defeated the Greek
emperor Antiochus and rededicate the second Temple where the miracle of oil
occurred. According to Judaism’s central text, the Talmud, the Macabees
discovered a jug of pure oil that was enough to light the lamp for one day, but
instead lasted eight days. This wonderous event inspired Jewish sages to
proclaim a yearly eight-day festival.
The Menorah
is an age-old symbol of religious tolerance and can be found at almost every
Jewish home. Within the Jewish community it is customary to gather with family
and friends on every night of Hanukkah and light the menorah, sing songs, eat
jelly donuts (known as sufganiyot), while children spin dreidels.
This year’s
Hanukkah celebration came with a surprise from the White House who announced
Morocco has agreed to normalise relations with Israel, the fourth country to do
so since the UAE signed the Abraham Accords agreement and paved the way for
normalisation with Israel.
Since the
signing of the Accords, the Jewish community in the UAE is said to have doubled
in size, and both Rabbi Levi Duchman and Rabbi Elie Abadie expect the community
to continue growing significantly in the coming years.
Tonight
(Friday) is the second night of Hanukkah and will mark a historic moment in
Dubai as three prominent rabbis are hosting candle-lighting Shabbat dinners;
Rabbi Elie Abadie of the JCE will lead a service with special guest Elan Carr,
US Envoy for Monitoring and Combatting Antisemitism and Deputy Ellie Cohanim,
along with other Jewish community leaders who flew in specially for the
occasion. Rabbi Marc Schneier, Chief Rabbi of the Hamptons Synagogue and Special
Advisor to the King of Bahrain will host a dinner on the Palm Jumeirah, and
Rabbi Levi Duchman will lead celebrations at the base of Burj Khalifa.
In Hannukah
the Jewish community in Israel says- ‘Nes Gadol Haya Po’ which translates to ‘a
great miracle happened here’, while the Jewish diaspora says ‘Nes Gadol Haya
Sham’, meaning ‘a great miracle happened there’. This year, the miracle is
still happening.
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/news/20201211/special-jewish-community-celebrates-hanukkah-in-uae
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Shared
Interests In Iran, Caucuses Push Turkey And Israel Closer
By
Metin Gurcan
Dec 11,
2020
This combination of pictures created on April 1, 2018, shows a file
photo taken on Nov. 19, 2017, of Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
(L), and a file photo taken on Dec. 15, 2017, of Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan. Photo by RONEN ZVULUN,OZAN
KOSE/AFP via Getty Images.
------
A series of
secret contacts between Turkey and Israel has raised anticipation that the two
countries are gearing up to mend fences, and while the process is not likely to
be smooth and easy, it holds the promise of geostrategic gains for both
countries.
The
behind-the-scenes dialogue was apparently initiated by Ankara about two months
ago with intelligence chief Hakan Fidan at the vanguard of the effort, as
Al-Monitor reported in late November. Following Fidan’s initial contacts with
Israel in October, Ankara sent other officials to Israel for exploratory talks
on a roadmap for normalization, sources in Ankara told Al-Monitor.
The Turkish
government seems to finally recognize that its belligerent foreign policy is
not sustainable, neither in terms of military and economic might nor of
institutional capacity. Government supporters may laud that policy as a sign of
Turkey’s growing influence and self-reliance, but it has clearly thrown Turkey
into a risky loneliness.
News broke
Dec. 9 that Ankara had silently selected a new ambassador to Israel. Ankara’s
choice for the critical post — Ufuk Ulutas, a pro-government think-tanker with
no diplomatic experience — triggered widespread criticism at home as yet
another confirmation of how political loyalty to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
has come to outweigh professionalism and merits in the state apparatus.
Moreover, it remains unclear whether Ulutas will actually go to Tel Aviv before
Israel appoints an ambassador to Ankara. Israel, some observers believe, may be
reluctant to rush things amid its newfound rapprochement with Gulf nations,
including the United Arab Emirates, which is at loggerheads with Turkey.
Still,
Ankara appears focused on positive outcomes. A retired Turkish diplomat who
requested anonymity told Al-Monitor, “Many in Ankara nowadays emphasize that
the return of Turkish and Israeli ambassadors, the possibility of signing a
maritime delimitation accord and constructing an Israeli [gas] pipeline to
Europe via Turkey, joint efforts for stability in Syria, and growing
Turkish-Israeli footholds in the Caucasus and the Black Sea and Caspian basins
will all be win-win outcomes for both countries.”
In other
words, realpolitik is pushing Ankara and Tel Aviv to move closer, even if
grudgingly.
According
to the retired diplomat, “What Turkey needs to do is to normalize ties with
Israel on the basis of national interests, while backing the general position
that Arab countries outline toward Israel.” Such a policy, he argued, will
allow Turkey to draw Israel away from Greece and the Greek Cypriots and perhaps
even win back the favors of the Jewish lobby in the United States over time.
The
incoming Joe Biden administration in Washington stands out as a major factor
compelling Turkey to reconsider its regional posture, for it is unlikely to be
as lenient on Ankara as outgoing President Donald Trump has been. “By tidying
up its regional ties, Ankara will lessen Biden’s trump cards against Turkey,”
the retired diplomat said. “For instance, Turkey’s new policy for a two-state
solution in Cyprus will be unacceptable to the United States, but Ankara could
limit the moves the United States might consider against Turkey by drawing
Israel and Egypt away from Greece,” he added.
Israeli
observers concur that the Biden factor is the main driver behind Ankara’s
U-turn on Israel as part of efforts to recalibrate its foreign policy. In
addition, there is wide room for bilateral cooperation in various fields,
including energy, trade and security. For Israel, they note, a true
normalization will require Turkey to sever its close bonds with Hamas and end
rhetoric delegitimizing Israel, beyond the mutual reinstating of ambassadors.
Yet another
important factor, perhaps less noticed, is pushing Turkey and Israel closer:
their converging interests in the Caucasus. Military assistance from both
Turkey and Israel was instrumental in Azerbaijan’s rout of Armenia in the
recent war over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. Nearly 60% of the
hi-tech systems and weaponry Azerbaijan used in the clashes have been supplied
by Israel as part of Baku’s efforts to modernize its army, including Heron
surveillance drones, Harop kamikaze drones, cluster munitions, rockets, Barak-8
air defense systems, LORA high-precision long-range ballistic missiles, and
command and control systems. Israeli military supplies continued via Turkey
amidst the war, leading Armenia to recall its ambassador from Israel.
Azerbaijan’s
proximity to Iran as well as its oil and gas riches make it an attractive
partner for Israel, unlike Armenia, which lacks natural resources and economic
might. Israel does not even have an embassy in Armenia, centering its Caucasus
policy on Azerbaijan, as does Turkey, whose close bonds with Baku are bolstered
by ethnic kinship.
Israel was
one of the first countries to recognize Azerbaijan’s independence after the
collapse of the Soviet Union. About 100,000 Azeri Jews have immigrated to
Israel since then, and some of them now hold high-level government positions.
Moscow and
Tehran will be closely watching how the Turkish-Israeli overtures advance,
especially if they grow into a military and defense cooperation. The prospect
of a growing trilateral partnership involving Azerbaijan would alarm
particularly Iran, which is already under US, Israeli and Sunni Arab pressure
over its military and economic influence in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.
In the
Black Sea region, Ukraine might be interested in a trilateral partnership with
Turkey and Israel, as it enjoys good ties with both countries and is eager to
strengthen its leverage against Russia.
Turkish-Israeli
normalization could lead also to energy cooperation and even a bilateral deal
on delimiting maritime zones in the Eastern Mediterranean, where Turkey is
largely isolated at present in simmering rows over exploration rights. Such an
eventuality would upend the geopolitical balance in the region, especially for
Greece and the Greek Cypriots.
Intelligence
sharing would be another gain for Turkey, especially in its fight against
Kurdish militants based across the border in Iraqi Kurdistan, a region where
Israel has a strong intelligence and economic presence. Turkey is already cooperating
with Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga forces affiliated with the Kurdistan Democratic
Party, the dominant political force in the region, and Israeli intelligence
support would further strengthen its hand against the militants.
In sum,
many actors stand to be irked by the Turkish-Israeli rapprochement in such a
complex and fragile environment. The path to normalization remains thorny also
because of Erdogan’s overly personalized approach to foreign policy and
Ankara’s erratic changes of heart, while in Israel mistrust of Ankara is
running deep and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu makes no secret of his
aversion to Erdogan.
Still,
realpolitik equilibriums are pushing Turkey and Israel to mend fences, and even
a meaningful bilateral dialogue on regional issues alone could alter the
geopolitics in the region.
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/12/turkey-israel-normalization-biden-victory-new-ambassador.html
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Maghreb
Countries Must Take This Opportunity To Unite
By
Zaid M. Belbagi
December
09, 2020
Aside from
the ties of heritage, religion and language that group the Maghreb countries,
another more important reality binds them: Insufficient growth to alleviate
youth unemployment. The Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), founded in 1989, was in 2017
described by King Mohammed VI of Morocco as effectively dead. The
once-ambitious organization, which hoped to unite Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia,
Libya and Mauritania, is today, if not dead, then at least in a state of
paralysis. However, given the devastating effects of the coronavirus pandemic
on regional economies, there is a distinct opportunity to grow what is, at
present, the least economically integrated region in the world.
Maghreb
unity is in a pitiful state. Trade among regional countries represents only 2 percent
of the total gross domestic product of the Maghreb region. It is cheaper for
Maghreb countries to import from China than it is from their neighbors.
Moroccan fruits are imported by Algeria via France, while Libyan oil is
imported to Morocco by boat in lieu of a more direct pipeline. Moroccan
investments have created 60,000 jobs in Nigeria, yet Tunisia’s youth suffer
from the same destitution that caused them to revolt in 2011. This bleak
picture is the result of the high tariffs imposed by the Maghreb countries on
one another’s products, as well as political issues that have fostered disunity
— constraints labeled as the “politics of trade protection in North Africa” by
Oxford University’s Adeel Malik, the foremost global expert on the matter. By some
estimates, the region loses about $530 billion annually as a consequence of
barriers to trade.
Divergent
foreign policy interests, especially between the two regional powers, Morocco
and Algeria, have undermined the stability of the entire Maghrebi sub-regional
system. The situation is, however, not without hope. While the Maghreb has not
been characterized by strong intra-regional collaboration, certain initiatives
that have emerged from the pandemic — particularly in the digital field — point
to a more interconnected future.
With
international trade severely affected by recent events, necessity and economic
logic would dictate that the long-mothballed AMU be reinvigorated to keep the
region’s economies afloat. The perils of the many millions employed throughout
the region’s informal economies were illustrated during lockdowns. Modest
growth is simply not an option for the Maghreb countries, which must create
employment or risk further instances of the social strife of the last decade.
Projects such as the Maghreb Startup Network and Maghtech have illustrated the
readiness of the region’s young people to supersede the political issues that
molded the attitudes of their predecessors and create opportunities to work
together.
In
addition, Morocco’s hosting of peace talks to bring about a resolution to
events in Libya is reminiscent of a more hopeful outlook that was prevalent in
historical movements that supported regional cooperation. The Etoile
Nord-Africaine of the 1920s and the Arab Maghreb Liberation Committee of the
late 1940s, chaired by the Moroccan Emir Abdelkrim El-Khattabi, were centered
on the idea of Maghreb unity. Such spirit must be used to meet today’s
challenges. The biggest trade partner of the region is the EU, so the Maghreb
countries would do well to act as a bloc when negotiating, as opposed to
accepting unfair agreements due to their diminutive economic size. American
diplomats have long highlighted the need for expanded markets for the Maghreb
countries to increase foreign direct investment; only structural reforms across
multiple jurisdictions will allow for megaprojects to transform the regional
patterns of trade.
Recent
events have also highlighted the need to address historical issues to allow the
creation of strong economic ties. Trouble in the Western Sahara has brought to
the fore Morocco’s commitment to develop its southernmost region and the role
of its neighbors in perpetuating conflicts that should have long been brought
to a close. The regional tinderbox ignited with the holding up of civilian
trucking from Morocco to Mauritania, highlighting the precariousness of the
trickle of regional trade. But it is only a matter of time before the calls for
economic growth via regional integration become louder than the war drums of
the military.
The mood of
resignation is increasingly palpable in the Maghreb, as well as rising
frustration with the hypocrisy of regional integration efforts. Given the
impact of free market economics in markedly improving living standards in
Morocco, while its brethren in resource-rich states struggle to source basic
foodstuffs, it is clear that improving regional trade is an urgent necessity.
There will be political concessions to be made and there will be a need to
mitigate the impact of regional trade at first, but the vision of Morocco’s
King Hassan II at the creation of the AMU “to turn the Arab Maghreb into one
country with one passport… one identity and a single currency” can certainly be
achieved with the territorial integrity of its members intact.
-----
Zaid M.
Belbagi is a political commentator, and an adviser to private clients between
London and the Gulf Cooperation Council.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1774881
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Tragedies
Bring Palestinians Together, Politics Keeps Them Apart
By
Ray Hanania
December
09, 2020
It seems
that every day marks the anniversary of some tragedy or suffering in
Palestinian history. Suffering has become the substance of being Palestinian —
it brings us together and defines us as a people.
I grew up
with a daily calendar of events from Palestine’s past that influenced my being.
Back in 1989, I even created a database called “Baladi,” which chronologically
documented the tragedies and events of suffering, but the task was daunting and
overwhelming because there was no end in sight to the entries I was recording.
There is
the Nov. 29 anniversary of the 1947 partition vote at the UN — an action that
codified the Nakba as an unmistakable scar on our lives. The worst anniversary,
though, is that of the 1982 massacres at Sabra and Shatila refugee camps in
Lebanon, which began on Sept. 16. During three days of slaughter, so many
civilians were butchered that, even today, no one actually knows exactly how
many men, women and children were murdered in cold blood.
But that is
not a unique characteristic among the Palestinians’ days of tragedy. On April
9, 1948, two terrorist organizations — whose leaders would later become prime
ministers of Israel — slaughtered the residents of a non-combatant farming
village called Deir Yassin. How many were slaughtered there is not fully known.
The initial reports were of 250, but later, after years of Israeli manipulation
of the Western news media, the number of victims was reduced to about 100 (as
if there is a moral difference between slaughtering 100 innocent people
compared to slaughtering 250).
June 5,
1967, was the day the Arabs stumbled into a war with Israel. Ridiculous bombast
from Egypt and collusion with Syria and Jordan gave Israel the excuse to launch
a “pre-emptive” attack that shattered Arab pride in just six days. On June 8,
Israeli forces attacked the USS Liberty while it was in international waters
about 25 nautical miles from Arish, Egypt. The ship was monitoring the
conflict, as Israel was invading Jordan and taking control of Arab East
Jerusalem. In the attack on the Liberty, Israel killed 34 American servicemen
and wounded 171 others. It is a miracle that the ship did not sink and kill
every one of the 358 Americans on board.
Every year
on Feb. 25, Palestinians mark the day in 1994 that an extremist with American
and Israeli citizenship walked into the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron, wearing an
Israeli military uniform and carrying an Israeli military machine gun, and
killed 29 Muslims who were knelt in prayer, wounding 125 others. The
perpetrator, Baruch Goldstein, who ironically was a doctor and had sworn to
save lives rather than take them, was subsequently beaten to death by
survivors.
Weeks
later, on April 6, Palestinians retaliated with one of the first major suicide
bombings, targeting a bus stop in Afula that was used by Israeli soldiers who
were reporting to reserve duty. Eight Israelis were killed and 55 were injured.
On
Wednesday, it was exactly 33 years since an Israeli military truck collided
with a civilian car carrying four Palestinians, who were returning to their
homes in the Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip, killing them all
and provoking the First Intifada. Riots subsequently spread throughout Gaza and
the West Bank and even Israel, too. They did not stop for more than four years,
raising fears of a civil war against Israel’s apartheid government and military
occupation. If the Intifada did one positive thing, it ignited a heightened
sense of concern between the rivals of Fatah and Hamas about who would take
control of the protests, resulting in Palestinian Liberation Organization
Chairman Yasser Arafat reaching out to discuss peace with Israel.
I was there
when Arafat and Israel Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin — a general well known for
ordering his soldiers to “break the bones” of Palestinian protesters — shook
hands on the White House lawn on Sept. 13, 1993. However, peace quickly died
when an Israeli assassinated Rabin during a “peace rally” on Nov. 4, 1995.
These
examples of anniversary dates of tragedy, suffering and of lost hope are the
only thing uniting Palestinians, bringing them together across their political
divides. They fuel anger, but even they have not been enough to fuel overall
unity. The Palestinians have been defined by division, maybe even a
sociopolitical form of partition that is far more destructive than the actual
partition of 1947.
Some might
look at this chronology as a way of reflecting the substance of the Palestinian
tragedy. But, to me, the real tragedy is how easily Palestinians attack their
own, gravitate to division and rivalry, and dilute their moral power.
Today,
tragedies define the Palestinian struggle, which is commemorated on the worst
of these dates. However, the real definition of the Palestinians’ tragedy is
their inability to come together with one powerful and singular voice. That
failure is marked every single day of every year.
------
Ray
Hanania is an award-winning former Chicago City Hall political reporter and
columnist. He can be reached on his personal website at www.Hanania.com.
Twitter: @RayHanania
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1774946
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Turkey
Chooses Pro-Erdogan Ambassador To Israel In Bid To Normalize Ties
By
Amberin Zaman
Dec 9, 2020
Turkey has
selected a new ambassador to Israel in line with efforts to normalize relations
with the Jewish state and score brownie points with the incoming administration
of US President-elect Joe Biden, several well placed sources have told
Al-Monitor. The new ambassador, Ufuk Ulutas, 40, is chairman for the Center for
Strategic Research at the Turkish Foreign Ministry and a political appointee
who studied Hebrew and Middle Eastern politics at the Hebrew University in
Jerusalem. He also worked as director of the SETA foundation, a pro-government
think tank, and written numerous papers on the Middle East policy and Jewish
history. Ulutas is also an expert on Iran. Sources familiar with Ulutas
described him as something of a wunderkind — “very polished,” “very clever” and
“very pro-Palestinian.”
There has
been no ambassador in either country since May 2018, when Turkey asked the
Israeli ambassador to “take leave” over escalating attacks against Palestinians
in Gaza and the Donald Trump administration’s decision to move the US Embassy
to Jerusalem. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has fashioned himself as a
standard bearer of Palestinian rights in the Muslim world, and once booming
relations between Turkey and Israel have steadily deteriorated since his Justice
and Development Party (AKP) rose to power in 2002.
For all of
Erdogan’s posturing, Turkey finds itself increasingly isolated and economically
squeezed. With US and EU sanctions looming, it’s been trying to patch up
relations with Washington and the European Union even as it continues to engage
in the same behavior — locking up critics, flirting with Russia and flexing its
muscles in the eastern Mediterranean — that draws Western ire.
One of the
ways of making nice with Washington, or so Ankara’s thinking goes, is to be
perceived as on good terms with Israel. And as Al-Monitor first reported on
Nov. 30, Turkey’s spy chief Hakan Fidan held secret talks with Israeli
officials and the idea of restoring ties to the ambassadorial level was
reportedly floated.
Ulutas’
nomination coincided with a routine rotation of Turkish ambassadors. His name
did not appear on the final list, seen by Al-Monitor, which includes new
appointees for Washington and the UN mission in New York.
Turkey
appointed Murat Mercan, a founding member of the AKP and currently ambassador
in Tokyo, to be US ambassador. Meanwhile deputy foreign minister Sedat Onal
will become UN ambassador in New York. Ulutas' appointment has yet to be
formally announced.
This marks
the first time, however, that Turkey would be sending a non-career diplomat to
Israel, a post that has been traditionally reserved for its best and brightest
envoys such as Namik Tan, a former ambassador to Washington. It’s also unclear
whether Israel will send an ambassador to Ankara anytime soon.
It’s highly
unlikely for several reasons. First, Israel is busy cultivating its new Gulf
allies, notably the United Arab Emirates, which is deeply hostile to Turkey.
Israel will not want to rock the boat until it has formally established
diplomatic ties with Abu Dhabi. Israel is also heading for new elections and
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has no interest in providing his opponents
with fodder by rewarding Erdogan.
Hostility
to Turkey used to be the reserve of liberals who pushed for recognition of the
1915 Armenian Genocide by Ottoman Turkish forces. But 18 years of AKP rule —
and Israel bashing — have radically shifted the national mood. Even the Israeli
Foreign Ministry, where Ankara used to be seen as a career-boosting post, has
turned sour on Turkey.
Finally,
Israel is infuriated by Erdogan’s continued support for Hamas and the Muslim
Brotherhood writ large. Israeli sources contend that Hamas has plotted attacks
on Israel from Istanbul and that Turkey has granted citizenship to at least 12
senior members of Palestinian group that Israel calls a terrorist organization.
Naming
Ulutas, an overtly pro-AKP figure no matter how gifted, rather than a top
career diplomat was probably not the wisest choice in such circumstances. It’s
not even clear whether he will actually go to Tel Aviv, unless Israel appoints
an ambassador to Ankara. But should he do so, Israelis will be watching closely
to see whether he meets with Raed Saleh, the head of the outlawed northern
branch of the Islamic movement in Israel, as did the previous Turkish
ambassador to Israel, Kemal Okem. Israeli officialdom was not amused.
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/12/turkey-name-ambassador-israel-ufuk-ulutas-fidan-erdogan.html
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Is
Negotiating With Iran On Its Nuclear Program Worth It?
By
Reza Behrouz And Amin Sophiamehr
09 December
2020
US
President-elect Joe Biden has stated his intention to return to the Iran
nuclear deal, if Tehran fully complies with the agreement, saying that if
Tehran complies, and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in
reinstated, sanctions will be lifted.
In 2015
when the deal was penned, the pact may have appeared on the surface as a
diplomatic triumph, but with 2021 on the horizon, it lacks merit and its
purpose is unclear.
Proponents
of the JCPOA claim that an agreement with Iran was only possible because the
signing nations focused on a common objective: prolong Iran’s nuclear breakout
time. It is a single-issue platform, designed as the initial step for a trust-building
process, with potential for future talks on other critical matters, including
the regime’s ballistic missiles program and destabilizing activities in the
region.
But Iran
had its own set of expectations with respect to the deal. The regime viewed the
JCPOA as a tactical distraction from its battles on other fronts, and their
behavior became more bellicose in the Middle East after it was signed. For the
regime's leaders, the deal was not the initial step, but the final frontier.
Immediately after signing the JCPOA, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
asserted that it would be the last time Islamic Republic officials would meet
with the Americans. The nuclear issue was the only matter that Iranian regime
officials would engage on with the West.
Indeed, the
regime became more belligerent following the accord. Soon after the JCPOA was
signed, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) tested a ballistic missile
bearing an inscription in Hebrew that read “Israel must be obliterated.” The
regime also increased financial and arms support for its terror proxies in the
Middle East.
Given its
inherent flaws, what is Biden’s rationale for returning to the deal?
Biden
believes nuclear weapons, in the hands of a hostile regime such as Iran, pose a
direct national security threat to the US and its allies in the region,
especially Israel. If he is truly concerned about Israel’s security and wants
to reach an agreement with Iran to protect Israel from a possible nuclear
attack, it is important to at least hear what the Israelis think of this
strategy.
For all the
latest headlines follow our Google News channel online or via the app.
Israeli
politicians have mixed views regarding the validity and practicality of a
nuclear accord with Iran, though they all seemingly agree that the regime must
not possess nuclear weapons. However, the main Israeli concern is perhaps
Iran’s precision missile program, which Israel perceives as a more immediate
threat than a nuclear bomb. This concern is shared by most Arab US allies.
Therefore,
failing to address Iran’s missile program alongside – or even before nuclear
talks – would constitute a diplomatic failure. Excluding Israel and Arab allies
from the negotiation proceedings also constitutes such a failure.
The
Europeans have fervently pushed for the US to return to the deal, and Biden has
said he will work with European allies toward a multilateral accord that
prevents or delays the regime’s access to a nuclear bomb. It is unclear why the
Europeans are so eagerly pushing for a return to the JCPOA. Again, the
“protection of allies” logic, especially regarding Israel, is abortive. The
Europeans are also not listening to the Israelis or Arab states.
France, for
instance, is concerned that nuclear weapons will fall into the hands of Iran’s
proxies, including Hezbollah. Yet the French government hesitates to designate
these factions as terrorist organizations, even though the US has designated
them as such years ago, and increasingly European countries are following suit.
Furthermore,
if the Europeans fear nuclear aggression by Iran on their continent, they
should be equally concerned about the regime’s arsenal of long-range,
precision, and nuclear-capable missiles, which can reach Europe and the
continental US. The regime’s possession of a nuclear bomb is meaningless if it
lacks the means and the apparatus to launch one.
Then there
are China and Russia, which are both JCPOA signatories. Primarily, they would
lose their strategic superiority over the regime if it becomes nuclear. But it
is curious why these two countries are members of the campaign against Iran’s
nuclear proliferation when neither is a target of the regime. They are both
eager to sell arms to the regime, recognize Hezbollah as a legitimate political
organization, and have close relations with Iran.
Human
rights need to be a priority
Iran’s
record with human rights abuses seem to never be on the agenda for negotiation.
Biden is likely to try to tackle the nuclear issue immediately upon assuming
office, and then he will most likely build on that agreement, working toward
further negotiations with Iran on various other issues, including human rights.
This is congruent to the Obama administration policy of “kicking the can down
the road.”
Obama and
Biden did not include human rights in the 2015 JCPOA platform, but it is not
too late for Biden to attend to this crucial matter. However, renewal of the
JCPOA is not the correct pathway. As Khamenei stated, the regime is unlikely to
negotiate on other issues. From another angle, the regime’s Foreign Minister
Mohammad Javad Zarif, who claims to be a “human rights professor,” has denied
human rights violations in Iran. If Iran’s top diplomat denies the existence of
a problem, how could negotiations or diplomacy be remotely effective in resolving
it?
Why
negotiate?
With JCPOA
signatories ignoring critical issues, and where the regime considers them
nonnegotiable, it is unclear what exactly Biden plans to accomplish after
resuscitating the near-defunct nuclear deal.
Considering
all arguments, the real question is why negotiate with Iran on the nuclear
issue at all?
Any
agreement reached between Iran and the Biden administration will be – like the
JCPOA – fragmented unless ratified by the Senate as a treaty. It will be very
difficult for Biden to convince two-thirds of the Senate that the JCPOA as a
treaty would have any meaningful impact on US or Middle East security.
Iran would
be re-entering negotiations from a position of utter weakness. By touting its
nuclear program as leverage, the regime has effectively placed all its eggs in
one basket. Zarif and his team of lobbyists in the US claim Iran’s nuclear
program is peaceful, while in the same breath, they insist on “reaching a
deal.” Regime apologists in Europe and the US also claim Iran abandoned its
nuclear weapons program nearly two decades ago. If the assertions that the
regime has ceased the military component of its nuclear program, and that the
entire project is for peaceful purposes are true, why does Zarif threaten to
accelerate it if US sanctions are not lifted?
All this
perhaps indicates that Iran’s nuclear program might be less significant than
portrayed, and it is being inflated to distract the international community
from more vital issues such as the regime’s ballistic missile program, support
for proxy groups from Iraq to Lebanon, and human rights violations.
The regime
leveraged the same strategy going into negotiations: to depict the nuclear
issue so critical that other important matters pertaining to the regime’s
criminal conduct are kept off the table. It is the only leverage Iran has, and
Biden should recognize its inadequacies. The US should not be deceived by the
regime’s smoke screen. Biden should resist being rushed into signing an accord
that is of little benefit to the US and doomed to fall apart in short order.
A joint
comprehensive plan of action should be exactly that – comprehensive.
___
Reza
Behrouz is an Iranian-American physician based in Texas, USA, and a member of
the advisory board for Iranian Americans for Liberty.
Amin
Sophiamehr is an Iranian-American scholar in political philosophy at Indiana
University.
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2020/12/09/Iran-nuclear-deal-Is-negotiating-with-Iran-on-its-nuclear-program-worth-it-
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