Middle East Press On Israeli-Saudi Relations, Turkish-Saudi Relations and Rohingya: New Age Islam's Selection, 9 December 2020
By
New Age Islam Edit Desk
9 December 2020
• A
New Page in Israeli-Saudi Relations? Not So Fast
By
Ben Caspit
•
Saudi Arabia: Time to Face the Music
By
Marwan Bishara
• Are
There Signs Of Thaw In Turkish-Saudi Relations?
By
Pinar Tremblay
• If
Rohingya Must Be Moved, Bangladesh Has To Allay Fears
By
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim
•
OPEC Rises Above Global Oil Media Speculation
By
Faisal Faeq
------
A New
Page In Israeli-Saudi Relations? Not So Fast
By
Ben Caspit
Dec 8, 2020
What's
going on between Israel and Saudi Arabia? The recent ups and downs in relations
between these two regional powers are even more dizzying and surprising than
President Donald Trump’s mood swings. On Oct. 6, Prince Bandar bin Sultan,
Saudi Arabia’s veteran former ambassador to the United States, issued an
unusual broadside against the Palestinians, perceived in Jerusalem as a further
step in Riyadh’s gradual rapprochement with Israel.
“What I
heard from Palestinian leadership in recent days was truly painful to hear,”
Bandar told Saudi Al-Arabiya TV, referring to the Palestinian condemnation of
Israel’s normalization agreements with the Emirates and Bahrain. “Their
transgression against the Gulf states' leadership with this reprehensible
discourse is entirely unacceptable. … It is not surprising to see how quick
these leaders are to use terms like 'treason,' 'betrayal' and 'backstabbing,'
because these are their ways in dealing with each other.” In the lengthy
interview, as transcribed by Al-Arabiya, the royal went on to say that the
Palestinian cause has been “robbed… both by Israel and Palestinian leaders
equally. … The Palestinian cause is a just cause, but its advocates are
failures. … Successive Palestinian leaders … always bet on the losing side, and
that comes at a price.”
Israeli
officials rubbed their hands in glee. Even Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
could not have phrased it better. However, exactly two months later, another
influential Saudi royal dumped ice water on the winds of normalization blowing
between Jerusalem and Riyadh. In a Dec. 5 CNN interview, the former longtime
head of Saudi intelligence, Prince Turki al-Faisal, denied widespread reports
of Netanyahu’s secret meeting last month with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
"The Saudi foreign minister … completely denied the allegations. … I
believe that the kingdom's credibility is highly estimated more than the
allegations made by someone like Netanyahu, who is accused in his country of
lying to the Israeli people, so how can they believe a liar?”
Asked about
normalization with Israel, he said, "There is no preparation of such kind.
… The Palestinian cause is the kingdom's priority and the kingdom is committed
to the Arab Peace Initiative."
Even as
stunned officials in Jerusalem were trying to understand what had prompted the
fiery attack, Faisal launched another broadside at Israel during the Dec. 6
Manama Dialogue regional security conference. The conference was also attended
online by Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi and by former Israeli Foreign
Ministry Director General Dore Gold, a Netanyahu associate.
Addressing
the event, Faisal rejected Israel’s contention that it protects human rights
and is the only democracy in the Middle East. Israel, he said, “humbly depicts
itself as a small, existentially threatened country, surrounded by bloodthirsty
killers who want to eradicate her from existence” when, in fact, it has
“incarcerated [Palestinians] in concentration camps under the flimsiest of
security accusations — young and old, women and men, who are rotting there
without recourse to justice. They are demolishing homes as they wish and they
assassinate whomever they want.” He called Israel “the last of the Western
colonizing powers of the Middle East."
After Gold
spoke, Faisal addressed him directly. He said that Gold was the last person who
could talk about past attitudes given his 2003 book “Hatred’s Kingdom” on Saudi
sponsorship of terrorism, accusing Gold of having “denigrated the king and used
the vilest descriptions.”
“We are
witnessing an internal struggle within the kingdom,” a senior Israeli source
deeply involved in contacts between the sides told Al-Monitor on condition of
anonymity. “There’s the MBS [Prince Mohammed] camp that is flirting with the
idea of normalization with Israel and conducting close ties with Netanyahu and
his people. Bandar bin Sultan is part of this group. On the other side is the
king himself and the veteran establishment, the old guard, which includes
radical clerics who regard normalization with Israel as a necessary evil but
one whose time has not come.”
According
to the source, these two camps were evenly matched until recently, allowing
Mohammed room to maneuver vis-a-vis Israel. “Make no mistake, the Bahrainis
would not have gone ahead with Israel without coordinating with Mohammed bin
Salman,” the source said. “But then Netanyahu flew to Saudi Arabia.”
According
to several Israeli sources, the leaked reports of Netanyahu’s Nov. 22 meeting
in Saudi Arabia with Mohammed in the presence of US Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo prompted fury in Riyadh, which had until then been willing to continue
with its double game vis-a-vis Israel. The leak forced Mohammed to take a few
steps back, making room for the radicals to move forward. The 2002 Arab Peace
Initiative, initially known as the Saudi Peace Initiative, was restored to
center stage, the long-dormant Palestinian issue was resuscitated, and the
Saudis are careful to deny the meeting with Netanyahu in order to intensify his
humiliation.
Netanyahu’s
people have also abandoned their initial celebrations of the historic meeting
in Saudi Arabia. When asked about it this week in an interview with Kan Radio,
Israel’s public broadcaster, Gold played dumb and said he was not familiar with
such an event.
Israeli
officials are aware of the heavy price Israel is paying for Netanyahu’s
reckless leak of the clandestine meeting, which appears to set aside the
national interest in the service of his personal one. Nonetheless, the pressure
gauge in Jerusalem is not registering unusual activity. “The basic conditions
remain the same,” a Netanyahu confidant told Al-Monitor on condition of
anonymity. “The Saudis are the same Saudis, the Iranians are the same Iranians
and Israel is still the preferred power in the Middle East. They [the Saudis]
apparently prefer to play it cool and wait for [President-elect Joe] Biden.
That is understandable.”
Israel is
busy, meanwhile, trying to intensify pressure on the outgoing Trump
administration in order to solidify its gains. Sudan has threatened to revoke
its normalization move with Israel unless the United States removes it from the
list of states sponsoring terrorism, while pro-Israel senators are demanding
congressional approval of the US sale of F-35 fighters to the Emirates in order
to ascertain that the deal does not undermine Israel’s military edge in the
region. Even Netanyahu’s man in Washington, Israeli Ambassador Ron Dermer, was
forced to step up and declare Dec. 7 that Israel has no problem with the
Stealth deal. Israel’s overriding concern is a possible US return to the
nuclear agreement with Iran by the Biden administration.
All sides
are thus busy preparing for the new US administration. The deck will soon be
reshuffled, but meanwhile not much is known about Biden’s plans for the region.
As the Jan. 20 inauguration draws nearer, the pressure level in many Middle
Eastern capitals will likely rise. Netanyahu’s Golden Age in Washington is
about to expire. Even if Biden turns out to differ from President Barack Obama
in terms of Middle East policy, no one doubts that he will not be Trump.
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/12/israel-saudi-arabia-united-states-benjamin-netanyahu-biden.html
------
Saudi
Arabia: Time to Face the Music
By
Marwan Bishara
8 Dec 2020
Participants
at a regional security conference in Manama over the weekend must have been
surprised to see former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki Al-Faisal shoot
in all directions, considering that no Saudi is allowed to shoot from the hip
nowadays – not even a prince.
Indeed,
some may have been quite indignant when the seasoned former ambassador to the
United Kingdom and the United States, lectured neighbouring Oman on foreign
interference and dubbed Israel a “Western colonising” power that incarcerates
Palestinians in concentration camps.
Regardless
of whether Prince Turki was wrong on Oman or right on Israel, the tone and
timing of his rebuke provoked the foreign ministers of Oman and Israel who were
in attendance and invoked some question and exclamation marks about the
coherence and consistency of Saudi foreign policy.
After all,
only a week earlier, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) hosted
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu along with US Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo in the new Red Sea coastal city of Neom.
And it was
only a month before that the other former Saudi intelligence chief and former
ambassador to the United States, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, slammed the
Palestinian leadership for condemning Gulf states which decided to normalise
ties with Israel!
To add to
the confusion, both princes and their children are or remain privileged royalty
when many of their cousins have fallen from grace. Big time.
If, as
reported, Prince Turki is indeed close to King Salman and echoes his
sentiments, does it mean – as some claim – that the monarch is in disagreement
with his crown prince?
Or, are the
father and son in agreement, but take on different roles, with the king and his
entourage expressing the official policy, and the crown prince and his clique
working from behind the scenes?
I find the
latter more plausible.
That is
because it is difficult to believe the king and his crown prince are actually
in disagreement about anything major, and that they deliberately and openly
display their discord for their friends and foes to see.
If
anything, the past six testing years made their relationship stronger in the
face of mounting challenges, like the fiascos of the war in Yemen, the Gulf
crisis, the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, and many others.
As the
Beirut Bureau Chief for the New York Times, Ben Hubbard, chronicles in his
book, MBS: The Rise to Power of Mohammed bin Salman, the king has been his
son’s greatest fan and supporter from the start, enabling him to become the de
facto ruler of the kingdom. It helped that MBS, on his mother’s advice,
shadowed his father since he was 16 years old, especially after the unexpected
deaths of two of his older half-brothers.
My guess is
that both men were angered by Netanyahu for leaking the news of his secret trip
to Saudi Arabia in his last-ditch effort to force the kingdom to come out about
their warming relations and to thus improve his standing at home and abroad.
Netanyahu’s
smug phoniness must have been especially irritating and embarrassing to the
monarchy, which reportedly moved to cancel an upcoming secret visit by the
Israeli intelligence chief.
Make no
mistake, Saudi Arabia remains keen on improving security ties with Israel to
contain Iran, but without openly normalising relations, as such a move could
cause a backlash within the kingdom and part of the Islamic world.
Unlike its
smaller neighbours, the kingdom has much to lose from openly betraying the
Palestinian cause.
With
President Donald Trump’s defeat in the US elections, Riyadh lost its staunchest
ally at the White House. The monarchy is now obliged to tread carefully, walk
back some of its mistakes and avoid any new risky moves before a less friendly
administration takes over next month.
Biden has
already made it clear that he will reverse much of Trump’s appeasement of Saudi
Arabia and his hostile policies towards Iran.
This
explains Riyadh’s recent overtures toward Turkey, after more than two years of
hostility, and its keener attempts at resolving the Gulf crisis with Qatar,
which may lead to relations being restored at the GCC summit later this month.
The same
goes for alleged attempts at ending the disastrous war in Yemen. Reports about
Riyadh trying to expedite a settlement of the war, that includes a “joint
declaration” by the two warring Yemeni parties will, if serious, prove a step
in the right direction.
And the
same applies to Saudi Arabia’s recent engagement with Iraq. After years of
snubbing Baghdad, Riyadh sent a top-level delegation to the Iraqi capital
earlier this week. And last month, Riyadh opened the Arar border crossing for
trade with Iraq for the first time in 30 years.
By taking
these and other steps, Saudi Arabia seems keen to show willingness and ability
to act independently and without foreign interference, when in reality, it is
eager to move quickly to preempt and placate potential future American
pressure.
After
shrewdly getting away with almost everything he wanted from the Trump
administration, thanks in no small part to the gullibility of its emissary,
Jared Kushner, MBS must now face the new reality, both in Washington and the
region.
The
honeymoon is over. It is time to face the music and deal with the consequences.
----
Bishara
was previously a professor of International Relations at the American
University of Paris. An author who writes extensively on global politics, he is
widely regarded as a leading authority on the Middle East and international
affairs.
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2020/12/8/saudi-arabia-time-to-face-the-music/
-----
Are
There Signs Of Thaw In Turkish-Saudi Relations?
By
Pinar Tremblay
Dec 8, 2020
As the
unofficial Saudi-led boycott of Turkish goods in multiple Arab states is
hurting the Turkish sphere of influence, King Salman bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud and
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had a phone conversation on Nov 20. A
day later, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan told Reuters that
the kingdom's relations with Turkey are "good and amicable."
Indeed,
Saudi Arabia sent humanitarian aid following the earthquake in Izmir in early
November. When asked why this aid was not covered in Turkish media, a senior
Turkish diplomat speaking to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity said, “The aid
offered came six days after the earthquake, and right around the time Biden was
elected [in the United States]. We did not think much of it.”
Another
senior bureaucrat told Al-Monitor, “Erdogan called Bahraini King Hamad bin Isa
Al Khalifa Nov. 12 to offer his condolences for the late Bahraini prime
minister, but the real reason was to send a message to Riyadh that we are ready
to talk.” These friendly gestures and phone calls right before the G-20 meeting
in Saudi Arabia was interpreted as a first step for thawing relations.
The growing
rivalry with Saudi-led Arab states and its political and economic implications
are rarely published in Turkish prime-time news. Therefore, discussions of a
possible thaw in relations is not a public issue for Erdogan. However, it seems
Ankara was pleased to see a significant decrease in anti-Turkey social media
posts. “We observed a drastic fall in the pace of media campaigns directed
against Turkey since the Saudi king’s phone call. The ruling family and
well-known figures on Twitter affiliated with Riyadh have curtailed their
attacks,” a prominent pro-Justice and Development Party media observer told
Al-Monitor.
Kristian
Coates Ulrichsen, a fellow for the Middle East at Rice University's Baker
Institute, told Al-Monitor, “My view is that the relationship with Turkey is
one issue the Saudi leadership feels that it can act to improve ahead of the
Biden administration taking office in January — in part to lessen the potential
isolation of the kingdom should Saudi fears about a hostile incoming White House be realized.”
The timing
of attempts to thaw relations can be attributed to the Biden presidency.
Despite bitter rivalry among Riyadh and Ankara, both countries enjoyed
significant benefits from the Trump administration. In the last four years,
Saudi Arabia and Turkey have been engaged in a competition for the leadership
of the region. The secretary-general of the Arab League has recently denounced
Turkish interventions in the region as reckless and raised a red flag for the
Biden administration about Ankara as a source of instability in the region.
The Trump
administration's harsh sanctions have helped contain Iranian expansion in the
region. With Trump out of the picture, Iran can only improve its economic and
political standing and its role will gain more prominence. This possibility
will increase Saudi vulnerabilities significantly.
Ankara also
sees that the 2017 Saudi-led boycott against its staunch ally Qatar has utterly
failed. Efforts to end the diplomatic rift among Gulf Cooperation Council
countries have been intensified. Ankara’s goal has been to isolate the United
Arab Emirates and to make amends with Saudi Arabia and other countries in the
region. “The breakdown in relations with Turkey seems to have been more of an
issue for the UAE than for Saudi Arabia, the close Riyadh-Abu Dhabi
relationship notwithstanding. So Saudi-Turkey relations may have been
identified as one issue that can be addressed fairly quickly and relatively
painlessly from Riyadh's point of view,” Ulrichsen said.
Turkey may
have one leverage over Riyadh. That is the 2018 murder case of journalist Jamal
Khashoggi. After seeing Trump’s unwillingness to confront Saudi officials,
particularly Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Erdogan has softened his
rhetoric about the matter. However, “just as a win-win scenario for us, we can
bring it back up now that Biden is in charge. It will be a good test for the
incoming administration’s democratic credentials as well as a good bargaining
chip against Riyadh,” commented a senior Turkish bureaucrat.
As the
Turkish economy sags, Erdogan is eager to contain the Saudi sphere of influence
in the region to ensure the enmity does not cause further damage to Turkish
interests. The news that Turkey’s competition authority has approved investment
rights to Saudi Aramco raised eyebrows among the Turkish opposition in late
November. The economic concerns and changing global politics may not be
sufficient to reset the relations between Riyadh and Ankara. There are two main
impediments.
Erdogan,
who considers his Gulf rival to be Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Mohammed bin Zayed
Al Nahyan, rather than Crown Prince Mohammed, is hoping to divide the Gulf
leaders on relations with Turkey. This is more complicated than it sounds. Ankara
is determined to fight for the interests of the Muslim Brotherhood in the
region. This means providing refuge for exiled members of the movement, but
also coordinating mosques and networks all around the region and even in
Europe.
Saudi
Arabia has shown no indication that it will soften its tone or battles against
the movement. Indeed, just on Nov. 11, the Council of Senior Scholars in Saudi
Arabia published an announcement criticizing the "disruptive"
behavior of the movement and calling it a terrorist organization. In the days
to follow, Emirati Fatwa Council declared the outlawed group a terrorist
organization.
The Muslim
Brotherhood is a red line for both Saudi Arabia and Turkey. It has been a major
obstacle to repair relations with Cairo. Although Ankara’s suits frequently
talk about compartmentalization of foreign affairs, they have an easier time
bargaining about the organization with Tel Aviv than Cairo. Ankara may
understand the Israeli dislike of the Muslim Brotherhood, but when it comes to
other Muslim majority countries, they cannot tolerate an anti-Brotherhood
mindset.
Assuming
either Riyadh or Ankara will alter their stand concerning the Muslim
Brotherhood is arduous. And the next obstacle to returning to a 2015 level of
friendship between the two is how widespread the impact of this tug-of-war has
become. The Saudi-led coalition clashes with Turkey and Qatar not only in the
Gulf, but also in the Maghreb and Europe. Even the issue of Kashmir is prone to
becoming another battleground for rivalry of influence among these two blocs.
Ending all these individual areas of conflict would require significant
diplomatic rigor, and neither side seems interested.
Ankara is
back on its heels with economic challenges. However, it believes that
perseverance will pay off in a few years. It is convinced that Saudi Arabia has
started to see its alliance with the UAE is more costly now that Iran is likely
to gain more power. Ankara believes Saudi Arabia needs its support more now
than ever. In its most pragmatic and opportunistic manner, Erdogan is likely to
watch Riyadh scale down its antagonism on several fronts before committing to a
process of rapprochement.
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/12/turkey-gulf-saudi-arabia-it-is-time-for-turkish-saudi-reset.html
-----
If
Rohingya Must Be Moved, Bangladesh Has To Allay Fears
By
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim
December
08, 2020
The
government of Bangladesh has begun moving thousands of Rohingya refugees from
Cox’s Bazar, near the border with Myanmar, to Bhasan Char, a silt island in the
Bay of Bengal. This is deeply regrettable.
We must
understand why the government of Bangladesh feels it needs to do this. Cox’s
Bazar is struggling under the weight of more than 1 million refugees and the
humanitarian infrastructure in the area is hopelessly overwhelmed, even after
three years of development. Between those concerns, and extra concerns about
the geological stability of the site (the government refers to a high risk of
landslides), it does seem unlikely that the area around Cox’s Bazar can sustain
1 million-plus people on a long-term basis.
And now the
government of Bangladesh is expecting that it will need to manage the Rohingya
refugee situation on a long-term basis. For three years, it chose to hope
against hope that some sort of settlement could be struck with Myanmar, whereby
the Rohingya could return to their native lands relatively soon. But, in recent
months, Dhaka finally seems to have acknowledged the reality that Myanmar has
not been negotiating in good faith. This change in stance was signaled last
month, when Bangladesh donated to the legal effort against Myanmar on behalf of
the Rohingya, which is being led by The Gambia at the International Court of
Justice.
Moreover,
Bangladesh has been looking to ease the pressure on Cox’s Bazar for some time
and has invested more than $300 million into building facilities on Bhasan Char
that are of a far higher quality than anything that can be found in Cox’s
Bazar. The notion that the Rohingya will need to be settled in other areas is
not problematic in and of itself.
However,
what has been problematic from the very beginning has been the choice of Bhasan
Char. The island is very isolated, some 20 miles from the mainland. It is
unsuitable for agriculture overall, and can scarcely sustain more than 300,000
in the most extreme scenario. This raises two huge concerns: Firstly, it means
that the Rohingya refugee community will be split up, which may deal a deadly
blow to their identity as a people; and, secondly, those who end up living on
the island will likely remain permanently economically dependent on Bangladesh
and/or international aid for food and other essentials.
But
Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. The
government struggled to find more suitable locations and, unfortunately but
somewhat understandably, did not want to take the political risks involved in
settling large numbers of foreign aid-dependent Rohingya refugees among native
Bangladeshis, who themselves are among the poorest and most vulnerable people
in the world. The choice to keep the refugee population separate is deeply sad,
but it may well be the correct one if, in the long term, it protects the
Rohingya from a backlash from local people who think they are crowded out by an
external group with more international support than they themselves receive.
There are
no good choices here. But, now that the relocations have begun, Bangladesh
needs to do certain things to allay the fears of the Rohingya and of the
international community about the possible consequences. It must ensure that
international nongovernmental organizations and UN humanitarian agencies have
full access to the island, and that those living there are provided with full
education, health, and other facilities. Moreover, constant and reliable
contact and movement of people between the island and Cox’s Bazar must be
provided, so that the two communities are not permanently separated.
----
Dr.
Azeem Ibrahim is a director at the Center for Global Policy in Washington, DC.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1774381
-----
OPEC
Rises Above Global Oil Media Speculation
By
Faisal Faeq
December
09, 2020
Despite
media rumors to the contrary, last week’s OPEC+ meeting ended with full
consensus showing the world that the organization continues to be defined more
by shared goals than differences.
In advance
of the gathering, some global oil media outlets had peddled negative
speculation about the possible outcome, but OPEC and OPEC+ producers came out
victorious.
Member states
agreed to gradually increase production based on a monthly review and
monitoring of market conditions and recovery in demand for oil.
The
unanimous consensus from the 23 producers somewhat deviated from the strategy
agreed to in April, but the group remained consistent in its commitment to
adjust output in line with changing market needs.
Media
claims of a dispute between OPEC members which was reportedly threatening to
destroy the historic accord in the midst of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19)
pandemic and resulting fragile global economic situation, came to nothing.
The fears
spread by the oil media only served to stir up more uncertainty in an already
nervous sector. A number alleged that some energy officials had intended to
withdraw from OPEC in the event of an output cuts extension.
There were
suggestions that some of the media speculation may have been driven by trading
companies hoping to generate revenues on futures markets by sowing unrest.
The OPEC+
output cuts agreement reached in April was a medium-term strategy aimed at
balancing global oil markets and stabilizing the world economy and was a
triumph of diplomacy in securing the compliance of oil producers all with
different circumstances and agendas.
Saudi
Energy Minister Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman said: “If that (holding monthly
meetings) may cause more (price) fluctuations, I would not have agreed to such
a decision.
“The market
understands that we do not gamble with decisions that extend for three months.
On the contrary, there is satisfaction in the markets that we control what the
market needs.”
------
Faisal
Faeq is an energy and oil marketing adviser. He was formerly with OPEC and
Saudi Aramco.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1774551
-----
URL: https://newageislam.com/middle-east-press/middle-east-press-israeli-saudi/d/123701
New Age Islam, Islam Online, Islamic Website, African Muslim News, Arab World News, South Asia News, Indian Muslim News, World Muslim News, Women in Islam, Islamic Feminism, Arab Women, Women In Arab, Islamophobia in America, Muslim Women in West, Islam Women and Feminism