Middle East Press On Khamenei, Turkey, Iran, Netanyahu, US, Lebanon: New Age Islam's Selection, 23 October 2024
New Age Islam Edit Desk
23 October 2024
Will Israel Assassinate Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei?
Reviving Turkish-Iraqi Ties with The Development Road
Netanyahu Must Put His Ministers in Order to Make Successful 'Day After' Plan
Those Elevated and Those Ruined by October 7
Bibi Was Right: How Israel’s Recent Military Successes Boost His Leadership
US Charges Iranian Official in Alleged Plot to Kill Activist In New York
Lebanon's Option: Resistance for Self-Defence
Australia Relies On Israeli Weapons, Which Means It Now Relies On Genocide
Biden’s Good Intentions On Gaza Ignored by Israel
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Will Israel Assassinate Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei?
By Salem Alketbi
OCTOBER 23, 2024
The image of Israeli assassination targets recently shown on Israel’s Channel 14 and picked up by the BBC featured several figures allegedly wanted by Israel but did not include the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Those listed included Iraqi Shi’ite cleric Ali Al Sistani, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar (killed by the IDF last week), Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem, Yemeni Houthi leader Abdul-Malik Al Houthi, and Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani.
However, recent strikes and intelligence breaches targeting Iranian security institutions and their affiliated proxies, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon, make the scenario of assassinating Khamenei highly plausible.
This possibility is compelling Iranian security agencies to exercise extreme caution. The situation is especially critical given the collapse of the tacitly agreed-upon rules of engagement and conflict boundaries between Iran and Israel.
Several factors place Khamenei within the scope of potential Israeli targets, even if his name was absent from the publicized “assassination list.”
Indeed, this very omission could be considered an indicator of purposeful misdirection and deception. Such tactics are highly likely in these circumstances.
A list that included Sistani
FIRST, THE list was not limited to military leaders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iranian proxies. It also included Sistani, a Shi’ite religious authority of stature.
This is noteworthy because Sistani does not carry the same weight as Khamenei in managing the conflict with Israel.
He also lacks the authority to direct Iran-aligned proxies to participate in the so-called “axis of resistance.” While Sistani’s political and ideological views are akin to those of Khamenei, he lacks authority over the militant Iraqi Shi’ite organizations.
These groups receive orders directly from the IRGC. It can be said that Sistani’s relationship with these groups is limited to the spiritual aspect, particularly in terms of Shi’ite unity from Iran to Lebanon and beyond.
Sistani’s statements about the ongoing conflict between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon follow the Iranian political line; however, they focus on providing aid and emphasizing the necessity of helping the Lebanese face this crisis.
He also issued an emotionally charged statement mourning Hassan Nasrallah, describing him as the “great martyr.” His sons held a three-day mourning period for Nasrallah in Najaf and Karbala, the two holiest cities in Iraq for Shi’ites.
Sistani strongly endorses the “support” operations carried out by Iranian-backed proxies against Israel which contributes in great measure to the alignment of pro-Iran Shi’ite organizations and their execution of missile strikes against Israel.
Here, we can point to Sistani’s role in mobilizing Iraqi Shi’ite power during the confrontation with ISIS by issuing his famous Sufficiency Jihad fatwa in 2016 and rallying all factions under the banner of what is known as Iraq’s Shi’ite Popular Mobilization Forces.
However, Sistani does not appear directly in the conflictual relationship between Iran and Israel. This conflict involves dimensions that go beyond religious issues and include struggles for hegemony and strategic influence amid the increasing clash between the Iranian expansionist project and Israel’s desire to ensure its security and stability.
With Sistani capable of mobilizing most, though not all of the Iraqi Shi’ite front, it stands to reason that Israel might be considering adding Khamenei himself to the assassination list.
The political and security costs would involve only slight differences in both cases. Both are major Shi’ite leaders, and the expected Shi’ite anger in the event of the assassination of either would be comparable.
It might even be greater in Sistani’s case, given the factor of power struggle within the circle close to the Iranian supreme leader.
Khamenei enters the circle of Israel's potential targets
SECOND, THE current geopolitical climate – which Israel considers unique – pushes Khamenei into the circle of potential Israeli targets.
This is true in terms of the successive victories Israel is achieving in weakening Iran’s power and its regional proxies; it is also applicable to the current international and regional support for Israeli military operations to neutralize the Iranian threat.
It is evident that the succession and escalation of Israeli assassination operations against prominent Iranian leaders or Iran loyalists has not resulted in any significant cost to Israel; the reaction of the Islamic Republic did not exceed verbal threats and the firing of antiquated missiles – which were intercepted by Israel and its allies – to satisfy the psychological needs of the pro-Iranian public.
These minimal consequences will encourage Israel to target Iran’s top leaders, including Khamenei himself.
It turns out Israel’s successive and escalating assassinations of prominent Iranian or pro-Iranian leaders have not, as of now, resulted in a cost that would compel the Israeli security establishment to discontinue of these bold operations, even if they hit the head of the Iranian regime.
What are the strategic assessments?
THIRD, THERE are strategic assessments that view the scenario of targeting Khamenei as potentially the least costly and most impactful.
This scenario would have implications for disrupting the calculations of Iranian regime leaders and igniting conflict within the narrow circle of power. It could also create the conditions to spark popular unrest among those already primed to challenge the regime.
This is being fueled by deteriorating economic and security conditions and the country’s preoccupation with ongoing external confrontations and conflicts.
The scenario of the assassination of Khamenei has become a genuine Iranian concern. It is no longer dismissed by the security apparatus there, especially after the series of targeted attacks by Israel against Nasrallah – and reportedly against Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Doubts and unanswered questions surrounding the death of Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi, when his helicopter crashed in May, have also contributed to this concern.
This explains reports confirming the rush to move the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader to a secure location after receiving news of Nasrallah’s assassination.
The depth of Israeli intelligence penetration of IRGC security agencies and its proxies has become apparent. This makes the possibility of reaching the head of the Iranian power hierarchy a real concern for many, especially for the leaders of the IRGC.
The decisive factor in all of the above hinges on the assessment by Israeli decision-makers of the cost-benefit analysis being conducted during this period, which aims to maximize Israel’s strategic gains from the turbulent regional scene.
In my opinion, the idea of assassinating the supreme leader may recede slightly in favor of more vital targets. These could include Iran’s nuclear and missile program facilities.
This depends on Israel’s operational capability to carry out an effective strike against these facilities without the risk of facing a second strike. It also depends on the IRGC’s capability to retaliate against the potential Israeli attack. In this case, the scenario seems open to all possibilities, including all-out war.
Subjecting Iranian nuclear and missile capabilities to a failed or limited-impact strike could compel the IRGC to use all available offensive capabilities against Israel. They might do so without restraint or political calculations.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-825719
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Reviving Turkish-Iraqi Ties with The Development Road
By Burak Elmali
OCT 23, 2024
Turkish-Iraqi relations have gradually warmed over the past five years. In contrast to Iran's approach, which relies heavily on a network of sectarian groups and militias to exert influence, Ankara’s Iraq strategy focuses on fostering economic growth and enhancing development as a key prerequisite to improving regional security and prosperity.
A key aspect of the Turkish strategy is the Development Road Project. As a significant milestone of Turkish-Iraqi cooperation, this project is poised to reshape regional trade with its 1,200-kilometer (approximately 745-mile) highway and railway network. Starting from the al-Faw port in the Persian Gulf and cutting through Iraq before entering Türkiye at Ovaköy, this massive route links key ports and border crossings, promising a game-changing shift for both economies. With three phases slated for completion in 2028, 2033 and 2050, this project isn’t just about connectivity – it’s about transforming the economic landscape of the region.
Geopolitical power move
The geopolitical stakes surrounding global connectivity projects are high, especially as the war in Gaza, triggered by Israel’s Oct. 7, 2023, offensive, ripples across the region. The Houthis have already disrupted vital maritime routes like the Red Sea. Meanwhile, grand plans like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) project, announced with much fanfare last year, remain stuck on paper, far from securing a strong foothold in the Middle East. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is also stumbling, with its flagship China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project in Pakistan bogged down by attacks and sabotage by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). And let's not forget Iran’s International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which, constrained by Western sanctions, offers limited global appeal.
In this tangled web of challenges, the Development Road shines as a practical alternative for ships traveling between China and Europe. While the southern corridor through the Suez Canal takes about 35 days, and the Cape of Good Hope route stretches to 45 days, the Development Road slashes travel time to just 25 days. With investment support from regional heavyweights like Qatar and the UAE, this project represents not only a new trade route but also a bold move towards self-driven regional development.
Of course, no grand project in this region comes without risks. The Development Road’s path passes through areas troubled by PKK terrorism, and the Syria-Iraq border is riddled with the destabilizing activity of the terrorist group's Syrian wing, the YPG. Yet, Ankara has shown remarkable progress in its counterterrorism efforts, and its strengthened ties with Baghdad are starting to pay off. In recent years, Iraq’s National Security Council has gone as far as outlawing PKK-linked political groups. The military base in Bashiqa will also play a crucial role in Iraq’s military modernization, bolstered by Türkiye’s support.
But this isn’t just a Turkish concern anymore. PKK terrorism has evolved into a serious threat to Iraq’s social fabric, with the group committing extortion, blocking roads and launching attacks on villages. Unlike its predecessors, the Sudani government in Iraq is aligned with Ankara’s stance, signaling a united front against this mutual threat and opening up new ways of collaboration including intelligence sharing.
Iran, a key player in Iraq’s post-Saddam politics, might not be thrilled about Türkiye’s growing influence through the Development Road. How Iran-backed militias respond to investments linked to the project remains an open question. However, Ankara seems prepared for this. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s February meeting with Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) leader Falih Al-Fayyadh, where both sides are on the same page regarding the very necessity of removing PKK elements from Sinjar, suggests that Türkiye is actively addressing these security concerns through broad diplomatic engagement.
With the upcoming U.S. presidential elections and the possibility of a Trump return raising the specter of "maximum pressure" on Iran, Tehran might find it wise to reconsider its stance. A revitalized Iraqi economy, after all, could be a win-win for both countries. Blocking the Development Road entirely would be a strategic misstep, especially since Iran controls the Hormuz Strait, a key passage for the project’s Gulf link. If Tehran wants a slice of the pie, a deal can surely be made. This has always been the course of Turkish diplomacy as Fidan points out an open door policy for the initiative.
A boon for Türkiye’s economy
For Türkiye, the Development Road offers more than just a strategic trade route – it’s a potential economic catalyst. By establishing special economic zones (SEZs), expanding port and highway connections, attracting foreign investment and adopting an export-driven strategy, Türkiye could maximize the project’s benefits. Situated between Gulf and European markets, the country can become a production and logistics hub if it plays its cards right.
The Turkish-Iraqi partnership, encompassing economic, political, cultural and security collaboration, serves as a model for peace and prosperity in the region. Central to this cooperation is the Development Road Project, which is set to transform regional dynamics through shared economic progress and security efforts. By prioritizing development over militarization, this partnership represents a pivotal shift toward sustainable stability. With their focus on connectivity and addressing security challenges, both Türkiye and Iraq are positioned to take leadership roles in shaping the region's future economic and geopolitical landscape.
https://www.dailysabah.com/opinion/op-ed/reviving-turkish-iraqi-ties-with-the-development-road
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Netanyahu Must Put His Ministers in Order To Make Successful 'Day After' Plan
By JPost Editorial
OCTOBER 23, 2024
With more than 100 hostages still unaccounted for in Gaza and Israel a year deep into the war in Gaza as well as now also being entrenched in Lebanon, 500 activists gathered near Kibbutz Be’eri close to the Gaza border for a rally concluding a two-day “Preparing to Settle in Gaza” festival.
The “revival” celebration was attended by the usual suspects of settler leaders and hard-right activists and was organized by the Nahala pro-settlement organization.
Monday’s gathering’s main premise was to promote the idea that Israelis must resettle in Gaza to prevent future attacks similar to those that occurred on October 7 last year.
The attendees consider the 2005 Disengagement from Gaza to be a fatal mistake that enabled Hamas to take over and use it for the next two decades as a launching pad for rocket fire in southern Israel.
Nahala leader Daniella Weiss, who played a prominent role in opposing the 2005 withdrawal, said Nahala had already reached an agreement worth “millions of dollars” to set up temporary housing units near the Gaza border, which she said would eventually make their way into the Gaza Strip.
She quoted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said several months ago in an interview on Channel 14 that the matter was “unrealistic,” and she responded that many people believed the same about West Bank settlements, but the fact that there were now 330 settlements and 850,000 people living there, according to Weiss, proved that it was feasible.
In a country that touts free expression, there’s nothing wrong with Weiss promoting that plan, no matter how farfetched and potentially damaging to Israel’s image, which she and her compatriots think will make Israel more secure.
However, take a look at who else attended the rally: National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit), Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich (RZP), Women’s Advancement Minister and Social Equality Minister May Golan (Likud), and Development of the Negev and Galilee Minister Yitzhak Wasserlauf (Otzma Yehudit), who all spoke passionately.
Calling to renew settlements in Gaza
MKs who attended the rally included Ariel Kallner, Avichay Boaron, Osher Shekalim, Tally Gotliv, and Sasson Guetta from the Likud; Zvi Sukkot from the Religious Zionist Party; and Limor Son Har-Melech from Otzma Yehudit.
“If we want it, we can renew settlements in Gaza,” Ben-Gvir told the crowd to roaring applause. He also called for Israel to “encourage emigration” of Palestinians from Gaza.
“It’s the best and most moral solution, not by force but by telling them, ‘We’re giving you the option; leave to other countries; the Land of Israel is ours,’” he said.
A minister like Ben-Gvir attending a fringe rally and promoting a position that contradicts the government’s stated position is bad enough, and it points to the anarchy within the coalition.
The Jerusalem Post’s Eliav Breuer, who attended the rally, reported that several people wore Kahane Chai (“Kahane is Alive”) apparel in support of the Jewish supremacist Kach movement formed by Rabbi Meir Kahane.
During Ben-Gvir’s speech, some of his supporters shouted “Kahane Chai.” But what is really astounding about Monday’s event was the participation of the Likud ministers and MKs. They are from the leading party of the coalition and are led by Netanyahu.
In a period of time in which the world is looking at Israel with magnifying glasses, the fact that nearly a third of the members of the prime minister’s party in the Knesset are in favor of a policy that not only Israel’s allies oppose but that the government of Israel opposes is staggering.
Israel is in the worst diplomatic situation it’s been in since its establishment.
Allies such as France and the UK have been discussing different types of arms embargoes on Israel, and the international media are dying to show the extreme, perhaps racist elements of Israeli society.
Netanyahu must put his house in order and instruct the MKs in his party and the ministers in his coalition to wait with these ambiguous statements for the time being.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-825763
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Those Elevated and Those Ruined by October 7
By Shmuley Boteach
OCTOBER 22, 2024
The holiest of all High Holy Day Prayers is “Enusane Tokef” where we speak about who shall live and die and “who shall be denigrated and shall be elevated.
With the passage of a year and the coming actual Jewish calendar date of the massacre this Thursday, Simchat Torah in Israel, normally described as Judaism’s happiest day but certainly not this year, it’s time to evaluate who was elevated and who was denigrated this past year.
I will not deal with who will live and who will die as there is no way of quantifying the 1200 innocents massacred on October 7 and the subsequent 800 soldiers, nor even the innocent Palestinian children who died serving as human shields for the terrorists of Hamas. Rather, my purpose is a geo-political and historical assessment of the personalities involved and what we may learn from a sobering year of slaughter and carnage, mixed with victory and, at times, elation.
Elevated
1. The IDF - I have to admit that as the reports began to trickle in a year ago on the Sabbath and Shemini Atzeret, my confidence in the IDF was shaken to the core. Did Israel still have an army? Even at that time I knew that my two sons had already been called up to their units. But how did the terrorists run amuck for more than six hours before any substantial presence of Israel’s army? Back in 2022 in Uvalde, Texas, where 18-year-old Salvador Ramos fatally shot 19 students and 2 teachers, while injuring 17 others, it took the police an hour and a quarter to go into the school. And this was seen as a profound dereliction. But six hours as 3000 terrorists raped, murdered, and beheaded?
No doubt when this dreaded war is over a full investigation will be conducted and appropriate fixes implemented.
But none of that changes how exaltedly the IDF has redeemed itself. The Israeli military and the Jewish State’s intelligence services have subsequently distinguished themselves as far and away the bravest and most effective combat force on earth. My son Mendy, who served both in Gaza and Lebanon, told me, “Tatty, when the IDF is allowed to take the gloves off by all the dastardly political pressure of the UN and the EU etc, it’s a miracle to watch. You have to see the bravery of soldiers going house to house wiping out the Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists with zero fear. It’s a marvel to behold.
2. Binyamin Netanyahu – Yes, October 7 happened on Bibi’s watch and that will be an inescapable part of his legacy. But unlike Golda Meir who allowed – with full and undeniable knowledge – Egypt and Syria to attack Israel exactly at 2pm on October 6th 1973 in order not to piss off Lyndon Baines Johnson who warned her against a 1967-style pre-emptive strike, Golda never saw the war to its victorious conclusion.
She stupidly allowed herself to be pressured by Jewish-American Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, one of the worst public figures in American diplomatic history and an outright traitor to his people (notice that when Kissinger died at age 100 earlies this year, he was mourned by virtually no one). Arik Sharon had encircled the Egyptian 3rd Army and could have annihilated the Egyptian fighting force. Instead, she gave them food, water, and other provisions and they went home in safety.
Bibi has done precisely the opposite. Against monumental and truly incalculable pressure, he is seeing the war to its conclusion, not just with the targeted killing of the demonic Hanan Nasrallah and the satanic Yahya Sinwar, but with the total evisceration of both Hamas and Hezbollah’s military capacities to attack Israel, God willing.
History has many examples of leaders who blew it by allowing a surprise attack – most notably Franklin Delano Roosevelt – who went on, through the demand of unconditional surrender, to not just redeem themselves but emerge as incomparable wartime leaders. Today, FDR is rightly considered by historians among American’s three greatest Presidents (although his refusal to bomb the train tracks to Auschwitz or allow more Jews to enter the US during the war will forever tarnish his legacy.)
Bibi has now emerged as one of the greatest Jewish military leaders of all time, and this while getting almost zero credit from the Jews and being completely excoriated by the rest of the world. He couldn’t’ give a damn. His job is to protect Israel and annihilate its adversaries, something that few historical leaders have ever done as effectively.
3. American pro-Israel social media influencers – From the beginning of the war we saw thousands of Jewish and non-Jewish lovers of Israel go to their phones and laptops and push back ferociously against the incessant blood libels against the Jewish state. Remember, this is an all volunteer army and they have done an outstanding job showing the reptilian likes of antisemite Candace Owens, Nick Fuentes, and the repulsive Hadid sisters that if you falsely attack the Jews you will pay an incalculable reputational price.
4. Parents of the hostages – If anyone needed any convincing of the Jewish value of promoting and protecting life, you need not look any further than the relentless campaigns of the suffering families of Israel’s hostages to have their children and relatives rescued or release.
They dominated both Republican and Democratic conventions, made the identities of their children household names in the United States, and organized massive demonstrations throughout the world to ensure that their loved ones are not forgotten. While Palestinian parents were ululating for their children who became “Shahids,” murderous terrorists who killed Israeli babies, their Israeli counterparts demanded neither retribution or revenge but simply the return home of their loved ones.
4. The State of Israel – Tell me one example of any country in history that is fighting a six front war – Hezbollah, Hamas, Houtis, Syria, Islamic Jihad, and above all else the barbarians in Tehran who not only do not quit but fight like lions to defend hearth and home.
Ruined
1. Kamala Harris – Never forget that the Vice President warned Israel repeatedly not go into Rafah as there was no worthwhile military objective and that the Palestinian population of some one million could not be moved out of harm’s way. The pictures of Sinwar, the Hamas Hitler, with a bullet in his brain gave the lie to that absurd admonition and Israel succeeded in moving nearly all the residents to safer ground.
2. The United Nations – The UN was created by Franklin Roosevelt to ensure that a Hitler figure would be stopped in the future by “the four policeman” (later five as China was added) of the Security Council. I often visit FDR’s grave in Hyde Park, New York, to thank him and Winston Churchill for saving the world from Germany and the Nazis. If he saw the UN today, or its International Court of Injustice, which equated Bibi with Sinwar, he would turn in his grave.
3. Dennis Prager and Ben Shapiro – It’s time to tell the truth. Neither Dennis, whom I looked up to for thirty years, nor Ben, are defenders of Israel. Rather, the war showed that they are merely Conservative and Republican talking heads. We’re lucky that the GOP is so amazingly pro-Israel. If it changes its posture, they would likely change their support as well, a fact easily proven by the millions of dollars each of them made creating and promoting arch-antisemite Candace Owens and refusing to donate the ill-gotten proceeds to the widows of IDF soldiers.
Shapiro is known for his U-turns based on what works in terms of getting subscribers for his Daily Liar website, as he did with his initial excoriation of Donald Trump only to become one of his most avid supporters. And Dennis and Ben actually defended Candace well after she emerged as America’s most demented antisemite and Shapiro only fired her when my daughter Rochel Leah Taktuk and I put enough public pressure on him where he had no choice but to cut ties with a woman said the IDF are genocidal and accused Jews of drinking the blood of Christians.
Ben Shapiro then disgraced himself by attacking Second Gentleman and super-mensch Doug Emhoff as being “as Jewish as a ham sandwich.” Shapiro is an utter ignoramus when it comes to Judaism which states clearly that if your Mom is Jewish so are you.
4. Jewish students on America’s Elite campuses – How is it that Harvard, which has 4000 Jewish students, NYU which has 6000, Columbia which has 5000, Penn with three thousand, etc, allowed activists from Students for Justice in Palestine take over whole campuses and rely only on the police and the Administration to protect them. Where were their voices?
It's been a year since the Jewish people suffered their greatest tragedy since the holocaust. It’s time for all of us to wake up to the lethal and genocidal threats that we Jews face all over the world and finally fight back.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-825722
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Bibi Was Right: How Israel’s Recent Military Successes Boost His Leadership
By JPost Editorial
OCTOBER 22, 2024
As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sipped his coffee Monday morning and opened his copy of The Jerusalem Post, he probably allowed himself a brief moment to smile. Monday marked his 75th birthday, and Israel’s longest-serving leader has had a year that has seen him come back from the brink.
Just as he has fended off many pretenders to his crown over the 17 years he has held power (over three different terms), the past few months have seen Netanyahu watch Israel’s enemies disappear into the ether.
In a series of audacious and meticulously executed operations, Israel took out three of its most notorious enemies in a matter of months, cementing its reputation for high-level intelligence and bold military strikes.
On July 13, Mohammed Deif, the elusive head of Hamas’s “military” wing, was killed in Gaza after an Israeli airstrike targeted his location. On July 31, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh met a similar fate, assassinated by an explosive device remotely detonated in his guesthouse during a visit to Iran. Israel’s ability to carry out such an operation deep within Tehran shocked the world.
But the hits didn’t stop there. In September, Israel orchestrated a massive beeper operation targeting Hezbollah terrorists, causing explosions that crippled the group’s communication systems and claimed the lives of 42 fighters and wounded thousands. Days later, a strike in Beirut killed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s long-standing leader, in a precision airstrike on his underground command center.
Biden and Harris were wrong
These blows culminated last week in the killing of Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the October 7 attack, as the leader was discovered running away through the streets of Rafah. Each assassination revealed the depth of Israel’s intelligence and the sheer audacity of its military strategy, shaking the very foundations of Hamas, Hezbollah, and their allies.
Netanyahu has also had to deal with the US administration and its perceived mixed support for Israel throughout the war. Despite the replenishment of dwindling military supplies and the arrival of the US’s THAAD anti-missile system recently in anticipation of further escalation with Iran, the Biden administration has at times been prickly towards Israel’s conduct of the war. Most noticeably when it came to Rafah.
President Joe Biden stated in May that he would halt some shipments of American weapons if Netanyahu ordered a major invasion of Rafah. Vice President Kamala Harris also told interviewers that she had “studied the maps” and that a ground invasion of the southern Gaza Strip city would be “a mistake.”
As the death of Sinwar proved, Biden and Harris were wrong. Bibi was right.
He has also seen a political revival within Israel. The assumption over the past year was that Netanyahu, who built his reputation as the no-nonsense leader who would keep the country safe both from Palestinian terrorists and Iranian nukes, could not survive the biggest security failure in the country’s history. However, he has not only survived. His party is now almost back to pre-October 7 strength according to polls.
A Channel 13 survey held since the killing of Sinwar showed Likud reclaiming its position as Israel’s largest party.Netanyahu is benefiting from an uptick in Israel’s success in the war, along with the lack of anyone out there who can pose a real challenge. Benny Gantz, Yair Lapid, and Avigdor Liberman are doing nothing to enthuse the nation or rally it around their leadership – simply slamming Netanyahu, which is Lapid’s and Liberman’s default mode, is not doing the trick.
It is only natural that the popularity of the leader of a nation at war falls and rises with the fortunes of that war, and right now, Netanyahu’s numbers are on the rise as the war is going better than it was a few months ago. He still has a large percentage of the population angry with him; angry at the lack of a hostage deal; angry that responsibility for October 7 has not yet been taken; angry that thousands of citizens still cannot return to their homes, but Netanyahu has been around the block before and knows how to play the political game.
What Bibi has done is buy time, both hoping and gambling that his political fortunes will change as the tide of the war turns – from the very outset, he said this would be a long war. It seems the tide may have turned for the prime minister.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-825548
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US Charges Iranian Official In Alleged Plot To Kill Activist In New York
By Al Jazeera Staff
22 Oct 2024
The United States Justice Department has formally accused a senior official in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of involvement in a 2022 plot to kill an Iranian American dissident in New York City.
The murder-for-hire and money laundering charges against Ruhollah Bazghandi and three other Iranian citizens were revealed on Tuesday as part of a revised indictment laying out the alleged scheme.
The Justice Department did not name the target of the purported plot, but Iranian American journalist and activist Masih Alinejad confirmed that she was the potential victim.
“The revelation that the assassination plot against me in July 2022 was orchestrated by Ali Khamenei’s IRGC is a stark reminder of the brutal lengths to which the Islamic regime will go to silence dissidents, even those far beyond Iran’s borders,” she said, referring to Iran’s supreme leader.
Last year, the Justice Department charged several people with trying to kill Alinejad. One of the suspects – Khalid Mehdiyev – had been arrested outside her house with a rifle.
According to the indictment, Bazghandi and other Iranian officials contracted members of an Eastern European criminal organisation to kill Alinejad.
Bazghandi and the three other Iranian citizens, who are based in Iran, remain at large, US authorities said.
The Justice Department said Bazghandi is “an IRGC Brigadier General and has previously served as chief of an IRGC Intelligence Organization (IRGC-IO)”.
In a statement on Tuesday, US Attorney General Merrick Garland said: “We will not tolerate efforts by an authoritarian regime like Iran to undermine the fundamental rights guaranteed to every American.”
Alinejad has been an outspoken critic of the Iranian government and its treatment of women, including enforcement of mandatory hijab in the country.
In 2021, US prosecutors also charged four Iranians, alleged to be intelligence officers, with plotting to abduct Alinejad.
Tehran dismissed allegations of involvement in the kidnapping plot at that time as “ridiculous and baseless”.
Since the start of the Israeli offensive in Gaza, which has killed more than 42,700 Palestinians, Alinejad has been pushing to portray Hamas as an Iranian proxy, calling for an end to the current governing system in Tehran.
Tuesday’s charges come amid a major standoff in the Middle East with anticipation of an attack by Israel – the top US ally in the region – against Iran.
S President Joe Biden has suggested that he is aware of how and when the Israeli assault will take place. US officials previously vowed “severe consequences” for an Iranian rocket attack against Israel on October 1.
Iran targeted military bases in Israel in response to the killing of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the assassinations of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and an Iranian general in Beirut.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/22/us-charges-iranian-official-in-alleged-plot-to-kill-activist-in-new-york
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Lebanon's Option: Resistance for Self-Defence
By Issam Naaman
October 22, 2024
A long (and futile) debate is taking place in Lebanon about which is more effective: seeking a ceasefire or working and, thus, resisting, to stop Israel’s escalating aggression against the land, people, trees, stones, resistance, army, UNIFIL peacekeeping forces and all aspects of life in the Land of the Cedars.
The majority of those who support a ceasefire are opponents of Hezbollah, which is rising up with other Lebanese and Palestinian organisations in fierce resistance to the Zionist enemy. The majority of those who support a halt to the Zionist attacks are enemies of Israel, which has been attacking Lebanon in one way or another since it signed an armistice agreement with it in 1949, until it occupied about half of its area in 1982 and established a strip of occupation along its borders with Occupied Palestine that lasted about twenty years. It only withdrew from it due to the persistent popular resistance.
Israel is now trying to reoccupy Lebanon. Today, Hezbollah and its allies are confronting it and inflicting heavy human and material losses on it, not to mention hitting the home of the Occupying state’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, in Caesarea, prompting the Occupation to unleash its air force to strike homes and civilian shops, day and night, across all of Lebanon, from its south to its north, causing the displacement of no less than 1.3 million citizens. While the Lebanese are busy with their long and futile debate about which is more effective, a ceasefire or stopping the blatant Israeli aggression, Netanyahu rushed to respond to French President, Emmanuel Macron, who had called on him to avoid attacking the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in southern Lebanon, by stressing Israel’s opposition to a unilateral ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and confirming that the Israeli forces had asked UNIFIL to leave several times, but were repeatedly refused.
He claimed UNIFIL would provide a human shield for “Hezbollah terrorists,” saying that Macron and other advocates of stopping arms supplies to the Zionist entity at this time should feel ashamed of such a call. Netanyahu would not have gone so far in his positions on the ceasefire and his attack on UNIFIL, demanding that it leave southern Lebanon, and continuing to criticise Macron, saying he should feel ashamed for demanding a halt to the supply of weapons to Israel, had he not been confident in the United States’ support for him in his genocidal war on Gaza, his blatant aggression against Lebanon and his refusal of a ceasefire. Didn’t US President Joe Biden declare that he knew when Israel would respond militarily to Iran, but that he would not reveal that now? Didn’t his envoy to Lebanon, Amos Hochstein, declare to the Lebanese Al-Jadeed television channel that UN Resolution 1701 needs amendments and additions to ensure its implementation, refusing to provide any guarantees regarding the enemy’s cessation of bombing the capital, Beirut, and its southern suburbs? Don’t these attacks and positions prove what has become clear: that the American political action takes place within the framework of efforts aimed at completing what the Zionist enemy failed to achieve in the internal Lebanese equation, i.e., developing a political formula aimed at ensuring that the resistance of Hezbollah and its allies does not recover, and do not restore their capabilities and deterrent power in the post-war phase?
In light of these facts and developments, it is clear that Lebanon is not in a position that enables it to choose between a ceasefire and stopping the ongoing Israeli aggression but, rather, it is now bound to adopt one option, which is the resistance that is now emerging as part of the duty of self-defence, and the subsequent need to commit to the provision of all the capabilities and requirements needed to ensure success in deterring the enemy and defeating it. Moreover, it has become imperative for the national forces in the government and opposition to realise a stark fact, i.e., they should not expect any tangible and effective support from the ruling forces in the Western Atlantic countries of Europe and America, since the political and economic developments in those countries have affected the right-wing forces with their anti-Semitic ideological history, according to the well-known French thinker, Alain Gresh, and turned them into forces that support Israel, as Islam has become the main enemy for them after they succeeded in imposing their discourse and concepts on the political scene in European countries.
There is also the fact that the Lebanese and Palestinian resistance forces must take into account, which is that there is no significant force supporting them in the world except Iran, and although Iran has been able to confront the American pressures and sanctions against it since the outbreak of its revolution in 1979, and has succeeded on the military (especially in manufacturing long-range ballistic missiles) and technological levels, it still faces great American pressure and an imminent threat of Israel using nuclear weapons against it. Iran has shown a clear willingness to support the Lebanese and Palestinian resistance forces politically and militarily, and it has sent both its Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, and its Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, to Lebanon and Syria to confirm Tehran’s commitment to supporting the resistance forces and the Arab governments that support them. However, its first commitment remains defending itself as it is threatened by an Israeli attack that is rumoured to be targeting its nuclear facilities. Tehran may be able to fulfil both commitments, but the challenge remains very great, especially if Netanyahu is able to drag the US into participating in his expected attack on it before 5 November. Whatever the case, Iran would not have committed to supporting the Lebanese and Palestinian resistance if it were not able to do so. Perhaps it also realises that what both resistances, especially the Lebanese resistance, lack are air defence missiles it can use to confront Israel’s advanced F-35 aircraft. It is rumoured that Iran possesses Russian S-300 and S-400 missiles that can shoot down the advanced Israeli American aircraft if they are flying in Iranian skies or close to its airspace, but it is not possible for them to do so if they are flying over Lebanon or Palestine due to the long distance.
How can this dilemma be addressed?
It is said that there are two solutions: the first is difficult and the second is easy. The difficult solution is to provide the Lebanese resistance with the effective air defence missiles that Iran possesses, due to the difficulty of delivering them to Lebanon. The easy solution is for Tehran to provide the Iraqi resistance forces with these missiles so that the latter can use them against Israeli aircraft when they bomb civilian or military targets in Lebanon. The Iranian missiles must be able be effective from the shorter distance between Iraq and Lebanon. However, if the long distance prevents the Iraqi resistance forces from using Iranian air defence missiles from Iraq, Tehran has no choice but to announce that its “revenge” against Israel, avenging Lebanon and Palestine and in honour of their people, will be expressed in Iran’s deafening response to Israel’s expected attack before or after 5 November. Strategic patience is the key to relief for Lebanon and Palestine.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241022-lebanons-option-resistance-for-self-defence/
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Australia Relies On Israeli Weapons, Which Means It Now Relies On Genocide
by Ramona Wadi
October 22, 2024
A month after the UK suspended 30 arms licences out of 350 on account of the weapons being used in violation of international law in Gaza, Australia has announced its own review of its arms sales to Israel. Australia says that it has not supplied weapons to Israel since the genocide started last October; indeed, it has not done so for the past five years.
However, in questions addressed to the Department of Defence in Canberra in June this year, it emerged that the Australian government approved eight other permits which it says are related to items required by the Australian Defence Force. Guardian Australia reported that 12 export permits to Israel have been issued since October 2023. Export permits were issued “for items other than weapons or ammunition, and this goes to, for example, dual-use technologies and components.”
Out of 247 permits since 2019, 66 have remained active which are now under scrutiny. In response to questions asked during a parliamentary session regarding the nature of the permits approved since October 2023, Australia’s Deputy Defence Secretary Hugh Jeffrey stated, “We don’t go into the individual content of the permits themselves,” and maintained that the permits are related to exports.
Chris Deeble, Deputy Secretary of the Capability Acquisition and Sustainment Group (CASG) then went on to expound on Australia’s reliance on Israeli military technology. “We do so because they provide world-leading and world-class capability and we want to ensure that our soldiers, sailors and aviators get the best capability,” he said. No mention was made, of course, about how Palestinians are the collateral damage when such weapons are “field-tested” in occupied Palestine, and how Australia’s reliance on Israeli technology is thus also a reliance on Israel’s genocide in Gaza.
In its assessment of arms licences, the UK excluded the F-35 parts so that the global supply chain would not be affected. When asked if the Australian weapons parts were used on the F-35 jets used to bomb Gaza, Jeffrey answered, “We can’t speak for the IDF [Israel Defence Forces] and how it engages in force employment.” According to Jeffrey, the Memorandum of Understanding regarding the F-35 programme “requires Australia to provide those contributions in good faith.”
In keeping with its usual secrecy in the name of national security, the Australian government’s report for 2023-2024 does not indicate the countries with which it has weapons export permits, only the continents. Nor does Australia specify the military supplies in its report.
While Australia may not be a major weapons arms supplier to Israel, the fact remains that it still maintains agreements with a settler-colonial entity that is committing genocide against the Palestinian people, which makes Australia complicit in the genocide, along with other countries.
Nevertheless, to rely upon feigned ignorance of any part of the weapons supply chain, on good faith and on wanting the Australian military to benefit from “the best capability” only shows Australia to be actively pursuing violence, just like other countries that have military and weapons agreements with Israel.
If civilians around the world can see the truth and call it a genocide, governments should have led the way earlier in calling out Israel rather than supporting the annihilation of Palestinians in Gaza. Former colonialist countries supporting the current colonisers only illustrates that the world operates on the same politics of extermination as it has done for the past few centuries.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241022-australia-relies-on-israeli-weapons-which-means-it-now-relies-on-genocide/
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Biden’s Good Intentions On Gaza Ignored by Israel
Kerry Boyd Anderson
October 22, 2024
US President Joe Biden tried to persuade Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to avoid a ground invasion of Gaza, allow humanitarian aid to flow to civilians, forgo an offensive in Rafah and more, but Israel proceeded anyway despite warnings from the leader of its closest ally. “Biden believed if he were to firmly and publicly break with Netanyahu, it would risk Israel’s security — something he was not prepared to do after Oct. 7,” writes legendary journalist Bob Woodward in his new book, “War.”
Woodward’s book focuses on how the Biden administration has responded to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, plus some reporting about the withdrawal from Afghanistan and former President Donald Trump’s role since he left the White House. “War” takes statements from most officials at face value, providing a record of who said what, when and why. The book offers fascinating anecdotes about conversations between senior US officials and foreign leaders and diplomats and is a great record for readers who appreciate blow-by-blow accounts of political and diplomatic intrigue. However, it does not — and does not seek to — provide context about the war in Gaza or any sophisticated understanding of the Middle East.
When it comes to the war in Gaza, Woodward’s narrative sounds like a constantly repeating record of Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other senior officials demanding that Israel do more to protect and provide for civilians in Gaza.
Biden and his team supported Israel’s right to militarily respond to the Oct. 7 Hamas attack and immediately increased supplies of US weapons to Tel Aviv. Despite disagreements with Netanyahu over the way the Israelis were carrying out military action, Biden flew to Israel and openly embraced him. As the war wore on, however, Biden’s team constantly warned Israeli leaders to act with more care and Israeli leaders continually ignored them.
From early on in the war, Biden’s team pressed Israel to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza, while Israel’s government at first refused and then grudgingly allowed only small amounts that were often blocked by Israeli rules or lack of coordination to ensure safety for humanitarian workers. Biden insisted that Israel should not send its soldiers into Rafah without a viable plan to protect and provide for civilians, but Israel went ahead anyway.
In some cases, Biden’s efforts contributed to some restraint, such as helping to persuade the Israeli government not to launch a major attack against Hezbollah a few days after Oct. 7. Biden’s team also helped to contain fighting between Israel and Iran. However, Biden’s attempts to persuade Israel to take a more careful approach in Gaza mostly failed. In the book, Biden often warns Netanyahu that he will take actions — including withholding offensive weapons deliveries — if the Israeli PM does not change course, but then does not follow through when Netanyahu predictably ignores him.
Biden and his team sincerely wanted to ensure that civilians in Gaza received sufficient humanitarian aid, to convince Israel to significantly reduce civilian casualties and to avoid a broader regional war. Senior US officials saw protecting and assisting civilians as both a moral and strategic priority and frequently made that argument to Israeli leaders. Biden and his administration believed — at least initially — that they could use their influence with Israel to persuade it to minimize harm to civilians and perhaps make a start toward a two-state solution.
The problem is that the Biden team failed to fully internalize the reality of the current Israeli government’s interests. In Woodward’s account, Blinken is often surprised by Israeli officials’ attitudes, including their early proposal to send Gaza civilians into Egypt, initial determination to submit the Strip to a total siege with no humanitarian provisions and general lack of concern about Palestinian civilians. As Israel continued to destroy Gaza and severely limit aid, Biden and his team became increasingly aggravated with Netanyahu — leading the president to eventually exclaim that Netanyahu is “a bad guy” and a “liar.”
Yet, throughout months of war in Gaza, Biden and his officials refused to truly accept the reality that the current Israeli government does not care about Palestinian civilians, utterly rejects the idea of a Palestinian state and sees the post-Oct. 7 period as an opportunity to push forward an agenda to annex the West Bank and destroy, once and for all, the idea of a sovereign Palestine.
For Netanyahu and his government, the top priority is preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state and that priority shapes all other regional interests. Biden and his team appear unable or unwilling to recognize this reality and shape US policy accordingly. At best, they blame Netanyahu personally and fail to appreciate that he is hardly the only Israeli politician to share his goals.
Woodward’s book briefly addresses how Trump might view the issue. Trump and many Republicans are better than Biden-style Democrats at recognizing that the Israeli government seeks permanent control over the Palestinian territories and accepts a very high cost to civilians. While Biden chooses to believe that he can work with Israel toward a more humanitarian approach and even peace, Trump’s team sees the Israeli government’s approach clearly — and sees no reason to object.
Woodward generally takes a positive view of the Biden administration’s motives, but his account raises questions about its effectiveness in terms of the war in Gaza. The parts of the book that focus on the Middle East conflict highlight Biden’s good intentions, but also his lack of credible leverage with Israel.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2576297
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URL: https://www.newageislam.com/middle-east-press/khamenei-turkey-iran-netanyahu-us-lebanon-/d/133517
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