Middle East Press on: Israel, Iran, Nuclear, Assad, Syria, War, Gaza: New Age Islam's Selection, 7 January 2025
By New Age Islam Edit Desk
7 January 2025
Israel Can't Afford To Take Threat Of Another Virus Lightly Amid War
Is Trump's Intel Team Prepared For The Challenges Of Volatile Iran?
The World Has Israel To Thank For No Nuclear Fears In Post-Assad Syria
Blinken's Comments On Hamas: Too Little, Too Late
The Countdown Begins To Topple Netanyahu's Government And Remove Him From The Political Scene
Syria New Leaders Face Economy Decimated By War, Sanctions
Israel’s Pitiless War On Gaza Continues Apace
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Israel Can't Afford To Take Threat Of Another Virus Lightly Amid War
By Jpost Editorial
January 7, 2025
China is experiencing a rise in human metapneumovirus (HMPV) cases, causing hospital overcrowding and heightening public fears of a potential epidemic. The surge coincides with the winter season, a time when respiratory illnesses commonly increase due to colder temperatures and more indoor gatherings that promote virus transmission.
For those of you who have been on Planet Earth for more than three years, this may give you whiplash. Indeed, similar to the current surge in HMPV cases in China, the coronavirus saw seasonal spikes, particularly during colder months.
Just as hospitals are now overwhelmed due to HMPV, healthcare systems faced immense pressure during COVID-19 outbreaks. The combination of indoor gatherings and lower temperatures created conditions that accelerated viral transmission, highlighting a broader pattern where respiratory illnesses, including coronaviruses, tend to peak during colder seasons, straining public health resources and raising concerns about widespread outbreaks.
According to official global reports, an estimated 6.9 million deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 since the pandemic began in late 2019, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). However, studies indicate that the actual toll may be significantly higher, with some estimates suggesting over 20 million excess deaths during the pandemic period, taking into account underreporting and indirect fatalities linked to strained healthcare systems.
Israel’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic was characterized by rapid actions, a highly effective vaccination campaign, and a mix of strict lockdowns and evolving public health policies. It made life, in a word, harsh.
Israel implemented one of the world’s earliest and strictest lockdowns. The first national lockdown began in March 2020, following a rapid increase in cases. Non-essential businesses were closed, schools shifted to online learning, and citizens were restricted to staying within 100 meters of their homes except for essential activities such as purchasing food or receiving medical care. Borders were closed, and mandatory quarantines were imposed on returning citizens.
This initial lockdown was largely successful in flattening the curve of infections, but it came at a significant economic cost, with businesses shuttered and unemployment rates soaring.
The second national lockdown occurred in September 2020, just as Rosh Hashanah, Sukkot, and Yom Kippur were approaching. This lockdown was triggered by a sharp surge in COVID-19 cases after a rapid summer reopening, with mass gatherings contributing to the rise in infections. Restrictions during this period mirrored those of the first lockdown but were even stricter in some areas.
The third national lockdown was implemented in late December 2020 after yet another wave of infections, this time driven by the more contagious Alpha variant. The surge coincided with delays in the early stages of the vaccination campaign, prompting the government to reintroduce strict measures. By February 2021, Israel’s high vaccination rates allowed for a gradual easing of restrictions, which many credited with preventing the healthcare system from becoming overwhelmed. Nevertheless, that left the country in a health and economic crisis for nearly a full year, and the impact of that is still felt today.
A reason to worry?
So now, with the new spike in HMPV infections in China, everyone’s a little on edge. While Beijing has downplayed the situation as a routine seasonal trend, new monitoring measures have been implemented, including a pilot program to track pneumonia cases of unknown origin.
HMPV, first identified in 2001, is a respiratory virus that spreads through droplets and contact with surfaces, causing symptoms such as cough, fever, and fatigue. Although usually mild, it can lead to serious complications in vulnerable populations like children, the elderly, and those with weakened immune systems. Unlike COVID-19 but much like the peak of the coronavirus pandemic, HMPV has no vaccine or specific antiviral treatment, with care focusing on symptom management.
So, do we have another coronavirus on our hands? It is hard to say, but despite growing attention, officials stress that HMPV is not a novel virus-like COVID-19. It has been circulating globally for years, with populations developing partial immunity. But if there is going to be a global medical crisis once more, Israel’s leaders – who are busy enough as is with another life-threatening crisis – must learn from their past choices, both positive and negative. Prevent panic, maintain safety, and avert collapse.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-836361
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Is Trump's Intel Team Prepared For The Challenges Of Volatile Iran?
By Erfan Fard
January 7, 2025
As the clock ticks toward President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House, his national security and intelligence team appointments are emerging as a cadre of experienced strategists prepared to confront an increasingly volatile world.
Names like Michael Waltz (national security advisor), Tulsi Gabbard (director of national intelligence), Sebastian Gorka (counterterrorism advisor), John Ratcliffe (CIA director), Tom Homan (border security chief), Kash Patel (FBI director ), Kristi Noem (homeland security secretary) and Pete Hegseth (defense secretary) headline this formidable roster, each bringing a wealth of expertise and a nuanced understanding of Tehran’s destabilizing role in global security.
The team’s collective knowledge of Iran’s influence as the epicenter of Islamic terrorism in the Middle East positions it to tackle a range of geopolitical challenges. Yet, the question looms: Is this team equipped to navigate the intricacies of Iran’s hybrid warfare tactics, asymmetric threats, and expanding transnational terrorism networks?
A clear and present danger
The challenges facing Trump’s intelligence team are both immediate and severe. Iran’s leadership has openly signaled its hostility, with figures such as Iraj Masjedi, a senior Quds Force commander, issuing explicit death threats against Trump. These declarations are more than rhetoric – they highlight the regime’s capacity and willingness to act through a network of sleeper cells and lone operatives linked to the IRGC, Quds Force, and Iran’s MOIS (Ministry of Intelligence Service). These actors remain active within US borders and along strategic points in the Latin American corridor, exploiting vulnerabilities in transnational security systems.
Recent assassination plots, although thwarted, underscore the urgency of the threat. Such incidents have compelled US security agencies to enhance protective measures, demonstrating the evolving nature of Iran’s asymmetric warfare tactics. For Trump’s intelligence team, the dual task of safeguarding the former president and ensuring the nation’s broader security represents a significant operational challenge, requiring an unprecedented level of interagency coordination and strategic foresight.
Geopolitical complexity
While domestic threats demand immediate attention, the broader geopolitical landscape offers no respite. Tehran’s aggressive regional interventions continue to destabilize the Middle East, undermining efforts to maintain a fragile balance of power. Despite initiatives by Persian Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE to de-escalate tensions, the Iranian regime’s actions reveal a persistent agenda of regional hegemony, emboldened by strategic alliances with global powers, namely China and Russia.
This partnership not only strengthens Tehran’s military capabilities but also complicates the international response to its provocations. For Trump’s intelligence team, navigating this volatile landscape requires more than traditional diplomacy – it demands a sophisticated understanding of the Islamic Republic’s hybrid strategies, from proxy warfare to economic manipulation. Managing the implications of Tehran’s belligerent behavior while safeguarding regional stability will be one of the most critical tests of their strategic acumen and ability to counterbalance Iran’s ambitions.
The nuclear bomb puzzle
Central to the Iranian challenge is its relentless pursuit of nuclear weapons, which poses a direct threat not only to Israel but to global stability. Tehran’s ambitions, coupled with its history of deception and brinkmanship, necessitate a proactive and strategic response. Trump’s intelligence team, in collaboration with Israel’s Mossad, must meticulously monitor and counter these efforts, leveraging real-time intelligence to disrupt Iran’s progress toward weaponization.
Despite the weakening of Iranian terrorist proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah, the risk of direct conflict remains palpable. Tehran’s ability to exploit regional instability and its capacity for asymmetric retaliation further complicate the situation. For specialized units like the CIA’s Counterterrorism Center (CTC) or Counterproliferation Center (CPC), thwarting Iran’s nuclear aspirations will require not only tactical precision but also a comprehensive strategy to address the regime’s broader proliferation network. Ensuring that Iran’s nuclear ambitions are neutralized before they reach an irreversible stage is not just a priority – it is an imperative for global security.
The domestic front
On American soil, the challenges for agencies such as the FBI and DHS are equally urgent and multifaceted. Iranian-backed cyberattacks are escalating in both frequency and sophistication, targeting critical infrastructure and sowing digital chaos. However, the more insidious threat lies in sleeper cells and lone-wolf operatives embedded within US borders. These actors, directly linked to Tehran’s intelligence apparatus, represent an ongoing risk of assassination plots, physical violence, and targeted disruptions.
Adding to the complexity are pro-Iran lobbyists operating within US think tanks, Persian-language media outlets, and academic institutions. These groups actively work to influence American policy and political discourse, often cloaking their agendas in the guise of legitimate advocacy. Their activities amplify Tehran’s propaganda and seek to erode US strategic interests from within. For Trump’s intelligence team, countering these domestic threats demands an agile, multi-pronged approach that integrates counterintelligence operations, cyber-defense strategies, and enhanced interagency collaboration to safeguard national security.
Support for Iran’s opposition
A critical question facing Trump’s intelligence team is whether it will meaningfully support Iran’s opposition movements. Figures such as Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi present a prominent and credible alternative to the regime, yet US support for opposition groups has often been inconsistent, wavering between active engagement and strategic caution.
The stakes are high. Backing the real opposition voices could amplify the ongoing protests and strengthen the Iranian people’s push against Khamenei’s oppressive regime. However, such support must go beyond rhetoric. Will Trump’s team take decisive action, for instance purging US-funded Persian media of regime-affiliated reformists and countering Tehran’s propaganda networks that aim to sow discord and misinformation?
These measures could serve as powerful tools to delegitimize the regime on a global stage and bolster grassroots dissent within Iran. By aligning US policy with the aspirations of the Iranian people, Trump’s team has an opportunity to weaken Tehran’s grip and lay the groundwork for a freer, more stable Middle East.
A unified strategy
Trump’s intelligence team confronts the formidable challenge of crafting a cohesive, multi-layered strategy to counter the Iranian threat. While outright regime change may not be an explicit policy objective, the team’s actions and decisions will undeniably influence the trajectory of Iran’s role in the region. Achieving this requires addressing multiple dimensions: supporting the aspirations of the Iranian people, countering Tehran’s malign influence, and neutralizing the regime’s nuclear ambitions.
Success will demand unprecedented interagency coordination, strategic foresight, and a steadfast commitment to long-term objectives. Balancing immediate security threats with the broader goal of regional stability is no small task, particularly in the face of Tehran’s hybrid warfare tactics, its transnational terrorist networks, and its ambitions for regional hegemony.
As Trump prepares to assume office, the stakes for US national security and global stability could not be higher. Tehran’s rogue behavior remains unchecked, its threats unabated. For Trump’s team, the challenge extends beyond managing immediate crises. It involves laying the groundwork for a sustainable, forward-looking strategy that not only counters the regime’s aggression but also fosters peace and security – both within the United States and across the Middle East.
Whether this ambitious task is met will hinge on the team’s ability to navigate the complexities of the Iranian threat with precision, courage, and an unwavering commitment to democratic ideals and freedom. The world will be watching.
IRAN IS engulfed in multi-layered crises, and the 86-year-old dictator can no longer suppress public discontent, even through force. However, the historic opportunity to dismantle the Tehran regime may never arise again for Trump and Netanyahu. Optimistically, the regime change is at least a consideration in their strategic thinking; otherwise, as long as this brutal regime and its cancerous influence remain in power, the idea of achieving lasting peace in the Middle East will remain unattainable. Khamenei’s regime resembles a fragile spider’s web – unstable, weak, and unable to withstand the inevitable forces of change.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-836338
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The World Has Israel To Thank For No Nuclear Fears In Post-Assad Syria
By Louis René Beres
January 7, 2025
Following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s murderous regime, protracted uncertainty or outright chaos should be expected in Syria. Among other things, assorted remnants of al-Qaeda and ISIS terrorist groups will configure or reconfigure in the area, and Sunni Islamic states such as Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia could present Israel with a unique and unpredictable foe. Though Iran will suffer a temporary strategic loss from the defeat of its surrogate in Damascus, Jerusalem will not have to face any consequent nuclear threats. The core reason for this relatively good news lies in the Jewish state’s Operation Orchard, executed in September 2007.
Until then, Israel’s most visible effort to prevent an enemy nuclear state had been its widely remembered June 7, 1981, Osiraq raid against Iraq. Nonetheless, a later preemption was undertaken in Syria. Code-named Operation Orchard, it expressed Israel’s country-specific Begin Doctrine and also the general international law principle of anticipatory self-defense.
Meticulously planned, as was Operation Opera in 1981, Orchard represented a prudent defensive action against then-originating Syrian nuclear infrastructures. In essence, if the already-genocidal Damascus regime had not been the object of this 2007 Israeli preemption, nuclear weapons could eventually have fallen into the hands of Sunni jihadi terrorist organizations now beginning to contend for power in post-Assad Syria.
Israel’s first use of anticipatory self-defense against a potentially nuclear adversary in 1981 was directed at Saddam Hussein’s developing reactor near Baghdad. It was the broader international community’s failure to act in a similarly decisive fashion against North Korea that created still-expanding security woes with Kim Jung Un. Ironically, North Korea – which secretly built the Al Kibar plutonium-producing heavy water reactor destroyed by Orchard in 2007 – had been sending assembled nonnuclear arms to Syria. At that point, North Korean arms transfers supported Shi’ite Iran’s destructive influence in the region.
There are noteworthy regional intersections. Whatever the United States might assume about Pyongyang, it will be necessary to prevent Kim Jung Un from undertaking any North Korean aggressions against Japanese or South Korean nuclear power plants. In any such eventuality, especially in extremis atomicum, a further danger would surface: Unlike the Israeli preemptions against Osiraq and Al Kibar, which had been directed against pre-operational nuclear reactors, these prospective North Korean targets could suffer nuclear core meltdowns. Such events could produce calamities far worse than what was caused by the catastrophic accidents in Chernobyl and Fukushima.
During the attack on Osiraq, Israeli fighter-bombers destroyed Iraq’s nuclear reactor before it was ready to go “online.” Nonetheless, following the attack, the immediate global community reaction was generally hostile. In Resolution 487 of June 19, 1981, the UN Security Council indicated that it “strongly condemns” the attack and declared “Iraq is entitled to appropriate redress for the destruction it has suffered.” Largely forgotten is that then-US president Ronald Reagan took multiple steps to ensure the United States would vote in favor of this resolution of condemnation.
Preemptively striking when threat is imminent
International law is not a suicide pact. In jurisprudential terms, the UN and the United States were tangibly mistaken and misguided in 1981. Israel did not act illegally at Osiraq or (later, when there was no official UN reaction) at Syria’s Deir el-Zor. Under the long-standing customary right known as anticipatory self-defense, every state is entitled to strike first (within the boundaries of humanitarian international law) when the danger posed is “instant, overwhelming, leaving no choice of means and no moment for deliberation.” Significantly, this standard, dating back to 1837 in a naval incident known formally as “The Caroline,” is more compelling in the nuclear age than ever before.
In 2002, the United States issued a unilateral policy statement declaring the traditional right of anticipatory self-defense should now be expanded. Then, Washington’s strategic and jurisprudential argument hinged correctly on the expectedly unique dangers of any nuclear adversary. In 2002, The National Security Strategy of the United States was issued by the most powerful country on earth. In comparison, Israel, which in 1981 claimed a much more limited and moderate view of anticipatory self-defense, is small enough to fit once into a single county in California or twice into America’s Lake Michigan.
For Israel, there are pertinent and supportable doctrinal foundations. In regard to the 2007 Operation Orchard, then-prime minister Ehud Olmert unambiguously reasserted the 1981 Begin Doctrine. Several years later, in April 2011, the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency expressly confirmed that the Israel-bombed Syrian site had been the foundation of a menacing nuclear reactor. Indisputably, Olmert’s decision, like Begin’s earlier on, was “right on the money.” Inter alia, in our continuously anarchic world system, one that began at the Peace of Westphalia in 1648, international law is ultimately a “self-help” arrangement.
There is more. Israel’s 1981 and 2007 defensive strikes against enemy rogue states were not only lawful but law enforcing. In the continuing absence of any centralized global enforcement capability, international law must generally rely on the willingness of individual states to act forcefully on behalf of the world community. Such indispensable reliance was exhibited in June 1981 and in September 2007 by an existentially imperiled State of Israel.
As a fundamental principle of international law, anticipatory self-defense is grounded in years of refined military theory. “Defensive warfare... does not consist of waiting idly for things to happen,” counsels Carl von Clausewitz in On War: “We must wait only if it brings us visible and decisive advantages.” Prima facie, Israel chose not to wait in 1981 or, later, in 2007.
As an inconspicuous but vital result of Jerusalem’s preemption operations, the world needn’t have any of the nuclear fears about post-Assad Syria that it must still harbor about Iran. Owing to Israel’s widely overlooked Operation Orchard in 2007, the now-impending Syrian chaos may be deeply destabilizing, but it will plausibly be nonnuclear.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-836335
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Blinken's Comments On Hamas: Too Little, Too Late
By David Jablinowitz
January 7, 2025
Two weeks from now, Joe Biden will no longer be US president and Antony Blinken will not be serving as secretary of state. Blinken’s comments now are too little, too late.
In a New York Times interview published this past weekend, the secretary says that the absence of world pressure on Hamas to surrender and release the hostages held in Gaza since the October 7 massacre has been “astounding,” adding: “Why there hasn’t been a unanimous chorus around the world for Hamas to put down its weapons, to give up the hostages, to surrender – I don’t know what the answer is to that.”
Blinken goes further: “Israel, on various occasions, has offered safe passage to Hamas’s leadership and fighters out of Gaza,” and asks, “Where is the world?”
These are blunt comments from the top US diplomat, but he did not seem to find too many, if any, occasions to speak out in such a sharp manner, at least publicly, at an earlier stage when it might have made a difference. In a series of articles in The Jerusalem Post since the beginning of this war, a Biden aide has been sharing with me the dynamic of the cooperation between Washington and Jerusalem beyond the news headlines.
In the earlier days, Blinken spoke of the playbook at the White House to distinguish between what they viewed as the just cause of Israel’s battle to defeat Hamas and the problem at its helm, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. That strategy was manifested by behind-the-scenes close contact between the US and Israel on how to conduct the war, which included times of agreement and times of disagreement, but when it came time to hold high-level public talks in the US capital, the Biden administration preferred to invite then-defense minister Yoav Gallant and then-war cabinet minister Benny Gantz.
Before addressing the world’s silence, it must be pointed out that the US administration’s tightrope walk in handling Israel was largely due to domestic politics. Until the latter part of July, Biden was running for reelection. He was not only worried about the voters from his Democratic Party,but also about his vice president, Kamala Harris.
“She was the only top official in the president’s inner circle who was not totally on board when it came to the close cooperation with Israel to oust Hamas,” according to a White House source.
Trying to play both sides
US officials openly described it as a “good cop, bad cop” arrangement. The president felt close to Israel in general, and at this horrific time, in particular, and was trying to stand at the Jewish state’s side, even as Harris – while often condemning Hamas and calling for the release of the hostages – placed greater emphasis on the numbers of civilians, including young children, who were getting killed in Gaza and the need for a ceasefire.
A Biden aide put in frankly: “We warned the Israelis about civilian casualties, but we did that through military cooperation, while the vice president spoke out the way she did, supporting the Palestinians in Gaza but without interfering in what we were doing with the Israelis.”
THEN, HARRIS became a presidential candidate. As that was happening, Netanyahu addressed a joint session of Congress, invited to do so by the speaker of the House of Representatives, a member of the Republican Party. Netanyahu met with Biden, with smiles for the camera at the photo-op; Netanyahu then met with Harris. In the words of a Biden aide watching on television: “Their handshake was so cold, they could have gotten frostbite.”
This love-hate dynamic strengthened the feeling on the part of many Israel supporters that a president from the Democratic Party feels too much pushback from within the party if the backing for Israel is perceived as too broad and that the game Biden was forced to play because of the opposing forces with which he was confronted was detrimental to Israel.
After the vice president had already become the Democratic presidential candidate, she revisited the old theme. In October, marking a year since the Hamas atrocities, Harris was asked on the CBS program 60 Minutes about Netanyahu as a close US ally. Her reply: “I think, with all due respect, the better question is, do we have an important alliance between the American people and the Israeli people. And the answer to that question is yes.”
Right after the massacres, in October 2023, the Biden administration approached European countries and other US allies, calling for a unified front to “turn the screw on Hamas and Qatar,” in the words of a White House aide, who insists that had the challenge been accepted, the hostages would all be home, Hamas would be out of Gaza, the war would be over, and talks would be underway to improve the future of Gaza and its civilians.
Instead, various European countries and the EU leadership dismissed the US initiative as not being serious. They too, singled out the Israeli prime minister, with some saying that they did not wish to get involved in “Netanyahu’s war.” Did they not believe that this was a just war for Israel to be fighting?
SO NOW, as he is about to walk out the door of the State Department, Blinken asks: “Where is the world?”
Make no mistake, Israeli officials in the military, diplomatic and political echelons are grateful to the Biden administration for the assistance and friendship. On the other hand, as one senior Israeli diplomat in Europe put it: “It is criminal that there are world leaders, friends, who have the gall to condemn us after they didn’t want to get involved to help the situation right away, in October 2023.”
Yet, the Biden administration was considered weak on the international stage, in part due to its own political manoeuvring. It contributed to the reality in which the State of Israel has been forced to negotiate with terrorists for the release of hostages. There could have been a unified call, a demand, and action – if necessary – by the international community to force Hamas to unconditionally release the hostages and allow the Gazan people to live in peace.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-836353
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The Countdown Begins To Topple Netanyahu's Government And Remove Him From The Political Scene
By Aziz Mustafa
January 6, 2025
While the leaders of the Israeli occupation continue to repeatedly claim that they have “changed” the Middle East, the prevailing conviction among them, far from these demagogic and populist terms, raises the need to view the changes taking place in the region within a context that may carry many risks, making it necessary to stop feeling a sense of “misleading pride”.
The ongoing developments in the region have proven, despite what the occupying state claims about accomplishing military achievements for the past year, that they are surrounded by long walls, despite their extremely high costs, whether by allocating a huge share of the budget to maintain a large army, reaching 30 per cent of the state budget, the militarily burdened society the Israelis live in, or the constant feeling of fear and uncertainty.
At the same time, the disputes that the occupying state is witnessing, which have reached the level of fights, have been translated in the constant discourse in its diplomatic and political forums, and the circulation of reports that reveal the decline of its position on the international scene. This presents embarrassing and disturbing conclusions about it, and the decline of its strategic position on the regional scene.
Despite the obnoxious talk about the occupation’s military achievements, its political circles are talking about the government, and the offensive behaviour of its Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his ministers, which negatively affects its regional and international position. This has caused major damage to it and destroys its position on the international scene. This damage will continue as long as this government remains in power, because the world has come to know the state through its figures, such as Ben-Gvir and Smotrich.
Israelis have little doubt that their current government is worse and more dangerous than any criminal gang. Its leaders are intent on causing serious harm to the state, not to mention destroying it. Its President and ministers have shown disgraceful behaviour that has resulted in thousands of Israeli deaths, tens of thousands of Palestinian victims, hundreds of kidnapped people, tens of thousands of wounded people and hundreds of thousands of people evacuated from settlements. It has ultimately resulted in an exhausted and divided people, a collapsed political system, a shattered economy, global isolation and destroyed parts of the state.
Many Israelis also do not disagree with the fact that the government that rules them is illegitimate, beginning with its announcement of the judicial coup, and ending with its failure to foil the Hamas attack in October, and the repeated threats made by ministers against the leaders of the army and security, which has, over time, turned it into an illegitimate government that puts Israel in existential danger. This has caused increasing Israeli calls for the need to overthrow it, at any cost.
While the Israelis are busy discussing the “day after” the end of the Gaza war, there have been calls to discuss the “day after” Netanyahu’s departure from the political scene, in light of the ongoing investigations into the corruption cases he is involved in, and their prevailing belief that their current government and its President are experts at making false statements and deceptive tricks that raise the level of tension and anxiety among them. They believe the government is resuming its implementation of the legal coup that threatens them and drags the state towards madness and recklessness.
Israelis are tired of the loud talk about the deviant behaviour of Netanyahu and his ministers, their desperate lies, their manipulation and deception of the families of the captured Israelis, their failure to tell the truth, and their tireless beating around the bush, resulting in the spread of a corrupt political culture among them. They have worked on poisoning the media and distorting their minds, which will ultimately lead to a collective collapse.
Throughout an entire generation, Netanyahu has built walls between the Israelis themselves, motivated by a desire to control them, until they reached their bitter fate, and new toxic terms entered their vocabulary, such as “traitor leftists”, “non-Jewish left”, “anti-Zionists”, “Arab lovers” and others.
The “divide and conquer” approach has, under the successive Netanyahu governments, become a way of life for the Israelis, a declared policy, and a working strategy, because he and his team have not stopped inciting and spreading hatred. They see with their own eyes how fear hovers over them, due to their political and personal failures, until it accompanied him while he stood in the dock as a defendant.
Netanyahu and his government’s failures were not limited to the domestic level, but extended to foreign paths, and caused the catastrophic failure in Gaza, and the failure to confront the Hamas attack on 7 October. He has proven through his poor political performance over the years that he has no principles or values, and that he is riding the horse of populism, and after he failed to maintain the security of the state. He must leave, this is what the Israelis themselves demand, and this is what we expect to happen after the cessation of the war in Gaza.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20250106-the-countdown-begins-to-topple-netanyahus-government-and-remove-him-from-the-political-scene/
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Syria New Leaders Face Economy Decimated By War, Sanctions
January 6, 2025
Syria’s economy has been decimated by more than a decade of civil war and sanctions that have severed it from the global financial system.
Below is a round-up of the current state of the economy and how the conflict has reshaped trade and government finances.
What is the state of Syria’s economy?
The economy more than halved between 2010 and 2021, official Syrian data cited by the World Bank in spring 2024 showed. However, this was likely an underestimate, the Bank said. Its calculations using night-time light emissions – a proxy for overall economic activity – indicated a sharper 84 per cent contraction between 2010 and 2023.
The World Bank reclassified Syria as a low-income country in 2018. More than 90 per cent of the 23 million Syrians live below the poverty line, according to UN agencies.
World Bank data estimated Syria’s economy was $23.63 billion in 2022 – roughly on par with Albania and Armenia, which each have fewer than three million inhabitants.
What’s happened to Syria’s currency?
Syria’s economic crunch worsened in 2019 when neighbouring Lebanon, with which it has extensive economic and financial ties, descended into crisis. Syria then introduced a plethora of exchange rates for different transactions to safeguard access to scarce hard currency.
Following the new rulers’ takeover in December, the Central Bank pledged to adopt an official unified exchange rate.
Central Bank data on Monday showed the official rate at 13,065. That compares to a rate of around 47 to the dollar in March 2011 – as civil war engulfed the country, LSEG data showed. SYP= FX tracking website from Karam Shaar Advisory showed that black market rates soared to 22,000 around Assad’s fall, but on Monday stood at 12,800.
The new government appointed Maysaa Sabrine as Governor of the Central Bank on Sunday – the first woman at the helm in its more than 70-year history.
What are current Central Bank reserves?
The new rulers are working to determine what is left in state coffers.
Caretaker Prime Minister, Mohammad Al-Bashir, said Forex (FX) reserves were very low. Sources told Reuters there are roughly $200 million left in Central Bank vaults, plus 26 tonnes of gold, worth $2.2 billion at current market prices.
That is significantly below the $18.5 billion in reserves estimated by the IMF in 2010 and the three months’ import-cover deemed a minimum safe threshold.
Western governments have frozen hundreds of millions of dollars in Syrian assets since the war began, but the exact size and location of these are unclear.
Switzerland’s government said some 99 million Swiss francs ($112 million) worth of frozen Syrian assets are currently in the country. The Syria Report newsletter estimated in April that £163.2 million ($205.76 million) of frozen assets were in the UK.
Despite the Central Bank sanctions, Western governments allowed Syria to use frozen funds for humanitarian purposes, such as medicine and food.
The new government has said it expects to retrieve up to $400 million in frozen assets abroad to help fund some reforms, including salary increases of 400 per cent for some public sector employees next month.
How have war and sanctions affected trade and the economy?
Dwindling oil and tourism revenues decimated Syria’s exports from $18.4 billion in 2010 to $1.8 billion in 2021, according to the World Bank. Imports also fell, but by a smaller margin – from $22.7 billion to $6.5 billion due to reliance on imported fuel and food.
The widening gap pressured government finances, prompting it to pay for some imports with illicit cash from sales of an addictive amphetamine-like stimulant commonly known as captagon, or from fuel smuggling, experts said.
Captagon production has become the most valuable economic sector, according to the World Bank, which estimates the total market value of the drug originating from Syria as high as $5.6 billion.
What are the energy challenges?
In 2010, Syria exported 380,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil. This source of hard-currency revenue evaporated after the conflict began in 2011. Various factions – including Daesh and Kurdish fighters – seized oilfields, while the latter signed deals with US companies. Sanctions made legitimate exports difficult.
The loss left Syria reliant on energy imports – mostly from allies Russia and Iran. Rachel Ziemba, senior adviser on sanctions with risk consultancy, Horizon Engage, said the roughly 1-3 million barrels of fuel per month Syria had been getting from Iran stopped in late December as Tehran pulled back.
She added that lack of access to global banking, due to sanctions and the designation of leading rebel group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) as a terrorist organisation complicates commercial fuel purchases.
How has agriculture suffered?
Conflict and drought reduced the number of farmers, damaged irrigation and cut access to seeds and fertilisers.
Agricultural production sank to record lows in 2021 and 2022, with wheat alone falling to a quarter of the around four million tonnes per year pre-war.
Syria imported around one million tonnes of cereal annually from Russia, but flows stopped after the new rulers took control. Ukraine has signalled willingness to supply, but it is unclear how Syria could pay.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20250106-syria-new-leaders-face-economy-decimated-by-war-sanctions/
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Israel’s Pitiless War On Gaza Continues Apace
Chris Doyle
January 06, 2025
Northern Gaza is no more, at least not as a liveable, populated area. This was not an asteroid strike or a tsunami. But such a fate might have been kinder to the nearly 3 million people who have been compelled to undergo deprivations most of us can barely understand.
The Israeli war on Gaza remains pitiless, nowhere more so than the northern part of this enclave.
Israeli leaders declared openly what they were going to do, did it and now promise more. They have made clear that this is irreversible. Palestinians will not be allowed to return. This has been an exercise in ethnic cleansing, as bold and atrocious in design as any on record.
Few times in modern history have such shocking aims been executed with such cold determination. Israeli leaders showed zero hesitation. Not even the International Criminal Court arrest warrant issued against the serving prime minister or the International Court of Justice’s ongoing investigation into whether Israel is perpetrating genocide in Gaza have acted as a partial break.
Some apologists for Israeli crimes have argued, quite falsely, that the initial few months of terrorizing Gaza with carpet bombing was understandable, given the desire for revenge after the Oct. 7 atrocities. But such an immoral argument definitely cannot be trotted out after 15 months, getting on for 500 days. This is not Israel acting in the heat of the moment. It is cold-hearted, premeditated carnage.
Israel tosses out the usual propaganda. Its spokespeople claim that hospitals in northern Gaza were all Hamas command centers and therefore “legitimate military targets.” During the last 15 months, they have made such claims but are yet to provide any substantive evidence. At one moment last week, Israel denied that it was holding Dr. Hussam Abu Safiya, the director of the Kamal Adwan Hospital, only to confirm that it had in fact detained him. His whereabouts, like thousands of others, are unknown. Their fate is unlike the hostages, never mentioned by leaders of the US or EU powers.
Not one single hospital now operates in northern Gaza. Healthcare staff continue to be targeted. The dismantling of the healthcare system here is more than a few notches more severe than in the rest of the Strip.
Aid access is nonexistent for those Palestinians who have not fled. The UN made more than 160 attempts in the last two months of 2024 to reach civilians in northern Gaza, with “almost zero access.” The winter rains are flooding makeshift tents and the freezing weather is lethal, not least for newborns. Israel still blocks fuel and electricity. Disease is spreading, with ever greater contamination of the residual water.
Settler groups dream of colonizing this area once again. Yet already the Israeli military is healing itself. Its soldiers get a military hotel in northern Gaza, flush with all the luxuries of massages, pedicures and a barber. As Gazans die of thirst, Israeli soldiers can make use of a desalination site to provide them water from the sea.
The Israeli message is: “We can do whatever we want and there is nothing that you, the Palestinians, the UN and the human rights community, can do about it.”
Yes, Israel has banned journalists from entering Gaza, but it was never too concerned about the footage that has emerged. It serves a purpose. Palestinians understand those images and their message in full. Israel knows it can browbeat the Western media to downplay them because these videos and photos were taken by local Palestinian journalists and are, in their view, invalid.
Where to now? Will pulverizing the north suffice? Possibly for some Israeli leaders, given that the rest of Gaza has had 75 percent of the same treatment already. But not for others. Eight members of the Knesset have already penned a letter to the defense minister demanding that Israel destroy all sources of water, food and energy for Palestinians in Gaza. They argue that Israel should do to the rest of Gaza what it has been doing to the north. One of the signatories was Ariel Kallner, chair of the all-party Knesset group on Israel-EU relations. Who would bet against him still having a warm welcome on his next visit to Brussels?
For Benjamin Netanyahu, ethnic cleansing is a negotiating card. Ceasefire talks continue, but the Israeli position is clear. If Hamas does not cave in to each and every one of Netanyahu’s demands, the next area of Gaza can be lined up for exterminatory-level force.
For Israel’s allies, it is simply business as usual. Ever generous, US President Joe Biden leaves office with a parting gift of an $8 billion arms deal for Israel. Congress will undoubtedly wave it through.
In an imaginary world that treats Palestinians as humans, what is happening in northern Gaza alone would be universally condemned as genocide. Ministers would be tripping over themselves to condemn the ethnic cleansing. Israel would be on the receiving end of the same cold, deadening hand of sanctions as Russia. That it is not is precisely why this horror continues.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2585441
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URL: https://www.newageislam.com/middle-east-press/israel-iran-nuclear-assad-syria-war-gaza/d/134261
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