Middle East Press on: Israel, Fantasy, Iraq, Syria, Gaza, UN, Damascus: New Age Islam's Selection, 12 December 2024
By New Age Islam Edit Desk
12 December 2024
What The New Middle East Chessboard Means For Israel
How To Preserve Free Expression On Ever-Divided Campuses
From Fantasy To Reality: The Vision Of An Israel-Iraq Highway
The Fall Of Assad Does Not Mean Syria, The Middle East Is A Safer Place
What Challenges Are On The Horizon Of The New Syria?
As Life Continues To Be Erased In Gaza, The UN Has No Excuse For Its Silence
Gaza’s ‘Lost Generation’ Faces Bleak Future
Peace Be Upon You, Damascus
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What The New Middle East Chessboard Means For Israel
By Catherine Perez-Shakdam, Stepan Stepanenko
December 12, 2024
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, after more than a decade of civil war, represents a geopolitical rupture. His survival depended on complex alliances with Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. Now, questions arise as to whether this downfall was part of a broader deal—one that granted Assad safe passage, allowed Russia to refocus amid global negotiations, and reshaped the regional order.
With Assad gone, Iran’s influence has suffered a decisive blow. The offensive that toppled his regime also weakened Hezbollah and isolated Iranian forces, removing a linchpin of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.” Yet this strategic gain for Iran’s opponents does not guarantee stability. Rival factions are competing to fill the vacuum, leaving Israel confronted with new and unpredictable threats.
Israel faces a profoundly altered security environment. While the demise of a longstanding adversary offers a brief reprieve, the ascent of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham near its northern frontier is alarming. HTS, rooted in al-Qaeda, has seized major territories and proclaims ambitions extending beyond Syria’s borders.
Lacking prospects for Western reconstruction aid due to its extremist credentials, the rebel group may consolidate power through radicalism, openly threatening Jerusalem and Mecca. This places Israel and Saudi Arabia in the crosshairs of a group adept at exploiting chaos. For the next US president, Donald Trump, who vowed to end foreign entanglements, the rise of HTS complicates any aspirations for disengagement.
Russia’s position in Syria is also uncertain. The hasty withdrawal from several bases amid HTS’s advance raises the question: Will Moscow abandon its prized naval facility at Tartus? Such a retreat would dent President Vladimir Putin’s prestige and influence, especially when forced out by a group far less equipped than Ukraine’s Western-backed forces.
Having pounded anti-Assad factions for years, Russia cannot expect accommodation from HTS. Losing Syrian footholds undermines Russian power projection, not just in the Middle East but across Africa, where thousands of its mercenaries rely on Syrian logistics. With the Ukraine war and sanctions constraining Moscow’s options, the loss of these assets could create openings for China and Iran to expand their influence in Africa.
Competing agendas
WITHIN SYRIA, the battlefield has fragmented into competing agendas. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), aligned with secular and democratic principles, see a chance to consolidate autonomy but remain threatened by Turkey and its Syrian National Army proxies. Ankara, determined to prevent Kurdish self-rule, might deepen its involvement, risking costly entanglements and tension with both Jerusalem and Washington. Meanwhile, remnants of Iranian-backed militias persist, ensuring Tehran remains a latent threat to Israel, even if weakened.
Israel, aware of these shifting dynamics, is already moving to secure its northern border. Recent operations aimed at creating a buffer zone in southern Syria reflect a strategic priority: pre-empting extremist advances and deterring Iranian proxies. This approach underscores a broader effort to recalibrate security postures across the region.
Jordan, traditionally seen as a moderate ally in the region and a partner of the West, has long cultivated a delicate balancing act in its domestic and foreign policies. However, Amman’s willingness to tolerate, and at times bolster, Islamist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood reveals a more pragmatic and troubling strategy.
For decades, the Hashemite Kingdom has leveraged the Brotherhood as a political counterweight to internal dissent, while its tacit acceptance of Hamas’s presence has been similarly calculated. Jordan views Hamas—a proxy of Iran and an implacable enemy of Israel—not only as a buffer against domestic unrest but as a tool to exert pressure on its neighbor and rival.
This dual strategy comes at a cost. By allowing Hamas to maintain influence, Jordan has indirectly reinforced Iran’s regional ambitions. Amman’s approach also aligns with its historical preference for maintaining an “enemy within reach,” believing that limited engagement with such actors can insulate it from more severe threats. However, this calculated ambiguity risks backfiring. As Iran’s influence in Syria recedes and jihadist groups surge along Jordan’s northern border, the kingdom may find itself ill-equipped to address the blowback from its own strategies.
Jordan’s tacit support for Hamas undermines regional stability and places it at odds with Israel’s efforts to contain Iranian proxies. Furthermore, as jihadist factions seek to exploit Syria’s porous borders, Jordan may soon face a scenario where its attempts to placate Islamist actors only serve to embolden them. The Hashemite Kingdom’s gamble with the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas is becoming increasingly precarious, raising the stakes for both its domestic stability and its relations with Israel.
Syria’s collapse also reverberates through neighboring states. Lebanon, economically fragile and politically beholden to Hezbollah, faces further destabilization as Tehran’s influence wanes. Without reliable Syrian support, Hezbollah may intensify its grip on Lebanon’s politics, worsening an already dire crisis.
Jordan, long a haven of relative calm, must now defend against the spread of jihadist groups seeking to exploit porous borders. The Gulf states, having tentatively normalized ties with Assad, must reassess their strategies in a landscape where Iran has been weakened, but extremist threats persist. This upheaval signals to other autocratic regimes the limits of relying on foreign patrons and brute force to maintain authority.
For Israel, the priority is to leverage the strategic openings created by Assad’s fall while mitigating the risks of emboldened extremists. It must reinforce intelligence capabilities, neutralize remaining Iranian proxies, and deepen diplomatic engagement with partners like Jordan and the Gulf states. Such efforts are essential in a region now defined by shifting alliances, fragmented authority, and the uncertain role of global powers.
The collapse of Assad’s regime marks the start of a new and volatile chapter. Whether this upheaval leads to a more stable order or plunges the Middle East into further discord depends on the strategic choices that regional and international actors make now. For Israel and its neighbours, the challenge is to navigate an environment reshaped by the simultaneous weakening of Iran, the unsettling rise of jihadist actors, and the uncertain recalculations of global powers.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-833035
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How To Preserve Free Expression On Ever-Divided Campuses
By Josef Kay
December 12, 2024
When American Jewish community members established Brandeis University in 1948, they sought to provide Jewish students, along with people from all marginalized communities, with a refuge from the discrimination embedded in the college admissions process.
Given the institution’s awareness of American Jews’ vulnerability, it should be no surprise that former college president Ron Liebowitz immediately and unequivocally condemned the October 7, 2023 Hamas terrorist attacks.
Liebowitz stands out among his counterparts both for denouncing these atrocities and for his navigation of the challenges since that horrific day. I hope that interim president Arthur Levine continues Liebowitz’s legacy.
The administration has protected Jewish students and preserved the namesake’s core value of free expression on a divided campus. University administrators across the country should take note and replicate this successful model or risk tolerating a hostile environment against Jewish students, faculty, and staff.
Due to the university’s unique history, it is easy to dismiss the administration’s approach as unreplicable in other contexts. Many people falsely assume the school is a majority Jewish university and uniformly Zionist.
The non-sectarian university’s undergraduate population is about 35% Jewish. Within this vibrant community, there is a wide range of opinions toward the Middle East, just as there is across the whole student body.
Brandeis University lived up to its values by becoming the first private university in the country to derecognize its Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) chapter. Liebowitz clearly articulated how this group violated basic human decency by proudly supporting Hamas, a terrorist organization that seeks the genocide of the Jewish people.
Simultaneously, he expressed empathy with Palestinian pain and correctly differentiated Hamas from the Palestinian people.
Throughout the past year, Liebowitz made clear that community members could voice solidarity with Palestinians during the ongoing war responsibly. In anticipation of an anti-Israel demonstration, the administration sent an email on November 10 explaining that calls for “violence, death, or annihilation” are not permitted and listed some examples of go-to anti-Semitic eliminationist chants.
In contrast, peer institutions that did not adopt these policies enabled an environment of antisemitism. On October 8, 2023, MIT student agitators blasted an email to undergraduate students that demonized the Jewish state a day after Hamas massacred 1,200 people and kidnapped more than 250 men, women, and children.
What counts as antisemitism?
In her congressional testimony, MIT President Sally Kornbluth failed to unequivocally say that calls for the genocide of Jews violate campus policies. When a disruptive encampment emerged last spring, the university dragged its feet for weeks before enforcing its campus guidelines.
Meanwhile, Brandeis’s vice president for student affairs, Andrea Dine, and two colleagues wrote a joint email last spring. They explained that protests would be permitted exclusively in specific spaces, and they explicitly banned “occupying or blocking access to buildings” and setting up “outdoor encampments.”
Efforts like these helped the school maintain a safe, quiet, and productive end to the spring semester.
Unfortunately, the school’s policies were not consistently respected. Last March, students from unrecognized clubs, including SJP, hosted an unauthorized gathering. At the event, they desecrated the Jewish mourning prayer to glorify terrorism.
Attendees recited kaddish yatom, the mourner’s kaddish, for all Palestinians who have died since Israel’s founding and thereby failed to distinguish between tragic civilian deaths and those of terrorists.
While these acts are deeply unfortunate, Brandeis administration’s policies ensure events like these are the exception, not the norm. Given the administration’s success at creating a healthy campus environment, it should come as no surprise why Jewish students still feel safe at our school.
It is too easy to excuse the lacklustre responses toward campus antisemitism as the product of an impossible balancing act for administrators to navigate. The steps Liebowitz made – from derecognizing the SJP to clearly explaining when free speech crosses into hate speech to banning encampments – are tools that are available to university presidents across the country.
It is not a matter of ability but rather of moral clarity and courage that has set our school apart from its peers.
The noncommittal approach taken at other universities has failed to heal the campus communities, let alone preserve the befuddled administrators’ careers.
Those who seek communal healing from the chaos that antisemitism has brought upon university campuses should call for administrations to follow Brandeis’s lead by employing former president Liebowitz’s approach.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-833034
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From Fantasy To Reality: The Vision Of An Israel-Iraq Highway
By Eric Gallagher
December 12, 2024
Imagine renting a car in Tel Aviv and embarking on a scenic road trip through Syria to Iraq. Along the way, you pass prosperous towns bustling with friendly locals, flourishing from billions of dollars in trade between the Mediterranean Sea and the interior of the Middle East.
Crossing the once-sealed border at Majdal Shams in the Israeli Golan Heights—now one of the wealthiest villages in the world—a pipeline under construction catches your eye. It snakes its way from Iraqi Kurdistan to the Port of Haifa, transforming Northern Israel into a vital trade hub rivalling the Suez Canal.
On both sides of the border, amid breath taking landscapes and ancient ruins, groups of tourists, thriving marketplaces, and the sounds of construction herald an era of prosperity enabled by a historic agreement that allows goods and people to move freely, safely, and reliably between Israel and the broader region on the very highway you’re traveling.
This trade corridor wouldn’t just benefit Israel and its neighbours; it would also greatly enhance global economic security and supply chain resilience. By creating competition to transit routes like the Suez Canal and the proposed but temporarily stalled corridor connecting the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean via Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, such a project would add redundancy to critical infrastructure.
What does this mean for the region?
More regional connections mean lower costs, greater economic equity, and less vulnerability to supply chain disruptions—outcomes of enormous importance to US national security in a multi-polar world.
This vision may seem like a distant dream. Yet decades of shifting geopolitical dynamics and Israel’s decisive military achievements against Iran and its “axis of resistance”—culminating in the fall of the Assad regime—have created an unprecedented opportunity for its realization. By leveraging ties with the Syrian Druze and fostering collaboration with Israel’s Kurdish allies, the foundation for this corridor can begin to take shape.
THE DRUZE of the Israeli Golan Heights, once loyal to the Syrian government, have increasingly integrated into Israeli society. This shift, driven by Syria’s brutal civil war and economic devastation, was further accelerated by the October 7 Hamas massacre and Hezbollah’s subsequent attacks on Druze villages like Majdal Shams. In one chilling incident, seven Druze children were murdered while playing soccer, galvanizing the community to embrace Israel for safety and stability.
Separated from their Syrian relatives since 1967, the Syrian Druze now inhabit both sides of the Israeli-Syrian border. Alienated from the Assad regime, they face existential threats from Islamist rebel factions, which view the Druze as heretics and seek to dominate the border region for attacks on Israel. Syrian Druze leaders have increasingly lobbied Jerusalem for protection, recognizing Israel as their best hope for survival. Protecting the Druze is not just a moral obligation—it is a national security imperative for Israel.
To defend their communities on the ground, the Druze have allied with Syria’s Kurds, who control the relatively stable, semi-autonomous Kurdish region in northern Syria. Renowned for their military prowess and liberal values, the Kurds played a pivotal role in defeating ISIS with coalition support. Their female fighters have become global symbols of resistance to extremism.
In neighbouring Iraq, the Kurds—longstanding Israeli partners—remain landlocked and economically stifled by Baghdad and Ankara. For years, Israel was the largest importer of Iraqi Kurdish oil, but Turkey’s closure of the Ceyhan pipeline has left the region in economic limbo. A direct trade route through Syria to Israel would unlock global markets for the Kurds, offering economic lifelines and bolstering their autonomy. The Iraqi Kurds have resisted Iranian influence when it was at its strongest; there is little doubt they would do so again.
To be sure, this vision faces immense obstacles. There is currently no road through the proposed corridor. Constructing one would cost an estimated $30 billion and require significant international investment, likely with US backing. Kurdish infighting and patronage systems tied to cross-border trade and oil revenues would need resolution. Above all, the security conditions necessary for construction would need to be established first.
Yet, the potential return on investment far outweighs these challenges. By connecting Israel to Iraqi Kurdistan, the corridor would foster economic resilience, reduce supply chain risks, and stabilize the region. Israeli expertise in infrastructure development, coupled with Israel’s proven security capabilities, position it uniquely to lead this effort.
THE FUTURE of Syria is uncertain. A united Sunni-dominated government could veto the project. However, Syria is more likely to fragment into autonomous regions, creating opportunities for localized agreements with the Druze and Kurds.
Iran will undoubtedly resist this project. Yet, Israel’s decisive military actions have severely degraded Iranian proxy networks in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. The Kurds have long resisted Iranian encroachment and remain reliable partners in countering Tehran’s aggression.
Turkey’s opposition to Kurdish autonomy is a longstanding challenge. However, Ankara’s deteriorating relations with Israel and the economic benefits of the corridor could eventually temper its objections. The Gulf states, which have deepened ties with Israel, may also exert influence over Turkey and Sunni factions in Syria to facilitate cooperation.
The most immediate threat is the potential for Sunni extremists to dominate Syria’s border with Israel. Jerusalem must act swiftly to prevent this scenario. Protecting the Syrian Druze is critical not just for humanitarian reasons but also to preserve the strategic opportunity for a trade corridor.
This project would bring significant benefits to the global community, creating new trade routes that reduce dependency on choke points like the Suez Canal. Diversifying supply chains would lower costs, increase efficiency, and reduce the risks of disruption. For the US, stabilizing Syria’s Kurdish regions and countering Iranian influence aligns with broader strategic objectives. By investing in this initiative, America can enhance its standing in the Middle East while promoting economic stability and security.
While a land bridge to Iraq may seem improbable, Israel has a history of achieving the impossible. From pioneering agricultural innovation to becoming a global technology hub, Israel has consistently turned vision into reality.
The Druze and Kurds—proven allies who share Israel’s values and enemies—hold the key to this transformative project. The economic, security, and geopolitical benefits would reverberate across the region and the world, fostering prosperity and stability for generations.
As Herzl famously said, “If you will it, it is no dream.” Israel, the US, and the Druze-Kurdish coalition have the chance to turn this dream into a reality. The time to act is now.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-833045
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The Fall Of Assad Does Not Mean Syria, The Middle East Is A Safer Place
By Efraim Inbar
December 12, 2024
The rapid collapse of the Bashar Assad regime in Syria caught everyone by surprise. The swift disintegration of the Syrian military did not leave Syria’s allies, Iran and Russia, sufficient time to intervene effectively on Assad’s behalf. The dramatic turn of events in Damascus dealt a severe blow to Iran’s regional influence after decades in which it had been allied with the Assad dynasty.
The loss of Syria has negatively affected Iran in several ways. It cut off Tehran’s territorial contiguity with Lebanon, controlled by its main proxy, Hezbollah, a Shi’ite terrorist organization. This now hampers Iran’s efforts to rebuild Hezbollah’s military formations, which took a beating from Israel.
Iran also lost one of its avenues for subverting Jordan, which borders Syria. Since Russia and Iran, members of the anti-Western alignment, are the immediate losers in the evolving situation, the developments in the country are a welcome outcome for the United States.
Israel has once again demonstrated that it is a valuable ally. Its air force has left Iran’s skies defenceless. It has almost annihilated Hamas, and it bled Hezbollah, both of which are Iranian proxies. These actions inadvertently triggered revolutionary change in Syria and subsequently the decline of the Iranian-led bloc. This is good news for the West and like-minded states in the Middle East.
Beating Iran to the punch
Israel could do another favor to the West by capitalizing on the developments and attacking Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Preempting nuclearization of Iran is more urgent than before the fall of Syria, because Tehran, according to a recent International Atomic Energy Agency report, has “dramatically accelerated uranium enrichment.”
Iran may decide to expedite its nuclear efforts to compensate for its current weakness and enhance its deterrent power since its proxies have been rendered less relevant. The optimal window for action is the interregnum until president-elect Donald Trump enters the White House. At stake is the nuclearization of the Middle East and the potential collapse of the international Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons if Iran goes nuclear.
Lebanon may now be able to free itself from Hezbollah’s yoke, although its political leaders have not displayed great courage in the past. The country’s political system is suffering from prolonged paralysis that has led it to an economic abyss and widespread destruction.
Yet, the demise of the Assad regime will not turn Syria, nor indeed the Middle East as a whole, into a better place. The assortment of radical Islamist groups that have taken over Damascus has little interest in democracy and human rights.
In Damascus, the tyranny of the Assad dynasty has been substituted by dictators espousing an Islamist agenda, with little tolerance for dissent of any kind. They are the heirs of the fanatical ISIS organization. There are therefore serious concerns about the future of minorities in Syria such as the Kurds, Druze, Alawites, and Christians. The hopes for a political evolution toward a more benign political system are hardly founded.
The worst outcome for the Syrian people is the chaos that may well ensue following Assad’s departure. The ability of the rebels to build a centralized polity instead of a fragmented state ruled by different militias is not self-evident. The political culture of the Arabs in Iraq, Yemen, Sudan, and Libya points toward a sad political trajectory.
The events in Syria herald the ascendance of Turkey in the region. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey has supported the Sunni extremist presence in Syria. It also occupied a long strip of land along and south of the Turkish-Syrian border. In these territories, Turkish banks and post offices operate in a manner similar to that of northern occupied Cyprus. Erdogan, a Sunni Islamist – Turkish style – entertains dreams of Ottoman imperial grandeur.
While formally a part of the Western security structure, Turkey conducts a foreign policy that is often at odds with Western preferences. Turkey applied for membership in BRICS, an anti-Western bloc. Erdogan helped Iran circumvent Western economic sanctions. He is a friend of Qatar, the main patron of the Muslim Brotherhood, and he also backs Hamas, which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the West.
Turkish generals close to Erdogan articulated the vision of an Islamist army attacking Israel. The possibility of having a Turkish-backed Islamist state on its northern border is not an enticing option for Jerusalem.
The weakening of Iran, a historic rival of the Ottomans, inevitably feeds Turkish ambitions and adventurism. Turkish troops are already deployed in Iraq, Syria, Qatar, Djibouti, and Libya. In contrast to most NATO members, Turkey under Erdogan has an appetite for growing influence and is ready to fight.
FIFTEEN MONTHS after October 7, 2023, Israel is in a much better position. The defeat of its enemies is clear and the unintended consequence of its actions – the fall of Assad – changes the regional balance of power. Israel looks strong again. This perception is reinforced by a friendly incoming US administration. Friends and foes alike will treat Israel accordingly.
Israel’s policy should be in sync as much as possible with the current and future American administrations. The interim period until January 20, 2025, allows Israel greater freedom of action. Indeed, Israel has destroyed most of the Syrian military and has improved its defensive posture in Syria.
Military actions should be accompanied by strengthening relations with local actors such as the Kurds and Druze in Syria. Maybe even the Alawites could become partners. Similarly, ethnic politics in Lebanon provide an opportunity for change. In any case, political engineering beyond Israel’s borders is to be pursued with great caution.
Recent developments also provide an opportunity to strengthen and expand the Abraham Accords. The Trump administration will find this more than welcome; a strong Israel, apprehensions about Iran, and a supportive America were the elements that led to the accords.
Unfortunately, Israel has obtained this position only after enduring a costly war initiated by Hamas. This is the price the Jewish state has to pay periodically to survive in a tough neighbourhood.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-833030
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What Challenges Are On The Horizon Of The New Syria?
By Muhammad Hussein
December 11, 2024
Gazing out over his new domain in the capital, Damascus, Abu Muhammad Al-Jolani – otherwise known by his real identity, Ahmed Hussein Al-Sharaa – witnessed the result of a revolution that had toiled through almost 14 long years of suffering, setbacks, betrayals and complex and ever-changing power politics.
It was a revolution he did not start, but which he had carried through on the vehicle that was his group, Hay’at Tahrir a-Sham (HTS), and which seemed to come to fruition at the very right timing. With Russia continuously tied down in Ukraine, Iran significantly distracted with the regional hits it had taken over the past few months and with the Iran-backed groups such as Hezbollah having been effectively incapacitated in terms of regional reach, Assad’s loss of his allies meant the inevitable defeat of his inept and crumbling forces – something that was realistically possible even back in 2012.
Viewing the plumes of black smoke rising over Damascus’s wide expanse following Israeli air strikes, Al-Jolani knew it was a revolution that he must now help transition into the difficult and uphill task of state-building.
The welcome and unexpectedly swift victory by the former rebels swept HTS up – as already the leading authority amongst opposition groups over the past few years – into a clear position of power within Syria, leading to its definite key role in the country’s new government and administration.
That was confirmed when Al-Jolani met with former Syrian Prime Minister, Mohammed Al-Jalali, this week to discuss such a transition of power, resulting in Al-Jalali agreeing to transfer power to HTS’s ‘Syrian Salvation Government (SSG). Now, the new transitional government is being formed by Mohammed Al-Bashir, a prominent HTS figure who has served as the head of the SSG and is a close partner of Al-Jolani.
As of this week, Al-Bashir confirmed that Syria’s caretaker government will be composed of SSG ministers, with this process set to maintain security and state institutions until March 2025. From then on, a “new government will form to achieve the aspirations of Syrian society”, as he put it.
As this transitional government assumes its role over the following days and weeks, it will need to apply the same rapidity of the past two weeks to post-revolution goals, with the most pressing matters now being political security consolidation, political unification and international legitimacy.
Despite their sweeping victory and the waves of relief that have rippled throughout Syria, the worldwide Syrian Diaspora, and many non-Syrians themselves, the former rebels have a myriad of security issues they must turn their attention to. First, there reportedly remain small pockets of Assad sympathisers throughout areas of the country, as well as those who collaborated with that regime on a variety of levels in society, education and security. Although HTS has issued an amnesty for those who worked with the former authorities, it may indeed see the need to ‘purge’ or cleanse the government and security ranks and institutions. Such a move is commonplace amongst new power-holders, but this new administration will likely recognise the suitability of doing so carefully and moderately so as not to repeat the mistakes and extremities of Assad’s regime.
Then there are the Kurdish militias to the north-east and east of the country, which the HTS-led government and security forces may soon have to deal with. Agreements have already been struck between HTS and the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) during the recent offensive, allowing them to come to an understanding. The Syrian rebels also guaranteed the upholding of the Kurds’ rights, iterating the prominent role they play in Syria’s social fabric.
That largely reduced tensions but only relayed the issue to the back-burner, making renewed clashes an eventual inevitability. Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) factions have already advanced against Kurdish positions in the north of the country, and SDF militias have already moved against Arab communities and tribal forces, leading to the dramatic abandonment of the SDF coalition by the Deir ez-Zor Military Council in that eastern Syrian province.
As of Tuesday this week, local Syrians in the province pushed the Kurdish militias out of Deir ez-Zor city, making way for the new Syrian interim government to absorb the territory. Now, HTS-led security forces are currently launching an offensive against the SDF, reportedly under the same banner of the operation ‘deterring aggression’ that they had fought against the late regime.
The coming days will witness how much of an issue that offensive proves to be – particularly with the potential involvement of foreign and regional powers such as the United States and Turkiye – but if it is as rapid as the march to Damascus, it may be over before those players can even formulate a policy.
After all, Ankara will be more than happy to have the Kurdish militia threat eliminated next door, and Washington, despite its backing of the SDF, would decide to settle for the strongest horse in the race as long as it does not greatly impact American regional interests.
In light of the escalation on that front, HTS and its new national government are effectively attempting to unify the country’s territory and populations, with the explicit aim of creating a truly national Syria.
All the signs are present that it is dealing with the issue of political unification by advancing diplomatic measures across the country and even – to the disbelief of many who predicted a crackdown on minorities – striking agreements with Alawite leaders in the coastal regions, who have agreed to recognise the new authority.
Similar agreements could foreseeably be made with leading Kurdish figures after the operation concludes or even while the fighting takes place, in a two-pronged approach not unfamiliar to HTS.
There are also the other Syrian militias in the north of the country that the government will have to turn its attention to, chief amongst them being the SNA and its factions. That could likely be resolved without a fight, however, particularly if the HTS-led authorities strike an agreement with them and their Turkish backers would see the militias’ ranks absorbed into the new Syrian state and security forces.
Another significant issue that the new Syrian administration will confront in the near future is that of international legitimacy. Until now, HTS has been branded as a terrorist group by many Western nations, including the US and the UK, and even the United Nations itself still has the organisation on its terror list. Such a designation – imposed since at least 2017 – currently poses a major obstacle to the new Syrian administration’s formal legitimacy and recognition by the international community.
As with many matters, Al-Jolani has long realised that fact, and has actively let it be known to many media outlets over the past few years that he has distanced himself and his group from their historic ties with Al Qaeda. He has also been presenting a face of openness and tolerance towards Syria’s minorities and diverse makeup, as well as emphasising in recent interviews the importance of state institutions and the separation of powers rather than a one-man rule.
Such attitudes have been years in the making, in an attempt to show diplomats and organisations worldwide that there is an opportunity for the resumption and blossoming of national life in the country. To Western political figures, Al-Jolani and his crew may be ‘Islamists’, but they are not those unrestrained by regional borders and international norms.
HTS, its leadership, and its government are sending a message that Syria will soon be back, open for business, but this time the right kind. Western policymakers still need some convincing, and are biding their time while they still attempt to make sense of the situation. Despite gradual signs that the group may have its terror designations removed, it is currently still too early in the game.
It must not be ignored, however, that all of these steps the new Syrian government is taking can be drastically thrown off by another major challenge looming on the horizon: the occupation of more Syrian territory by an advancing Israeli army in the south-east. Syria is set for still more difficult times ahead but, for now, there is leadership and vision to give Syrians a somewhat more promising future.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241211-what-challenges-are-on-the-horizon-of-the-new-syria/
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As Life Continues To Be Erased In Gaza, The Un Has No Excuse For Its Silence
By Haifa Zangana
December 11, 2024
The International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women — 25 November — was launched by the UN 25 years ago and sees 16 days of international and local activities. This year’s campaign adopted the hashtag #No Excuse, “to draw attention to the alarming escalation of violence against women, to revitalise commitments and to call for accountability and action from decision-makers.”
Around this time in 2021, I wrote an opinion piece in which I concluded, while reviewing the relationship of this occasion to what women are going through in invaded and occupied Iraq. Taking a look at the official activities of international and local organisations reflects the reality of double standards and the application of international law to some countries but not to others.
Here I am, once again, looking at the same occasion to see what the UN has defined as violence against women and what it proposes in order to eliminate it. What is violence? The UN website tells us that violence “can manifest in physical, sexual and psychological forms, encompassing: intimate partner violence, sexual violence and harassment, human trafficking, female genital mutilation, and child marriage.” This is an important definition, were it not for its blatant selectivity in ignoring state violence, which is the most comprehensive against women.
This is the essence of the problem when reading laws and agreements from a local perspective, especially when the great powers that determine the laws find no issue with either committing the “violence” themselves, in the forms of invasion and occupation, as in Iraq; contributing to its commission, in cooperation with racist settler regimes, as in Palestine; or turning a blind eye, while providing economic and political support to oppressive regimes, when the rights of the people, including women, are violated and infringed, and women are treated as if they are creatures, completely isolated from other human beings.
While the role and responsibility of states in committing violence against women could be expressed vaguely in reports by international organisations in previous years, what is happening in Palestine today cannot stand any rhetorical lack of clarity, no matter how its language is wrapped in glittery “humanity”. What is happening in Gaza goes beyond the definition of violence adopted by international and feminist organisations, as it has made the entire world a witness to the most heinous crime against humanity: genocide. Laws, concepts and terminology all fade when it comes to the crime of genocide unless they are accompanied by real action.
Is there a convincing excuse for the UN not to be explicit and clear about what Palestinian women are being exposed to in its statements marking the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women and its definition of violence? If the occasion is concerned with women’s rights, how can we convince women in our countries of the value of human rights and international law while they are living a reality that is getting worse day after day? They are made to feel as if they live and die in another world, far removed from the life lived by women in other countries, especially the countries that control actual decision-making in the UN and international women’s organisations that are in line with their political and economic interests regardless of the gender and age of the victims in our countries.
How can “the other world” understand women’s rights in “our world” when the umbrella of international days for this and that, and other special occasions, has hundreds of holes in it because of the daily bombing that essentially erases women’s existence? How can we explain the celebration of “humanitarian” occasions while the extermination of humanity is ongoing? How can we understand the nature of opposing violence against women when “the other world” is witnessing the real time genocide of Palestinian women, the killing of their children and loved ones, and the dismemberment of them and their lives? What does “eliminating violence against women” mean when women in Gaza listen in shock to those responsible for burials when they are told, “I will put both of your children together in the same grave,” or when they say hollow-eyed, “We have more room in our tent after our children were martyred”?
How can “the other world” — a world which presents Arab women, in all its institutional reports and media outlets, as victims of a (terrorist) man with harsh features, a thick beard and a keffiyeh — understand when it sees a Palestinian man, with a thick beard and keffiyeh, embracing his little granddaughter after her martyrdom, calling her with a broken heart, “Soul of my soul”? Doesn’t “the other world” realise that our world is a man, a woman and a child, all together, and that the soul of the soul is everyone and Palestine resisting the Zionist genocide? Don’t they see how “everyone” is being exterminated, every minute, in our world; that the growl of hunger spares no one any longer; and that the daily meal has been soaked in death?
How many Palestinians need to be killed in Gaza for the world and its international organisations to understand the meaning of “eliminating violence” and do something about it? Are the lives of 44,786 martyrs and 106,000 wounded, mainly women and children, not enough to transform the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women into immediate international action to stop the violence, end the genocide and prevent the further ethnic cleansing of a people whose blood has soaked into their land so deeply?
In the face of these inhuman crimes, aimed at erasing the Palestinian people who are walled in by death, international silence and the complicity of Arab governments, can we still believe that the world is the same; that children are the same; that women’s rights are the same for all women; and that the definition of violence is the same, regardless of who commits it? As life continues to be erased in Gaza, the UN has no excuse for its silence and inaction.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241211-as-life-continues-to-be-erased-in-gaza-the-un-has-no-excuse-for-its-silence/
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Gaza’s ‘Lost Generation’ Faces Bleak Future
Osama Al-Sharif
December 11, 2024
UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini this week made a fresh appeal to the world community to save Gaza’s children from becoming “a lost generation.” He was referring to the fact that more than 600,000 children in the Strip have had no access to formal primary education since October 2023.
Since Israel launched its retaliatory attack on Gaza more than a year ago, it has brushed aside criticisms and denunciations over its deliberate bombing of schools and hospitals. The destruction of Gaza’s infrastructure, such as sanitation and water treatment facilities, is seen as having no military value for Israel.
Doctors Without Borders has described what is happening in Gaza as a “war without rules.” It added that, as of Nov. 5, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, a mere 17 of Gaza’s 36 hospitals remained functional, and only partially so. Eleven field hospitals (five fully functioning and six partially functioning) were operating at that time.
But in northern Gaza, where Israel is forcing tens of thousands of Palestinians to abandon their homes, all vital public facilities, including schools and hospitals, are now on the brink of collapse. Last week, four doctors were killed at Kamal Adwan Hospital in besieged northern Gaza after Israeli forces stormed the compound, killing and injuring dozens of people in the surrounding areas. Israeli troops also forced healthcare workers and patients to leave the facility. According to a statement by Dr. Hussam Abu Saifya, the hospital director, they destroyed critical medical supplies.
The Israeli army has besieged all three remaining hospitals in northern Gaza and they are being targeted daily.
With no access to health or education, more than a million children in Gaza are facing horrific living conditions. Those who are in designated safe areas are facing malnutrition, diseases and a lack of sanitary services. The education system has all but collapsed.
According to Save the Children, about 30 percent of the 11,300 identified child victims in Gaza between last October and Aug. 31 were younger than five, according to a newly published breakdown of the ages of about 34,000 people whose deaths have been verified by Gaza’s Ministry of Health. Of those, more than 700 were aged under 12 months. Another 2,800 dead children have yet to be identified.
In March, Save the Children issued a report that warned of “complete psychological destruction,” adding that “children in Gaza have suffered “relentless mental harm.”
According to the Health Ministry in Gaza, more than 44,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 2023 and at least 17,000 of them are children.
The lost generation that Lazzarini is talking about is now a reality. No one has an idea how this war will end or when. But what is certain is that, even when it ends, more than a million Palestinian children in Gaza will continue to suffer from psychological and physical trauma.
It is almost impossible to imagine how the education system can ever be restored. Israel has destroyed nearly all universities and 90 percent of schools have been either severely damaged or destroyed. The same applies to the health system, which also lies in ruins.
UN experts in April expressed grave concern over the pattern of attacks on schools, universities, teachers and students in the Gaza Strip, raising serious alarm over the systematic destruction of the Palestinian education system.
“With more than 80 percent of schools in Gaza damaged or destroyed, it may be reasonable to ask if there is an intentional effort to comprehensively destroy the Palestinian education system, an action known as ‘scholasticide,’” the experts said. This term refers to the systematic obliteration of education through the arrest, detention or killing of teachers, students and staff and the destruction of educational infrastructure.
Experts, including Israelis, agree that Israel has run out of military targets in Gaza. The systematic bombing of schools and hospitals is instead aligned with political goals: making Gaza unlivable, the displacement of hundreds of thousands, and ethnic cleansing.
The targeting of so-called safe areas, like Mawasi near Khan Younis, has only one goal: terrorizing the civilians, who are primarily women and children.
While the International Court of Justice deliberates on whether Israel is carrying out genocide in Gaza, it is disturbing that the court has remained silent over Israel’s destruction of hospitals and schools and the use of starvation as a weapon, in violation of its provisional order issued in January.
In January, the court found it plausible that Israel’s acts could amount to genocide and issued six provisional measures, ordering Tel Aviv to take all measures within its power to prevent genocidal acts, including avoiding and punishing incitement to genocide, ensuring aid and services reach Palestinians under siege in Gaza and preserving evidence of crimes committed in Gaza.
Israel has targeted UNRWA staff and buildings in Gaza from the onset, knowing full well that the agency provides essential services to hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in the Strip.
Despite living under Israeli blockade for decades, Gaza had among the most developed education and health systems in the region. It is horrifying that the deliberate destruction of both is meant to deny those who survive the war any hope of having access to a decent education or an acceptable health system.
The current Israeli government has taken steps to partition the narrow Gaza Strip and create buffer zones that no Palestinians will be allowed to enter. What was already the most crowded strip of land in the world will become even smaller. How the surviving people of Gaza will manage their lives under such conditions is difficult to imagine.
The lost generation of Palestinians in Gaza will be at the mercy of radicals and opportunists. Israeli atrocities have left indelible scars in the hearts of hundreds of thousands of young Palestinians. How that generation views Israel today and in the future puts the whole narrative of peace-building and coexistence in the region in doubt.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2582688
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Peace Be Upon You, Damascus
Bakir Oweida
December 11, 2024
The protection of Syrian lives and the prevention of harm to innocent civilians of any sect represent fundamental rights for all Syrians — a country historically defined by its ethnic diversity and cultural mosaic. This right doubles as an obligation that now rests on the shoulders of armed group leaders who, in a swift and almost seismic upheaval lasting just a few nights, toppled Syria’s Baathist regime that had clung to power since 1963. The pressing question now emerges: will these new leaders prove they have come to establish genuinely different governance or will the coming days reveal that what they revolted against has merely been reborn with different faces and names?
This question is not without merit. A quick glance at examples like Iraq, Libya and Sudan shows a common thread. In all three cases, despite their distinct circumstances, a significant portion of the population found themselves in an ironic position — comparing the fallen regime they once celebrated overthrowing with a disappointing present reality that delivered the opposite of their hopes, particularly regarding stability, the bedrock of national security and social peace. These comparisons are not about taking sides. If you were to ask people across the globe a simple question: What do you want from life? The answers would largely echo the same theme: physical well-being, peace of mind and inner security. When any element of this triad is uprooted, achieving security within any society becomes nearly impossible.
Now that Syria’s history — and the region’s with it — has turned the page on Baathist rule, with all its merits and flaws, Syria’s future, its people’s fate and the entire region’s trajectory remain uncertain. A crucial question resurfaces: Are we witnessing a replay of Iraq’s example and Libya’s fragmentation or will global power centers and major regional players prevent such a scenario, which could ignite new conflicts within Syria — conflicts likely to spill across borders? Political analysis naturally favors the second scenario. However, uncertainty surrounds the position of Israel’s far-right movement under Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership. This faction might see an opportunity to dismantle Syria’s state institutions and eliminate its military presence entirely, unless the incoming Trump administration takes a restraining stance against Israeli hard-liners in line with White House priorities.
The phrase “Peace be upon you, Damascus” in the title of this article is thus a heartfelt greeting directed first and foremost to Syria and its people, who stand at the center of attention. But the country’s geographical resonance extends to the greater Levant, from Gaza to Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, across the Jordan River and the banks of the Tigris and Euphrates. Truly, has the time not come for real and lasting peace to bless these lands?
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2582682
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URL: https://www.newageislam.com/middle-east-press/israel-fantasy-iraq-syria-gaza-un-damascus/d/134003
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