Middle East Press on Israel, Hamas, Amsterdam, Trump, and Arabs: New Age Islam's Selection, 09 November 2024
By New Age Islam Edit Desk
09 November 2024
The Day After and Israel's Path to Reclaiming Its Global Standing
Israeli Football Hooligans Bring Culture of Genocide to Amsterdam
Israel Cannot Work With an Organization That Enables Hamas Activities and Terrorism
Evacuating Pogrom Victims: One Man's Account of Picking up Terrified Israeli Soccer Fans
Like America, Like Israel: Six Takeaways from Trump's Win
What Arabs Should Expect From the New White House
Painful Transition to a New Order That Does Not Yet Exist
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The Day After and Israel's Path To Reclaiming Its Global Standing
By Tal Been
November 9, 2024
The death of Yahya Sinwar at the hands of IDF soldiers on October 17, 2024, marked a pivotal moment in Israel’s ongoing battle in Gaza. A year after Hamas’s brutal assault on Israel, which claimed approximately 1,200 lives, Israel has effectively dismantled the entirety of Hamas’s leadership – a primary objective of its campaign.
This achievement signals a critical step in restoring both Israel’s security and its deterrence power in the region. For a brief period, it even seemed that the conflict’s end was in sight. This moment, combined with the potential return of hostages, might finally bring Israel a symbolic victory and allow it to scale back operations in Gaza.
Although the days following Sinwar’s elimination brought the sobering realization that the war was not yet over, the uncertain hours immediately after his death offered a glimpse into the sentiment of the “day after.” More importantly, they underscored that despite extensive discussion, the exact implications of that day for Israel – internally, regionally, and internationally – remain unclear.
To begin reclaiming its global standing, Israel must prioritize three key foreign policy objectives: advancing regional diplomacy, renewing global alliances, and building connections with the next generation.
1. The Saudi opportunity
Before October 7, a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia was within reach. In a September 2023 interview with Fox News, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman stated that “every day, we get closer” to normalization. Although this prospect now seems distant, recent developments in fighting and negotiations – particularly regarding hostages and de-escalation in Gaza and Lebanon – may reopen the door.
Though the Saudi public largely supports the Palestinian cause and has shown declining interest in collaboration with Israel, there is still strong backing for Saudi involvement in a diplomatic agreement to improve Palestinian conditions. Israel should leverage this momentum by making concessions, which would enable Saudi Arabia to achieve a diplomatic win for Palestinians in exchange for normalization.
Though the scale of Israel’s concessions remains up for debate, such a breakthrough would elevate Israel’s economic and security positions in the Middle East and enhance its role as a stable regional power. Establishing a formal military and strategic alliance with the region’s largest country could significantly impact the Shi’ite axis’s operational reach, contributing to Israel’s security.
2. Global alliances
Regional gains alone are insufficient. Israel’s global standing has eroded over decades, and strained relations with Western allies and multilateral organizations hinder Israel’s efforts to secure its national and economic interests.
The longstanding Israeli perception of the irrelevance of international bodies like the UN is outdated in today’s interconnected world. Recent events have shown that without robust support from allies, international bodies such as the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC) can present obstacles to Israel’s security efforts.
Additionally, without US backing in the Security Council, Israel could face calls for immediate withdrawal from the West Bank and Gaza, potentially compromising its security without a durable peace agreement. With US elections and shifting social norms across the West, Israel must forge stronger ties with other influential countries and organizations, such as the World Economic Forum, that impact the UN’s agenda.
Strengthening these alliances will ensure that Israel’s security and economic interests remain a priority for its allies, and further cement its standing as a key democratic ally in the Middle East.
3. Building bridges with the next generation
This erosion in support is also mirrored in public opinion, especially among younger generations in the West. A 2023 Pew Research survey revealed that 56% of Americans aged 18-29 hold unfavorable views of Israel.
Similarly, a YouGov poll shows that, with the exception of Germany, Europeans who follow the Israeli-Palestinian conflict tend to favor the Palestinian cause. In Spain and the UK, for instance, support for Palestine outweighs that for Israel by significant margins, with 31% of Spaniards and 23% of Britons favoring Palestine, compared to 12% and 10% for Israel, respectively.
THESE TRENDS present long-term risks, as younger generations less sympathetic to Israel will eventually hold political power, potentially reviving scenarios of diplomatic isolation and posing economic and security concerns. Reaching younger audiences with Israel’s message requires a targeted approach focused on cultural diplomacy, education, and open dialogue.
Israel must reshape its narrative to align with the social norms of the 21st century and implement long-term planning mechanisms to address its longstanding “PR problem.” This approach would help foster a generation that views Israel through a more nuanced lens, reducing anti-Israel sentiment and solidifying long-term support.
While the challenges ahead are substantial, Israel should leverage the “day after” and take these first steps toward restoring its global standing and building a more secure and respected position on the world stage.
The path forward will require proactive efforts across diplomatic and generational lines, a bold vision for international cooperation, and leaders dedicated to projecting Israel as a democratic, liberal, and Jewish state committed to justice and freedom. These steps will help lay the groundwork, but a full recovery will demand even more sustained and multifaceted efforts over time.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-828083
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Israeli Football Hooligans Bring Culture Of Genocide To Amsterdam
8 November 2024
Human history is full of examples of genocidal acts committed by leaders, states, militaries, and armed groups.
But the genocide unfolding before our eyes in Gaza stands out for its level of meticulous documentation and the speed of information flow. Billions of people around the world receive live, uncensored coverage of what is happening in the besieged enclave, from the perspectives of both victim and aggressor.
As we witness the massive scale of destruction and killing, it is essential to note the development of a "culture of genocide" within Israeli society.
One of its most recent manifestations took place on Thursday, when Israeli hooligans, supporters of the Maccabi Tel Aviv football club, provoked clashes with Dutch youth in Amsterdam. They chanted anti-Arab slogans, tore down Palestinian flags, and ignored a minute of silence for the Spanish flood victims.
It apparently never occurred to these Israeli hooligans that racist chanting and acts of vandalism against private property in a foreign country was unacceptable behaviour, which could provoke the anger of local residents.
The hooligans' mindset aligns with the genocidal culture that has permeated Israeli society since 7 October 2023, allowing Israelis to imagine themselves as being above the law and morality - not only in Israel, but the world over.
The violent chants of Maccabi fans should be understood within the context of a society that continues to justify Israel's genocidal war against Palestinians in Gaza.
Rising violence
These fans are an expression of a culture that is not just prevalent among a handful of racists; rather, it has become routine in stadiums, with chants of "death to Arabs" or "may your village burn" often heard in Israel long before 7 October 2023.
The behaviour of the Israeli fans in Amsterdam was thus nothing new. A recent report by the New Israel Fund found a significant increase in expressions of violence in football stadiums in the 2023/24 season, with incidents rising by 18 percent - a significant increase over the previous year, which had already seen violence and racism reach a decade-high peak.
The real story here is therefore not the racist chants, but the shock of Israeli fans at the realisation that such behaviour is not tolerated outside their country's borders.
This comes at a time when, for more than a year, cultural codes and rituals have been invoked in Israel to promote and encourage genocide, with limited public criticism. Justifications for the killing of Palestinian children and the starvation of civilians in Gaza have received widespread endorsement.
Last month, Al Jazeera published a documentary focusing on social media posts by Israeli soldiers in Gaza who documented their war crimes in real time.
While much of the world was horrified by this material, Israeli society defended the soldiers and attacked critics for questioning Israel’s right to defend itself. Israeli society is trapped in a state of political dissonance, which limits its ability to understand the logical flaws in such arguments.
To understand how we got here, one must pay attention to the nation’s culture of genocide, which is based on a set of beliefs, morals and customs that encourage, justify and even celebrate soldiers’ actions.
Over the past year, we have been exposed to songs, comedy performances, journalistic broadcasts and cultural displays, along with commentary from religious leaders, football players and academics, that has openly promoted genocide, including the killing of children.
Israeli analysts have not held back on calling for the slaughter of tens of thousands of Palestinians, with some saying the army should be killing more people or removing all humanitarian aid from Gaza.
Instead of condemning and denouncing such statements, academics and commentators have philosophised on how to justify starving a civilian population if it refuses to comply with Israeli military orders.
Thus, beyond the horrifying testimonies emerging from Gaza, we must examine the mechanisms at work within Israeli society. In some ways, we are witnessing a collective psychotic episode, with many apparently unable to feel sympathy or empathy over the suffering of others.
Zero accountability
Even worse, this phenomenon is present everywhere in the public sphere. Walking along Israeli streets, and listening to conversations among people of all ages on trains and in public parks, reveals broad underlying assumptions about the war in Gaza, with a collective cry for more death and destruction.
Lifeguards on beaches in Tel Aviv have publicly cheered the deaths of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, while members of the public clapped and raised glasses in a celebratory “toast”. Some residents distributed baklava to mark the occasion. To exacerbate the sense of dystopia, this is all happening in a society where many civilians are armed.
One could argue that Israel’s political and cultural elites are responsible for framing the public mindset, laying the groundwork for this culture of genocide. In addition, the international community has for the better part of a century allowed Israel to act freely, violating international law with zero accountability.
In fact, the world has rewarded Israel for its creativity in developing oppressive mechanisms. Israel’s arms industry has thrived amid the occupation, with Palestinians serving as test subjects.
Israeli universities have grown and flourished, providing infrastructure and research on how to suppress Palestinians, while Arab states have promoted normalisation with Israel.
Israeli society has thus internalised a sense of impunity, safe in the knowledge that it is above the law, with the world’s support. This has fuelled the evolution of its culture of genocide.
Enter Trump
This culture is likely to be reinforced by the return of US President Donald Trump to the White House. It is expected that Trump will continue his country's unprecedented support for Israel's war machine, encouraging the culture of genocide.
The messianic right in Israel was quick to celebrate Trump's victory - not because of future military or diplomatic aid, but because a president like Trump is expected to permit the starvation of Palestinians in Gaza, while turning a blind eye to all the anti-democratic legislation that Israel is passing, aimed solely at harming the Palestinian people.
This includes Israel's ban on Unrwa, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees; the expulsion of families whose relatives have committed security offences; and the disqualification of Arab politicians from holding elected office if they made statements that could be interpreted as supporting an armed struggle.
This war will end one day, but as long as there is no fundamental critique of Israel’s conduct, the culture of genocide - in addition to the devastation it continues to wreak on the Palestinian people - will start exacting a price from Israelis themselves.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/israel-football-hooligans-bring-culture-genocide-amsterdam
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Israel Cannot Work With An Organization That Enables Hamas Activities And Terrorism
By Zina Rakhamilova
November 9, 2024
In 1967, after the Six Day War, Israel expressed willingness to cooperate with the United Nations Relief Works Agency (UNRWA) and did so for 60 years. But now, Israel has finally had enough.
In the early days following the Six Day War, UNRWA and Israel exchanged letters agreeing to cooperate, leading the Knesset to pass legislation covering UNRWA’s protection, movement, and diplomatic immunity.
Fast forward to November 4, 2024: Israel’s Foreign Ministry has officially informed the United Nations that it is ending its cooperation with UNRWA.
This decision comes a week after the Knesset passed legislation barring official contact between UNRWA and the state. Israel has now passed a second bill that revokes the 1967 agreement established through the letter exchange between UNRWA and Israel. In those letters, Israel made it clear that this was a provisional agreement “which will remain in force until replaced or canceled.”
And now, Israel has decided to cancel.
Some argue that it was a mistake for Israel to cut ties with UNRWA without offering alternatives. Critics contend that ending cooperation with UNRWA pulls the rug out from under millions of beneficiaries who depend on the agency’s aid. They argue that this decision risks sowing unrest among Palestinians, worsening the economic crisis in the West Bank, and intensifying the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
However, the reality is that the issues with UNRWA are no longer something Israel can ignore. Although UNRWA is technically an offshoot of the United Nations, it functions largely as a Palestinian organization, one that has been infiltrated and compromised by Hamas. The United Nations has done nothing to address these issues. UNRWA’s problems are extensive, including its employment of known Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives.
UNRWA promotes radical, unrealistic narratives
Even before that, UNRWA was known for promoting radical and unrealistic Palestinian narratives that undermined Israel’s legitimacy. Through UNRWA, Palestinians have been led to believe that their home was not Gaza but Tel Aviv and all corners of present-day Israel. UNRWA has perpetuated Palestinian refugee status, fostering the belief that only as refugees can they and their descendants return to Israel and dismantle the Jewish state.
That alone should have been enough to warrant serious concern. However, the world turned a blind eye to the hatred and incitement found in UNRWA’s educational materials and among its teaching staff.
Just last week, Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister Xavier Bettel confronted UNRWA staff during his visit to Ramallah and condemned the terror glorification in their textbooks, stating, “UNRWA is not neutral if they teach this.”
Finally, Israel cannot, in good conscience, ignore the fact that some UNRWA employees actively participated in the October 7 attacks, including murdering and kidnapping civilians and even holding hostages in their homes. Meanwhile, the United Nations has done nothing to hold the agency accountable.
UNRWA has to go
UNRWA has to go. Israel cannot work with an organization that enables Hamas activities, aids and abets terrorism, and provides shelter to those holding civilians hostage. While it’s essential for Israel to develop an alternative strategic plan for Palestinians to prevent regional instability and security concerns, Israel has every right to proceed with this decision.
What happens next? The UNRWA ban will take effect in three months. This gives Israel enough time to devise a strategic plan in collaboration with other UN agencies and international humanitarian NGOs to facilitate aid to civilians in Gaza.
There is ample opportunity to develop alternatives, but no one should expect Israel to cooperate with organizations compromised by genocidal groups that have openly called for its destruction.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-828078
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Evacuating Pogrom Victims: One Man's Account Of Picking Up Terrified Israeli Soccer Fans
By Bart Schut
November 9, 2024
“I don’t know if I’ll see him again,” says Meital as we get in my car. The fact that she even considers not making it to her son’s bar mitzvah in a few weeks shows how scared the soccer fan from Petah Tikva is.
Meital is one of half a dozen Israelis that I ferry from their hotels to the apartment of Esther Voet, editor-in-chief of the Dutch Jewish Weekly NIW. They are stranded without protection from the Amsterdam police force, or anyone else for that matter.
This is why Voet has called on her extensive Jewish network in the Dutch capital to send me by car all across the city center of the Dutch capital to pick them up.
Throughout the night, more and more calls come in from young Israelis who ask to be evacuated. Some are anxious to leave their hotel rooms and need to be convinced to come down with their luggage, get in the car, and be driven to the safety of Voet’s apartment on one of Amsterdam’s most idyllic canals, ironically a stone’s throw from away from the world-famous Anne Frank House.
At a hotel on Rembrandt Square, two young Israeli men are waiting for me. One is crying. He hugs me when I tell him they’re going to be safe soon. The other one is labeled as a ‘high-value target’ for the assailants since his passport was stolen and put on social media, together with a picture of him in IDF uniform. The hotel entrance can’t be reached by car, so we need to walk 250 meters. The two young Israelis seem understandably nervous, but their mood lightens considerably once we’re on the road.
'The safest country in the world'
At the apartment, it’s slowly getting crowded; the dominant language – through a thick cloud of cigarette smoke – is Hebrew, which, as a non-Jew, I neither speak nor understand.
My next two ‘pick-ups’ are at an upscale hotel on the Amstel, the river that gives the Dutch capital its name. They also ask me if I’m Jewish. ‘Good’, Shlomi says when he hears I’m not, ‘good’. I explain that most Dutch are actually pro-Israel. Parties of that nature scored a hundred seats out of 150 in parliament in The Hague at last year’s November elections.
The behavior of pro-Palestinian demonstrators in Amsterdam was an important factor in the outcome of that election. The majority of the Dutch population didn’t seem particularly charmed by Muslim immigrants calling for the murder of Jews in the streets of the capital and the refusal by the then government to address the problem. Which led to a rightwing landslide in which anti-immigration parties reaped the benefits. Populist Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) became by far the largest for the first time in its history.
When my last two ‘passengers’ are dropped off at Esther Voet’s cozy apartment, the atmosphere is notably more relaxed. In the morning, the Israeli soccer fans we collected will be taken to the airport with help from the embassy in The Hague. They will join almost 3000 others, many of whom will remain stranded for several more days – now finally protected by the police - in what is considered one of the safest countries in the world.
Those days are gone for Israelis, just like they are for the Dutch Jewish community, whose members wonder if they will be next to feel the wrath of pro-Palestinian activists and Muslim youths.
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-828217
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Like America, Like Israel: Six Takeaways From Trump's Win
By David M. Weinberg
November 9, 2024
In this space last week, I correctly predicted a decisive win by Donald Trump in the US presidential elections and warned of a perilous transition in US-Israel relations in the lame-duck days of the outgoing administration.
I hope and assume that Israel already is working with the Trump team to ward-off the worst plans of the wounded posse propelled by US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump can and should declare that when he takes office on January 20, he will act swiftly to overturn any radical departures in US policy away from Israel or towards Iran.
Most important of all for the rebuilding of America’s strategic heft in international affairs and for Israel’s national security – is the return of fear to the US toolbox. Enemies need to fear America, not hear US leaders constantly beg for “immediate ceasefires” and express alarm at the possibility of any “escalation.”
Iran must fear US and Israeli warplanes. Trump must make credible threats of the use of force against Iran’s nuclear weapons program. He must be prepared to arm Israel appropriately for dealing with this danger too.
Just declaring that he will “end” all worldwide wars is misleading and unhelpful. Trump needs to be explicit that America will act with crushing force if its enemies do not understand that a new sheriff is in town.
Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis (as well as Russia, China, Turkey and other bad actors) never took the Democrats seriously. They ignored the Biden-Harris-Blinken-Sullivan squad’s exhortations to deescalate. They did not fear America, and by association they feared Israel less-than-necessary.
This is the first basic takeaway from the US election result. Weakness is bad for America and the Western alliance. It neither deters enemies nor wins elections.
A second takeaway from the Biden-Harris defeat is to eschew the hyperbole of tyranny. Tarring anything your opponent says and does as “fascism” is not credible. Calling your opponent an “existential threat” to democracy and an “existential threat” to every form of liberty and decency does not wash. It usually is an overplay of the political hand. This applies both to those who attack Trump and to those who assault Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
As Melanie Phillips has written elsewhere, progressives who apply this type of character assassination to Trump (just as self-styled liberals do to Netanyahu in Israel) are themselves guilty of contempt for democracy, suborning the constitutional order, bullying, suppressing contrary opinions, and promoting hatred.
A corollary to this political lesson is that the partisan use of lawfare backfires. Using the courts to try to get Trump’s name struck from the ballot or to put him in prison on jerry-rigged charges is a form of self-defeating antidemocratic politics. Similarly, seeking to criminalize Netanyahu for cigars and champagne or media manipulation is a feint that will fail time and time again.
Crafting real policies that resonate with the public
Worse still, and this is a fourth takeaway, is that negative campaigning and ideological flights-of-fancy distract from the hard work of crafting real policy positions that resonate with the public.
Apparently, more Americans felt the Republicans had promising policies on housing, the cost-of-living, employment, immigration, energy, and crime. The Democrats, not so much. Harris offered mainly to “uphold” liberal orthodoxies and “protect” progressive rights. If it weren’t for Trump’s many liabilities, and based on the issues, the Republican victory would have been even more overwhelming.
In Israel, where security is almost the only issue on which governments rise and fall, negative campaigning and ideological flights-of-fancy similarly have distracted the Left from the hard work of crafting convincing alternative security policies to those of the Right.
For all Netanyahu’s faults and failures, Likud has been clear for almost three decades about preventing runaway Palestinian statehood and countering Iranian hegemony. Left-of-Center political parties have little different to suggest; only patter about personal morals, dictatorial predilections, and democratic values. All this “soft” stuff is important, but insufficient when running for office to lead a country with Israel’s concrete challenges.
A fifth takeaway is that faking temperance and trying to be all things to all people does not work. Having clear principles and positions, no matter how controversial, does.
Harris’s newly adopted “synthetic centrism” on all economic and social matters (– a bull’s eye George Will witticism) ran contrary to her entire, radical public career prior to July. It wasn’t authentic.
Similarly, Harris lost the support of both American Jews (in New York) and American Arabs (in Dearborn) because she tried to butter-up each sector with implausible, contradictory promises.
She promised to always uphold Israel’s “right” to defend itself but also to push Israel into “rapid” retreat from Gaza and to force it to fight within the bounds of international law that is uniquely warped for the purpose of crippling Israel.
She touted the “justice” of Israel’s war against Hamas but then complained publicly every day about humanitarian supplies to Palestinians and “asked hard questions” about America’s supply of weapons to Israel.
She decried harassment of Jewish students on campus but also shoehorned Islamophobia into every statement about antisemitism and said that anti-Israel and anti-American protesters have legitimate concerns and the “right” to be heard.
And of course, you cannot be the “president of joy” (as Bill Clinton ridiculously dubbed Kamala) and the candidate of hysteria (“fascism!”) at the same time.
A sixth lesson drawn from the just completed US presidential campaign relates to the media. The legacy media requires complete gutting and rebuilding. It served as no less than the crude propaganda arm of the Democratic Party.
First, the major networks and newspapers gaslighted Americans, telling them that Biden was compos mentis, of sound mind. Dr. Michael Doran: “When that failed spectacularly [remember Biden’s debate meltdown?], the media gaslighted Americans by telling them that Kamala Harris was a person of substance and not the puppet of Obama.” And mainstream journalists failed to ask her tough, actual policy questions in even a single interview.
Here in Israel too, the six main television channels, radio stations, and news websites, and all but one major newspaper, aggressively and unabashedly drive protest against Netanyahu on all issues, at all times. This week, they literally exhorted Israelis to flood the streets to protest the sacking of the defense minister; nay, they demanded that Israelis do so.
Complete gutting and rebuilding – comprehensive teshuva, repentance – of the Israeli media landscape is required for the health of Israeli democracy. Like America, like Israel.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-828087
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What Arabs Should Expect From The New White House
Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy
November 08, 2024
Arab countries face the task of reevaluating their expectations and strategies for dealing with a new Donald Trump administration in the White House.
During his previous term, Trump reshaped many aspects of US foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East, adopting an unconventional approach focused on transactional alliances and strict stances towards Iran, while moving away from traditional diplomacy. With his return, Arab leaders are considering whether will revisit his previous policies, or adjust to the evolving geopolitical landscape.
Several issues are expected to be high on his agenda, including the Gaza conflict, Israeli military actions in Lebanon, and the Iranian nuclear program. Trump’s first term marked a dramatic shift from the approaches of his predecessors, emphasizing an “America First” policy that prioritised US interests. This led to significant changes in the way the US interacted with allies and adversaries in the Middle East, creating both opportunities and challenges for Arab countries.
Perhaps Trump’s most influential legacy in the Middle East was the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. These agreements were designed to foster economic cooperation and promote peace through new alliances with Israel. While they were hailed as a historic step toward stability, some viewed the accords as focusing more on economic gains than addressing core regional issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Critics argued that sidelining the Palestinian cause could lead to long-term instability in the region.
Trump’s approach to Iran was central to his Middle East policy. He withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the Iran nuclear deal established under Barack Obama, and imposed sweeping sanctions on Iran in an attempt to limit its regional influence. Although some Gulf countries supported this strategy, it heightened tensions and increased the risk of conflict. The assassination of Gen. Qassem Soleimani and the subsequent rise in hostilities underscored the fragile state of affairs.
Trump also frequently questioned the necessity of maintaining a large American military presence in the Middle East, expressing a desire to reduce US involvement in conflicts that he viewed as not directly tied to American interests. In 2019, he ordered the withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria. This raised concerns among US allies and prompted many Arab leaders to question the reliability of American military support, and to explore alternative security arrangements.
Trump’s policies strongly favored Israel, such as moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. His “Peace to Prosperity” plan was widely criticized by Palestinians, who viewed it as biased and dismissive of their aspirations. By prioritizing Israel’s strategic interests, Trump’s administration diminished America’s role as a neutral mediator in the conflict, further polarizing an already divided region.
With Trump back in office, there are key areas where Arab countries might see continuity in his policies, while other areas may require adjustments to align with the evolving geopolitical environment.
Trump has expressed interest in expanding the Abraham Accords to other Arab states. Normalizing relations with Israel could present significant economic opportunities for these countries, particularly in technology, tourism, and defense. However, the lack of progress on the Palestinian issue might provoke a public backlash in many Arab countries where support for Palestinian rights remains strong. Balancing these opportunities with public sentiment will be a delicate task for Arab leaders.
Trump may also pursue further reductions in the US military footprint in the Middle East, relying on targeted operations rather than large-scale deployments. This would require regional countries to strengthen their defensive capabilities and perhaps form new alliances to manage their security independently. A reduced US presence could also encourage greater intervention from other global powers, such as Russia and China, whose growing influence in the region presents its own set of challenges.
Trump is well-known for using economic pressure as a foreign policy tool, and this could extend to Arab oil-producing countries. He may press Gulf states to adjust their oil production to meet global market demands, impacting the region’s economies. While Trump supports US energy independence, the interconnectedness of global markets ensures that Arab oil producers will remain integral to his economic strategy.
Trump’s re-election is expected to have major implications for the Middle East. During his campaign, he hinted at “peace through strength” and promised Arab and Muslim leaders that he would end conflicts if re-elected. Many Arabs feel that Biden, as a Democrat, was less effective in pressuring Israel’s prime minister to halt military action in Gaza, while Trump may wield more influence and respond to requests for restraint. Across the Arab world, Trump is perceived as a pragmatic businessman who prioritizes economic stability and views Middle Eastern stability as essential for fostering economic growth. Gulf states, in particular, believe that development and improved relations cannot flourish amid constant conflict. As a result, cooling tensions in Gaza and Lebanon is seen as a key objective for Trump’s administration.
Arab leaders also expect Trump’s strong relationship with GCC countries to be leveraged in influencing Benjamin Netanyahu. Rather than public reprimands, Trump is likely to engage in strategic bargaining, offering broader normalization with key Arab states in exchange for specific concessions by Netanyahu. Such an approach would align with Trump’s transactional style of diplomacy.
The Middle East peace plan introduced during Trump’s first term and championed by his son-in-law Jared Kushner remains a contentious issue. While its details were never fully disclosed, there were indications that it moved away from the two-state solution long considered the foundation for peace. The plan proposed a Palestinian capital in “parts of East Jerusalem,” connected by modern transport infrastructure, including a high-speed train linking the West Bank and Gaza. However, the lack of consensus on this plan continues to hinder progress.
One thing is certain: Trump’s policies will primarily be driven by what he perceives as America’s interests.
Trump’s policies in the Middle East present both opportunities and challenges. Arab leaders will need to navigate these dynamics cautiously, safeguarding their interests while seizing potential advantages. Marginalizing the Palestinian issue without addressing core concerns may exacerbate tensions and fuel public dissent.
As Trump prepares for his second term, the Arab world can expect policies that largely mirror his previous approach, including a hard line on Iran, reduced US military involvement, and a focus on economic agreements. While these policies present significant opportunities, they also carry risks related to regional stability and security.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2578568
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Painful Transition To A New Order That Does Not Yet Exist
Hassan Bin Youssef Yassin
November 08, 2024
I have said for some time that we have entered an age of confusion and also an age of nihilism, in which everything we were once used to and everything we once took for granted has been transformed.
Particularly in the West, political systems seem to be breaking apart at the seams, no longer offering the people the answers they need. One need only look at the record low figures of trust that citizens place in their governments to understand that new modes of thought and expression have become necessary and are indeed already developing outside of the usual institutions. We are seeing the old world disintegrate in front of us, with old ideologies becoming meaningless.
To many, this looks like nihilism meeting helter-skelter. What we are really seeing, I believe, is a painful transition to a new order that does not yet exist, but that will better answer people’s needs and expectations in this modern era.
We like to summarize the history of humanity through a succession of ages, from the Stone Age and Bronze Age to the Renaissance and the Industrial Age. The age we are moving into has clearly been greatly influenced by technology, providing immediate access to information and instant communication with every human being on Earth, while transforming almost every aspect of our lives and, increasingly, the functioning of governments, finance and even militaries.
This has created upheavals throughout the world, putting us all on a different timeline to what we are used to. As a result, we as people, but also governments, must adapt to be nimbler, to respond and to adjust more rapidly. When we do not adapt quickly enough, we need a jolt, a stimulus to make us conscious of what is changing around us and that we need to catch up to.
We clearly need a jolt to shake us up and find ways to better deal with the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Ukraine, as well as the societal upheaval around the globe. The reelection of Donald Trump is one of those jolts, shaking us up and reminding us that the old model is no longer working or adapted to the needs of the people.
An older lady interviewed on television left a big impression on me the other day. She was a lifelong Democrat and liberal who told the interviewer she had voted for Trump. When asked why, she responded simply that he talks the same way she does. Most politicians today are viewed as being particularly disconnected from the real world and from real people’s lives, so immersed in the political games they play that they no longer realize what world they are a part of. While many thought Trump’s reelection impossible, his rejection of the old elites and the old order made him impossible to ignore.
There remain a great many people who cannot identify with someone like Trump. Through the ages of great thinkers and philosophers, from Aristotle to Al-Mutanabbi to Jean-Jacques Rousseau, we have received a great deal of wisdom and leaders able to help their people move forward. Today, however, we are not in an age of construction but rather one of deconstruction, which must necessarily come first.
At such a time, perhaps we do need someone who can cut corners and make deals, to get us through this difficult phase faster. When I look at the incredible transformation of Saudi Arabia over recent years, I believe it was our leaders’ ability to stop listening to old ideas and old habits, their ability to look at problems more practically, that made all the difference. We should not allow ourselves to be mental prisoners of old systems or of the wishes of narrow interest groups. We need to break through the ceiling to get some open air and light.
It is understandable for us to be fearful when seeing the institutions we had established collectively, such as the UN and its Security Council, lose their purpose and relevance, much like many other political institutions of the West. But instead of mourning a world that no longer exists, perhaps we had better try to understand the changes underway today and find new answers and solutions to find what actually works.
That is how we move past the nihilism meets helter-skelter that many are feeling today. I will leave the final words to Desmond Tutu, who wisely reminded us that “hope is being able to see that there is light despite all of the darkness.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2578571
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URL: https://newageislam.com/middle-east-press/hamas-amsterdam-trump-arabs-israel/d/133661
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