Middle East Press on: Diplomacy, Israel, Palestinian, Settler: New Age Islam's Selection, 18 December 2024

 

By New Age Islam Edit Desk

18 December 2024

A Constructive Role: Can Ireland Move from Division to Diplomacy with Israel?

10 Dilemmas of A Palestinian State, 10 Questions Middle East Policymakers Forget to Ask

Values Education: How to Solve Israel's Low Academic Achievements

Resolution 1701: Israel's Scam to Withdraw from Lebanon That It Blamed On The UN

It's Time for Israel to Step Up and Show Support for Wounded Soldiers

Israel Has the Chance to Help Reshape Syria and Form Stable Ties

What Does Assad's Downfall Mean for Sisi's Regime?

Will The Syrian Rebels Be Able to Protect Their Victory?

Palestinian Flag Flies from Landmark Bridge in Brazil in Major Act of Solidarity

Genocide In The Name Of Security, According To Israeli Settler Narratives

Gaza War May Soon End, But The Calamity Will Last Years

Courts A Realistic Avenue for Restricting Israel’s Arms Supply

Will The Lebanese Frog Jump Out of the Pot?

Syria’s Future Will Be Decided by A Correct Reading of Developments

Press Freedom the Latest Victim of Israeli Government’s Vitriol

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A Constructive Role: Can Ireland Move from Division to Diplomacy With Israel?

By Jpost Editorial

December 18, 2024

Was Israel right to close its embassy in Ireland this week?

“Ireland is one of the most anti-Zionist countries in the Western world,” Ireland’s Chief Rabbi Yoni Wieder told The Jerusalem Post’s Editor-in-Chief Zvika Klein on The Jerusalem Post Podcast in May.

“It really plays out on so many levels of society,” he explained. “In the government, the opposition parties, the media, schools, and universities. And while we’re very grateful there hasn’t been a lot of violence for the most part – definitely compared to what we’ve seen in other countries – there have been extremely strong anti-Zionist sentiments, and the criticism of Israel is disproportionate to what we see in other countries.”

The World Jewish Congress says, based on 2023 figures, that there are some 2,700 Jews living in Ireland, some of them Israelis. It was in May that Israel recalled its ambassador in Dublin, Dana Erlich, after Ireland joined Spain and Norway in unilaterally recognizing a Palestinian state. In November, the Irish parliament passed a nonbinding motion declaring that “genocide is being perpetrated before our eyes by Israel in Gaza.” The final straw came last week when Ireland announced its support for the South African lawsuit against Israel at the International Court of Justice in The Hague, accusing Israel of genocide against the Palestinians.

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar decided to take strong action, and on Sunday he announced the closure of the embassy due to the “extreme anti-Israel policy of the Irish government.” He said: “The antisemitic actions and rhetoric that Ireland is taking against Israel are based on delegitimization and demonization of the Jewish state and on double standards.”

Not everyone agreed with the decision. Opposition leader Yair Lapid slammed Sa’ar, accusing him of taking the wrong approach. “The decision... is a victory for antisemitism and anti-Israel organizations,” Lapid wrote on X. “The way to deal with criticism is not to run away but to stay and fight.”

Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris called Israel’s decision “deeply regrettable.” He wrote on X: “I utterly reject the assertion that Ireland is anti-Israel. Ireland is pro-peace, pro-human rights and pro-international law.” For his part, Irish Foreign Minister Micheál Martin said the two countries would continue to maintain diplomatic relations and there were no plans to close Ireland’s embassy in Israel.

Not everyone agreed with the decision. Opposition leader Yair Lapid slammed Sa’ar, accusing him of taking the wrong approach. “The decision... is a victory for antisemitism and anti-Israel organizations,” Lapid wrote on X. “The way to deal with criticism is not to run away but to stay and fight.”

Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris called Israel’s decision “deeply regrettable.” He wrote on X: “I utterly reject the assertion that Ireland is anti-Israel. Ireland is pro-peace, pro-human rights and pro-international law.” For his part, Irish Foreign Minister Micheál Martin said the two countries would continue to maintain diplomatic relations and there were no plans to close Ireland’s embassy in Israel.

Rabbi Yitzhak HaLevi Herzog, the father of president Chaim Herzog and grandfather of President Isaac Herzog, served as Ireland’s first chief rabbi, strongly supporting Catholic Ireland’s struggle for independence while condemning all forms of discrimination against members of other faiths, before he made aliyah and became Ashkenazi chief rabbi of Israel.

In his memory, we echo Maurice Cohen’s call on both the Irish and Israeli governments “to seek pathways to rebuild trust and to ensure that avenues for diplomatic engagement remain open. Ireland has the potential to play a constructive role on the global stage, and it is our hope that this potential will be directed toward fostering understanding and reconciliation.”

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-833879

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10 Dilemmas Of A Palestinian State, 10 Questions Middle East Policymakers Forget To Ask

By David Bedein

December 18, 2024

The idea of a two-state solution will no doubt be high on the agenda of the new US administration, following Saudi demands for a Palestinian state as a condition for an upgrade in Saudi relations with Israel.

Here are 10 dilemmas posed by a Palestinian state which are too often swept under the rug, followed by 10 questions which Middle East policymakers too often forget to ask.

Encirclement: Would a proposed state of Palestine not swallow up Jordan, most of whose population is Palestinian, leaving Israel with a hostile state from the Iraqi border to the Mediterranean Sea, with a corridor across the Negev between Gaza to Hebron?

Israeli Arabs: Would the Arabs of the Galilee and the Negev not sue to join the Palestinian Arab state and then demand the fulfillment of UN Resolution 181 – an Israeli withdrawal to the 1947 borders (evacuation of Nahariya, Acre, Nazareth, Jaffa, Ashdod, Ashkelon, Kiryat Gat, and Beersheba)?

Terror: Would a new Palestinian Arab entity disband terrorist organizations? We asked this question before the Oslo process imported the PLO in 1993, which has never renounced terrorism or violence as a means to liberate all of Palestine

Armament: Why would there be any expectation that a sovereign Palestine be demilitarized, since all nation states maintain an armed force as an integral aspect of their new nation?

Refugees: How would Israel deal with expectations of the Arab countries and UNRWA residents who continue to demand that Israel must absorb descendants of Arab refugees and thereby displace thousands of Israelis from places like Haifa, Safed, and Jaffa, and 80 kibbutzim which rest on the property of Arab villages where Arabs left in 1948?

Air space: Would the Israeli Air Force be forbidden to fly over a new Palestinian Arab state?

Alliances: What would prevent a Palestinian state from making military deals with countries still at war with Israel?

Water: Would a sovereign Palestine not carry out pirate drilling, and threaten the mountain aquifer of Judea and Samaria?

Jewish sovereignty: Would the momentum for a Palestinian Arab state not erase the momentum of the right of the Jews to the Land of Israel in international consciousness?

Loss of independence: Would Israel not become a subject to the sponsors of a Palestinian Arab state – today, known as the Quartet – the US, EU, UN, and Russia?

All this leads to questions that Middle East policymakers should ask about a Palestinian state:

Will you ask the Palestinians to clearly recognize the Jewish state of Israel?

Will you demand that the Palestinians finally ratify the Declaration of Principles for Peace signed at the White House in 1993?

Will you demand that the Palestinians cancel the PLO charter from 1964 that calls for the extermination of the Jewish state?

Will you demand that the Palestinians cancel their unprecedented law from 2015 which assures a salary for life for anyone who murders a Jew?

Will you demand cancellation of the new PA and UNRWA school curriculum, based on jihad, martyrdom, and “right of return by force of arms”?

Will you demand the removal of weapons from PA and UNRWA schools?

Will you insist that UNRWA dismiss employees affiliated with Hamas, Islamic Jihad, or Fatah terror organizations?

Will you introduce UNHCR standards to advance resettlement of fourth- and fifth-generation refugees from the 1948 war who have spent seven decades relegated to refugee status? Current UNRWA policy is that any Arab refugee resettlement would interfere with a purported “right of return” to pre-1948 Arab localities.

Will you demand an audit of donor funds that emanate from 68 nations for the PA and UNRWA, with little transparency?

Given the active participation of the Palestine Security Services (PSS) in the current war, will you demand that the US cease its support of the PSS?■

David Bedein has conducted independent news investigations of the PLO and UNRWA since 1987. He is the author of UNRWA: Roadblock to Peace and Genesis of the Palestinian Authority. His research, investigations and films are supported through US and Canadian tax-deductible private donations. https://israelbehindthenews.com/donations/

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-832527

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Values Education: How to Solve Israel's Low Academic Achievements

By Ofek Meir

December 18, 2024

At the beginning of this month, a survey was published revealing a significant decline in Israeli students’ academic achievements. One in five 8th graders scored below average in mathematics and science. The international TIMSS (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study) survey, published by RAMA, the National Authority for Measurement and Evaluation in Education further showed that Israel had dropped from ninth to 23rd place in mathematics and to 25th in science. This is a significant decline over the past 17 years.

This striking data draws attention to the symptom rather than the deep-rooted problem, which, in my opinion, lies in the severe values crisis that Israeli society has been experiencing for several years. This crisis often leaves students, parents, and even educators feeling helpless in the face of the significantly flawed and corrupted values in society, in recent decades.

Israel's values education crisis

Dr. Dafna Hadar-Pekar argues – in her 2013 article written for an applied research in education initiative, “The Relationship Between Socio-Emotional State and Academic Achievement of School Students” – that students’ daily coping with school demands occurs within a social context that has a decisive impact on their actual functioning and achievement.

Israeli students who have grappled with significant social consequences in recent years due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the social divide caused by the attempted judicial revolution, and the trauma of the longest and most severe war in Israel’s history, cannot be emotionally available for routine learning. Given the rising tide of uncertainty, anger, and fear, it is imperative that we invest in social, emotional, and values-based education.

Especially in our complex reality, values education, such as personal responsibility, empathy, and listening, will foster qualities and life skills in our students that will also impact their academic achievements and motivation to learn.

Furthermore, social education that promotes community values and personal leadership can foster an inclusive classroom environment, facilitating cooperation and healthy student-teacher relationships. It also creates a safe space for expressing and receiving diverse opinions, asking questions, and independently exploring complex and sensitive issues that lie at the heart of our nation’s identity.

We see the impact of values education on students’ achievements at the Leo Baeck Education Center: social encounters, community involvement, and personal dialogues between teachers and students create a sense of security and self-efficacy, that encourages them to invest and persevere in various subjects, and to create serious and in-depth discussions in class.

While it is clear that Israel must invest significant resources in narrowing domestic gaps and reducing the disparity with the Western world, this investment cannot be limited to the academic-pedagogical sphere.

Instead, it must encompass innovative pedagogical, cultural, and social approaches that prioritize values and the student’s social context, thereby equipping Israeli students with meaningful social, emotional, and academic tools for their future journeys.

At Leo Baeck, we view education as the text and the community as the context in which learning unfolds. This perspective underscores the interconnectedness of education and community, both of which are ultimately aimed at Tikkun Olam- creating a more just and equitable world.

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-833848

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Resolution 1701: Israel's Scam To Withdraw From Lebanon That It Blamed On The Un

By Anjuli Pandavar

December 18, 2024

Former US president Bill Clinton unwittingly highlighted the greatest double scam ever pulled on the Israeli people: that the Palestinians want a state; and that they negotiated for it in the “peace process.”

According to Clinton: The only time Yasser Arafat didn’t tell me the truth was when he promised me he was going to accept the peace deal that we had worked out, which would have given the Palestinians a state on 96% of the West Bank and 4% of Israel, and they got to choose where the 4% of Israel was. So they would have the effect of the same land of all the West Bank. They would have a capital in east Jerusalem. They would have the – I can hardly talk about this – and they would have equal access, all day, every day, to the security towns that Israel maintained all through the West Bank up to the Golan Heights. All this was offered, including, I will say it again, a capital in east Jerusalem and two of the four quadrants of the Old City of Jerusalem, confirmed by the Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak and his cabinet, and they said, “No.” I think part of it is that Hamas did not care about a homeland for the Palestinians.

Leaving aside Clinton’s confidence that this was the only time Yasser Arafat had lied to him, and that 4% of Israel equates to 40% of the “West Bank,” not 4%, he clearly has not learned the most important lesson from the experience: The Palestinians, not just Hamas, do “not care about a homeland for the Palestinians.” The primary scam is that the Palestinians yearn for a state of their own, and so deeply is this scam etched onto the Western, including Israeli, elites’ psyches, that they even conceptualize Hamas as working against the interests of the Palestinians by jeopardizing their future homeland. Clinton is far from alone in redoubling his efforts in invoking the secondary scam that shields this primary scam: the so-called “peace process” to give them that homeland: I think we’re going to have to essentially start again on the peace process.

It is not clear why we have to restart a peace process that we did not end. So long as the Palestinians can keep this secondary scam going, there is little chance that the primary scam, that they want a state, will be exposed. The obvious paradigm shift is that if they do not want a state and they do not want peace, then, one way or another, they must be neutered. Thankfully, since October 7, 2023, it is a paradigm shift that the vast majority of Israelis now see the need to make. However, the Palestinians are not the only ones who need this scam and keep it going.

The Israeli Left needs the scam just as much as the Palestinians do, and have shown themselves willing to bring down their own democratically elected government to preserve it. The  not wanting a state – leaving aside what they might want instead – presents the Israeli Left with a major crisis. They can only live with themselves if they share the land. These people feel guilty that they have Israel, and they need the Palestinians so they have someone to share the land with and assuage their guilt. It is the Israeli equivalent of Western “white guilt” and “reparations for slavery”/”affirmative action”/”diversity, equity and inclusion,” etc. The Palestinians can thus rely on the very people they’re scamming to keep their double scam going. But this is not the only double scam with which the Israeli people have been hit.

The desperate Israeli government

The second double scam, rolling since August 2006, is UNSC Resolution 1701. This Israeli-drafted resolution has nothing to do with removing Hezbollah from Israel’s northern border and everything to do with helping an Israeli government desperate for a “diplomatic exit” from Lebanon; in other words, a fig leaf under which to escape. The Israeli government knew full well that their withdrawal would be unilateral. When it became obvious to all that Hezbollah was not complying with the terms of the resolution to withdraw to north of the Litani, Israel did nothing to enforce compliance, let alone rescind the resolution (itself an established pattern of behavior – e.g., the non-response to Egyptian violation of the treaty that ended the War of Attrition; and, more recently, Hamas’s refusal to release further captives after Israel, as agreed, increased the aid trucks from two to 200). To be fair, no one complained, except the Christian refugees.

The 1701 scam artist is the Israeli political and security establishment which eventually cast the UN’s non-enforcement as the cause of the “failure” of 1701, while the failure is the resolution itself, that was drafted (by Israel) so as to make a Hezbollah withdrawal to north of the Litani River unenforceable, or else no “agreement” would have been reached. This is quite apart from the fact that a Hezbollah withdrawal to north of the Litani would not make northern Israel safe from missile and rocket attack. The resolution, as a security document, is not worth the paper it is written on. The Israeli diplomat responsible for drafting the resolution, Tal Becker, admitted that “The resolution is far from perfect.” The victims of this primary scam are the Israeli people, who might soon become victims of a secondary scam that shields 1701.

Now that Israel has finally attacked Hezbollah in Lebanon, getting closer to eradicating it, the non-implementation of Resolution 1701 has become untenable. Now the US and others are suddenly very keen on enforcing the resolution by compelling Hezbollah to withdraw to north of the Litani River. This is the secondary scam, for the Litani River is too close to the Israeli border, especially at the southeast bend, where it comes to within three kilometers of the Golan Heights. The implementation will still come as a relief to some, perhaps many, Israelis. Had 1701 been drawn up properly in the first place, Hezbollah would have been confined to areas north of the Awali River, and not the Litani.

Thankfully, there are Israelis who see this scam for what it is, such as Brig.-Gen. (res.) Amir Avivi, and they have the potential to put a stop to this fraud once and for all. In an interview on October 31, General Avivi said:

We are in the position to create a reality where Hezbollah will also be dismantled according to Resolution 1559 and really change reality for generations, and not just do a ceasefire. Let Hezbollah survive it, and then in five or ten years we’ll have to go to war again. This doesn’t make sense. We need to eradicate them.

Unfortunately, the nonsense Avivi refers to remains all too prevalent in Israel. “Sending Hezbollah a clear message,” “make Hezbollah understand” that “If you hurt us, you will pay a heavy price,” etc., are still all too prevalent in Israeli discourse and doctrine. Too many Israelis still fail to understand that such “messages” do not deter Hezbollah, Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Lions’ Den, and their like for the simple reason that if they fail to kill Jews, then they have no reason to exist.

It is not possible for them to “get the message,” no matter how “clear” Israelis imagine that message is. It is not possible for them to “understand,” for there is nothing to understand. They were created for no other purpose but to kill Jews. They are the organizational expression of the Palestinian raison d’être. Should the Palestinians ever manage to kill all the Jews, they will themselves cease to exist, for they would not know what to do with themselves after that, and set upon one another. Those who imagine that the Palestinians have the remotest interest in a state are impeding themselves. The same goes for those who imagine that Hezbollah and other jihad terrorist organizations will lay down their arms and settle nicely into parliamentary politics, just because they have been dealt a severe blow.

UNSC Resolution 1701 was not conceived as a “deal,” leaving aside the inappropriateness of even the idea of negotiation in the context of jihad. It could never have been the outcome of negotiations because that is not how jihad works. It is the same reason that the “peace process” will never deliver a deal. In jihad, there are only two possible outcomes: all or nothing. For as long as there are “experts” who insist on seeing the Middle East in terms of states interacting with states to attain “balance,” they will remain ineffective at best, dangerous at worst, because Islam is not the only ideology that must dominate.

Islam had been doing what it does for more than 1,000 years by the time nation states became the prevailing form of sovereignty. The international relations-geopolitics-conflict resolution paradigm is not only blind to, but dismissive of, this history and hence has squandered decades to produce exactly no peace at all in the Middle East.

General Amir Avivi represents a new direction. About the Palestinian Authority, the presumptive government of a future “Palestinian state,” General Avivi has this to say:

Both Iranians and the Palestinian Authority are heavily invested in promoting antisemitism. BDS, one of the leading organizations operating in universities, is managed by the Palestinian Authority and by Palestinian groups. Anybody who goes onto the BDS site and scrolls all the way down and sees who is managing BDS, it says BNC. BNC is the group of Palestinian organizations led by the Palestinian Authority. The Palestinian Authority is a strategic threat to Israel. Hamas was an operational tactical threat, but the Palestinian Authority is much more dangerous. It is a real strategic threat because it promotes delegitimization in The Hague, in the UN. It promotes antisemitism. It endangers the whole Jewish world, and it’s time to expose it. It’s time to bring down the Palestinian Authority also.

Avivi still hopes that his clear and tough stance will lead to peace with “those Palestinians who are prepared to accept Israel’s right to exist.” The realization that “Palestinian” and “Israel’s right to exist” are contradictions in terms still lies ahead of him, as does the idea that eradicating Hezbollah is necessary but not sufficient to bring peace. Other Shi’a will step forward to retake the land vacated by Hezbollah, just as others will replace Hamas to redeem “Muslim land,” honor will assuage humiliation, and it will be war all over again. When they are humiliated, they stay down.

Those currently forming the tip of the Israeli spear appreciate that it is not enough to destroy Hamas, but that “the ideology – they’re still too coy to say “Islam – of the Gazans needs to be eradicated, too. But they still believe this to be a matter of antisemitic school textbooks and “radical imams,” failing to see that that same ideology underpins every terrorist outfit in the Middle East and most far beyond. It is what every Arab Muslim child hears all around him all the time right from birth. The problem runs far deeper, and the solutions called for are far more radical than even the most radical Israelis currently appreciate. Thanks to Hamas’s October 7 misadventure, many are now well on their way to appreciating it. The drag on this healthy and promising development comes from those who cannot live with themselves unless they differentiate between Muslims and “Islamists” or “jihadists,” who are nothing more than the very best of Muslims. That is the mother of all double scams.

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-832518

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It's Time For Israel To Step Up And Show Support For Wounded Soldiers

By Edan Kleiman

December 18, 2024

Each year, on the annual National Day of Appreciation for Israel’s Wounded Soldiers and Victims of Terror, we pause for a moment to reflect on those who were injured defending our security – those who left parts of their bodies and souls on the battlefield, in Gaza, Lebanon, Judea and Samaria, and now even in Syria. But among the salutes and acknowledgments, it is crucial to remember that this day is not just about gestures and symbols; it is an urgent call to action.

Israel is currently dealing with an unprecedented rehabilitation crisis, such as we have not seen since the state’s establishment. Over 12,700 individuals injured during the Israel-Hamas war are already facing a new and complex reality – a number that is expected to grow.

Alarming forecasts of wounded IDF soldiers

The forecasts are alarming: According to the Defense Ministry’s Rehabilitation Department, by 2030, the number of disabled IDF veterans will exceed 100,000, with at least 45,000 of them suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).

These numbers represent people, families, and entire lives shattered and now striving to rebuild. Every delay in treatment, every budgetary shortfall, and every staffing shortage exacts a heavy toll – not only on the wounded themselves but on Israeli society. Untreated PTSD creates ripples of hardship across families, communities, and even the national economy.

But this is not merely a crisis – it is a test. A test of the values upon which the State of Israel was founded. Wounded IDF soldiers are not just individuals harmed during their service; they symbolize the Israeli spirit. Their rehabilitation is not charity – it is a moral, ethical, and national duty. A country that fails to invest in its wounded does not just fail them; it undermines its social cohesion and national resilience.

As someone who was injured during my military service in combat in Gaza more than 30 years ago, I understand the daily struggle firsthand. I know the pain, the battle for rehabilitation, and the bureaucratic barriers that accompany it. But I also know the hope and the strength of a community that recognizes rehabilitation as a shared effort.

On this day, I call on our leadership to move beyond mere rhetoric and focus on action. Budgets must be increased, the implementation of reforms expedited, and additional professionals recruited to provide immediate assistance to the wounded and their families. Wounded IDF veterans cannot wait – they need support here and now.

This is a call to all of us – as citizens, as leaders, and as a community. The wounded of Israel’s battles, especially those from the current war, gave everything for us. Now it is our turn to prove that we are here for them because the strength of a nation is measured not only by its military power but also by its ability to rehabilitate those wounded on its behalf.

On this National Day of Appreciation, I salute our heroes and their families and urge us all: Let us raise the banner – not just of honor, but of responsibility and morality.

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-833845

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Israel Has the Chance to Help Reshape Syria and Form Stable Ties

By Gil Murciano

December 18, 2024

The collapse of the Assad regime confronts Israel with a familiar dilemma, one with which decision-makers grappled a decade ago in the early stages of the Syrian civil war. The question is whether to intervene and contribute to the shaping of the emerging order in Syria or to opt for “splendid isolation” – observing the unfolding events from the sidelines and taking action only to protect Israel’s immediate security interests.

Israel has so far acted true to form, limiting its actions to the military sphere by creating a new buffer zone in Syria and destroying the offensive capabilities of Bashar al-Assad’s army, especially its missile and chemical weapons systems.

But if Israel is to have an impact on shaping this strategically positioned space, it must adopt a broad diplomatic initiative.

How can Israel reshape Syria?

At the current decision-making juncture, we must realize that the process of reshaping Syria is already underway. We must also recognize that in the emerging Syrian narrative, Israel is deemed to have played an integral part in liberating the country from the atrocities of the Assad regime and its Iranian patrons.

My conversations with Syrian colleagues clearly point to the perception that Israel’s victory over Hezbollah had a major impact on the Syrian army’s collapse and provides it with unique influence on future events.

However, resting on our laurels and reveling in the scenes of looting at the Iranian embassy in Damascus is a path fraught with risks. Anyone who thinks the Iranians have washed their hands of Syria probably does not understand the economic situation in Syria or does not know the Iranian regime.

As it has done in Yemen, Iraq, Sudan, and Syria itself at the end of the previous decade, Iran excels at exploiting political transitions. While currently perceived as a central pillar of Assad’s oppressive regime – having gambled on his survival and faced setbacks – Iran has shown a remarkable ability to adapt to shifting circumstances.

It has consistently demonstrated a talent for forging alliances, particularly in the face of domestic political vacuums and economic needs. The rebel takeover of Syria only deepens these needs. The Iranians have demonstrated impressive skills in building strategic ties with Syria’s non-Shi’ite population groups, such as the Sunnis and Druze in the south of Syria, and large Sunni tribes in the border area with Iraq.

Let us not forget, either, that the Iranians play a significant role in keeping Syria’s energy and electricity sector running. Iran therefore has significant cards to play against the forces trying to shape a new order in a devastated country despite the innate hostility between them and the rebels in Damascus. Iran’s leaders have, in fact, already expressed a desire to develop ties with the new Syrian regime.

ISRAEL MUST recognize that the current vacuum is temporary and therefore requires it to adopt a far more proactive approach than it did during the Syrian civil war. That includes two policy measures that point in opposite directions but seek to deal with the current uncertainty.

First, Israel must strengthen its relations with major political actors in Syria – the emphasis is, of course, on the Druze in the south, and on Rojava, the autonomous Kurdish state that has emerged over the past decade in the strategic space of northeastern Syria.

The ties should be enhanced through a quiet and cautious dialogue given both the sensitivity of building such ties while the issue of political unity is paramount in Syria, and Israel’s standing in the region is at an all-time low.

In the words of a Syrian-Kurdish friend: This is the worst time to have a public relationship with Israel, and the most important time to have a quiet dialogue with it. Tweets on this matter by reckless Israeli ministers are not helpful to this sensitive effort.

Israel has maintained an informal relationship with the Druze for years, based on a series of unwritten agreements. This was most recently demonstrated last week when the IDF defended the Syrian Druze village of Khader against attacks by local rebels.

The relationship with the Kurds is more complex, in part because of its implications for Israeli-Turkish relations. However, a model for an unofficial strategic relationship already exists in Israel’s long-standing relationship with Iraqi Kurdistan. It is rooted, among other factors, in the Kurds’ perception of Israel as a role model for nation-building, survival, and prosperity in a hostile environment.

At the same time, Israel should actively encourage and support the international and regional economic rehabilitation of Syria. This reliance on foreign aid could serve as leverage to shape the future regime, conditioning assistance on the new government’s adoption of moderate policies both domestically and internationally.

Europe and the GCC countries previously refrained from engaging in Syria’s reconstruction because they did not want to strengthen the Assad regime, but that argument is now void.

A large-scale reconstruction process could encourage a return of refugees from Europe and the countries of the region to their homes, easing the burden on their host countries. Western nations and moderate Arab states also share a common interest in removing Russian and Iranian influence from Syria.

ISRAEL’S ROLE in Syria’s reconstruction would be modest but meaningful. Initially, it would focus on guaranteeing respect for Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, with a commitment to cease attacks as long as the new regime ensures Iran’s exclusion. In the second phase, Israel could help facilitate reconstruction by allowing the use of its air and land routes for logistical support.

The past two years have highlighted the symbiotic relationship between developments in Gaza or the West Bank and events in Damascus, Baghdad, and Tehran.

Israel’s continued military presence in Gaza complicates its coordination with the Arab world on rebuilding Syria and undermines the legitimacy of local actors to collaborate with it, either publicly or covertly. Ending the destructive war in Gaza is therefore crucial for Israel’s ability to engage with regional partners in reshaping the future order in Syria.

The past two years have also taught us an important lesson about the failure of Israel’s “villa in the jungle” approach – the danger of burying one’s head in the sand and ignoring regional developments, leaving the initiative in the hands of meaningful and hostile others. This misguided approach resulted in Iranian entrenchment in Syria and the upgrading of Hezbollah’s strategic capabilities.

Israel must seize the current opportunity to foster a stable and non-hostile relationship with its strategic neighbour to the north.

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-833842

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What Does Assad's Downfall Mean for Sisi's Regime?

By Mahmoud Hassan

December 17, 2024

The fall of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad’s regime last week has triggered contrasting reactions in Egypt. While the Egyptian public has welcomed the development with joy and hope, the ruling circles are visibly anxious and fearful. This dichotomy reflects Egyptian aspirations for potential change from the iron grip that’s working on prolonging the rule of President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi.

Over the past decade, tens of thousands of Sisi’s opponents have languished in prisons that opposition groups describe as resembling Syria’s notorious Sednaya Prison. Human rights reports indicate hundreds of deaths in custody due to medical negligence and torture.

Cairo’s response to the Syrian developments has been cautious and apprehensive, adopting a tone of fear about the possible division of Syria and the spread of terrorism. It also cast doubt on the accounts of Syrians regarding the torture they endured in Assad’s prisons.

One journalist and parliamentarian close to the Egyptian authorities, Mostafa Bakry, warned on his TV show “Facts and Secret” broadcast on private satellite channel Sada El-Balad, that, “If Damascus falls, Cairo must prepare for a battle of destiny.” He expressed his sadness over Assad’s downfall and scepticism about the crimes committed in an article under the headline “The Story of Sednaya Prison: Facts or Fiction”.

Similarly, Amr Adib warned on his show “The Story” on MBC Egypt that Syria’s future could involve division or the total collapse of state institutions. Another media personality with ties to the Egyptian security agencies, Ahmed Moussa, threatened Syrians in Egypt with deportation if they celebrated Assad’s fall, claiming on Sada El-Balad that Syria is on the verge of civil war.

Aside from warnings about the Syrian scenario, Egyptian TV channels avoided covering celebrations of Assad’s downfall. They continued to air entertainment and sports programmes as if nothing significant was happening in a fellow Arab nation with close ties to Egypt.

On the ground, heightened security measures were evident in Greater Cairo, with the authorities preventing Syrian residents from celebrating. According to the NGO Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, 30 Syrians in 6th of October City were arrested at random. There are approximately 1.5 million Syrians in Egypt, mainly in Greater Cairo, where they work in commerce and industry, particularly in 6th of October City west of the capital.

Politically, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued a statement expressing concern over Syria’s situation, reaffirming Egypt’s support for Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity while urging all Syrian parties to prioritise the nation’s interests. Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Aty restated support for the Syrian state recently, its sovereignty and the unity and integrity of its territories, during a phone call with the former regime’s Foreign Minister, Bassam Sabbagh. This was just days before the collapse of the Syrian army and the loss of an opportunity to coordinate and accelerate joint support with Gulf allies to save Assad.

Ever since the 2013 coup, the Egyptian regime has used scare tactics encapsulated in the phrase, “So that we don’t become like Syria or Iraq,” to justify its authoritarian grip. This scare tactic has been used heavily in the electoral and media campaigns of the current president to intimidate Egyptians with the Syrian scenario and to push them to accept the formula of “authoritarianism in exchange for security”.

That propaganda has collapsed, and the scare tactic has now shifted to Al-Sisi’s regime, which fears the resurgence of hope among the 25 January, 2011 revolutionaries who toppled the rule of the late President Hosni Mubarak. What is happening in Syria reflects genuine concerns in Cairo about the potential success of such an experience, which could, in the future, become a model to be emulated in neighbouring countries.

Gamal Sultan is an Egyptian opposition figure who lives abroad. “One of the biggest fears of the ruling regime in Egypt now is that the success of the Syrian revolution undermines their repeated claim that ‘Egypt is the army, and if the army collapses, the state is lost’,” he wrote on Facebook. “In Syria, the army dissolved, but the state survived. People’s living conditions improved, life became more organised, and institutions started functioning normally again. The Syrian revolution proved that the people, not the army, are the foundation of the state.”

The Egyptian president warned once again during a meeting with army and police leaders last Sunday, “Those who make decisions in Syria are the people of the country, they can either destroy it or rebuild it.”

In 2016, Al-Sisi declared his support for the Syrian army, emphasising that supporting national armies was one of Egypt’s priorities. He also led regional efforts to lift the international isolation of Assad and restore Syria’s membership at the Arab League in May 2023.

In light of this, developments in Syria remain troubling and perhaps frightening for the Egyptian president, who likely did not anticipate such a swift collapse of Assad’s regime. He was, after all, standing beside him in the group photo of leaders at the Arab-Islamic summit in Riyadh last month.

With security concerns dominating the Egyptian position, fears are intensifying over the potential emergence of revolutionary waves that could spark popular movements on the streets. These movements might succeed in returning to Tahrir Square — the iconic symbol of the January 2011 Revolution — especially with the 14th anniversary of the revolution approaching next month.

Political analyst Mohamed El-Sayed explained Egypt’s concern over the success of the Syrian revolution as reflecting the stance of counter-revolution states that fight against Islamists. Part of this concern, he noted, stems from comparisons between Syria’s Sednaya Prison and Badr Prison east of Cairo, which has been dubbed “Egypt’s Sednaya”. There is also fear that the scenario where an army that’s been driven by an individual like Bashar al-Assad collapses, could happen in Egypt. There is concern that the Egyptian army might collapse under the weight of public anger or simply in order to sacrifice Al-Sisi.

In addition to fears that the Syrian revolution might inspire Egyptians, the situation becomes even more complex with the growing Turkish influence in Syria, the collapse of the Syrian army, and the control of Islamic factions over the situation there. These developments do not serve Egypt’s national security and place significant pressure on Al-Sisi’s regime.

Israel’s chief of staff and the head of its Shin Bet internal security agency visited Cairo last week to discuss with Egyptian officials the repercussions of Assad’s ousting and the need to take preventive measures. This comes amid fears of a renewed uprising in other countries, including Egypt, according to the Israeli newspaper Maariv.

Meanwhile, there are positive signals for the Egyptian opposition following the fall of Assad. These could translate into actions on the ground, not by replicating the Syrian experience, but by learning from it to reorganise opposition ranks and agree on a roadmap for national salvation.

According to a prominent Egyptian opposition figure who spoke to me on condition of anonymity, the success of the Syrian revolution has revived hope among advocates of change in the region, especially in Egypt, after years of despair. There are growing calls for the regime in Cairo to implement major reforms urgently to save itself and Egypt from a similar fate.

The Egyptian opposition hopes that the fall of Assad will drive real progress in the country, helping Egypt to avoid the Syrian scenario. This would spare the army from any potential confrontation with the Egyptian people and create a suitable environment for comprehensive national reconciliation.

The Socialist Popular Alliance Party has proposed a roadmap to this end, starting with restoring freedoms, releasing prisoners of conscience, lifting restrictions on political parties and unions, ensuring media freedom and judicial independence, and forming a government and parliament that express the people’s will, away from the control of the security agencies. It also calls for a return to the 2014 Constitution to ensure limits on the president’s term in office and powers.

A former advisor to the minister of local development questioned whether the Egyptian regime will learn from the Syrian experience. In a Facebook post, Essam Lala said that Egypt can avoid Syria’s fate by “establishing elected institutions that are accountable, imposing strict oversight to ensure adherence to laws without discrimination or favouritism, eliminating special privileges for any party, and employing qualified professionals without linking their selection to political or security loyalties.” He added that it also requires building a civil state that depends on pluralism and the peaceful transfer of power.”

Finally, the Egyptian regime may delay rapprochement with the new authority in Syria, but such hesitation may not be wise regarding reconciliation with its own people. Positive steps are needed to diffuse the growing but still hidden anger caused by the continued detention of thousands of innocent people, worsening economic and living conditions, and the increasing dominance of the generals over the nation’s wealth.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241217-what-does-assads-downfall-mean-for-sisis-regime/

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Will The Syrian Rebels Be Able To Protect Their Victory?

December 17, 2024

Following last week’s defeat of the Assad regime in Syria, Syrian rebels have been carrying out a peaceful takeover of the country’s offices and institutions. Rebel leader Ahmad Al Sharaa  – known as Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani – tasked a representative to form a civil transitional government.

The Israeli occupation of the buffer zone in the south of Syria and its relentless bombing of the Syrian military capabilities along with the violations being carried out by the US, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) militants backed by Washington and the PKK in the northwest of the country are, however, making trouble.

Al-Jolani declared the resumption of work at all state ministries and announced a pilot operation for the reopening of Damascus airport. He also announced the intention of major reforms including possible pay rise by 400 per cent for civil servants.

He also declared a plan to integrate armed militias into the national army. Engaging in internal reforms and disengagement from external issues, including a conflict with Israel, are also listed among his plans.

Meanwhile, several countries announced that they were working on repairing their diplomatic ties with the new Syria. Others sent advice to the rebels, including those who suffered or observed the failure of revolutions in neighbouring countries such as Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco.

At this stage, no one can deny that the Syrians are facing major internal and external challenges. In addition to the Israeli occupation and the American colonialist movements via the SDF and the PKK, there are the hypocritical secularists, liberals, rights activists and others.

The least troublesome issue for the rebels, in my opinion, is the Israeli occupation, and the worst is American interference.

For the Syrians, Israel is an occupying regime, one that has expanded its land grab since the fall of the Syrian regime. I think Al-Jolani’s decision not to engage in a conflict with Israel is a smart one.

It is an undeniable fact that Al-Jolani was a jihadi rebel, but now he is a statesman who heads a country which needs reformation efforts to be able to rise up after 53 years of one of the worst authoritarian regimes in the world.

At the same time, thousands of freed prisoners and families who lost their loved ones during the Assad family reign need rehabilitation.

There is an urgent need to support the millions of people who had their homes destroyed and to deal with the crisis which is resulting from half of the nation that has been or is still internally or externally displaced.

It is not wise to ignore all of this and engage with conflicts and wars which need a lot of effort and resources. Treating people’s wounds and allowing them to recover from the chronic diseases is far more important than the difficult surgery needed to deal with the Israeli occupation.

For now, the new Syria can resolve the issue with the Israeli occupation through direct or indirect talks and delay any battles until the country is ready.

Israel is also not ready to engage in more conflicts, in light of its destruction of Gaza and southern Lebanon and the backlash it has faced as a result of its actions over the past 14 months.

The issue of ‘Greater Israel’ and the arrogant remarks by Israeli officials do not reflect the reality on the ground in Israel, where acute divisions and polarisation are prevalent and are likely to lead to its self-destruction.

Meanwhile, the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which has been ruling wide swathes of Syrian land adjacent to Turkiye, will not be an obstacle as it is an ally to Ankara. A number of its leaders, including its founders, have already welcomed Al-Jolani’s announcement of the formation of one national army for the whole of the country.

Turkiye is also keeping an eye on the US-backed SDF and the Kurdish PKK group.

As happened in Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco, the secularists, liberals, feminists and alleged rights activists are the major challenge for Syrians. They are only tools for external interference. They have already started to criticise the current rulers, claiming they are not the right people to lead the country because they will not respect the minorities, the rights of women or have a modern civilised way of governance.

They argue that those in control of the new Syria are extremist religious Muslims and they are going to create a religious state which will implement Sharia Law. It was these same people, along with anti-Muslim and Islamist propagandists, who were the main reason for the counter revolutions in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia.

Where were these people over the past 53 years? Some were silent and others worked to cover up the regime’s crimes, while others believed that liberation comes through statements and reports issued by their employers in Washington or London. They never sacrificed anything for the liberation of their country.

Now, we find all of them standing up and wanting to reap the rewards of the victory of the revolution. The problem is that they spread disinformation about the Islamists who liberated the country and accuse them of being fanatics and extremists in order to turn people away from them. They are the spokespersons of foreign powers who are seeking to interfere in the internal issues of the country.

These people are either ignorant or know exactly what they are doing, undermining the creation of an Islamist government for a Muslim majority country, which will never accept any form of colonialism or external custodianship based on the exploitation of its resources and wealth. They are a real challenge because they are the face of colonial powers and the pathway of external interference.

The rebels must pay attention to them and learn lessons from the failed revolutions in neighbouring countries, be proud of their Islamic identity and work for the establishment of a constitution based on power, justice, reforms, freedoms and prosperity inspired by the ultimate justice of the Sharia Law.

They should not belittle any challenge and pay attention to the rights of every single person, engage with development and not fall into the trap of external debt and fake alliances. This is the only way for a state to survive.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241217-will-the-syrian-rebels-be-able-to-protect-their-victory/

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Palestinian Flag Flies from Landmark Bridge In Brazil In Major Act Of Solidarity

December 17, 2024

The Palestinian flag was displayed recently on the Hercílio Luz Bridge in Florianopolis, Santa Catarina in Brazil. The iconic bridge is a historic landmark of connection and unity, and was chosen specifically to be the site of a significant act international solidarity with the people of Palestine that resonated deeply with advocates of human rights, cultural understanding and justice.

The Hercílio Luz Bridge is the largest suspension bridge in Brazil, and has long been a symbol of connection between Florianopolis and the mainland. Its imposing structure represents unity, resilience and the power of bridging divides, qualities that align closely with the global struggle for justice and equality, especially in occupied Palestine.

By flying the Palestinian flag over this historic landmark in this way, the people of Santa Catarina delivered a strong message of support for the Palestinian people and their aspirations for freedom, dignity and self-determination. The act underscored the bridge’s role not just as a physical connector, but also as a platform for promoting shared values of solidarity and peace.

The display of the flag on the major tourist attraction was organised by the Frente Palestina Livre de Santa Catarina (Free Palestine Front of Santa Catarina), in collaboration with SINTESPE-SC (Union of Workers in the Public Service of Santa Catarina) and supported by SINTUFSC (Union of Workers of the Federal University of Santa Catarina), the Maruí student movement, and the Movimento Bem Viver.

The Frente Palestina Livre is a collective of independent activists from various organisations and groups united in solidarity with the Palestinian people. Their aim is to raise awareness about the ongoing genocide in Palestine and to demonstrate both to the people of the city and the people in Palestine that the struggle for Palestinian liberation resonates worldwide.

“The Hercílio Luz Bridge is considered to be the postcard of the city of Florianopolis,” explained Brazilian activist and secretary of the Free Palestine Front of Santa Catarina, Mansour Salum Husein. “Located near the city centre, it is a high-traffic area for both cars and people, making it an ideal spot to attract the attention of the population.”

By carrying out this type of activity, he said, activists in Brazil believe that it is possible to bring visibility to the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip. “We strive to humanise the Palestinian people by showcasing their cultural and civic side, beyond the suffering widely reported by the media. In this way, we help break the stigmas that portray the Palestinian people as either ‘victims of genocide’ or ‘supporters of extremist/terrorist groups’.”

Husein is the grandson of Palestinian refugees. “As such, I feel a permanent and lifelong commitment to the Palestinian cause, and neither sectarianism, prejudice nor political and Zionist persecution will stop us from engaging in the struggle for justice.”

By raising the Palestinian flag on such a prominent landmark, he added, the activists draw attention to and acknowledge the Palestinian people’s rich heritage and their right to preserve their identity in the face of adversity. Florianopolis has thus provided a platform for recognising and celebrating Palestinian culture and history, while sending a clear message of alignment with the global movement advocating for the rights of the Palestinian people.

“It reflects the growing awareness and concern among communities worldwide about the struggles faced in Palestine, including the challenges of occupation and displacement,” said Husein. “Santa Catarina, for example, has often been at the forefront of humanitarian and social justice movements. The decision to raise the Palestinian flag over the Hercílio Luz Bridge aligns with the state’s values of inclusivity and global awareness. It reflects the region’s commitment to standing in solidarity with those who face oppression and advocating for peaceful resolutions to conflicts worldwide.”

There are numerous Palestinian and pro-Palestinian collectives in Brazil, often led by members of the Palestinian diaspora. Social movements, student associations, unions, progressive parties, and independent collectives in the country have been at the forefront of the effort to sever diplomatic, military, academic and economic ties with the Zionist entity.

“Actions like this can inspire individuals and organisations to take a stand on urgent global issues, highlighting the power of collective action. “And there will be many more activities in the future,” promised Husein. “We plan to hold additional flag-waving events at other tourist attractions in Florianopolis, along with further demonstrations.”

Moreover, there are plans to establish an Arab-Palestinian Cultural Centre, along with a Permanent Committee of Solidarity with the Palestinian People at the Federal University of Santa Catarina (UFSC). A Centre for Studies of the Arab World has already been founded at the university.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241217-palestinian-flag-flies-from-landmark-bridge-in-brazil-in-major-act-of-solidarity/

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Genocide In The Name Of Security, According To Israeli Settler Narratives

December 17, 2024

Israeli settler leaders are calling upon the Israeli government to emulate the genocidal strategy used against Palestinians in Gaza to displace and ethnically cleanse Palestinians from the occupied West Bank. In a letter to the Israeli security cabinet, Yisrael Ganz, head of the Yesha Council which deals with settlement affairs, together with other settler leaders and mayors, called for the demolition of buildings and refugee camps in the occupied West Bank. All of Israel’s settlers and the settlements in which they live are, of course, illegal under the Fourth Geneva Convention.

“After moving the population, the terrorism infrastructure should be dismantled exactly as we have done in the Gaza Strip, meaning: any incriminated building to be destroyed, every terrorist to be taken out,” he said in his letter. “This is the time to abandon a defensive posture and go forward to a posture of efficient and effective lethal offensive in Judea and Samaria [the West Bank].”

This is the time – the letter reads – because passive attention has been fixed on Gaza, before shifting to Lebanon and Syria. And while the occupied West Bank, slated for illusory state building and donor funds by the international community, served its purpose in the past by keeping the two-state “solution” alive, Israel has been stating openly that the paradigm is now defunct and inapplicable. So why should the international community have any concern over its lack of implementation now? Time is serving Israel well, but not the Palestinian people.

Genocide did not prompt the international community into action. On the contrary, it continued to stall while collecting statistical data as it always does. In the occupied West Bank, where data has already normalised human rights and international law violations, the international community will have an easier time. And, having normalised genocide and its ramifications, what can really stop Israel from repeating the same pattern of ethnic cleansing if it wants to?

“Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria will cut off the axis of evil, protect Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, and safeguard London, Berlin and New York as well,” he told the Jerusalem Post. Israel’s colonialism and genocide are now being promoted as tools that protect the West. Of course, the US, Germany and the UK would not object to such rhetoric and implementation, given their complicity in the Gaza genocide, not to mention their unquestioned support throughout decades of settler-colonial expansion.

If Israel and the international community are on board with genocide as an alleged security buffer zone, how does the latter define the victims? Collateral damage? Inconsequential? If Israel does indeed commit genocide in the occupied West Bank with the blessing of the international community — which is likely — how will human rights and international law be defined? Not only would the international community not have stopped genocide in Gaza; it would have agreed to its extension in the occupied West Bank under the guise of not only Israeli, but also international security concerns. This despite the Palestinian anti-colonial resistance being directed solely against Israel, not Israel and its accomplices.

The imbalance of power is immense and it continues to grow in parallel with the Palestinian people’s forced subjugation. Israel is openly proclaiming its role in changing the Middle East, and the world still refuses to acknowledge how Palestinians across all of colonised Palestine are being exterminated in Zionism’s quest for Greater Israel.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241217-genocide-in-the-name-of-security-according-to-israeli-settler-narratives/

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Gaza War May Soon End, But The Calamity Will Last Years

Osama Al-Sharif

December 17, 2024

A pivotal moment could be close for the 14-month-old war on Gaza, which has claimed the lives of tens of thousands of Palestinians, destroyed almost 80 percent of the enclave and left more than 2 million Gazans internally displaced. There have been many such moments, only for all hopes of a ceasefire to be dashed. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s intransigence and vacillation have been the main impediments preventing a cessation of what the world now sees as a genocidal war against the Palestinians.

What makes this pivotal moment different are several things. President-elect Donald Trump is a month away from his historic inauguration. He has indicated that he wanted the war in Gaza to end before he took office on Jan. 20, a message that was intended for both Netanyahu and the leaders of Hamas. Trump has also threatened to unleash US firepower if the Israeli captives are not released by the time he is sworn in.

Also, the outgoing administration is believed to be exerting severe pressure on the Israeli premier to adopt a deal in a bid to give President Joe Biden some credit for stopping the bloodbath in Gaza.

In addition, internal pressure on Netanyahu has spiked since the end of the war with Hezbollah, which was seen as delivering a victory for Israel. The north is now secure and thousands of Israelis can return home. The sudden collapse of the Assad regime in Syria last week was the icing on the cake. Israel has now neutralized all threats from Syria, having destroyed almost all of the country’s military capabilities.

But perhaps the most pressing factor is former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s claim last month that the Israeli army had achieved all its military objectives in Gaza. Hamas’ top military and political leaders have been terminated and the group’s ability to pose a threat in the future is no more. In the eyes of the Israeli public, Hamas has been defeated and attention must now turn to bringing home the captives.

There are other issues at play. The daily carnage in Gaza is now a liability, with mounting evidence of indefensible war crimes and crimes against humanity. Israel’s allies can no longer justify or excuse what it is doing, such as the targeting of schools, hospitals, designated safe areas, journalists and aid workers, as well as the gruesome images of starving children and bereaved women.

Netanyahu has known for some time that the war has lost its strategic purpose. The killing spree has continued for several reasons: delaying an investigation into the Oct. 7 attacks, breaking the spirit of the Palestinians and forcing Hamas into a humiliating deal.

His ploy about dictating his terms on Hamas appears to have worked. While the conditions of the latest proposed agreement remain vague, it is now believed that Hamas has accepted a partial truce, not an end to the war, while also allowing Israel to stay in control of the crucial Philadelphi Corridor and other parts of the now-partitioned enclave. There will reportedly be a gradual release of the Israeli captives in different phases in return for an easing of all restrictions on the passage of aid into Gaza.

A Hamas source has confirmed that a deal that would gradually end the war could be imminent if Netanyahu does not obstruct it. Trump and Netanyahu discussed such a deal on Sunday. On Monday, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz reportedly told Knesset lawmakers that Israel is “closer than ever” to closing a deal with Hamas to free the hostages held in Gaza.

If approved by Netanyahu, the ceasefire — albeit a temporary one that would not stop the war — could pave the way for the release of Israeli captives and Palestinian prisoners, while providing a reprieve for the people of Gaza. The last time a similar pause was reached was back in November 2023, when 105 hostages were released in a week-long truce.

Netanyahu is believed to be ready to present his coalition government with details of the deal this week. Israeli and US sources believe the agreement could be in place before the end of the year.

But what would follow this truce is unknown. Netanyahu’s ability to resume the war would be degraded, even if all the hostages are released. Trump would be in the White House by then and he would not back the resumption of a war that has no benefit for the US or even Israel.

The day-after scenario is also uncertain. Netanyahu has vowed to keep Gaza under permanent Israeli military control. Meanwhile, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has pulled out of an agreement reached in Cairo by Palestinian groups, including Hamas and Fatah, for a joint administration of Gaza. Palestinian sources said that Abbas’ Fatah party had pulled out for fear that the administration committee would become a de facto ruler of Gaza and an alternative to the Palestinian Authority.

Ironically, Netanyahu has rejected the notion of allowing the PA to run Gaza, while his Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich is taking steps to consolidate the annexation of the West Bank and push the PA into financial collapse.

Regardless of what Netanyahu has in mind for Gaza, the international community must be ready to act immediately once the war comes to a halt. International aid groups, UN observers and foreign journalists must have full access to the beleaguered enclave to document the horrors that have taken place in Gaza over the past 14 months.

And while the daily barrage may finally come to an end, the reality is that there are 2 million Palestinians who are displaced with no access to shelter, clean water, sanitation, food, health or education. This will be a humanitarian crisis for many years to come.

It is way too early to talk about reconstruction. The priority must be to help the survivors. Israel will attempt to release itself from responsibility toward the victims of its genocidal war. It must not be allowed to do so. The day the war ends must also be the day Israel begins to answer for its war crimes in Gaza.

For Hamas, the end of the war must trigger open and serious discussions on its future and its purpose in Palestinian life and the liberation struggle. The Oct. 7 attacks have changed the trajectory of the Palestinian fight to end the occupation in a cataclysmic way. The outcome of that fateful day has now become a fork in the road in the decades-old Palestinian saga. While it has exacted an unimaginable cost on the Palestinians, Oct. 7 also awakened the world to their ongoing injustice and suffering. Where to go from here, no one knows. But what is clear is that the fates of Israel and the Palestinians have become more interconnected than ever before.

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2583415

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Courts A Realistic Avenue for Restricting Israel’s Arms Supply

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

December 17, 2024

A Dutch court on Friday rejected a bid by a group of pro-Palestinian organizations to halt the country’s arms exports to Israel. The group may appeal the ruling. Another Dutch court had in February ordered the government to halt the delivery of parts for F-35 fighter jets used by Israel in its bombardment of the Gaza Strip. This step, though some might think of it as being symbolic, was of great importance.

The Rights Forum, a human rights organization based in The Hague, teamed up with Oxfam Novib and PAX for Peace to bring the case against the Netherlands government for its arming of Israel during its ongoing genocide in Gaza. The group found that a Dutch company, Fokker, was producing three essential components for F-35 fighter jets. Several other Dutch companies were also producing components.

The appeals court sided with the plaintiff because it saw there was a “clear risk” that the parts the Netherlands was exporting were being used in “serious violations of international humanitarian law.” The Dutch state’s defense was that those parts were needed for Israel to defend itself. The court rejected all its claims.

The Rights Forum followed this lawsuit with another bid to prevent the indirect sale of those parts. This case is still in process. If it wins, then Israel will have no way to circumvent the verdict banning its deliveries. It is important to note that the parts are essential for the F-35’s functioning.

According to Gerard Jonkman, the head of the Rights Forum, its success sets a precedent for human rights groups and opens a new route for taming Israel. He said that human rights groups in Denmark and the UK are also suing their governments. This step also inspires the public. Jonkman thinks that the government does not really represent people’s aspirations. He added that the Dutch public is divided into three categories. About a third are indifferent, while there are twice as many who advocate restricting arms to Israel compared to those who support keeping the supply as it is or increasing it. Hence, by supporting Israel, the government is not complying with the people’s will.

There is increasing momentum regarding arms restrictions. The UK in September announced that it was suspending 30 of its 350 export licenses for arms to Israel. However, human right groups criticized the move as merely symbolic, as it does not include the UK-made parts for the F-35. Spain in November refused to allow two ships carrying weapons bound for Israel to dock in the port of Algeciras, while a Belgian minister supports an EU-wide ban on arms deliveries to Israel. Italy announced in January it had halted arms shipments in October 2023.

However, those actions are a mere drop in the ocean, as the main weapons provider to Israel is the US. Sixty-nine percent of Israel’s arms imports come from America. Until the US changes its stance and imposes an arms embargo on Israel, the latter will act with impunity. In addition to its ongoing genocide in Gaza and recent indiscriminate bombardment of south Lebanon, Israel last week conducted an incursion into southwest Syria and illegally occupied an area of 400 sq. km.

It is yet to be seen how this move will inspire human rights groups inside the US. The recent elections show that the pro-Israel lobby still has a grip over Congress. The current administration has taken a very pro-Israel stance despite President Joe Biden’s occasional criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and paying of lip service to the Palestinians.

Even when the Biden administration in October gave an ultimatum to Netanyahu regarding Israel’s blocking of aid, it did not follow through on its threat to restrict the supply of weapons. After the 30-day grace period expired, the US decided to keep sending arms, even though various human right organizations insisted that Israel was still preventing aid from reaching Palestinians in Gaza. Ultimately, the entire issue was an election stunt designed to appeal to the left, rather than a genuine intent by the US to tame Israel’s behaviour. The incoming Trump administration, judging by the president-elect’s Cabinet picks, may well take an even more pro-Israel stance than its predecessor.

In the Netherlands, the government is quite pro-Israel, which is why the Rights Forum believed it would face an uphill battle. It went to the courts. Its journey can inspire human rights groups in the US. As the route via Congress seems very difficult for now, they might use the courts to impose arms restrictions on Israel. This can be very efficient in the US, which is a country focused on the separation of powers. The courts are not influenced by the pro-Israel lobby as much as the members of Congress, who face regular elections and need donors’ money to fund their expensive and highly competitive campaigns.

According to Jonkman, even those who opposed his organization’s action were quite beneficial to it. Despite their opposition, they brought the issue into the public discourse and contributed to increasing the awareness of Israel’s violations of human rights. The group also raised awareness of the possible avenues to fight this injustice. The more injustice increases, the more people will find avenues to fight it.

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2583412

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Will The Lebanese Frog Jump Out Of The Pot?

Nadim Shehadi

December 17, 2024

Ceasefire or no ceasefire, flights to Beirut are full. The diaspora is heading back for Christmas, like every holiday, as if nothing happened and while we are still technically in a war zone. It was also thus during the summer, when the country was obviously on the edge of an abyss but the partying continued.

We all know it cannot go on like this forever, but as long as we can find a way to live with it, we will. There must be some law to describe the phenomenon: the more hardship you can take, the more hardship you will get, until you cannot take it anymore.

Some call it the resilience of Lebanese society. The Lebanese seem to have the ability to accommodate and move on — a sign of strength. As someone on X put it, as soon as the fighting stops, we go back to abnormal.

But it is also a sign of resignation, of acceptance that nothing can change or that change takes too much effort and is risky. It is a form of powerlessness as things go from bad to worse — a downward spiral from which it is impossible to emerge. The problem is precisely that the Lebanese can adapt to anything and this can continue for a long time. The longer it lasts, the less reversible it is.

Dr. Mohammed Chatah observed this in 2012, the year before he was assassinated, and wrote about it in his blog. On Beirut’s corniche, people looked happy and oblivious to the steady and regular degradation their country was experiencing, while he could see the coming danger. It reminded him of the “boiling frog” phenomenon, where if you put a frog in a pot of water and let the temperature rise slowly, then the frog will not react to the gradual heating of the water. The frog even appears to enjoy it until it reaches a deadly level. But by then the frog is incapable of jumping out of the pot.

You cannot really blame the frog, nor can you blame the Lebanese. According to Chatah: “It is those who can turn off the switch before it is too late who deserve the blame.” That was more than 12 years ago, when, in retrospect, we had seen nothing. Since then, we have seen the paralysis of government, economic decline, financial collapse and the coronavirus, plus a nuclear-scale blast that destroyed half of Beirut.

The lesson for today is that accommodating the crisis with temporary measures and continuing as though nothing has happened is no longer an option. We have reached the proverbial boiling point, beyond which there can be no return.

The solution proposed is a temporary ceasefire to allow the implementation of a temporary solution based on another temporary ceasefire reached in August 2006. The message from Chatah is that we cannot afford to do this again. This time, what is needed is a long-term solution that will save the country and the region from another war.

The Syrian regime cloned itself in Lebanon between 1990 and 2005. It penetrated every institution and political party, including ministries, the army, the security services and even religious organizations. Syria also facilitated the creation of Hezbollah, sponsored by its ally Iran, and balanced it out with Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who was close to Saudi Arabia.

The root of the problem may be in a system built on endless compromise and the contradictions of coexistence. It is almost immune to any reform or radical change. In fact, Lebanese politicians are underrated and have a unique capability for engaging in a balancing act under the most difficult circumstances.

The argument goes like this: If the system is in crisis, then change is resisted because it should not happen under pressure. Once a compromise is reached, then change is also resisted because it could upset the balance and, since there is no crisis, there is no more urgency, as the system is working and there is no need for change.

Temporary solutions tend to become permanent, like UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war with Israel. A compromise was reached that brought about stability and the country went back to “normal.” This was a false stability Lebanon was eager to maintain and reluctant to upset by pursuing more radical reforms, such as the disarmament of Hezbollah.

An attempt in May 2008 to curb Hezbollah’s communications infrastructure and its control of Beirut airport ended up with a violent attack on the city by the group’s “black shirts” and the threat of another civil war, so the government retracted.

Another crisis in January 2011 collapsed the government of Saad Hariri, which lost its majority under the threat of violence. A group of MPs was pressured to switch sides again to avert another civil war.

The risk is exactly that with today’s ceasefire and the return to apparent normality: internal tension between Hezbollah and its critics could result in violence, which could bring back the spirit of compromise, meaning Hezbollah will be allowed to keep its arms north of the Litani river — the line that the Israelis specified. Meanwhile, the can of long-term disarmament is kicked ever further down the road.

The Assad regime has collapsed in Syria, but its clone implanted in Lebanon is now part of the system of compromise, which at the same time protects it. In a country where a coup or a revolution is impossible and where we are addicted to half measures, will we allow the frog to boil or will we find responsible leaders who will turn off the switch before it is too late?

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2583410

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Syria’s Future Will Be Decided By A Correct Reading Of Developments

Eyad Abu Shakra

December 17, 2024

Regardless of what one says, words remain inadequate for doing justice to the major shift that Syria has seen over the past week.

The end of the Assad dynasty after more than half a century is a significant development, very significant indeed. It will be even more significant and will endure longer in our collective memory and conscience if the alternative succeeds in overcoming the challenges and repudiates the pessimists, who nonchalantly and confidently claim that our people do not deserve democracy, leaving us with only two options: tyranny through raw violence or the tyranny of religious extremism.

Personally, given my desire to be optimistic about this country, which I adore, and my knowledge that many of its citizens are prudent … I want to be optimistic this time.

The tragic ordeal that the people’s “uprising” faced in late 2011 and 2012 left us with harsh lessons that I doubt anyone active in Syria will forget, no matter how much time passes.

Let us present a recap of what happened:

In March 2011, the Syrian people rose up in the most beautiful and courageous uprising of the so-called Arab Spring. Its first spark was in Houran, in the far south of the country.

It was a spontaneous mass uprising, in which Syrians of all ages, religions, sects and ethnicities took part, demanding freedom and dignity, before the regime’s brutal repression pushed them to use violence.

Later, the defection of military officers and soldiers, as well as the regime’s savage response to the peaceful demonstrations, contributed to the militarization of the uprising, which ordinary citizens never chose — citizens who had never considered themselves to be in the trench opposite that of Bashar Assad’s army.

The Syrian people did choose to taint their uprising with sectarianism, revenge, division or separation.

They absolutely did not seek this in the slightest. Here, I recall anecdotes that push back against the regime’s propaganda about a “sectarian uprising,” which was founded on the fact that many protests were launched from mosques after Friday prayers.

A dear friend once explained to me that many Christians would gather outside these mosques, waiting for their Muslim brothers to walk out so they could join them, hoping that the security forces and the regime’s gangs would hesitate to shoot at worshippers coming out of a mosque.

The vast majority of the demonstrations in the first months and years included all segments of Syrian society. That was before local, regional and international interests infiltrated the country, sowing mistrust and instilling fear as they sought to seize the moment by encouraging and aggravating extremism.

Despite all of this, however, most Syrians did not lose their moral compass.

Despite attempts by several parties to ride the bandwagon of the movement, marginalize competition and seize the spoils before they had been acquired, along with the emergence of suspicious groups that usurped slogans and committed human rights violations, the uprising persisted.

And despite the escalating repression — parallel to or in anticipation of growing mass rage — the Syrians still did not lose their moral compass or their hope for change.

Neither the world’s abandonment — including Barack Obama’s “red lines” that neither the toxic gas nor the barrel bombs crossed — nor the Russian airstrikes, nor the misleading conferences, managed to weaken the resilience and belief of the Syrian people, who remained convinced that dignity, freedom and rights are indivisible.

The Syrians bet on the passage of time. They won their bet against a regime that lived in a realm without time. It had benefited, for decades, from its rivals and neighbors’ intersection of interests around it. Indeed, as it vied for survival at any cost, the regime made generous concessions to all foreign actors, while depriving its people of minimal freedom and rights.

Then, as global priorities shifted, many of these points of intersection collapsed. The frail authorities, which were not trusted or supported by the people, began to wobble. Members of the military were not willing to fight and defend a regime that no longer meant anything to them.

Moreover, the conditions of the fighters who had been sent to the country from other countries, especially Lebanon, changed drastically in the past few months. Israel escalated its war and sought to make as many gains as possible before the new US administration takes office on Jan. 20.

Thus, to the astonishment of the world, Syria’s cities fell, one after the other, within a few days. One or two sides of the regional triangle were left to dominate at the expense of the third side.

Nonetheless, fundamental facts must be recognized, the most prominent of which are:

First, overthrowing a regime does not necessarily guarantee the success of the alternative. Indeed, many actors had been unwilling to recognize the party that toppled the regime until recently.

Second, Syria remains coveted by several regional powers. It remains an important chess piece on the board of international competition in the region.

Third, in an era in which identities and borders have fallen and nations are caught in the labyrinth of racism, miscalculations based on misguided judgments should be avoided.

Fourth, the imbalance in international relations between the major powers will have repercussions in the Middle East. Syria is now undergoing a fragile and critical path that will inevitably be affected by this imbalance. It will also certainly have implications for neighboring entities, unless the latter take the initiative and recognize the risks, protect Syria as a political entity and agree on a strategy that ensures its survival through frameworks suitable for enhancing the state.

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2583405

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Press Freedom the Latest Victim of Israeli Government’s Vitriol

Yossi Mekelberg

December 17, 2024

I was present at last month’s London conference at which the publisher of Israel’s liberal-progressive Haaretz newspaper, Amos Schocken, in a less than well-crafted speech, appeared to call the Hamas terrorists “freedom fighters.” And, like most of those present in the hall, I thought he had made a gross error of judgment.

My gut feeling was that it was a clumsy rather than a deliberate provocation of his audience, of whom the vast majority supported a two-state solution, opposed the Israeli occupation and were in favor of an immediate ceasefire deal that would also ensure the return of the hostages. However, there was no doubt in my mind that this passage from his speech would travel very quickly to Israel and cause an unholy storm.

Yet it was hard to imagine that Schocken’s comment, though misplaced, was a deliberate attempt to stir up a political hurricane that would present an opportunity for Israel’s government to try to destroy one of the longest-established and, in my humble opinion, the most internationally respected Israeli newspaper, by means of a financial boycott. I must admit that I was still a little naive regarding this present Israeli government, which has for some time been going after any aspect of its country’s democratic and free society.

As a participant in this conference, I left with the strong impression of an event that conveyed with a clear voice a message of peace, tolerance and reconciliation, with a very strong constructive and pragmatic approach — not one that would endorse political violence from any side. Yet, I also dreaded what would be the response in Israel to a misplaced sentence by one participant, as important as he is.

And lo and behold, all hell broke loose. Right-wing politicians and journalists seized the opportunity to compete over who could deliver the strongest chastisement of the newspaper and its publisher. One right-wing organization even filed a complaint with the police. The subsequent retraction and apology from Schocken, as well as many of Haaretz’s journalists taking to their keyboards to reprimand their publisher in no uncertain terms, was not enough. The right in Israel smelled blood and nothing less would satisfy them — not even a model of press freedom in which journalists are unafraid to take their publisher to task.

For the Israeli right, Haaretz has long been walking with a target on its back because of its independent and critical thinking. However, above all else, it is because of its opposition to the occupation of Palestinian land and the oppression of the Palestinian people, its stand against the building of settlements and settler terrorism and, more generally, its refusal to bow its head to the unchecked assault on the country’s democratic institutions and gatekeepers by Netanyahu and his antidemocratic bunch.

If criticizing Schocken for his words was legitimate, the government’s decision to punish the newspaper by ordering a boycott of the publication by its officials or anyone working for a government-funded body, as well as by ceasing all government advertising in its print and online editions and canceling all subscriptions to it, was an utterly illegitimate attempt to completely silence the newspaper.

A statement by the office of Shlomo Karhi, the communications minister, opened a window on this government’s distorted understanding of press freedom. It argued, for example, that whoever calls for the imposition of sanctions against Israel, as Schocken has indeed advocated in order to help bring about an end to the occupation, should not be funded by the state of Israel. What Karhi does not understand is that the money the government controls belongs to all its citizens, including those who agree with this view, let alone that it is still perfectly legal to state it. Punishing those who criticize the government — and this was an obvious act of punishment — is an attempt to silence dissenting voices, not to protect the country.

To control the media is to control the discourse and its diversity of opinion. Hence, for example, the government’s move, back in May, to take the Al Jazeera TV network off-air and later to close the network’s offices in Ramallah (which, by the way, is a city that the Israeli military entered in violation of past agreements) were popular with Netanyahu’s political base. They were also a further attempt to prevent Israelis from seeing the horrors of Gaza and to entrench a collective denial of what is taking place there.

Between economic sanctions, barring a TV channel from broadcasting and closing a bureau, the plan is clearly to intimidate journalists in the hope that they will impose their own self-censorship. The government’s attempts to silence certain media outlets are one side of the coin; the other is its active lobbying for wealthy benefactors to establish media outlets whose main objectives are to praise and even worship the “great leader” and poison the discourse by attacking his critics.

In its ongoing moves to destroy the free press, the Knesset last month passed a controversial bill ordering the privatization of Israel’s Public Broadcasting Corporation within two years and threatening its ultimate closure should a buyer not be found. This would be a win-win for Netanyahu and, if it takes place, a painful blow to press freedom. Netanyahu could either ensure that the privatization process produces a new owner loyal to him or simply close down the corporation and bring to an end many decades of dedicated, courageous and professional public broadcasting that has been holding power to account since long before Netanyahu entered politics.

The direction in which Israel under Netanyahu and his far-right populist allies is traveling is toward a democracy in name only. Weakening the freedom of the press is only one aspect of it, albeit a very significant one. It is being complemented by similar attacks on the judiciary, on academia and on civil society; attacks that portray all these institutions as unpatriotic, elitist and dishonest, even as serving foreign interests, and by that declaring open season against them.

Israel’s democracy has reached a nadir, one that which only a few years ago would have been unthinkable. But now we have the reality of a prime minister standing as defendant in a corruption trial and who, instead of showing contrition, has elected to use the courtroom to portray himself as the victim of a hostile domestic media that serves the “deep state.”

Years of this assault on its freedom have left the media fighting for its independence. It is testimony to its struggle that, despite the relentless efforts to silence it, Israel’s media outlets and its brave journalists are maintaining their civil duty of speaking truth to power. In the case of Netanyahu, this includes some very painful truths that are currently being deliberated on in court.

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2583389

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URL:   https://www.newageislam.com/middle-east-press/diplomacy-israel-palestinian-settler/d/134056

 

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