By YASAR
YAKIS
February
21, 2021
The
South Caucasus is a region historically known for its instability, largely
because it has stood at the intersection of the zones of influence of first
Byzantium and Iran, then the Ottoman Empire and Iran, and finally between
Russia, Iran and Turkey.
The
last attempt to change borders in the region was made by Armenia in 1988. It
attacked neighboring Azerbaijan and occupied the autonomous region of
Nagorno-Karabakh, which was predominantly inhabited by Armenians. Azerbaijan
was not prepared for war, so it was defeated.
Armenia’s
appetite for conquering new territories continued to grow and it also occupied
several other provinces adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh. The areas it occupied
outside of Nagorno-Karabakh amounted to a fifth of Azerbaijan’s entire
territory. More than half a million Azeris had to flee these areas.
The
international community refused to recognize Armenia’s occupation and the UN
Security Council adopted four resolutions urging it to withdraw from the
occupied Azeri territories. In 1992, the Organization of Cooperation and
Security in Europe (OSCE) set up the Minsk Group to force Armenia to withdraw
from the occupied territories. However, for almost three decades, this group,
co-chaired by the US, France and Russia, has done more to perpetuate the
Armenian occupation than put an end to it.
Azerbaijan
understood that the only way to liberate its territories was to rely on its own
army. So it drew up a long-term plan to establish a strong army equipped with
state-of-the-art weapons. Soldiers were trained and students sent to cadet
colleges and staff academies in several countries, including Turkey, where
there is a strong tradition of military training.
Levon
Ter-Petrosyan, the first president of Armenia after the dismemberment of the
Soviet Union, was planning to use his country’s position of strength to
negotiate a fair peace with Azerbaijan. Current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan
was even more ambitious and continued to further harass Azerbaijan. In July
last year, Armenia attacked a border town, Tovuz, which is strategically
located on the route of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the newly
constructed Kars-Tbilisi-Baku railway and the Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan
motorway. Unlike other settlements located on the boundaries between Azerbaijan
and the Armenian-occupied Azeri territories, Tovuz was on the border between
Armenia and Azerbaijan. Therefore, Yerevan could not use this attack to extend
the boundaries of the territories under its occupation. The Tovuz attack could
only aim at changing the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia, or simply
provoke Baku to attack.
Azerbaijan
refrained from falling into this trap because of the Collective Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO), also known as the Russian NATO. This treaty ensures that,
if Armenia is attacked by a third country, Moscow has a contractual obligation
to help it. Therefore, Baku limited its reaction to the attack on Tovuz to
silencing the Armenian guns.
On
Sept. 27, Armenia attacked several Azeri towns. Azerbaijan this time retaliated
with massive firepower. Armenia, as expected, asked Russia to fulfill its
commitment under the CSTO and send troops to join its fight against Azerbaijan.
Russia responded that the CSTO provisions were valid only when internationally
recognized Armenian territory was attacked. Therefore, it had no obligation to
militarily support Armenia.
So
fierce military clashes took place for 44 days between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
The Armenian forces ultimately suffered a major defeat. Azeri troops liberated
most of the territories that Armenia had occupied for some three decades. They
also seized the strategically important city of Shusha, opening the way to
Khankendi (Stepanakert), the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh.
At
this stage, Russian President Vladimir Putin stepped in and invited the parties
to agree to a cease-fire. As Pashinyan admitted defeat, there was nothing to do
but agree to it. Putin was not pleased by Pashinyan’s pro-Western policy, so he
wanted to teach him a lesson. However, he did not want to do it to such an
extent that it would cause the total collapse of the Armenian army. Otherwise,
the balance of power in the South Caucasus would tilt too much in favor of
Azerbaijan.
The
best solution now would be for Azerbaijan to let the Armenians go back to their
pre-1988 estates and for the Armenians not to create problems for the return of
Azeris to the homes they fled as a result of the initial Armenian invasion.
If
the cease-fire holds and peace returns to the region, the South Caucasus may
become a stable area. The talented and sophisticated Armenians of
Nagorno-Karabakh will be the major beneficiaries of Azerbaijan’s opulent
economy, as they are fully fledged citizens of this oil-rich country.
*Yasar
Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkey and founding member of the ruling
AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar
Original
headline: What peace could mean for the South Caucasus
Source:
Arab News
URL: https://newageislam.com/islam-west/peace-utmost-importance-south-caucasus/d/124366
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