Gambling Is The Crux Of US President Biden’s Velvet Glove Dealings With Israel’s Netanyahu
By
Dr. James M. Dorsey for New Age Islam
18 May 2024
US
President Joe Biden Doesn’t Fit The Mould Of A High-Risk Gambler
Yet,
gambling is the crux of his velvet glove dealings with Israel. With one eye on
Israeli politics and the other on presidential elections in the United States
in six months, Mr. Biden is walking a tightrope.
The
Stakes And The Costs Couldn’t Be Higher
At its
core, despite the administration’s escalating verbal criticism of Prime
Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and the suspension of an arms shipment to Israel,
Mr. Biden is sticking to his bear hug approach towards Israel with a twist
rather than taking coercive steps that could force Mr. Netanyahu’s hand.
Credit:
CNN
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The
administration’s refusal to endorse a full-scale Israeli ground offensive in
the southern Gazan enclave of Rafah, criticism of Mr. Netanyahu’s war tactics
that have failed to destroy Hamas and the prime minister’s insistence on not
planning for a post-war administration of the Strip, and close coordination
with Mr. Netanyahu’s rivals in his war cabinet and the opposition, aims to
tighten the noose around the Israeli leader’s neck.
The strategy,
initiated in early April with opposition leader Yair Lapid's visit to
Washington, may have begun to produce results.
In the most
frontal assault to date on Mr. Netanyahu’s policies from within the prime
minister’s Cabinet, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant this week publicly
challenged the prime minister to come forward with a plan for Gaza’s post-war
administration and to disavow Israeli military rule of the war-ravaged Strip.
Echoing
unidentified military officials quoted in Israeli media, Mr. Gallant warned
that in the absence of Israeli planning for the day the guns fall silent in
Gaza, “only two negative options remain: Hamas' rule in Gaza or Israeli
military rule.”
Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant challenges Prime Minister Binyamin
Netanyahu. Source: YouTube
------
Military
officials have insisted that their failure to destroy Hamas and the group’s
ability to resurface in parts of Gaza evacuated by Israeli troops was due to
Mr. Netanyahu’s refusal to devise a strategy for the day the war ends.
Backed by
the Biden administration and supported by his fellow war cabinet member, Benny
Gantz, Mr. Gallant said he opposed Israeli rule. Mr. Gallant demanded that Mr.
Netanyahu publicly forswear the Israeli administration of the Strip.
“I call on
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make a decision and declare that Israel
will not establish civilian control over the Gaza Strip, that Israel will not
establish military governance in the Gaza Strip, and that a governing
alternative to Hamas in the Gaza Strip will be raised immediately," Mr.
Gallant said.
A senior US
official was quick to say that the Biden administration “share(s) the Minister
of Defence Gallant's concern that Israel has not developed any plans for
holding and governing territory the IDF (Israel Defence Forces) clears, thereby
allowing Hamas to regenerate in those areas. This is a concern because our
objective is to see Hamas defeated."
US Air Force personnel unload a KC-135 Stratotanker at an undisclosed
location in the Middle East. Credit: US Air Force
-----
Israeli
military officials have downplayed the impact of Mr. Biden’s suspension of a
shipment to Israel of high payload 2,000 and 500-pound bombs and threat to halt
the supply of other offensive weapons.
The Israel
Defence Forces “has weapons for the missions it is planning. And also for the
missions in Rafah, we have the weapons we require,” said military spokesman
Daniel Hagari.
Even so,
Mr. Biden’s submission to Congress of a US$1 billion weapons package for Israel
aimed to alleviate concerns in the Israeli military and encourage senior
commanders to stand up to Mr. Netanyahu and appease the president’s pro-Israeli
critics that include donors and members of his Democratic Party as well as
potentially undecided pro-Israel voters.
The bulk of
the weapons, including tank ammunition, tactical vehicles, and mortar rounds,
have yet to be produced and will not be delivered for months at the earliest.
At the core
of the dispute over post-war planning is a cornerstone of any future resolution
of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Palestinian self-rule and independence, a
notion that Mr. Netanyahu rejects.
In separate
statements in recent days, Mr. Netanyahu insisted that the creation of a Palestinian
state alongside Israel “would be a reward for terrorists” and that he would
“not replace Hamastan with Fatahstan," a reference to Al Fatah, the
backbone of President Mahmoud Abbas’ internationally recognised, West
Bank-based Palestine Authority.
Mr.
Netanyahu has insisted that Israel maintain security control of Gaza and the
West Bank indefinitely and argued that there's no point in drafting a post-war
plan before Hamas is completely defeated.
"Indecision
is, in essence, a decision. This leads to a dangerous course, which promotes
the idea of Israeli military and civilian governance in Gaza,” Mr. Gallant
said.
Israeli National Security Minister demands war. Source: YouTube
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An aide to
Mr. Gallant warned that “this current trajectory serves the interest of the
most radical elements in the Israeli government — (National Security Minister)
Itamar Ben Gvir and (Finance Minister) Betzalel Smotrich — who fantasise about
full Israeli control over Gaza and rebuilding of settlements."
To make the
point, Mr. Ben Gvir this week told thousands of Israeli settlers, ”We in the
Cabinet demand war now. Demand to enter Rafah. Demand targeted
assassinations... Without liberating Gaza there will be no solution. The
solution is to return home…to the Land of Israel…to liberate, to colonise and
also to bequeath. (Gaza) has always been ours and will stay ours.”
Contrary to
Messrs. Netanyahu and Ben Gvir, Messrs. Galant and Gantz, as well as the Biden
administration and the overwhelming majority of the international community,
favour the Palestine Authority taking control of Gaza.
Despite the
Authority’s loss of credibility under Mr. Abbas in the eyes of Palestinians,
control of Gaza would recreate the Strip and the West Bank as one entity under
Palestinian administration that could evolve into an independent Palestinian
state.
It would
also potentially help pave the way for Arab participation in a possible
international peacekeeping force in Gaza and negotiations to resolve the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The Biden
administration hopes that it would open the door to a Middle East mega-deal
involving Saudi recognition of Israel and tighter US-Saudi military and nuclear
cooperation.
Credit: UNICEF
-----
In gambling
on his ability to tighten the noose around Mr. Netanyahu’s neck, Mr. Biden is
not only risking his chances of winning a second term in office.
Even though
Israel has reduced its Gaza kill rate eight months into the Gaza war, tens of
Palestinians daily still pay the ultimate price for Israel’s refusal to end the
war and Mr. Biden’s failure to put his foot down firmly.
In
addition, even if Mr. Biden succeeds in cornering Mr. Netanyahu, the prime
minister's potential successors, whether that is Mr. Gallant, Mr. Gantz, or Mr.
Lapid, envision a future emasculated Palestinian entity.
That is a
far cry from Palestinian aspirations for a state that is fully independent and
exercises full sovereignty over its territory.
To be sure,
undermining Mr. Netanyahu is a worthwhile endeavour. Even so, Mr. Biden could
discover that his gamble may produce results that were not worth the risks.
-----
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow
at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International
Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent
World with James M. Dorsey.
Main
Headline: US President Biden Plays High-Risk
Poker With Israel’s Netanyahu
URL: https://www.newageislam.com/islam-politics/us-president-biden-israel-netanyahu/d/132340
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