The Myth of The Muslim Population Bomb
By
Moin Qazi, New Age Islam
12
September 2023
A common
myth perpetuated by the anti-Muslim brigade is that Muslims will outnumber
Hindus in the long run. The more hysterical postings claim large-scale
conversions to Islam will occur and that there will be widespread killing of
non-Muslims. But Muslims are not the only targeted religious group. In fact, in
India, the growth rate of Muslims has declined.
Baseless
Conclusions
Many of
these conclusions are not based on sound logic. There are a lot of political
agendas to manipulate vote banks. One should not overlook the dimension of
poverty in the population dynamics. Poverty has a direct bearing on family
demographics. Those living in extreme poverty feel their children are more
vulnerable to sickness for which they cannot afford the expenses. To offset the
fear of losing children to fatal diseases, they hedge this risk by having more
children. There is a direct relationship between poverty and fertility and an
inverse relationship between fertility and higher per capita income. That new
economic programs are slowly delivering results and improving living conditions
is bound to transform the mindset of this segment of the population.
A new
report forecasts that the number of Muslims worldwide will grow over the next
20 years at twice the rate of non-Muslims but that the rapid growth will
decrease. With more Muslim women getting educations and jobs, people migrating
to cities, and living standards improving, the report says, the birthrate in
majority-Muslim countries will come to more closely resemble the pattern in
other nations.
The
Logic of Stabilization of Muslim Population
Rural
women, particularly Muslim women, live in the stranglehold of harsh customs.
They are primarily underpowered and are often unable to act on their behalf to
obtain family planning services to regulate their childbearing. They are also
likely to believe that bearing many children will provide a bulwark against
poverty in their old age. The financially better-off have easy access to many
financial security programs for planning for a peaceful and hassle-free old
age. The poor carry a wrong perception that having more children will provide
additional sources of earnings, and thus, they will have a better kitty to cope
with life's eventualities.
Fortunately,
there is a growing awareness among the new generation of women. Muslim women
also challenge patriarchy that all women experience around unequal power
hierarchies. Muslim women's activism for education and equal opportunities is
usually underpinned by their emancipatory readings of foundational Islamic
texts. The new wave of awareness of the priority of education has catapulted
Muslim women from the hearth to positions in various fields. The ripple
benefits of this new development are bound to impact their thinking and
demographic profiles.
The current
decline is also directly related to the fact that the younger generation of
Muslims is more educated and aspirational. Educated and aspirational Muslim
women are as careful about family planning as their Hindu counterparts in
India. I know countless young Muslim couples in their 30s who have no children
despite family pressures because they do not want a child unless they can give
it their best.
Global
trends also show that the growth of the Muslim population has slowed down and
will match the average demographic equation in the foreseeable future. Muslim
fertility rates (2.3) have declined faster than any other community,
approaching replacement level fertility (TFR=2.1), as evidenced by empirical
surveys like the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5). A recent study from
the Pew Research Center on religion and public life demonstrates that neither
the U.K. nor Europe is in danger of a Muslim takeover, whatever conservative
America may believe. "The Future of the Global Muslim Population:
Projections for 2010-2030" is a significant and comprehensive study that
focuses on the Muslim populations in North America, Europe, Africa and the Asia-Pacific
and provides a revealing look into the future of the Muslim population
worldwide and the future religious makeup of the world.
The study says that the global Muslim
population is expected to grow faster than non-Muslim populations but that the
Muslim population is projected to grow slower than it did during the previous
two decades. The Pew findings demonstrate that fear of a Muslim takeover is
essentially the product of hysteria. France is not headed toward becoming an
Islamic republic by 2048, as has been claimed, and Germany is not on its way to
becoming a Muslim state by 2050.
Muslim
population growth is still out of sync with global trends, but if the latest
findings hold up, it should get there soon. The truism is that there is not
much to despair about on the population front or to conjure fantasies of Muslim
hegemony. What is required is not a political lens. It is the economic prism
through which we should view the whole issue and focus on programs that can
further refine the demographic equation and correct the skewed profile.
It is often argued that Muslim women's
exceedingly high childbearing rates hinder their life prospects. However, the
fact is that Muslim fertility rates (2.3) have declined faster than any other
community, approaching replacement level fertility (TFR=2.1), as evidenced by
empirical surveys like the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5). This leads
to the conclusion they have successfully adopted family planning programmes
despite their low literacy rate, poverty, and social marginalization.
Strangely,
the findings and projections of authoritative studies are less likely to
circulate as widely or quickly as statistics about predictions of a Muslim
takeover. Commentators seem more focused on ringing false alarm bells than on
presenting facts. The reality is that there is no takeover but a danger of
intolerance threatening society's very fabric. We are not witnessing a clash of
civilizations but cultures fostered by those who portray Islam as a monolith.
These people see religious and cultural diversity as a threat rather than a
potential source of strength and enrichment. The liberal democratic heritage
and fabric of our societies must be safeguarded and fear-mongering, religious
and racial discrimination rejected and marginalized in a future based on facts,
not fiction.
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Moin Qazi is the author of the bestselling book,
Village Diary of a Heretic Banker. He has worked in the development finance
sector for almost four decades.
URL: https://newageislam.com/islam-politics/myth-muslim-population-bomb/d/130654
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