Behind the Israel-Arab Deal Are Monarchs Who Fear Their Own People
By
Arshad Alam, New Age Islam
21
September 2020
A momentous
change is taking place in West Asia; one which has the potential to
fundamentally alter the ideological and political landscape of the region. The
moves by UAE and Bahrain to recognise the state of Israel, have diplomatic
relations and establish normal ties has upset decades of anti-Jewish politics
within the Arab world. This push towards ‘normalization’ is not just seen
within West Asia but also in central Asian countries like Serbia and Kosovo.
There is a strong possibility that this process will not stop with these
countries but will be followed by more countries, especially Saudi Arabia. It
was lost on no one, that Bahrain, a vassal state of Saudi Arabia, could not
have established ties with Israel without the formal approval of Saudis.
Benjamin Netanyahu and Prince Mohammed Al Nahyan brokered the agreement
with U
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After
Mohammad Bin Salman takes over, the country might move towards full
normalization of relations with Israel. What is also interesting is that
representative Arab bodies have not protested the move, as was expected, which
gives the impression that such a strategy must have been long in the making.
The only whimper of protest one heard was from Turkey and Egypt and ironically
both these countries already have normal relations with Israel.
What
explains this turn of events? Commentators have been quick to point out that
falling oil revenues will make it difficult for these Arab states to finance
their countries, as oil revenues make up nearly half of all revenues. The UAE
has already moved towards a service economy and experiments in rest of the Arab
kingdoms are pointing towards this trend. The fall in oil revenues will
directly affect daily provisions of citizens in these countries. The way in
which the partly rentier economies of Arab states have worked is that nearly
forty percent of all revenues generated have gone into making people’s lives
better. From free education and health to subsidized housing and low cost of
living, Arab states have seen to it that their citizens are not
‘inconvenienced’ in any way. On the other side of the bargain, citizens are not
supposed to raise uncomfortable questions on the nature of state or even the
lifestyles of these Arab monarchs. This ideological and de-politicised entente
between Arab rulers and their people sustained itself because of the oil boom and
the money that it brought. That honey moon might be getting over soon.
Palestinians gather to protest a deal between the United Arab Emirates
(UAE) and Israel to normalize ties in Gaza City, Gaza on August 19, 2020.
Photo: AFP Forum via Anadolu Agency/ Mustafa Hassona
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In order to
generate more revenue, these states will have to start taxing their citizens.
Raised on the notion and practice that the monarch must provide to maintain
their standard of life, that prices should be low and essential services should
be free, it will be exceedingly difficult for Arabs to adjust to this new
order. This will certainly lead to social discontent and questions will be
raised regarding the legitimacy of the monarchy. Let us not forget that the
legacy of Arab spring has not died down, that its impact is still being felt
countries like Tunisia. Let us also not forget that Arab spring toppled
seasoned dictators and those horrifying images must have shocked some of these
monarchs. Let us also not forget that the Arab spring coincided with a rise in
prices of essential commodities across Arab states, something which might
repeat itself in the future.
In
normalizing relations with Israel, these Arab states are taking the long term
view of how to effectively deal with any future protest that might erupt on
their soil demanding a representative government and rule of law. Israel, with
its technology, will be a valuable ally to crush any such future dissent.
Through the years, Israel has developed surveillance technologies which it has
put to effective use in targeting Palestinians and their legitimate rights. Not
just within Palestine, but this technology has been put to effective use in
varied contexts such as Xinjiang and Venezuela. In trying to mollycoddle with
Israel, it becomes increasingly clear that what the Arab states fear the most
is the possible uprising of their own population.
This
realignment of forces in West Asia is also designed to make Iran the prime
enemy. Discourses will be manufactured as to how Iran, because of its nuclear
ambitions, has become a clear and present danger for the world. The Americans,
through their blunder in Iraq, have already made Iran much more powerful than
it ever was. Post the Iraq war, Iran now wields considerable influence in Iraq,
Yemen and Lebanon. The people of Bahrain are largely sympathetic to the Shite
regime in Iran. In the emerging scenario, when the Arab states are seen as
abandoning the ‘Palestinian cause’, there is a very real possibility that
Iranian popularity in the region is only going to increase. This will again
become extremely worrisome for Arab states, as whatever the flaws, Iranians
elect their own government, as opposed to the corrupt monarchical rule under
which most of the Arabs live. Nothing will be more disastrous for these Arab
monarchs if Iran becomes the aspirational model for the people of West Asia.
Again, the potential growing clout of Iranians can only be put down
successfully by having an ally which has experience in such ‘small wars’.
The West
and Israel do not want democracy in the Arab world. That’s why they were deeply
involved in bringing back the military regime in Egypt. For years, they have
become accustomed to doing business with select monarchs, who they believe are
a force of stability in the region. They are probably correct to assume that in
a democratic Arab world, the general mood and sentiment will remain against
them. This alliance between Arab states and Israel is an attempt to put
together an infrastructure of domination in order to keep Arab populations in
check. The memory of people taking over the streets hasn’t faded yet, and there
is no reason to believe that people will not reclaim those streets once again.
Some of the Arab monarchs were clearly not prepared to handle the first time it
happened; those that remain definitely want to be better prepared this time.
Arshad
Alam is columnist with NewAgeIslam.com
URL: https://newageislam.com/islam-politics/behind-israel-arab-deal-monarchs/d/122909
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