UP Muslims May Vote For BJP In 2024 Lok Sabha Elections - To Shift Loyalty From Traditional Religious Block To Sub-Caste Identities
By
Syed Ali Mujtaba, New Age Islam
24 February
2024
An
electoral survey Mapping Muslim voting behaviour for the 2024 Lok Sabha
elections, says Muslim voting behaviour is gravitating toward the BJP, and the
vote share of the saffron party vis-à-vis Muslims may go up.
This survey
was carried out by Feyaad Allie a post-doctoral fellow in the Government
Department at Harvard University. He travelled across eighteen districts in
eastern, central, and western Uttar Pradesh. The sample included 1,468 Muslims
who identified as Pasmanda (OBC and Dalit) and 480 who identified as General or
Upper Caste. Additionally, the Hindu sample of the survey included 355 Hindus
identifying as Upper Caste, 1,180 identifying as OBC, and 389 identifying as
from the Scheduled Castes.
The survey
that was conducted in 2024, revealed that in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Muslims
are going to shift their loyalty from its traditional religious block and may
vote on their sub-caste identities which may bolster the chances of the BJP in
the 2024 general elections.
The survey
disclosed that till 2012, only a small percentage of Muslims voted for BJP
candidates but by 2017, the percentage increased, with nearly 12.6% of general
Muslims and 8% of Pasmanda Muslims voting for the BJP.
The survey
remarks that Muslim voting behaviour is influenced by the presence (or absence)
of a co-ethnic representative in the electoral fray. It’s from this behaviour
it can be inferred that Muslim representative can activate internal divisions
among Muslims that may shape their subsequent voting pattern. These divisions
can manifest along sub-identities within the broader Muslim identity, according
to the survey.
It says a
range of factors appear to shape Muslim voting behaviour. First Muslims vote
according to their state’s electoral context like how many parties are
contesting. How many Muslim candidates these parties are fielding prospects to
lure the Muslim votes which results in the division of Muslim votes in
multipolar contests?
The survey
did a comparative study of Muslim voting behaviour in the state assembly
elections after the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, suggesting some consolidation of
Muslim votes has been registered.
In the 2020
Bihar elections, about 77% of Muslims voted for the Mahagathbandhan, 75% for
the Trinamool Congress in the 2021 West Bengal elections, and 79% for the
Samajwadi Party in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh elections.
The survey
reveals that in the 2022 state elections, 9.8% of general Muslims supported the
BJP, whereas 9.1% of Pasmanda Muslims supported the BJP.
The entire
text of the survey can be accessed from this link- https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/02/09/mapping-muslim-voting-behavior-in-india-pub-91579
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Syed Ali
Mujtaba is a journalist based in Chennai.
URL: https://newageislam.com/current-affairs/up-muslims-bjp-vote-traditional-religious-sub-caste/d/131790
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