New
Age Islam Special Correspondent
16 December
2020
The
countdown for the 2021 Bengal Assembly elections has begun and speculations
about the prospects of different political parties in the polls are being made.
Surveys have been conducted. The participation of the AIMIM is almost final.
And this has raised the concern of the secularists as they fear that the AIMIM
will eat into the secular votes and pave the way for the victory of the BJP.
The policy
of the AIMIM has been to work for the consolidation of its base in Muslims
irrespective of whether it harms the secular parties or helps the BJP. So long
as the AIMIM gains, everything is fine for them.
But one
fact should be kept in mind that the AIMIM has made it clear that it will stick
to a Muslim centric politics and does not believe in Dalit-Muslim politics
which Maulana Salman Nadvi suggested to Owaisi recently. So, Owaisi will field
his candidates only in the constituencies where the Muslims form a decisive
population. It has already started campaigning in the Muslim-dominated
impoverished region of Murshidabad.
Therefore,
like in Bihar the AIMIM will field candidates only in Muslim dominated
constituencies of Murshidabad, Birbhum and Kolkata districts and even may win
some seats.
But it will
not field candidates in all the 294 seats of the state as it knows that it will
lose deposits in those constituencies as it did in Pranpur in Bihar.
So even the
AIMIM causes the division of secular votes, it will do so in only a dozen of
seats.
But the
case of the Congress and the Left is confusing. They have formed an alliance
that claims to fight both the ruling TMC and the BJP. The Congress has 23 seats
in the currently Assembly and the Left Front led by CPIM has only 24 seats. The
Congress has ruled the state for 25 years and the Left Front has ruled the
state for 33 long years. But during the last two elections they have been
almost decimated by the TMC.
Since they
have been the ruling party before the TMC took over, they will field their
candidates in all the 294 constituencies. But going by their mass base at the
moment, they have their hold only in about 50 seats. During the last five years
both the parties have not been able to salvage their image and there is no wave
in their favour. Therefore, an increase in their seats is not expected in these
elections.
So, in most
of the constituencies, they will only cause a division of secular votes
benefitting only the BJP. The majority will either vote for the TMC or the BJP.
The pocket vote of the CPM and the Congress will go to them causing a division
of anti-BJP votes.
Therefore,
the alliance of the Left and the Congress may be the vote cutters in the
forthcoming elections. The changed political situations due to the rise of the
BJP in the state and the entry of the AIMIM in the poll fray has not made any changes
in the poll strategy of the Left, the Congress and even the ruling TMC. The
secular voters will be confused by the three secular parties as the three have
their loyal voters who will not change their choices against the BJP while the
BJP voters will face no such dilemma.
URL: https://newageislam.com/current-affairs/left-cong-combine,-aimim,-play/d/123773
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