Improvement in Intra-Gulf Cooperation Council Ties Is a Positive Development for India
By
Navdeep Suri
Jan 08,
2021
THE smile
and the hug with which Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) received
the Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim Al Thani on January 5 spoke volumes of the
shifting sands in the Gulf. Arriving for the 41st summit of the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC), this was the Qatari leader’s first visit to Saudi
Arabia in three-and-a-half years. His arrival was preceded by an announcement
from Nayef al Hajraf, the Kuwaiti Secretary General of the GCC, that Saudi
Arabia had agreed to reopen its airspace as well as land and sea borders to
Qatar. The presence of the Egyptian foreign minister at the summit and the
relatively positive sounds emanating from Abu Dhabi suggest that a thaw is
underway.
Good tidings: Any improvement in intra-Gulf Cooperation Council ties is
a positive development for India. Reuters
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It was on
June 5, 2017, when a hitherto dormant Arab Quartet comprising Saudi Arabia, the
UAE, Bahrain and Egypt dropped the bombshell that they had decided to break
diplomatic, trade and travel links with Qatar. I was among the diplomats called
to the foreign office in Abu Dhabi the following day for a briefing on the
provocations from Doha that had forced the Quartet to take this unprecedented
step. In the initial days, there was lack of clarity on the ramifications of
the embargo and a couple of days later, I found myself back in the foreign
office to argue that the closure of UAE airspace for flights to Doha had
complicated matters for Indian carriers flying between India and Qatar. The
additional flying time meant that they had to curb the baggage allowance of
passengers! The UAE side was courteous and said that they had no intention of
affecting the interests of friendly countries like India. The following day, it
was clarified that UAE airspace was only closed to Qatar Airways and that other
airlines could continue to fly as before.
The Al Ula
summit and developments preceding it have important implications for the Gulf,
the larger West Asia region and India too.
First, it
is clear that President Trump and his senior adviser Jared Kushner have
achieved substantial success in altering the geopolitical map of the region.
After the Abraham Accords that have led to normalisation of ties between Israel
and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco and to Israeli PM Netanyahu’s ‘secret’
visit to Saudi Arabia on November 22, 2020, the GCC thaw is another feather in
Kushner's cap. In stark contrast to Trump’s flailing about the election
results, Kushner has stayed focused on his objective. He visited Riyadh and
Doha on November 29 to script the outlines of a deal, worked the phones to iron
out the wrinkles and bring the reluctant Emiratis on board and was very much in
attendance at Al Ula. The quiet diplomacy pursued by Kuwait also contributed to
the outcome. As the Biden administration prepares to forge its policy towards
Iran, it will be presented with a somewhat more united GCC as part of the new
equation.
Second, the
summit provides indications of the gradual evolution of MBS from the region's
enfant terrible to a more seasoned statesman who is trying to get a handle on
the Yemen and Qatar disputes so that he can focus on the bigger picture. Fewer
distractions in the neighborhood will allow him greater latitude in
implementing his ambitious agenda of social and economic reforms within the
country. They also enable him to regain Saudi Arabia’s traditional primacy in
the Muslim world by weakening the Turkey-Iran-Qatar axis which had been gaining
some momentum. This might mean that Saudi Arabia's own interest in ties with
Israel will remain on the back burner for some more time.
Third,
Qatar can claim some kind of moral victory for having withstood the pressure of
unilateral sanctions brought upon it by the Quartet. In June 2017, the Quartet
had specified a set of 13 conditions that Doha must meet for relations to
return to normal. These included demands to curb diplomatic ties with Iran; end
support to ‘terrorist groups’ like the Muslim Brotherhood and Hezbollah; shut down
Al Jazeera and news outlets like Al Araby Al Jadeed and Middle East Eye;
terminate Turkish military presence in Qatar, etc. As of now, there is no
evidence that Qatar has conceded any of these demands, although it may make
token gestures over the next few months — if only to improve the optics in the
run-up to the FIFA World Cup that it will host in November-December 2022.
Fourth, the
UAE would have reason to be unhappy over the turn of events precisely because
Qatar has neither indicated a review of its ties with Iran and Turkey nor
visibly backed down from the support that it has provided to various Islamist
groups. For now, the Emiratis have found it prudent to go along with the US and
Saudi priorities. This preserves the strategic nature of the close personal
relationship between MBS and UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed. But it would
be premature to expect an early rapprochement between the UAE and Qatar.
Within the
UAE, the emirate of Dubai would eagerly wait for trade and travel restrictions
to be removed. The embargo on Qatar had an adverse effect on Jebel Ali port and
also impacted the substantial Qatari investments in Dubai. Any move towards
normal business ties would improve the investment climate for Dubai and give a
bit of a boost to the ambitious Dubai Expo 2020 that will now open in October
2021.
As the GCC
states step up their vaccination drives and start to come out of the shadow of
Covid-19, India would hope that the economic recovery facilitates the return of
Indian expatriates to the Gulf. The resumption of normal trade ties would also
help several major Indian and NRI-owned business groups which had seen their
markets shrink as a result of the embargo. Ashok Leyland has a bus assembly
facility in the UAE but had to lose out on export orders to Qatar. Dabur found
itself in a similar situation since its ‘Made in UAE’ products could no longer
be sold in Doha. The travel restrictions also made it difficult for many
Dubai-based NRI-owned businesses to service their clients in Doha, with Muscat
emerging as an alternative meeting point.
On the
diplomatic front, India has been careful to nurture its ties with Doha, even as
our relations with the UAE and Saudi Arabia showed a dramatic upswing. External
Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has recently visited Doha and Prime Minister Modi
has spoken on the phone with Sheikh Tamim to encourage greater investments in
India by the Qatar Investment Authority. India would also hope that influential
Qatar-based media outlets like the Arabic channel of Al Jazeera tone down their
anti-India rhetoric and stop looking at issues like Jammu and Kashmir from an
overtly Islamist angle. Overall, any improvement in intra-GCC ties is a
positive development from an Indian perspective, particularly if it is also
accompanied by a moderation in Qatar’s religion-driven agendas.
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Navdeep
Suri is Former ambassador to UAE
Original
Headline: Qatar thaw a sign of shifting sands in Gulf
Source: The Tribune