Abraham Accord and India’s PoK Plans
By
Seshadri Chari
21 August,
2020
The
agreement between Jewish Israel and the United Arab Emirates, known as the
‘Abraham Accord’ that has been brokered by the Christian US, holds little hope
for the divided Middle East unless a true change of heart occurs among the
followers of the three Abrahamic faiths. This uncertainty offers India a window
of opportunity to not only participate in the common business platforms but
also widen the scope and scale of the emerging security arrangements in the
Middle East, which can have far-reaching and positive significance concerning
any action plan on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).
PM Modi with King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud in Riyadh | PTI photo
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But even
before the ink could dry, the UAE-Israel agreement has run into controversy on
the Palestinian issue. The UAE has interpreted the reference in the relevant
clause to mean an “immediate end” to Israeli plans to annex areas in the West
Bank under its control. The Israeli officials have stuck to the word “suspend”
to suggest negotiations with Palestine would continue.
Naturally
then, New Delhi will have to study the accord, go into the background details
and deeply ruminate over the likely fallout of the agreement in the Indian and
regional context, especially in the emerging post-Covid-19 world order. The
Palestinian cause has been relegated to the background in the wake of economic
meltdown, falling demand for oil, and rising joblessness due to the coronavirus
pandemic.
Moreover,
this emerging non-Arab coalition would like to see the back of the US in the
Arab world. But the Arab solidarity is not yet a thing of the past and it is
too early to conclude that the US has vacated the Middle East.
FILE - Hamas supporters protest against Israel's plan to annex parts of
the West Bank and US President Donald Trump's Mideast initiative, at the
Palestinian side of Erez checkpoint between Israel and Gaza, in Beit Hanoun,
Gaza Strip, July 9, 2020.
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The
post-Covid-19 world order is likely to be very different from what it appears
to be now. New Delhi should prepare itself for an enhanced and more active role
in the new and emerging geopolitical architecture.
So Far
So Good
It helps
that when the Trump administration was moving its embassy in Tel Aviv to
Jerusalem, India was continuing with its “neutral posturing” with a view to
balance its strategic engagement with the US and Israel and the economic and
energy security pacts with the Arab World.
China,
meanwhile, formalised its ‘four-point’ position on the Israel-Palestine
conflict as enumerated by President Xi Jinping in his July 2017 speech with a
close resemblance to India’s position of calibrated balancing with a realist
approach to national interest. Interestingly, Pakistan has refused to toe the
Arab big brother’s line in recognising Israel.
Invoking
Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah, Pakistan Prime Minister, in a veiled
reference to the UAE, has said that “whatever any country does we cannot ever
accept Israel as long as Palestinians are not given their rights”. What is
important to note is his reasoning that (if Pakistan accepted Israel and
ignored the oppression of the Palestinians), “we will have to give up Kashmir
as well then”.
Seen in
this context, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made all the right moves so far.
Breaking
all taboo, Modi in 2017 became the first Indian prime minister to visit Israel.
India-Israel defence trade is likely to touch the $20-billion mark with India
becoming one of the core countries to be dealing with the high-powered defence
ministry department SIBAT in Israel. The best part of Modi’s balancing act was
revealed when the Arab world took notice of the immense opportunities in India
and signalled its readiness to work on trade and investments. More importantly,
the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)’s refusal to allow a stand-alone
meeting on Kashmir issue signals a new era of understanding of New Delhi’s
position.
But
Delhi Needs To Watch Out
One
significant subject in the Abraham Accord is the increased security cooperation
between Israel and the UAE against regional threats. Needless to say, the three
parties to the accord have a common adversary in Iran. The Trump administration
recently seized three Venezuela-bound Iranian oil tankers, with both countries
facing heavily punitive sanctions by the US.
Given the
effect of US sanctions and its strict implementation, the increased clout of
the new partners in the Middle East and elsewhere and the emerging new
alliances between China and Iran and Iran-Turkey-Malaysia, New Delhi has to go
back to the drawing board for a fresh policy formulation.
China is
deeply entrenched in Gwadar and the Indian Ocean region. Tehran is having
serious rethink over India’s role in the Chabahar Port project. Turkey, which
has threatened to recall its ambassador from Abu Dhabi, is busy forging a new
non-Arab Islamic alliance to include Pakistan and Malaysia to achieve its dream
of reviving the Khilafat-2, especially at a time when a section of the Arab
world seems to be distancing itself from the Palestinian cause while cosying up
to Israel. In the event of this non-Arab Islamic coalition gaining ground, it
would be interesting to see which way Beijing tilts and what this portends for
New Delhi and the region.
The
economic catastrophe brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic is probably posing
a real challenge and forcing new and hitherto unexpected alignments that will
impact India seriously.
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Seshadri
Chari is a member of the National Executive Committee of the BJP and former
editor of Organiser. Views are personal.
Original
Headline: Israel-UAE deal can boost India’s PoK plans. Modi just needs to keep
the balancing act on
Source: The Print