Current Affairs
The offer of Arab nations to participate in the military operation against the regime of Col Muammar Gaddafi has taken many experts by surprise. The United Arab Emirates is sending at least 24 fighter jets to help enforce the UN-mandated no-fly zone over Libya, while Qatar has pledged six. I’ve heard from sources that Egypt plans to supply Libyan rebel forces with small arms, and that Jordan and Saudi Arabia have offered logistical and intelligence support. There are also unconfirmed reports that elite fighting units from several more Arab countries have arrived in eastern Libya to assist the rebel forces. Saudi Arabia, whose Air Force is among the strongest in the region, could play an even more active role if needed. During Desert Storm, General Khaled bin Sultan, the eldest son of the Saudi king, explained that it was easy to integrate his country’s air units with the main coalition force as Saudi Arabia’s military doctrine, training methods, weapons and combat capabilities are compatible with those of the United States and UK. He was also impressed by the coalition’s “brilliant array of modern aircraft weapons, some of which have never been used in combat before.”-- Yelena Suponina
As for cricket diplomacy, we may recall that it was initially the initiative of General Zia-ul-Haq, who went to Jaipur to watch an India-Pakistan cricket match in 1987. A couple of years later, of course, events in Kashmir totally spoiled the pitch on which the two countries were playing their diplomatic games. And since relations between out two countries have been a roller-coaster, there was this spectacle in 2004 when Rahul Gandhi, possibly a future prime minister of India, and his sister Priyanka came to Karachi in March 2004 to watch a cricket match. During the same Indian tour, Lahore presented a show of love and friendship between cricket lovers of the two countries that is truly memorable. Then, General Pervez Musharraf was in New Delhi in April 2005 to watch Pakistan rout India in a one-day played at the Feroze Shah Kotla ground. And his visit was marked by some unprecedented declarations of friendship. I was there at that time and it was a very festive occasion. Manmohan and Musharraf went so far as to talk about borders eventually becoming irrelevant. There were hints that the Kashmir puzzle was about to be solved. -- Ghazi Salahuddin
What a country, Pakistan is? The Chief Minister of Punjab remains absent from funeral services of Chief Executive of his province on threats of Islamic elements who issued decree that Governor Salman Taseer is “Murtid” after commenting on blasphemy law and Muslims should not participate in funeral of Murtid. The head of Pakistan Peoples Party and President of Pakistan Asif Zardari not bothered to attend last rituals of his dedicated party leader. It seems as “Stay in Rule” is only motive of political parties and Pakistani leaders, for which humanity is on sale also.
The Pakistani Christians were surprised on silence of Federal Minority Minister Shahbaz Bhatti after his appointment from Pakistan People’s Party PPP. There were always directives from President House in print and electronic media for Federal Minister Shahbaz Bhatti like “Go to Gojra” “Go to Sialkot to visit family of martyr Danish Robert” “Go to Lahore to help murdered housemaid Shazia” “Go to Karachi to meet raped Christian Student Nurse” which created impression that Federal Minority Ministry is run from President House not by Shahbaz Bhatti. We see a big change in statements of Shahbaz Bhatti now, he is put on helm to face blasphemy law saviors while Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani has openly announced not to amend or revise blasphemy laws. -- Nazir S Bhatti
Libya’s government announced an immediate cease-fire on March 18, a day after the U.N. Security Council approved a no-fly zone over the North African country. The move complicates European efforts to spearhead a campaign against Libyan government troops. Assuming Tripoli follows through on its declaration, the effect on operations against the Libyan rebels remains in question. -- Stratfor
The collapse of the democratic revolution in Libya will also gravely damage the prospects of the ‘Arab uprising’ elsewhere. Rulers in other Arab countries where the Army is also largely made up of foreign mercenaries (Bahrain and several other Gulf states, for example), will conclude that they can safely kill enough of their own protesters to ‘restore order’. How can this disaster be prevented? Condemnation from abroad, including from the Arab League, will not stop Col Gaddafi. An arms embargo is too slow-acting, as are economic boycotts and freezing Libyan Government assets overseas. Col Gaddafi is fighting for his life, probably literally, and he knows that if he wins, the embargoes, boycotts and asset freezes will eventually be lifted. Libya has oil, after all. -- Gwynne Dyer
We debated the Davis incident and challenged each other’s understanding of who betrayed whom over the past 30 years. Then we stepped back and found that we agreed on a set of clear, urgent priorities: bring more honesty to the security dialogue between our governments, broaden and deepen the ties among our people, and build new partnerships in sectors where we have complementary strengths and needs. We focused first on education, agriculture and governance. Pakistan’s public education system needs reform, but it has exceptionally innovative leadership and success in charter and independent schools. Independent and quasi-charter schools across the country are serving more than six million students. Our Pakistani and US educators plan to work together in both countries to improve and expand public-private partnerships, while maintaining teaching quality. -- Syed Babar Ali and Wendy Chamberlin
There is something new and fascinating underway here -- a phenomenon of popular action that renders any historical comparisons inadequate. Western stereotypes have long served an important (and often violent) purpose: reducing the Arabs while propping up Israeli, British and American invasions in the name of "democracy", "freedom" and "liberation". Those who held the "torch of civilisation" and allegedly commanded uncontested moral superiority gave themselves unhindered access to the lands of the Arabs, their resources, their history, and most of all their very dignity. Yet those who chartered the prejudiced discourses, defining the Arabs to suit their colonial objectives -- from Napoleon Bonaparte to George W Bush -- only showed themselves to be bad students of history. -- Ramzy Baroud
Registered initially as a society, Jamia became a deemed university in 1962. All these years it retained its status as a minority institution. In 1988, it became a central university by which time it had established its major faculties and departments including engineering, education, history, social work, fine arts, natural sciences, and its famous mass communication school. At that time it had roughly 50% Muslim students. Today, 23 years after becoming a central university, it still has roughly the same number of Muslim students. Therefore, it is firstly important to grasp that the ruling does not change anything: it formalises the status quo. In an educational context where Muslims are worryingly under-represented, Jamia has historically provided a path to secular higher education to thousands of young, underprivileged provincial Muslims who receive their school education in the traditional style, in maktabs and madrassas. It has also made singular contribution to the education of Muslim girls in whose case parents would be reluctant to send them elsewhere. Today, one of the glorious achievements of the university is that within its campus one frequently sees groups where girls in hijab mix easily with all others. -- Najeeb Jung
Indeed, as Cohen points out, Pakistan’s proliferation record was not good in the past. But that was the past; today it is as good as that of any other country. In fact, it is better considering that the other day an American bomber flew across the US with an unsecured nuclear weapon in its hold undetected by those meant to monitor such weapon movements. In any case, Washington has on numerous occasions said it was satisfied that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are adequately secured. If Cohen believed his own government he would presumably not list the safety and security of our nuclear weapons among the foremost reasons for his prognosis of Pakistan’s eventual collapse. And if he does not believe Washington, the good news is that others do. The other factors listed by Cohen for Pakistan’s fast accelerating decay are more plausible, such as the consequences that lie in store lest we fail to address our economic woes and, of course, the demographic ‘time bomb’. -- Zafar Hilaly
The Iranians clearly benefit from an uprising in Bahrain. It places the U.S. 5th Fleet’s basing in jeopardy, puts the United States in a difficult position and threatens the stability of other Persian Gulf Arab states. For the Iranians, the uprisings in North Africa and their spread to the Arabian Peninsula represent a golden opportunity for pursuing their long-standing interest (going back to the Shah and beyond) of dominating the Gulf. The Iranians are accustomed to being able to use their covert capabilities to shape the political realities in countries. They did this effectively in Iraq and are doing it in Afghanistan. They regarded this as low risk and high reward. The Saudis, recognizing that this posed a fundamental risk to their regime and consulting with the Americans, have led a coalition force into Bahrain to halt the uprising and save the regime. Pressed by covert forces, they were forced into an overt action they were clearly reluctant to take. --- George Friedman
Indeed, Bahraini security forces have been ruthless in their attacks against demonstrators, killing six. Given this alignment of forces, and the bloodshed that has already occurred in Manama's Pearl Square, the scenes from Cairo of protesters arm-in-arm with soldiers and hugging tank crews are unlikely to be replayed here. Moreover, whereas in Egypt, historically a stable country, 18 days of chaos were enough to convince the military to restore order by ousting Mubarak, Bahrainis have greater experience with social unrest than Egyptians or Tunisians do. Political instability is a way of life in Bahrain. From the turmoil in the 1920s, following administrative reforms, to labour protests in the 1950s, the country is accustomed to agitation. As a result, factional strife is unlikely to panic the rulers and is even less likely to persuade them that the king must abdicate to save the country. -- Barak Barfi
In the run-up to the IAEA's crucial board meeting, the U.S. believed that India was "engaged in a risky balancing act in its Iran policies." A cable sent off on September 2, 2005 (39738: confidential) noted: "While the GOI has no illusions about Iran's nuclear ambitions or support for terrorism, these concerns are subordinate in its foreign policy and economic considerations. New Delhi does, however, fear the consequences of being forced to choose between Iran and the US... if the nuclear standoff escalates. Against this danger, India sees Iran as an enormous actual and potential energy supplier, and a balancing power on Pakistan's opposite border. Thus, Indian policy tries to advance its interests with Tehran, appease the West, and largely ignore the looming crises." The challenge for Washington was to get India off the fence, especially when this would be seen in India as siding with the U.S. "An op-ed by a reliably anti-American reporter for The Hindu on September 1 encouraged the GOI to stand by Iran as the 'litmus test' of India's willingness to pursue an ' independent' foreign policy," the cable noted. -- Siddharth Varadarajan
Nik Gowing’s book, Skyful of Lies and Black Swans qualifies as a modern-day primer for today’s practitioners of political science across the divide from democracy to dictatorship to understand the “new art of war.”
Stephen Stern holds Nik Gowing’s analysis as daunting but completely dispelling. “Information now travels around the world so fast and in such quantities that all kinds of organisations – governments, businesses – are struggling to respond fast enough or effectively enough. As a result, there is a new vulnerability, fragility and brittleness of power which weakens both the credibility and accountability of governments, the security organs and corporate institutions. This often occurs at the height of a crisis, just when you need clarity from senior executives. No matter that the information – noise – which is being spread may be inaccurate, or only partly true. Leaders have to respond, and faster than used to be necessary. The new core challenge is the tyranny of the timeline.” Awash in money and resources and complacent about the expanse of their power, the Arab regimes were not geared to cope with the blinding speed with which information dissemination acted in the upheavals. -- Ikram Sehgal
In an interview with Taysir Alluni, head of the Al Jazeera network in Kabul, Osama bin Laden had said on October 20, 2001, “At that time (the war in Afghanistan during 1980s), the Soviet Empire was a mighty power that scared the whole world.” Stating that the Soviet Empire had become “a figment of the imagination”, he had added, “So the one god, who sustained us with one of his helping hands and stabilised us to defeat the Soviet Empire, is capable of sustaining us again and allowing us to defeat America on the same land (Afghanistan)... So we believe that defeat of America is something achievable — with the permission of god — and it is easier for us — with the permission of god — than the defeat of the Soviet Empire previously.”-- Hiranmay Karlekar
To put Libya in the same basket of other ‘revolutions' would be a mistake.
It's a slap that echoed around the world — and without exaggeration, struck fear in the hearts of dozens of regimes across it. Every cliché from ‘forest fire' to ‘dominos' to a ‘house of cards' has been used in the past weeks to describe what's happened in West Asia ever since 24-year-old Mohammed Bouazizi was pushed around by a policewoman in Tunis. The slap was reportedly the final straw of humiliation for the vegetable seller, already weighed down by inflation and the responsibility of caring for his mother and six brothers and sisters. Bouazizi protested in the most horrific way imaginable, setting himself on fire. That fire grew unbelievably quickly and within a couple of weeks claimed Tunisian President Zinedine Ben Ali's position and forced him and his family out of the country. -- Suhasini Haidar